Is Shattenkirk really available?

[EastonBlues22]

With regards to the conversation about Shattenkirk's ES production, I prefer big pictures if we're discussing a player's baseline ability. Individual seasons are better than a subset of the games they contain, but multiple seasons are better still. Bigger numbers even out the highs and lows.

Since 2012-13 through the present, Shattenkirk is tied for 25th in the league in ES points per 60 minutes of play (with Mike Green and Roman Josi), minimum 1000 minutes played to qualify, playoff games inclusive. That's tied for 25th out of 243 qualifying defenders.

I firmly believe Pietrangelo is better at ES, and I'm not here to argue that Shattenkirk could sustain that page regardless of his role/usage. Generally speaking, though, I think we're picking nits if we're complaining about Shattenkirk's abilities at ES. The man can obviously produce in that situation the way he's used here, and historically he's produced at a very good rate.

If the Blues pay up for Shattenkirk, it won't be for how he would perform on a different team or in a different role. It will be for how he's performed here in his current role, which obviously would not be changing. What he's done, and what he's likely to do moving forward, is definitely worth $6 million (IMO). He's an impact player.

 

[Alklha]

But which team would be interested and able to get him under cap knowing Shattery will get ~7mill.$AAV contract?

Shattery don't have NTC yet so when it hits on his trade will be even harder to make and value will go down. Is there possibility to give him extension before July 1st, day what I assume his NTC will come to affect and then try trade him? I really don't know how these things goes.

Shattenkirk doesn't have any NTC in his current contract.

If we sign him to an extension, he'll likely get a full NTC immediately. So we aren't going to be able to sign him, then look to trade him to maximise his value.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Shattenkirk doesn't have any NTC in his current contract.

If we sign him to an extension, he'll likely get a full NTC immediately. So we aren't going to be able to sign him, then look to trade him to maximise his value.

Wouldn't the NTC not take affect until that contract actually is in affect, starting in 2017?

 

[Alklha]

Wouldn't the NTC not take affect until that contract actually is in affect, starting in 2017?

Not anymore. The new CBA includes a provision to allow NTC's to take effect when an extension is signed, because of what the Flyers done. You have to imagine that will be completely standard now. A team that wants to wait until to start of the new deal for the NTC to start will have a player that is wanting to wait to sign.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

This notion of a Shattenkirk sign and trade seems to have grown a life of its own. Shattenkirk should seek a NMC, and most likely will get one with his next contract. But if that's the case, he would do better to become UFA and choose for himself where to go.

There needs to be some incentive for him to sign with St Louis. Either longer term or more salary than he expects elsewhere, or else a NMC that he can expect some stability to where he lives. But his job isn't to try and help the Blues move him for a good return.

I think a sign and trade is very unlikely.

 

[Chojin]

With regards to the conversation about Shattenkirk's ES production, I prefer big pictures if we're discussing a player's baseline ability. Individual seasons are better than a subset of the games they contain, but multiple seasons are better still. Bigger numbers even out the highs and lows.

Since 2012-13 through the present, Shattenkirk is tied for 25th in the league in ES points per 60 minutes of play (with Mike Green and Roman Josi), minimum 1000 minutes played to qualify, playoff games inclusive. That's tied for 25th out of 243 qualifying defenders.

I firmly believe Pietrangelo is better at ES, and I'm not here to argue that Shattenkirk could sustain that page regardless of his role/usage. Generally speaking, though, I think we're picking nits if we're complaining about Shattenkirk's abilities at ES. The man can obviously produce in that situation the way he's used here, and historically he's produced at a very good rate.

If the Blues pay up for Shattenkirk, it won't be for how he would perform on a different team or in a different role. It will be for how he's performed here in his current role, which obviously would not be changing. What he's done, and what he's likely to do moving forward, is definitely worth $6 million (IMO). He's an impact player.

I agree with most of this. Obviously, my assessment used a very limited time period in a difficult season for Shattenkirk, and his even strength numbers during his Blues career have been very good, aside from his inexcusable penalty differential. The problem is that none of his comparables (second pairing, offensive-oriented defensemen who play soft minutes) are making $6m a year. His closest comparables are probably Ellis, Yandle, and Leddy. Yandle makes $5.25m (impending UFA), Leddy $5.5m, and Ellis $2.5m. Leddy proved that he was a decent first-pairing option for the Islanders, and he's only making $5.5m, so I don't see how Shatty, who looked legitimately out of place on the first pairing, deserves to make more. He may be able to get than on the open market, but that doesn't mean he's worth it.

 

[Ranksu]

My bad I looked wrong St. Louis NTC list.

So if Shattery gets traded his value will be very low. He would go undervalue like Oshie did?

 

[EastonBlues22]

I agree with most of this. Obviously, my assessment used a very limited time period in a difficult season for Shattenkirk, and his even strength numbers during his Blues career have been very good, aside from his inexcusable penalty differential. The problem is that none of his comparables (second pairing, offensive-oriented defensemen who play soft minutes) are making $6m a year. His closest comparables are probably Ellis, Yandle, and Leddy. Yandle makes $5.25m (impending UFA), Leddy $5.5m, and Ellis $2.5m. Leddy proved that he was a decent first-pairing option for the Islanders, and he's only making $5.5m, so I don't see how Shatty, who looked legitimately out of place on the first pairing, deserves to make more. He may be able to get than on the open market, but that doesn't mean he's worth it.

Well, they may be comps at ES, but they sure aren't on the PP.

Shattenkirk is #2 in the world over that span (min 100 minutes PP time, 138 qualifiers) behind Mr. Ghost, who obviously has yet to show he can do it over multiple years. Shatty's at 6.42 points per 60 mins of PP time (254 games), Ghost is at 6.58 (46 games), and #3 is Gelinas at 5.64 points per 60 minutes. That's a pretty huge gap from #2 to #3.

Yandle is at 4.86, Leddy at 4.03, and Ellis at 2.79. Shattenkirk's PP production is 32% to 130% greater than that group. That helps teams win games, so obviously there's additional value there.

Yandle might be the closest comparison to Shattenkirk offensively, but Yandle is not a great comp defensively. His puck management, decision making, and positional play are all inferior to Shattenkirk's, IMO. Shattenkirk is just a better, more well-rounded player.

The guy I keep coming back to as a potential comp is Rafalski. He was another difference maker that you would never want pulling traditional #1 duty, but he was more well-rounded than he was given credit for and he played an absolutely vital role on multiple Cup winning teams.

Shattenkirk's a part of the solution, not a part of the problem. If we move him, we need to be getting back something else that's part of the solution. Maybes aren't good enough for me.

 

[Chojin]

Well, they may be comps at ES, but they sure aren't on the PP.

Shattenkirk is #2 in the world over that span (min 100 minutes PP time, 138 qualifiers) behind Mr. Ghost, who obviously has yet to show he can do it over multiple years. Shatty's at 6.42 points per 60 mins of PP time (254 games), Ghost is at 6.58 (46 games), and #3 is Gelinas at 5.64 points per 60 minutes. That's a pretty huge gap from #2 to #3.

Yandle is at 4.86, Leddy at 4.03, and Ellis at 2.79. Shattenkirk's PP production is 32% to 130% greater than that group. That helps teams win games, so obviously there's additional value there.

Yandle might be the closest comparison to Shattenkirk offensively, but Yandle is not a great comp defensively. His puck management, decision making, and positional play are all inferior to Shattenkirk's, IMO. Shattenkirk is just a better, more well-rounded player.

The guy I keep coming back to as a potential comp is Rafalski. He was another difference maker that you would never want pulling traditional #1 duty, but he was more well-rounded than he was given credit for and he played an absolutely vital role on multiple Cup winning teams.

Shattenkirk's a part of the solution, not a part of the problem. If we move him, we need to be getting back something else that's part of the solution. Maybes aren't good enough for me.

Nobody is saying that Shattenkirk is part of the problem. Is the team better with him on it? Definitely. But I don't see how you can pay a guy Pietrangelo money to get spoon-fed easy minutes at even strength and only really excel on the power play, especially when he plays by far our strongest positional organizationally. For christ's sake, Gomez is 16th in P/60 on the powerplay (5.81 to Shatty's 7.08) over the last three seasons, and we had him for near the league minimum on a two-way contract.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Nobody is saying that Shattenkirk is part of the problem. Is the team better with him on it? Definitely. But I don't see how you can pay a guy Pietrangelo money to get spoon-fed easy minutes at even strength and only really excel on the power play, especially when he plays by far our strongest positional organizationally. For christ's sake, Gomez is 16th in P/60 on the powerplay (5.81 to Shatty's 7.08) over the last three seasons, and we had him for near the league minimum on a two-way contract.

I'd argue that being 25th out of 243 is excelling at ES as well, but whatever.

If we're arguing about who is most expendable of our 3 RHD, then I'd agree Shattenkirk is the most expendable. I'm just seeing a lot of posts that, IMO, understate his value (both in a vacuum, and to this organization). He's not some super-sheltered 2nd pairing PP specialist that's a train wreck defensively, and that relies on soft minutes to do anything. He's obviously miscast in a shut-down role, but he can play neutral minutes and drive play just fine. He's generally played very well against strong competition, both during the regular season and in the playoffs.

There's a saying that familiarity breeds contempt, and I think a lot of people here have reached that point with Shattenkirk. There's too much focus on what he's not, and a lot of what he does (really well, I might add) is being taken for granted. That's what I'm pushing back against.

 

[Celtic Note]

I'd argue that being 25th out of 243 is excelling at ES as well, but whatever.

If we're arguing about who is most expendable of our 3 RHD, then I'd agree Shattenkirk is the most expendable. I'm just seeing a lot of posts that, IMO, understate his value (both in a vacuum, and to this organization). He's not some super-sheltered 2nd pairing PP specialist that's a train wreck defensively, and that relies on soft minutes to do anything. He's obviously miscast in a shut-down role, but he can play neutral minutes and drive play just fine. He's generally played very well against strong competition, both during the regular season and in the playoffs.

There's a saying that familiarity breeds contempt, and I think a lot of people here have reached that point with Shattenkirk. There's too much focus on what he's not, and a lot of what he does (really well, I might add) is being taken for granted. That's what I'm pushing back against.

And I would say you have every right to push back. Shatty is a catalyst for this team and a true difference maker. His playoff stats speak for themselves.

The moment we trade him, everyone and their brother will realize what we are missing and start clammoring for an OFD. Quickly they will realize that we have no internal option to fill his shoes and that the external ones are extremely expensive.

I have also noted before that if we don't move Shatty, then any hopes at having any shot at a #1 center are gone, baring a Stamkos signing. Regardless, those options will hurt some way or another. It will either be contract costs or creating a hole to fill a hole. That said, center is our biggest hole moving forward, unless Fabbri can be that guy.

 

[Dbrownss]

And I would say you have every right to push back. Shatty is a catalyst for this team and a true difference maker. His playoff stats speak for themselves.

The moment we trade him, everyone and their brother will realize what we are missing and start clammoring for an OFD. Quickly they will realize that we have no internal option to fill his shoes and that the external ones are extremely expensive.

I have also noted before that if we don't move Shatty, then any hopes at having any shot at a #1 center are gone, baring a Stamkos signing. Regardless, those options will hurt some way or another. It will either be contract costs or creating a hole to fill a hole. That said, center is our biggest hole moving forward, unless Fabbri can be that guy.

I would disagree to an extent...Schmaltz, Dunn, and Walman would be internal solutions to offensive catalyst. If we moved Shattenkirk for forward help, we'd have to factor in that offense...which is impossible since we don't know who the forward is. We only know what it's like to be without Shattenkirk, but no added offense up front.

 

[Celtic Note]

I would disagree to an extent...Schmaltz, Dunn, and Walman would be internal solutions to offensive catalyst. If we moved Shattenkirk for forward help, we'd have to factor in that offense...which is impossible since we don't know who the forward is. We only know what it's like to be without Shattenkirk, but no added offense up front.

Schmaltz will never produce like Shatty. He just doesn't have that talent. Even if he can make it to the NHL soon, I see a 35 ish point D men at his very peak. Dunn and Walman are good, but still years away.

 

[Dbrownss]

Schmaltz will never produce like Shatty. He just doesn't have that talent. Even if he can make it to the NHL soon, I see a 35 ish point D men at his very peak. Dunn and Walman are good, but still years away.

I won't project what I see Schmaltz as since I've only seen him in the AHL and wasn't overly impressed...but sample size in my case. Even with losing Shatty..let's just say for argument sake Chiarelli wants Shattenkirk bad and offers 1 of Matthews/RNH/Draisaitl for him with conditions of Shattenkirk signing long term. Moving out Shattenkirk's offense from the back in can be mitigated by Pietrangelo and Parayko...and maybe Schmaltz. Add in a 50+pt forward to the forward group, the team should be better

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Short of Karlsson, Shattenkirk is the best OFD in the league. It's incredibly unlikely we will ever get another OFD (within the next 8 years) that will ever equal that. What Shattekirk has done/is doing is incredibly rare. We would be extremely fortunate if Schmatlz/Dunn/Walman ever come close to his numbers - let alone being able to provide his defense on top of that.

What should be done in the off-season:

1) Let Backes walk unless he'll sign for 5x4, and that's not happening.
2) Make any and all efforts to sign Stamkos to 10.5Mx7
3) Explore an option of Petro for Draisaitl+Laine/Puljujarvi or Matthews+RNH
4) Explore any and all other 1C options via trade.
5) re-sign Shattenkirk

But above all else: get a new coach. No trades should be made until we've done that, and I wouldn't even be opposed to waiting another year to see what we have with a new coach. This team is well constructed and is too good to be this inept at offense. I think under a new coach this team will explode.

 

[BlueDream]

Schmaltz will never produce like Shatty. He just doesn't have that talent. Even if he can make it to the NHL soon, I see a 35 ish point D men at his very peak. Dunn and Walman are good, but still years away.

That remains to be seen whether Schmaltz won't be as good because his college numbers are pretty similar to Shatty's and his AHL numbers also very good, but you may very well be right. Let's say you are. But 35 points from a defenseman is still good, considering Shattenkirk "only" averages about 45. And that's not even counting the points we'll be getting from Parayko in his prime too - I'd wager he'll also probably be at least around there... so basically, the total amount of points we get from our defensemen over the next several years is pretty likely to be higher than what we've been getting from our units the entire time we've had Shattenkirk. Obviously that's not his fault since it's only been him and Petro producing, but the point is that the Blues will be more than okay if Schmaltz and Parayko are "only" putting up around 35 points. Combine that with what Petro will do and you've got three solid producers right there. What team in the NHL can say they get 30+ points from three different defensemen? Not even Chicago has had that since they dealt away Leddy a couple years ago.

When you also throw in Bouwmeester and eventually guys like Dunn, the Blues defense should be just fine. They have so much potential, even without a guy like Shatty, and I'm a huge Shattenkirk fan but the help up front will be worth it, or at least it should be. That's where the Blues are hurting the most and it's unlikely they use Pietrangelo as the guy to solve those needs in a trade. Assuming the rumors eventually come true, Shattenkirk's loss may be felt next year, but I think that will ease shortly after and hopefully our offense is much improved.

 

[Ranksu]

Schmaltz will never produce like Shatty. He just doesn't have that talent. Even if he can make it to the NHL soon, I see a 35 ish point D men at his very peak. Dunn and Walman are good, but still years away.

I'll take it. 35 point wise Dmen behind Pietro and Parayko.

Does he have any skills for PP?

I hope we'll see about him next year before make any bigger
conclusions about his possible potential or lack of it.

 

[Celtic Note]

I'll take it. 35 point wise Dmen behind Pietro and Parayko.

Does he have any skills for PP?

I hope we'll see about him next year before make any bigger
conclusions about his possible potential or lack of it.

He has 2nd PP capabilities. That's about it. I could see Schmaltz simply being another Gunnerson type, with a bit better offense.

Basically I see him as no higher than a #4 guy in his prime. Maybe he has a year or two as a #3, but I highly doubt that.