TSN: If the NHL drafts in June, Lottery Could be Tweaked in Wings' Favor

[Bench]

Pretty damn valid. Depending on how your playoffs go basically could change your entire list of early draft needs or willingness to trade up/down or even trade for roster players with draft picks.

Would be frustrating as a GM for sure.

 

[ricky0034]

The tease of getting a top-two pick at minimum sucks but that always felt like a pipedream to me.

yeah

pretty annoying just how long this stretched on for though,honestly at this point i'll just be happy to see it over with even if it is 4th overall

12.5% isn't a small chance in my opinion.

Put it this way, the draft lottery happens and one of the play-in teams "wins" first overall. At this point, the teams that lose in the play-in will have a 12.5% chance at first overall. You don't think Montreal would be enticed to drop for those odds? If Montreal beats Pittsburgh, they go and play a team that will most likely eliminate them in the next round. But if Montreal loses to Pittsburgh they still know "oh well, we get a 12.5% chance at getting our French Canadian wonder boy"!

I'm not saying they'd do it, but it makes suffering a "play in" loss more tolerable knowing that you have a 12.% chance at Laf.

especially with the whole neutral location without fans thing

ordinarily even making it to another series they are extremely likely to lose would be pretty enticing for the gate revenue they would get out of having at least 2 Playoff home games,but now? whole lot less to lose there

 

[Lampedampe]

This lottery system confuses me, does this mean that Edmonton and the Leafs have a shot at a lottery pick if they fail to win round robin?

 

[FMichael]

This lottery system confuses me, does this mean that Edmonton and the Leafs have a shot at a lottery pick if they fail to win round robin?

Technically yes, but truth be told I am not certain how the odds will all play out.

June 26th will have the 7 teams who are done for this season their so called 'lotto'...Apparently the odds won't change (as in Detroit will still have only a 18.5% chance to win), but I am not sure as to how it will all unfold from there.

For me the phrase 'clear as mud' applies.

 

[lilidk]

Chicago and one of the NY area teams will slip into the top three again. Ottawa will get the other pick. Wings get fourth.

If it was Holland, I would say the Wings would trade the 4th OA for 7-9 and two seconds, but I don't know what Yzerman will do.

Not sure someone do 3 for 1 at this stuck draft

 

[Lampedampe]

Technically yes, but truth be told I am not certain how the odds will all play out.

June 26th will have the 7 teams who are done for this season their so called 'lotto'...Apparently the odds won't change (as in Detroit will still have only a 18.5% chance to win), but I am not sure as to how it will all unfold from there.

For me the phrase 'clear as mud' applies.

It truly seems like a great system...

On the plus side however, with the draft being after the play-offs i think Yzerman can probably pull off some cap trades during the drafts for more picks.

 

[ricky0034]

part of me really really wants to see Edmonton lose their play-in round and get the first overall just to see the reactions that would cause

 

[Henkka]

2021 Tank for Aatu Räty!

I think Räty is worse than all Top5 forwards in this 2020 draft.

 

[FMichael]

It truly seems like a great system...

On the plus side however, with the draft being after the play-offs i think Yzerman can probably pull off some cap trades during the drafts for more picks.

I seem to recall Yzerman was against the draft being held prior to the end of this season...Maybe it will pay off for us with regards to adding quality prospects?

4 weeks from now will be the lottery...We'll see.

 

[FMichael]

part of me really really wants to see Edmonton lose their play-in round and get the first overall just to see the reactions that would cause

And Toronto, or Buffalo 2nd overall...Man the fans would lose it

 

[Henkka]

I seem to recall Yzerman was against the draft being held prior to the end of this season...Maybe it will pay off for us with regards to adding quality prospects?

4 weeks from now will be the lottery...We'll see.

I hope the cap will come down by 10 million and Red Wings are the only team to have cap space, and can do predatory trades.

Maybe we will win the Cup at 2021.

 

[TCNorthstars]

12.5% isn't a small chance in my opinion.

Put it this way, the draft lottery happens and one of the play-in teams "wins" first overall. At this point, the teams that lose in the play-in will have a 12.5% chance at first overall. You don't think Montreal would be enticed to drop for those odds? If Montreal beats Pittsburgh, they go and play a team that will most likely eliminate them in the next round. But if Montreal loses to Pittsburgh they still know "oh well, we get a 12.5% chance at getting our French Canadian wonder boy"!

I'm not saying they'd do it, but it makes suffering a "play in" loss more tolerable knowing that you have a 12.% chance at Laf.

No, I don’t think they would be enticed lose on purpose. They players playing don’t care about getting a chance to draft 1oa. They care about winning a cup and having one less year in their career to do so.

And where are you getting the 12.5% chance? I’m seeing the 8th team with 6%.

 

[RedWingzz]

No, I don’t think they would be enticed lose on purpose. They players playing don’t care about getting a chance to draft 1oa. They care about winning a cup and having one less year in their career to do so.

And where are you getting the 12.5% chance? I’m seeing the 8th team with 6%.

It's 12.5%.

The lottery is happening before any games are played, therefore teams that are still playing meaningful games (the play-ins) will know if they are in contention for either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd pick. So yes, chances are that one of the bottom 7 teams win the lottery (75.5%), but there is a 24.5% chance that the winner of the lottery is not one of the bottom 7 teams. If this is the case, then the NHL redistributes odds to the 8 play-in losers. The 12.5% comes from there, there are 8 teams each with a 12.5 % chance of winning the selection (wether it be 1st, 2nd or 3rd, all based on the lottery happening on the 26th), (8x12.5=100).

I may not be explaining it well, but the numbers make sense. Bettman mentions this is his video, although I realize his whole video release was a head scratcher in itself.

 

[MBH]

It's probably fair.
It sucks.
For lots of reasons. Mostly, because we're not finding out our fate for another month.

 

[redwings8831]

Tankathon | 2020 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

This was depressing. It took me 11 simulations to get a result I liked...

4th
4th
4th
4th
4th
4th
4th
4th
4th
4th
1st

(Yes, I know, we've known this since forever and it's just how math works...)

Just did it ten times and got 4, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 4

 

[Ezekial]

Just did it ten times and got 4, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 4

Same my first 3 were 4s but then I got 4 1s amd 2 s om the next 7.

That's what makes the lottery so frustrating, you can do a million tankathon sims, but it's just what happens in that one little sim that matters.

 

[GMR]

German national anthem starts playing in the background when Yzerman drafts Stutzle.

Is this Casablanca?

 

[TCNorthstars]

It's 12.5%.

The lottery is happening before any games are played, therefore teams that are still playing meaningful games (the play-ins) will know if they are in contention for either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd pick. So yes, chances are that one of the bottom 7 teams win the lottery (75.5%), but there is a 24.5% chance that the winner of the lottery is not one of the bottom 7 teams. If this is the case, then the NHL redistributes odds to the 8 play-in losers. The 12.5% comes from there, there are 8 teams each with a 12.5 % chance of winning the selection (wether it be 1st, 2nd or 3rd, all based on the lottery happening on the 26th), (8x12.5=100).

I may not be explaining it well, but the numbers make sense. Bettman mentions this is his video, although I realize his whole video release was a head scratcher in itself.

So it looks like it is a 12.5% chance of top 3, not top 1? By your words.

 

[RedWingzz]

So it looks like it is a 12.5% chance of top 3, not top 1? By your words.

No.

If a team outside of the bottom 7 wins the right to draft 1st overall, then that's when it moves on to phase 2. In this case, all teams that lose the play-in will have even odds distributed among them for a chance to win the pick.

It really is confusing, let me try to give you an example.

Let's say they run the lottery, and any other team other than Detroit, Ottawa, San Jose (Ottawa), Los Angeles, Anaheim, NJ or Buffalo wins the lottery, it will then go on to phase 2. In this case, all of the play-in losers each get a 12.5% chance at the pick.

I'm not saying these teams have a 12.5% chance at 1st overall, because that math is incorrect. But, if the lottery winning team is not one of the bottom 7 teams, then all play-in losers split the odds for the pick, and they run a second lottery. There are a total of 8 teams that will become play-in losers, and they would each get 12.5% chance at the pick. The same scenario could happen with the 2nd and 3rd picks, if one of the bottom 7 teams don't win the lottery at those selections as well.

Scenario A:

-Ottawa wins the lottery, they keep the pick
-L.A wins 2nd overall, they keep the pick
-Detroit wins 3rd overall, they keep the pick.

If this was the outcome of the lottery, there would be no need for a second phase of the lottery, because all 3 picks were won by the bottom 7, HOWEVER,

Scenario B:

-Anaheim wins the lottery, they keep the pick
-TEAM TO BE DETERMINED AT A LATER DATE wins the 2nd pick, so then all play-in losers would each get 12.5% chance at this pick.
-Ottawa wins the 3rd lottery draw, they keep the pick

 

[RedWingzz]

This lottery system confuses me, does this mean that Edmonton and the Leafs have a shot at a lottery pick if they fail to win round robin?

Potentially, it all depends on how the draft lottery goes.

So in short, the answer to your question is maybe. Theoretically, yes, teams like Toronto and Edmonton, Chicago, Pittsburgh have a chance at 1st overall (or 2nd or 3rd) if they don't win their series. It's nonsense, I know...

Things will be more clear once they run the lottery, but yes there is a chance that teams will still be competing in the playoffs, and could pick ahead of us.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

We will draft Jake Chelios's kid and it will turn out that #1D talent just skips a generation.

Better chances of that happening that is drafting 1OA

-sigh-

 

[Debrincat93]

save me some time, whats the absolute worst pick we could land? overall wise.... not player

 

[RudeAJV]

save me some time, whats the absolute worst pick we could land? overall wise.... not player

4

 

[Northwing19]

Hockey gods will look down on us have some faith

 

[FabricDetails]

Just did it ten times and got 4, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 4

Same my first 3 were 4s but then I got 4 1s amd 2 s om the next 7.

That's what makes the lottery so frustrating, you can do a million tankathon sims, but it's just what happens in that one little sim that matters.

I'm reminded of the "Time Game" we play with ourselves while at work. I look at my watch and it says 2:00 PM. You guys look at your watches and they say 2:10 PM. You guys are closer to quitting time (what I want to hear) so y'all got the right time.