If either Kucherov or MacKinnon win the Art Ross - they should definitely also win the hart trophy. Do you agree?

[um]

Alas, I no longer get to watch enough every year to truly know who was or was not robbed.

It certainly seems as though more goalies should have won over the years though, given their massively higher total events versus a skater

I agree with you.

But these days goalies don't even start that many games any more. It's hard to be the MVP sitting out 25% of your teams games. Last season Ullmark won the Vezina with 49 games played!

 

[I am Bettman]

Oilers were a bottom 5 team when Mcdavid wasn’t fully healthy, and he turned them into a top ten or better team once he was back to 100%. There is not one player in the league that contributes more to their team’s success.

 

[authentic]

I agree with you.

But these days goalies don't even start that many games any more. It's hard to be the MVP sitting out 25% of your teams games. Last season Ullmark won the Vezina with 49 games played!

Plus goalies can’t score and no goalie is winning the Vezina on a horrible defensive team let alone the Hart

 

[HolyHagelin]

I agree with you.

But these days goalies don't even start that many games any more. It's hard to be the MVP sitting out 25% of your teams games. Last season Ullmark won the Vezina with 49 games played!

Yeah that is nuts, gotta be on the ice to get the hardware

 

[Regal]

Oilers were a bottom 5 team when Mcdavid wasn’t fully healthy, and he turned them into a top ten or better team once he was back to 100%. There is not one player in the league that contributes more to their team’s success.

It wasn’t just McDavid though, the goaltending was bad and the team wasn’t cohesive. Since the team started their first 8 game win streak on November 24th, the Oilers are at 56% GF% with McDavid off the ice 5v5, compared to the Avs at 49% with MacKinnon off the ice and the Bolts at 43% with Kucherov off the ice. Also, you can’t ignore the time he wasn’t fully healthy. That was part of the season. This has certainly been the case in the past, but I don’t think the Oilers are relying on him more this season than Tampa is Kucherov or Colorado is MacKinnon. He’s obviously still hugely important, but they’ve been a strong overall team since the coaching change.

 

[DFC]

Yes - not just because they scored the most points tho.

Kucherov for instance has been carrying the load for Tampa offensively. Hes nearly 43 points ahead of second place on his team and 51 ahead of third. Without him, Tampa probably isn't in a. playoff spot.

It's also a question of just how much the team needs his offense. Without him outscoring their defensive woes, they'd have been cooked by December.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

It’s such a great Art Ross race this year, I can support the Hart going to the winner.

However the hockey media have already declared that a certain good ole Canadian boy is due and “this is his year”. They’ve probably already engraved the trophy.

 

[SillyRabbit]

I have a feeling that MacKinnon is winning the Hart no matter what happens.

Personally I would give the Hart to Kucherov if he wins the Art Ross, but I don't think the voters will.

Obviously if MacKinnon wins the Art Ross, he takes the Hart as well.

McDavid has a shot to take the Art Ross simply because he's McDavid, but I think MacKinnon would still win the Hart in that scenario.

 

[Midnight Judges]

A 2 or 3% difference in points is likely not much of a significant difference-maker to their team. At that point our precision is exceeding our accuracy. In that hypothetical the points are close enough to a tie that other factors probably ought to be decisive - be it goals, defense, penalty killing, physicality, etc.

 

[McVespa99]

What happens when neither of those guys win the Art Ross?

 

[wetcoast]

In my opinion - both players are having absolutely tremendous, and historic seasons. If someone had told any of you in the off-season both those players would be pacing for 140+ points, I don't think anyone would have believed it.

Colorado has been a stronger team overall, but both teams are now well positioned for playoffs, and both players have been an instrumental part in their team's successes.

The have both flip-flopped on scoring lead a few times in the last couple of months. As of this morning, Kucherov is ahead by only 1 point, but also has a few other advantages going for him (more games left, and especially much easier schedule with a lot of easy opponents).

I know many posters here in the past few months have said MacKinnon should get preferential treatment for hart because he's never won one and is "owed" one. Or because he's a center, which can be more valuable than a winger.

Flipside - a lot of posters have said Kucherov should get preferential treatment because he stands much taller as the best player on his team this year vs MacKinnon (who has Makar close, and arguably Rantanen too).

In my opinion - with only ~13-14 games to go - whichever one of those two players win the Art Ross should also win the Hart Trophy. Do you agree?

I would hate for politics or biases or other factors to determine the winner. They've both had amazing seasons, very comparable, and I think whichever of the 2 manages to win the Ross should be the differentiator at this point for winning the Hart.

Please post what you think - if you agree with this, or if you think either/or player should win the hart even if they lose the Ross. Feel free to share thoughts on McDavid or others too.

While I get what you are saying about "historic scoring seasons" what if scoring is still going on an upward climb?

Anyways Mack is winning the Hart and is first on my ballot.

 

[McVespa99]

And no matter what happens going forward Mac is winning it. Good Canadian boy that has had a good career but has almost no personal hardware. Voters will be itching to give it to him...

 

[dirtydanglez]

mack should get the hart

 

[Chips]

I’m torn. Kucherov probably deserves it after that stat breakdown someone did in another thread. Way more points against the top 5 teams of each conference AND his team is worse


But I won’t be mad if MacKinnon wins it. He arguably should have one already

 

[daver]

Oh man the mental gymnastics here are amazing. MacKinnon should win the Hart because he doesn't allow gluten during the season - you heard it here first.

Agree, it is even debatable that gluten-free is even healthy.

 

[Regal]

What happens when neither of those guys win the Art Ross?

Why are we talking about next year already?

 

[daver]

In my opinion - both players are having absolutely tremendous, and historic seasons. If someone had told any of you in the off-season both those players would be pacing for 140+ points, I don't think anyone would have believed it.

How are they historic?

 

[VinikToWinIt]

In the last 10 seasons, the Art Ross winner has won the Hart 7 times.

The exceptions:

1. 2015 - Scoring was atrocious, and Carey Price dominated the league.
2. 2018 - Taylor Hall wins with 93 points against McDavid with 108. Hall leads the next scorer on his team by a whopping 41 points, drags his mediocre team to the playoffs in a wildcard spot.
3. 2022 - Matthews puts up 60 goals for the first time in a decade, wins the Hart with 106 points to McDavid's 123.

Going back 1 more season, Art Ross winner Marty St. Louis lost the Hart to Ovechkin. The Lightning had missed the playoffs.

This year, Mackinnon seems to be the consensus media pick despite (at the moment):

• Fewer points in more games
• A 1-goal difference
• Leading Colorado's 2nd scorer by 24 points, to Kucherov's 43
• Playing on a team 1 point behind 1st in the conference, while Kucherov is on a wildcard team

I'm scrambling to find tangible reasons why MacKinnon deserves it if the scoring is close and the Lightning make the playoffs (outside of being a due, Canadian, former 1OA center), but it feels like Kucherov will need a 10 point lead to take it home.

All due respect to MacKinnon who is having a monster season, but what Kucherov is doing is far more valuable to his team.

 

[DFC]

In the last 10 seasons, the Art Ross winner has won the Hart 7 times.

The exceptions:

1. 2015 - Scoring was atrocious, and Carey Price dominated the league.
2. 2018 - Taylor Hall wins with 93 points against McDavid with 108. Hall leads the next scorer on his team by a whopping 41 points, drags his mediocre team to the playoffs in a wildcard spot.
3. 2022 - Matthews puts up 60 goals for the first time in a decade, wins the Hart with 106 points to McDavid's 123.

Going back 1 more season, Art Ross winner Marty St. Louis lost the Hart to Ovechkin. The Lightning had missed the playoffs.

This year, Mackinnon seems to be the consensus media pick despite (at the moment):

• Fewer points in more games
• A 1-goal difference
• Leading Colorado's 2nd scorer by 24 points, to Kucherov's 43
• Playing on a team 1 point behind 1st in the conference, while Kucherov is on a wildcard team

I'm scrambling to find tangible reasons why MacKinnon deserves it if the scoring is close and the Lightning make the playoffs (outside of being a due, Canadian, former 1OA center), but it feels like Kucherov will need a 10 point lead to take it home.

All due respect to MacKinnon who is having a monster season, but what Kucherov is doing is far more valuable to his team.

Yeah, it's the Taylor Hall case, basically. I think it might be affected by the media's perception of TB as a perennial juggernaut, which to anyone who is watching (obviously not the media), is clearly not the case this year. TB's defense and goaltending have been so atrocious that the fact that they are in a wildcard spot right now is a minor miracle. Probably not even that minor.

The trophy has historically been given to the player most valuable to his team, but it seems like the voters will change that when they would rather just give it to someone else.

 

[Regal]

In the last 10 seasons, the Art Ross winner has won the Hart 7 times.

The exceptions:

1. 2015 - Scoring was atrocious, and Carey Price dominated the league.
2. 2018 - Taylor Hall wins with 93 points against McDavid with 108. Hall leads the next scorer on his team by a whopping 41 points, drags his mediocre team to the playoffs in a wildcard spot.
3. 2022 - Matthews puts up 60 goals for the first time in a decade, wins the Hart with 106 points to McDavid's 123.

Going back 1 more season, Art Ross winner Marty St. Louis lost the Hart to Ovechkin. The Lightning had missed the playoffs.

This year, Mackinnon seems to be the consensus media pick despite (at the moment):

• Fewer points in more games
• A 1-goal difference
• Leading Colorado's 2nd scorer by 24 points, to Kucherov's 43
• Playing on a team 1 point behind 1st in the conference, while Kucherov is on a wildcard team

I'm scrambling to find tangible reasons why MacKinnon deserves it if the scoring is close and the Lightning make the playoffs (outside of being a due, Canadian, former 1OA center), but it feels like Kucherov will need a 10 point lead to take it home.

All due respect to MacKinnon who is having a monster season, but what Kucherov is doing is far more valuable to his team.

I don’t see how anyone can say Kucherov is far more valuable without bias or pretending the parameters for success are simply making the playoffs instead of being the best team possible. The difference in their offensive production is negligible, and MacKinnon is the better play driver. Production relative to their teams’ total offense is only slightly in Kucherov’s favour (the lead over second place is a poor metric), and both of them improve their team’s a similar degree compared to without them on the ice.

 

[Regal]

Yeah, it's the Taylor Hall case, basically. I think it might be affected by the media's perception of TB as a perennial juggernaut, which to anyone who is watching (obviously not the media), is clearly not the case this year. TB's defense and goaltending have been so atrocious that the fact that they are in a wildcard spot right now is a minor miracle. Probably not even that minor.

The trophy has historically been given to the player most valuable to his team, but it seems like the voters will change that when they would rather just give it to someone else.

No, it’s been historically given to the best player, which is why it frequently goes to the Art Ross winner (it’s easy to say the most productive is the best). Most valuable relative to their team has been the exception, and is the Hall example. This year their production is nearly identical though, so it will likely go to who is considered the better player, which seems to be MacKinnon. The closest example of this year (at least between these two), is the 94-95 season, where Jagr and Lindros tied for the points lead, but Jagr won the Art Ross with a couple more goals, and Lindros won the Hart for being a better overall player outside of production.

 

[DFC]

No, it’s been historically given to the best player, which is why it frequently goes to the Art Ross winner (it’s easy to say the most productive is the best). Most valuable relative to their team has been the exception, and is the Hall example. This year their production is nearly identical though, so it will likely go to who is considered the better player, which seems to be MacKinnon. The closest example of this year (at least between these two), is the 94-95 season, where Jagr and Lindros tied for the points lead, but Jagr won the Art Ross with a couple more goals, and Lindros won the Hart for being a better overall player outside of production.

I guess that's why Sidney Crosby won so many Hart Trophies while being unanimously considered the league's best player for most of his career.

 

[Mr Kot]

I think most media people have telegraphed that it's going to MacK. Would be strange for them to take a 180 and choose someone else at this point. I also have MacK, but I can see the argument for Kucherov.

 

[Wrath]

The current odds on fanduel (which one of the more up-to-date sources, a lot of the results from googling are a week+ old) are as follows (percentages are the "implied probability")

Hart:
-220 (69%) MacKinnon
+470 (18%) Kucherov
+490 (17%) McDavid

Art Ross:
-150 (60%) Kucherov
+200 (33%) MacKinnon
+600 (14%) McDavid

TL;DR: The Vegas money/handicappers have Kucherov as twice as likely to win the Art Ross as MacKinnon, but MacKinnon is almost 4x as likely to win the Hart as Kucherov (or McDavid).

I agree with what some people have said/suggested where likely Kuch or McDavid would have to beat MacKinnon by 10 points or more to win the Hart over him due to the "voter fatigue/due" effect.

_____

Personally speaking, I hope MacKinnon just wins the AR anyways so there's less possible controversy.

 

[Regal]

I guess that's why Sidney Crosby won so many Hart Trophies while being unanimously considered the league's best player for most of his career.

What? Best player as in best player that season. Hart is based on the season at hand and games played matter. What season did Crosby play like the best player and play a full season where he didn’t win the Hart? Crosby’s best player title was based more on consistency at the top and the fact that he was great when he did play during his injury years. Just like Hedman was largely considered the best defenseman in the league in polls from the year he won his Norris until Makar had his big year in 2022, but he only won one Norris in that time frame.

For the most part relative value is ignored unless it’s close or the best player misses the playoffs. Here I think both are close as players (with slight edge to MacKinnon), and close in terms of relative value (with slight edge to Kucherov). If neither had won before, it could go either way and I wouldn’t be surprised. I think any talk that Kucherov would be clearly ahead if it weren’t for MacKinnon’s pedigree and home country is nonsense. It’s really the fact that MacKinnon hasn’t won that is going to push a close race over the edge in his favour