Is Jimmy Vesey our #1 Prospect?

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Last season, for the first time since 1989 we played a game with 5(!) players we picked in the 1st round: Staal, Kreider, Miller, McIlrath, Skjei.

This was 4 years after our last pick in round 1 (2012). With the addition of Hayes and now Vesey, plus the drafting of Buchnevich, I don't see how us trading those picks affects us

 

[Levitate]

Last season, for the first time since 1989 we played a game with 5(!) players we picked in the 1st round: Staal, Kreider, Miller, McIlrath, Skjei.

This was 4 years after our last pick in round 1 (2012). With the addition of Hayes and now Vesey, plus the drafting of Buchnevich, I don't see how us trading those picks affects us

Well, you could have the players from the draft picks AND Hayes, Vesey, Buchnevich, maybe still Duclair and Saraala or whatever his name is...

That said, they also probably don't make those two deep runs, for what it's worth. It's easy to say "they didn't win, shouldn't have done it" but you're talking purely from hindsight

All that said, Hayes and Vesey and hopefully Buch do help mitigate not having some 1st round picks, as they provide more young players with good potential rather than having no prospects at all

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Well, you could have the players from the draft picks AND Hayes, Vesey, Buchnevich, maybe still Duclair and Saraala or whatever his name is...

That said, they also probably don't make those two deep runs, for what it's worth. It's easy to say "they didn't win, shouldn't have done it" but you're talking purely from hindsight

All that said, Hayes and Vesey and hopefully Buch do help mitigate not having some 1st round picks, as they provide more young players with good potential rather than having no prospects at all

I am more upset about loosing Saarela than Duclair. At least the Duclair trade gave us Yandle who filled a need we had since Leetch left. Without Yandle, we don't even make the play-offs last season. Our PP was the best since the 2005-06 season with Jagr.

What did the Saarela trade bring us? Having Marc Staal play with "M. Staal" on the back, creating more revenue. Bravo

 

[darko]

I am more upset about loosing Saarela than Duclair. At least the Duclair trade gave us Yandle who filled a need we had since Leetch left. Without Yandle, we don't even make the play-offs last season. Our PP was the best since the 2005-06 season with Jagr.

What did the Saarela trade bring us? Having Marc Staal play with "M. Staal" on the back, creating more revenue. Bravo

Absolutely.

 

[Beacon]

Highly skeptical that Graves has #1 potential but I'd be happy to be wrong. He'd be getting a lot more buzz if he was flashing that potential

Was there any buzz around Stepan until he dominated the 2010 WJC? Grachev got much more buzz. I distinctly remember people just being happy he made Team USA. Then he gets the C and everyone's like, "oh wow, really? that's good experience for him." Then he abuses every opponent he faces, looking like a man among boys and everyone realized he was is not someone who may top out as a third liner. Another 10 months later he makes the Rangers and scores a hat trick (and almost the 4th goal too) and it's only then that people realized he could be a true top-6 guy.

If you're not an early pick, people always stay conservative and at most guess that you'll be a middle-6, middle pair player at best.

 

[Edge]

Was there any buzz around Stepan until he dominated the 2010 WJC? Grachev got much more buzz. I distinctly remember people just being happy he made Team USA. Then he gets the C and everyone's like, "oh wow, really? that's good experience for him." Then he abuses every opponent he faces, looking like a man among boys and everyone realized he was is not someone who may top out as a third liner. Another 10 months later he makes the Rangers and scores a hat trick (and almost the 4th goal too) and it's only then that people realized he could be a true top-6 guy.

If you're not an early pick, people always stay conservative and at most guess that you'll be a middle-6, middle pair player at best.

Not necessarily, there are lot of players who one projects as boom or bust --- meaning they either have to make it as a scoring threat, or they probably won't make it at all.

There have also been a number of guys who projected as potential top pairing, first line players --- name Staal, Kreider and Cherepanov.

The shift hasn't necessarily been from the fans perspective, it's been from where the Rangers are drafting and how they're approaching the draft.

McIlrath was a big swing, Miller and Skjei were more conservative picks. There hasn't been a first rounder since.

Duclair was a guy seen with top six potential who fell during his draft year. No one projected a middle role for him. Same with Buch.

It depends on the prospect.

 

[Edge]

But again, Skjei is a year plus two months older than Graves. At this age, it matters. Plus, the Juniors are for 16-20 year olds, while college is for 18-24 year olds. Late teens have key roles on Junior teams, but are usually bench warmers in college (even Kreider was). Skjei playing in college means he got a ton of experience against 21-24 year olds, almost the same as in the minors: The average age of an AHL player to start the season was 24 years and 2 months.

The AHL is a better league than NCAA, but we are talking about playing against physically developed, more mature young men rather than teenage boys whose primary life concern is finding a way to lose their virginity.

I want to see how Graves does this season now that he has had some time playing against adults. The last huge beast with a superstar shot and good mobility who was drafted in the mid-rounds worked out pretty well, but even with Chara, it took him until 21 to make the NHL as a lower-end player, and until 25 to become a star.

I like Graves upside, but I just don't see it as being on that high of a level.

Chara is on his own planet, I don't think we can use him as a measuring stick for Graves.

We'll see how Graves does with his skating, reading, positioning and how his offense comes along. I think all of those attributes have a good shot to get better, but I don't know if I see them getting that much better with time. I think he'll play in the NHL and maybe he will be a star. But any ranking has to take into account potential and results to this point. It's not an exact science.

 

[silverfish]

Buch
Skjei
Graves
Shesty
Vesey

 

[offdacrossbar]

whats real sad is that this site has mcilrath rated as 7th defenseman on list.

talent is 6.0

prob is B

so what thats saying to me is this.

he's already done developing. he is what he is.

prob a 3rd pair guy with less natural talent but more probability of playing. problem is, I'm feeling that playing will occur elsewhere.

would have liked to have gotten more than that out of that high of a pick.

 

[cwede]

whats real sad is that this site has mcilrath rated as 7th defenseman on list.
talent is 6.0
prob is B
so what thats saying to me is this.
he's already done developing. he is what he is.
prob a 3rd pair guy with less natural talent but more probability of playing.
problem is, I'm feeling that playing will occur elsewhere.
would have liked to have gotten more than that out of that high of a pick.

i think you're putting way to much weight on what some writer on a deadline had to churn out. Fact is Dylan may easily spend his prime years in top 4 role

in the past, rule of thumb was D-men aren't really ready, aren't what they will be, until they are at least 25
these are different times, these days many prospects are NHL ready sooner, but that isn't how it goes for every prospect.

i do agree with both your suspicion he may end up establishing his career elsewhere
and the disappointment that it wasn't here

this year will tell a lot
hopefully Beuk on staff gets Dylan opportunity for a bigger role, despite AV being back

 

[NYR Viper]

whats real sad is that this site has mcilrath rated as 7th defenseman on list.

talent is 6.0

prob is B

so what thats saying to me is this.

he's already done developing. he is what he is.

prob a 3rd pair guy with less natural talent but more probability of playing. problem is, I'm feeling that playing will occur elsewhere.

would have liked to have gotten more than that out of that high of a pick.

He's not done developing and when he played, he sure looked like more than a 7th defenseman.

 

[offdacrossbar]

He's not done developing and when he played, he sure looked like more than a 7th defenseman.

perhaps. maybe he improves and he prob will as he plays more games and gets more comfortable feeling like he isn't playing for his life every time he steps on the ice. he doesnt play alot so its hard to gain any mojo. he needs 5-10 games in a row. ill give him that.

however, i fear with av, he won't get that shot to play those minutes and hell be moved out. trust matters and i just dont see that with av. i see himalayas looking to play someone else. thats troubling.

my point was he's 7th on that list, not that he's a 7th guy even though he may well be that this year on this team as its presently constructed.

I've seen some good from him and I've seen some bad.

my problem is still the same thing I've always said. he gets exposed with speed and his decision making sometimes seems both slow and inconsistent. I've always said that being big, and strong and punching hard doesnt mean much of you cant play and think hockey at pace.

brady skjei to me is on the other end of the spectrum from mcilrath. he's both the more polished player and has better skills.

better skater by far.
better puck management
better decision making
better 2 way game
more reliable
not better face puncher.

better dman overall.

 

[Inferno]

I also think Sean Day has significant boom or bust potential as well...i think his upside is seriously that of a true blue elite #1 defenseman...and he could EASILY never play a single minute of NHL hockey....big time gamble...love it.

 

[NYR Viper]

perhaps. maybe he improves and he prob will as he plays more games and gets more comfortable feeling like he isn't playing for his life every time he steps on the ice. he doesnt play alot so its hard to gain any mojo. he needs 5-10 games in a row. ill give him that.

however, i fear with av, he won't get that shot to play those minutes and hell be moved out. trust matters and i just dont see that with av. i see himalayas looking to play someone else. thats troubling.

my point was he's 7th on that list, not that he's a 7th guy even though he may well be that this year on this team as its presently constructed.

I've seen some good from him and I've seen some bad.

my problem is still the same thing I've always said. he gets exposed with speed and his decision making sometimes seems both slow and inconsistent. I've always said that being big, and strong and punching hard doesnt mean much of you cant play and think hockey at pace.

brady skjei to me is on the other end of the spectrum from mcilrath. he's both the more polished player and has better skills.

better skater by far.
better puck management
better decision making
better 2 way game
more reliable
not better face puncher.

better dman overall.

A lot of it is about how the player compliments and plays with someone else. McIlrath is pretty comparable to Adam McQuaid. Adam McQuaid is a top-pairing defenseman for the Bruins.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=76853

Big guys who play that style of game aren't sexy but they win the team games. I think McIlrath is a better player at his age than McQuaid was.

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Gorton have a hand in trading for and developing McQuaid?

 

[Beacon]

Mcilrath was always going to be more a long term project than most prospects and an injury slowed that down further. That said, he improved every year and by last year looked competent unless he faced a superstar. Hopefully he takes another step forward this year and becomes good in every situation, even when he has to defend against Ovechkin and Crosby.

Hes 24, so his development will be slowing down and then ending, but that could happen now or it could happen in 2 years, depending on his work ethic and genetics.

He's very close to being a very good defenseman with a unique skillset. Would be a disappointment if he doesn't get there.

 

[Edge]

Would be a disappointment if he doesn't get there with the Rangers.

The challenge with a player like McIlrath, or any young defenseman for that matter, is that they learn by doing. You have to be willing to live with the mistakes and growth process in order get them where you need them to be.

It's a little easier to do that with a forward, which is why the value for defenseman who hit their stride is high, even if their value doesn't always show up on a state sheet.

 

[Levitate]

I hope that after the "one last kick at the can" season, AV will be willing to let the young players go through more growing pains.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Using the HF grading system as gospel on a player's upside...not something I'd base my analysis on, but that's just me.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Using the HF grading system as gospel on a player's upside...not something I'd base my analysis on, but that's just me.

its just one example of an opinion. like we all have here for various reasons and with a healthy dose of agenda sometimes...

this site rates players. thats what they do. it means nothing really unless it happens to play out like that and then they are maybe lucky or right 50% of the time?

nothing is gospel but if you assume that these opinions are based on seeing the player play and researching that player, it does hold some weight. i mean, these guys supposedly have legit information to base their assumptions and predictions on. they make decisions based on comparable and measurable factors and come to predictive conclusions. its how all talent evaluation goes really. similar to pre draft ratings. same thing.

or it could well be that if the opinion doesnt or does fit your narrative, then you either support it or scoff at it as you did.

when you rate our 1st pick 10th overall in 2010 as our 7th best defensive prospect, that to me, is both a measure of the player and also of the pick. that rating tells me that this player's ceiling is fairly low.

thats disappointing, unless of course you ignore what they wrote because it doesnt fit your narra......um... opinion.

 

[NYR Viper]

its just one example of an opinion. like we all have here for various reasons and with a healthy dose of agenda sometimes...

this site rates players. thats what they do. it means nothing really unless it happens to play out like that and then they are maybe lucky or right 50% of the time?

nothing is gospel but if you assume that these opinions are based on seeing the player play and researching that player, it does hold some weight. i mean, these guys supposedly have legit information to base their assumptions and predictions on. they make decisions based on comparable and measurable factors and come to predictive conclusions. its how all talent evaluation goes really. similar to pre draft ratings. same thing.

or it could well be that if the opinion doesnt or does fit your narrative, then you either support it or scoff at it as you did.

when you rate our 1st pick 10th overall in 2010 as our 7th best defensive prospect, that to me, is both a measure of the player and also of the pick. that rating tells me that this player's ceiling is fairly low.

thats disappointing, unless of course you ignore what they wrote because it doesnt fit your narra......um... opinion.

At what point do we all move on? It's been 6 years.

 

[offdacrossbar]

At what point do we all move on? It's been 6 years.

its a prospect discussion.

we are discussing the ranking of our prospects.

if skjei is a prospect then isn't mcilrath as well ?




TSN SCOUTING REPORT

Assets Is as tough as they come from the back end; he can really throw'em. Has shutdown qualities and is at his best when he plays it simple and safe along the blueline.

Flaws Isn't a natural point producer from the blueline. Can lose his cool at times, and his overall mobility could use improvement. Injuries can also be a factor here.
Career potential Physical depth defenseman with a little upside.

hockeys future report

Future
McIlrath spent the 2015-16 season with the New York Rangers, seeing lower pairing minutes when in the lineup and appearing in 34 of 72 games in his first NHL season. Envisioned as a Scott Stevens-type shutdown defenseman when he was selected with the 10th overall pick in the 2010 NHL Draft, McIlrath is a liability at times against skilled, mobile forwards. He appears headed towards a career as more of physical intimidating third-pairing defenseman.

 

[Beacon]

Last season, for the first time since 1989 we played a game with 5(!) players we picked in the 1st round: Staal, Kreider, Miller, McIlrath, Skjei.

This was 4 years after our last pick in round 1 (2012). With the addition of Hayes and now Vesey, plus the drafting of Buchnevich, I don't see how us trading those picks affects us

If we didn't trade away those 4 first rounders, we would've had 2 of them spent on defensemen (Rangers tend to alternate D and F) and odds are that 1 of them would turn into someone pretty decent by now. Imagine if we had another Skjei but this one was a natural RD. Plus, having Duclair instead of Grabner, and maybe another forward (a first round pick) as an upgrade on Gerbe would put this team in a much stronger position for the present and especially the future.

 

[bearcountry17]

A lot of it is about how the player compliments and plays with someone else. McIlrath is pretty comparable to Adam McQuaid. Adam McQuaid is a top-pairing defenseman for the Bruins.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=76853

Big guys who play that style of game aren't sexy but they win the team games. I think McIlrath is a better player at his age than McQuaid was.

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Gorton have a hand in trading for and developing McQuaid?

Mcquaid has never been top pairing with the Bruins. Even with the lack of competition he only got 18 minutes of TOI(7th among dmen on the Bruins)last season. He's a very good bottom pairing dman and penalty killer but that's it.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Mcquaid has never been top pairing with the Bruins. Even with the lack of competition he only got 18 minutes of TOI(7th among dmen on the Bruins)last season. He's a very good bottom pairing dman and penalty killer but that's it.

and there's your comparable to mcilrath. exactly. 3rd pair guy who kills penalties.

mcquaid is a dependable, physical defensive dman who plays a simple game.

sound familiar ? everything written about mcilrath sounds like the same things written about adam mcquaid.

mcquaid taken 2nd round in 2005 55th overall, sounds about right

mcilrath taken 1st round in 2010 10th overall. not so much.

 

[NYR Viper]

and there's your comparable to mcilrath. exactly. 3rd pair guy who kills penalties.

mcquaid is a dependable, physical defensive dman who plays a simple game.

sound familiar ? everything written about mcilrath sounds like the same things written about adam mcquaid.

mcquaid taken 2nd round in 2005 55th overall, sounds about right

mcilrath taken 1st round in 2010 10th overall. not so much.

ODC, do you yell McIlrath in your sleep?

You are arguing with yourself at this point