TSN: If the NHL drafts in June, Lottery Could be Tweaked in Wings' Favor

[Hen Kolland]

No.

If a team outside of the bottom 7 wins the right to draft 1st overall, then that's when it moves on to phase 2. In this case, all teams that lose the play-in will have even odds distributed among them for a chance to win the pick.

It really is confusing, let me try to give you an example.

Let's say they run the lottery, and any other team other than Detroit, Ottawa, San Jose (Ottawa), Los Angeles, Anaheim, NJ or Buffalo wins the lottery, it will then go on to phase 2. In this case, all of the play-in losers each get a 12.5% chance at the pick.

I'm not saying these teams have a 12.5% chance at 1st overall, because that math is incorrect. But, if the lottery winning team is not one of the bottom 7 teams, then all play-in losers split the odds for the pick, and they run a second lottery. There are a total of 8 teams that will become play-in losers, and they would each get 12.5% chance at the pick. The same scenario could happen with the 2nd and 3rd picks, if one of the bottom 7 teams don't win the lottery at those selections as well.

Scenario A:

-Ottawa wins the lottery, they keep the pick
-L.A wins 2nd overall, they keep the pick
-Detroit wins 3rd overall, they keep the pick.

If this was the outcome of the lottery, there would be no need for a second phase of the lottery, because all 3 picks were won by the bottom 7, HOWEVER,

Scenario B:

-Anaheim wins the lottery, they keep the pick
-TEAM TO BE DETERMINED AT A LATER DATE wins the 2nd pick, so then all play-in losers would each get 12.5% chance at this pick.
-Ottawa wins the 3rd lottery draw, they keep the pick

Another way to look at this without complicating it further is the math essentially works out as standard percentages for teams 1-7 and the 8 play in teams end up with 3.0625% each. Thats 12.5% of 24.5%. Their odds aren’t that great individually, but the 12.5% makes it seem that it’s been beefed up.

Some teams, like 15 have increased from 1.0 to 3.0625, but other teams like 8 fall from like 6.5 to 3.0625.

Where I feel people should turn their attention to at this point is how much this potentially harms the kids going to be drafted at the conclusion of the season, which could be in October now. With the early cancellation, I’d think the CHL and other leagues would aim to start at a normal time, and that would likely be before the draft. How do you get those players around player development guys, trainers, coaching staff. We’ll probably see a lot fewer D+1 season jumps in production than in the past, and virtually no players jumping to the NHL in a full time capacity.

 

[RedWingzz]

Another way to look at this without complicating it further is the math essentially works out as standard percentages for teams 1-7 and the 8 play in teams end up with 3.0625% each. Thats 12.5% of 24.5%. Their odds aren’t that great individually, but the 12.5% makes it seem that it’s been beefed up.

Some teams, like 15 have increased from 1.0 to 3.0625, but other teams like 8 fall from like 6.5 to 3.0625.

Where I feel people should turn their attention to at this point is how much this potentially harms the kids going to be drafted at the conclusion of the season, which could be in October now. With the early cancellation, I’d think the CHL and other leagues would aim to start at a normal time, and that would likely be before the draft. How do you get those players around player development guys, trainers, coaching staff. We’ll probably see a lot fewer D+1 season jumps in production than in the past, and virtually no players jumping to the NHL in a full time capacity.

I would think the reasonable solution of this would be to give the high end draft picks some sort of potential opt-out rule stating that, if they are drafted in the top X (take your pick, top 10, top 20, first round) then that player has the right to attend his NHL team training camp and try to win a roster spot for the December (or whenever) start of the 2020-2021 season. Realistically, in any given year there are very few players that make the jump to the NHL from junior. In this draft, obviously Laf is NHL ready, but other than him I don't know which prospect you could pencil into an NHL roster for next year.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I would think the reasonable solution of this would be to give the high end draft picks some sort of potential opt-out rule stating that, if they are drafted in the top X (take your pick, top 10, top 20, first round) then that player has the right to attend his NHL team training camp and try to win a roster spot for the December (or whenever) start of the 2020-2021 season. Realistically, in any given year there are very few players that make the jump to the NHL from junior. In this draft, obviously Laf is NHL ready, but other than him I don't know which prospect you could pencil into an NHL roster for next year.

I like this draft and I wouldn't put another player in the NHL this year from it.

By the time they pick I don't think it will be an option on the European guys with Rossi likely rejoining them, they will have existing contracts in Europe and likely will have an uncontrolled post-draft year. Those guys aren't going to camp in August in Europe and playing for two months and then coming over for a chance training camp. You might have been able to work out some timeline if we knew the draft and things of that nature. But as is, the only guy I would put in the NHL is Lafreniere. I think Byfield can play there next year, I think the best step for his development is one more year in the OHL.

 

[2xJack]

Well, it was fun while it lasted. I'm out. Back to not giving one F about this league. I'll come back if / when the lottery odds are fixed. In the meantime I feel bad for Wings fans, who are now poised to be the new Lions because of perpetually getting screwed in the lottery and never getting a top pick. This system is rigged to keep teams down.

 

[TCNorthstars]

Well, it was fun while it lasted. I'm out. Back to not giving one F about this league. I'll come back if / when the lottery odds are fixed. In the meantime I feel bad for Wings fans, who are now poised to be the new Lions because of perpetually getting screwed in the lottery and never getting a top pick. This system is rigged to keep teams down.

May the weather turn fair for you in the near future.

 

[avssuc]

1) And this rolls into #3 as well. I don't work for E&Y. I have worked in public accounting and with the County government. Why I reacted the way I did is that even if there are bad actors in the accounting sphere, 1) it is dangerous as hell to tar all accountants with that brush. Look what happened with Arthur Andersen as a company as soon as people in general lost faith in their objectivity. They were one of the big guys and had stellar training methods that all of the companies used... but as soon as they lost the faith of the public, they were DOA. So, it's just something that is a very touchy subject when you get into saying "oh, those accounting firms just let their guys run wild." The problem I have is that you have to separate the 2% of bad actors from the 98% of good, honest, rule-following accountants who stake their professional reputations on being competent and having integrity. It hurts me badly when I see the people at the Big 4 firms do shit like this because it calls into questions ALL of us.

2) A couple things on the items. I only specified that those non-financial crimes and/or disgusting employment practices were wholly irrelevant to the company's financial or custodial activities. One was a disgusting, outdated HR-approved training seminar and the other was a sick individual who outside of that illegal kink was probably a competent financial employee. They didn't overlook the activity, as soon as it came out, they terminated the guy. The 9.3 million fine for being too close to their clients is not illegal. It is not illegal to lack indepedence in attestation engagements. It violates AICPA standards as accountants need to be able to maintain independence in the public eye for our word to mean anything. But it isn't a crime. It is very imprudent and that's why they got whacked as hard as they did, but reading that article about the 9.3M, it really came across because a guy on the audit team started dating a member of the client. The independence checks that the firm does at the outset of every engagement asked about familial, close friend, and direct and indirect financial interests, but it did not specifically call out new paramours. So that was at least one of the items.

The tax fraud and the looking the other way on the silver are disconcerting. I would be very interested to see what the firm's engagement letter on the supply chain review of Katoli says. They certainly should have passed on the information to the police since the lead on the audit pointed out that "hey, this is real shady" and his bosses told him no, just kind of push it under the rug.

To finish this answer... I have skepticism of everything. But I look at those activities and I don't see a systematic failure of corruption and criminal activity. The gold thing with EY Dubai is very very shady, I'll grant you that.

The last article you posted is very concerning to me that someone in the public is voicing that opinion and I think that's where my issue came in. That seems to be watering the seeds of insidiousness of accountants being lying shysters for no other reason than "oh, the people who make the rules to oversee accounting firms used to work for accounting firms". It's just as dangerous as someone rolling out a big long article on activities in the margins when it comes to national security.

3) Sorry for reacting as harshly as I did on that. It just read to me more as "EY and by proxy accountants (per the last article) do shady things and people are okay with it." It's not okay when EY does these things. But it also isn't an indictment on the entire company and its structure if bad actors within in do something. I took it to be a direct attack and it wasn't and I'm sorry for that.

4) What 2) I was more getting at with this is that EY has very little to gain from doing nefarious action related to the NHL draft and a whole lot to lose if it came out that they rig it. If they rigged it while saying they didn't, it's basically goodbye EY as a company because that's the public trust eroded away. Maybe the public citizens wouldn't care, but the companies who utilize them for attest services would be very hesitant to work with a known bad actor. It's less that it is criminal to rig something like the NHL draft and more that EY's reputation is at stake when they say "we are verifying the results of this drawing".

On your last point, just because it would be unlawful to rig the lottery if they incorporated under that kind of structure (which I am sure they wouldn't because there would be a shitload of grandfathered policies that they'd have to revisit about being non-profits and anti-trust practices and all that) would not preclude someone from rigging the lottery. 3) It is unlawful to go over the speed limit and yet most people on the roads do that without hesitation. Having an external auditor verify the results is the preferable situation. Basically, EY, even if you assume them to be 100% corrupt, has no financial drive to accept a situation in where the NHL rigs the lottery and they go along with it.

1) I don't recall typing anything close to that.

2) Of course not, that's the whole point of trying to run a credible business above board in the sunlight. Neither the NHL or E&Y are in a hurry to blow up their spot... just like almost every other capital venture, ever. I worked with CID in the Army, so I've seen first hand the lengths people will go to to cover up items big and small. I was involved with a case where 'people' (plural) were murdered to cover up far, far, 'far' less than what's on E&Y's laundry list. Our wars are the real front line of capitalism; Bretton Woods perversion, petrodollar establishment/enforcement, global SDR moves.... all of this clandestine world finance is dictated by military deployments, the proxy puppets that follow, etc.. This boils over into our sport as well, and this is a classic example. I'm fully aware that I may come off very salty to some or most, and the TBI's didn't do my cognitive health and favors, but I want to believe that my skepticism here isn't unfounded. I really don't want to live in a world with different sets of rules for different classes of folks.

Let me ask you this:
If you had a client that wanted you to go-along to get-along on an issue that you knew would hurt their target consumers... and the issue wasn't illegal or forbidden... and you had already signed a confidentiality agreement on the situation... do you blow the whistle? Is it wrong what the client did, even though it broke no laws? Since it hurts the consumer, should there be regulatory efforts to prevent conditions that are ripe for corruption?


3) So instead of having a law that prevents criminal behavior between the NHL and E&Y (or whomever), you'd like to use a firm that has paid the feds hundreds of millions for criminal 'convictions', to put their street cred on the line and 'verify'? I'm sorry, but that's the most backwards approach one can take here, and it really spits in the face of a just society. The NHL could move away from their tax exempt status to close this loophole, but that's not good for the capital interests involved. Neither is a generational superstar drafted in a small TV market, but that's sort of the point here.

Do people place bets on whether or not you or others are going to speed to work? I hope not... and their hypothetical bets have as much to do with the NHL as speeding tickets/laws do. People place bets on the NHL. People also place bets on the WWE (also sports entertainment), so betting on fixed outcomes is already well established and accepted by our law makers/enforcers. I've never placed a bet on sports outside of squares for the SB (and one totally regrettable bet on the Lions), and I think that stuff is crazy. But if folks are taking part, and thus being hosed by clandestine acts, laws need to change.

 

[Retire91]

I imagine how hard it was to get something figured out that everyone agreed upon. So not knocking the effort and conclusion.

I do have some concerns though. Some teams were already locked into the playoffs I feel like those teams should already be excluded from the round robin. I think the teams that were statistically likely to secure their spot should have also been automatically includeded. The round robin should have been all the bubble teams. I think the league did it this way to hype the event by including top teams but if I was a fan of one of those top teams I would be kinda pissed.

The lottery should also be staggered. The teams that are mathematically already eliminated from the playoffs should be the only ones in the lottery. It would be hella stupid if a top team loses the round robin and then gets like a second overall pick.

They could have fixed these loopholes with a tiering system on both ends

It would be funny if there was a reverse lottery. The playoff teams were decided by lottery with your place in the standings as your odds and the wings got in.

 

[RedWingzz]

Just reading the title of this thread makes me feel sick...

Can we just delete it to get it out of our memories lol