Post-Game Talk: Ice is fine, Wings not so much

[Red Stanley]

I think the point is two fold.

1. He is not absent like you said.
2. He wants to keep the streak alive.

If ownership proves they want to keep the steak alive, wouldn't it be in the best interest of the GM to take the resources given and do what you can (without mortgaging the future) to keep the streak alive?

You don't even need specific numbers to prove your point. It's pretty self-explanatory when you look at the big picture. The DRW are making money. As a business, there's little incentive to drastically alter strategies in the short-term, until your profit margin dips below an anticipated and acceptable line. I'm fairly sure they employ economists who can make such projections. The current goal (that being the extension of the streak) was known to be unsustainable for much longer than a few more years. Hockey experts and fans have been predicting its demise for years and guess what, the organization's estimate has been more correct than theirs. Maybe it ends this year, maybe it doesn't. Still lots of hockey remains to be played. Regardless, ownership and management aren't clueless to the limits, capabilities and inner workings of their own team. As people have pointed out they've been integrating the draft talent much faster than before, which would indicate an attempt at transition. Some would argue it's not nearly fast enough and that's a legitimate point of view to have. Still, it's happening. They're testing to see if they have a workable core to replace the old one. If the answer is no, a hardcore rebuild will take place. The Helm and Abdelkader signings to me look like examples of rewarding work ethic, same as putting Glendening on scoring lines and the PP. They're sending a message to the potential new core. Whether the message is being received, or even affecting anything in a positive way, is another point of contention.

Considering all this, the only way an argument for Holland being inept or stupid would make sense is if a board meeting circa 2012 concluded that the Wings could go through a hardcore rebuild, continue making similar money for the duration and come out competing for the Cup in 5-7 years. Then Holland stood up and said "no, keep your hands off my playoff streak" and everyone else, including ownership, piped down. It's possible, but very hard to believe. My personal conclusion as an outside observer is that he tried to do everything - continue the streak, transition/rebuild on the fly, maintain a steady revenue flow - at once and ultimately the product on the ice suffered.

 

[Dotter]

Dotter, have you seriously missed my post regarding revenue twice, or are you just choosing to ignore it for some reason?

I'll have to look and see if detroit are top 10 in league for highest grossing team. They pay what, 6% if they are?

So that's maybe $600,000 out of 6.1 million per game?

So that's like saying someone should go on public assistance because they don't want to pay taxes. Seems like a pretty weak argument

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

When I say stuff like this, you call it "words". When you make baseless statements it's "clearly" facts. Interesting how that works

Fact: Franchise is making money
Fact: Playoff streak is a huge selling point to earning big money
Fact: Ken Holland still has a job
Fact: Club is making efforts to not purposely tank

How much you think Mike Illitch values money vs winning, and how much I think Mike Illitch values money vs winning is probably far apart. But I think you are completely wrong that Mike Illitch isn't paying attention and can't multi-task. I think he is very well aware of the situation and I think the situation is by his own direction.

And I think the billion dollar new arena proves he cares about the future of the club. But right now, he is focused on ROI while the cash cow is still flowing gold.

Unless you've got some extensive data and research to back it up, the playoff streak is a huge selling point to earning big money is not a fact.

 

[Dotter]

Unless you've got some extensive data and research to back it up, the playoff streak is a huge selling point to earning big money is not a fact.

Well, did the Wings sell out tickets back in the "dead things" era? I heard they had to give away cars to sell tickets back when they were not good.

Do you think fans are just better fans now to the point they'll keep buying out tickets? I personally don't think people will want pay to see a losing team.

 

[Dotter]

You don't even need specific numbers to prove your point. It's pretty self-explanatory when you look at the big picture. The DRW are making money. As a business, there's little incentive to drastically alter strategies in the short-term, until your profit margin dips below an anticipated and acceptable line. I'm fairly sure they employ economists who can make such projections. The current goal (that being the extension of the streak) was known to be unsustainable for much longer than a few more years. Hockey experts and fans have been predicting its demise for years and guess what, the organization's estimate has been more correct than theirs. Maybe it ends this year, maybe it doesn't. Still lots of hockey remains to be played. Regardless, ownership and management aren't clueless to the limits, capabilities and inner workings of their own team. As people have pointed out they've been integrating the draft talent much faster than before, which would indicate an attempt at transition. Some would argue it's not nearly fast enough and that's a legitimate point of view to have. Still, it's happening. They're testing to see if they have a workable core to replace the old one. If the answer is no, a hardcore rebuild will take place. The Helm and Abdelkader signings to me look like examples of rewarding work ethic, same as putting Glendening on scoring lines and the PP. They're sending a message to the potential new core. Whether the message is being received, or even affecting anything in a positive way, is another point of contention.

Considering all this, the only way an argument for Holland being inept or stupid would make sense is if a board meeting circa 2012 concluded that the Wings could go through a hardcore rebuild, continue making similar money for the duration and come out competing for the Cup in 5-7 years. Then Holland stood up and said "no, keep your hands off my playoff streak" and everyone else, including ownership, piped down. It's possible, but very hard to believe. My personal conclusion as an outside observer is that he tried to do everything - continue the streak, transition/rebuild on the fly, maintain a steady revenue flow - at once and ultimately the product on the ice suffered.

All very good points.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

I'll have to look and see if detroit are top 10 in league for highest grossing team. They pay what, 6% if they are?

So that's maybe $600,000 out of 6.1 million per game?

So that's like saying someone should go on public assistance because they don't want to pay taxes. Seems like a pretty weak argument

Huh? Are you talking about revenue sharing?

 

[Henkka]

You don't even need specific numbers to prove your point. It's pretty self-explanatory when you look at the big picture. The DRW are making money. As a business, there's little incentive to drastically alter strategies in the short-term, until your profit margin dips below an anticipated and acceptable line. I'm fairly sure they employ economists who can make such projections. The current goal (that being the extension of the streak) was known to be unsustainable for much longer than a few more years. Hockey experts and fans have been predicting its demise for years and guess what, the organization's estimate has been more correct than theirs. Maybe it ends this year, maybe it doesn't. Still lots of hockey remains to be played. Regardless, ownership and management aren't clueless to the limits, capabilities and inner workings of their own team. As people have pointed out they've been integrating the draft talent much faster than before, which would indicate an attempt at transition. Some would argue it's not nearly fast enough and that's a legitimate point of view to have. Still, it's happening. They're testing to see if they have a workable core to replace the old one. If the answer is no, a hardcore rebuild will take place. The Helm and Abdelkader signings to me look like examples of rewarding work ethic, same as putting Glendening on scoring lines and the PP. They're sending a message to the potential new core. Whether the message is being received, or even affecting anything in a positive way, is another point of contention.

Considering all this, the only way an argument for Holland being inept or stupid would make sense is if a board meeting circa 2012 concluded that the Wings could go through a hardcore rebuild, continue making similar money for the duration and come out competing for the Cup in 5-7 years. Then Holland stood up and said "no, keep your hands off my playoff streak" and everyone else, including ownership, piped down. It's possible, but very hard to believe. My personal conclusion as an outside observer is that he tried to do everything - continue the streak, transition/rebuild on the fly, maintain a steady revenue flow - at once and ultimately the product on the ice suffered.

Great great great post.

And what season is better to fail if you think the economy side?

It's this season. Going full against the cap was signal for season-ticket holders that we are still "pushing", even though Datsyuk left.

Now, if we just said that now we start rebuilding and team will be weak, and there would be another JLA season becoming, team could be playing for an empty arena. That's bad business.

But we have that new building coming. One bad season BEFORE that season, when building himself brings spectators in, is the exact right timing to be bad.

It doesn't affect anything on the business-side expect losing playoff revenues.

Tank for 1 season and that is THIS season. Mini-rebuild on the fly, draft high some future pieces and we'll see where we are at 2017-18.

 

[Dotter]

Huh? Are you talking about revenue sharing?

Based on my understanding of it. I'm not really understanding why you think revenue sharing is that important in the grand scheme of profits. The more you earn, the more you get to keep. It's part of the business.

Great great great post.

And what season is better to fail if you think the economy side?

It's this season. Going full against the cap was signal for season-ticket holders that we are still "pushing", even though Datsyuk left.

Now, if we just said that now we start rebuilding and team will be weak, and there would be another JLA season becoming, team could be playing for an empty arena. That's bad business.

But we have that new building coming. One bad season BEFORE that season, when building himself brings spectators in, is the exact right timing to be bad.

It doesn't affect anything on the business-side expect losing playoff revenues.

Tank for 1 season and that is THIS season. Mini-rebuild on the fly, draft high some future pieces and we'll see where we are at 2017-18.

I don't think a rebuild is going to take 1 season. I figure 5 to 7 season if everything goes right and are incredibly lucky.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Based on my understanding of it. I'm not really understanding why you think revenue sharing is that important in the grand scheme of profits. The more you earn, the more you get to keep. It's part of the business.

So you think revenue sharing and ticket sales are all that determines how much a team is making?

If you don't believe that, then your last post does not address my point.

 

[ColdToiletSeats]

image upload no limit

he's a terrible coach .. Babcock could do way more with this roster.. but whatever everyone on this forum wanted this guy.. I knew he would fail

 

[Henkka]

I don't think a rebuild is going to take 1 season. I figure 5 to 7 season if everything goes right and are incredibly lucky.

It's kind of, you don't know how long that is gonna take.

But 1 season is a start. Draft talent in from better positions. Sell guys for picks to buy more probabilities. If next season is also bad, it takes another season. Draft high again. But you can't plan that length. The success of our draft pick will determine, is it short or long.

 

[Dotter]

So you think revenue sharing and ticket sales are all that determines how much a team is making?

If you don't believe that, then your last post does not address my point.

I do not believe that is what I said? I think what I said was "The more you earn, the more you get to keep. It's part of the business.".

in a nutshell

the NHL CBA includes a base revenue sharing program, which allocates 6% of total league revenue, primarily away from the top 10 revenue-generating teams, to financially struggling teams. The redistribution is intended to distribute the cost of players' salaries

http://iveybusinessreview.ca/blogs/cmcdavidhba2016/2015/03/31/two-minutes-interference/

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Well, did the Wings sell out tickets back in the "dead things" era? I heard they had to give away cars to sell tickets back when they were not good.

Do you think fans are just better fans now to the point they'll keep buying out tickets? I personally don't think people will want pay to see a losing team.

Right, you personally don't think that. So it's your opinion. Not fact.

 

[Flowah]

he's a terrible coach .. Babcock could do way more with this roster.. but whatever everyone on this forum wanted this guy.. I knew he would fail

I particularly enjoyed what Babcock could do with the roster when we still had Datsyuk and a younger Z and Kronwall.

Oops.

 

[Winger98]

Ok first:

You cant compare Abby to 2 guys who are basically injured to the point they are "retired". Abdelkader at minimum is an actual roster player.

and second... Yup you just explained how you can trade these guys.

it is not IDEAL obviously. But a lot of these guys can be moved.

IF you think Abby can't me moved, fine, who cares? He stays on the team. He doesn't hurt a rebuild. Oh you think he will score too much and pull us out of the best picks? Or you tthink his Salary is going to stop us from what.... paying all those valuable ELC players we have?

LOL.

We trade just 1 of these guys, and it pays for the raise of everyone under 22.

If we didn't have Franzen on LTIR, Gator being essentially "retired" might be more useful than he is being an actual roster player.

You have to use context. The d corp is still garbage. Adding Jensen doesn't change that. XO is a bottom pairing guy and doesn't change that. Even if Sproul develops into more he's not more than a bottom pairing pp specialist right now. DK has seriously regressed. Kronwall is old as ****. Ericsson is Ericsson. Green is the only dman who is good on this squad. Your forwards, led by a guy who's way too old and battled injuries for years isn't going to be able to carry that d-squad.

Hard to argue any of this, but I think XO and Sproul can play themselves up the depth chart if we just bite the bullet and play them. At some point, I think it's what we have to do anyway, and then go into next summer either knowing we are willing to do it again and there is room to continue growing, or to aggressively cut bait and move on.

I particularly enjoyed what Babcock could do with the roster when we still had Datsyuk and a younger Z and Kronwall.

Oops.

yeah, I think the regression of Z and especially Kronwall is still not given enough credit for how far this team has slid the past couple of years. Take Datsyuk out, too, and this team is crippled in a serious way.

Even with this team, give us a healthier and younger Z and Kronwall and we're a far, far better club.

 

[Bench]

I particularly enjoyed what Babcock could do with the roster when we still had Datsyuk and a younger Z and Kronwall.

Oops.

This needs to be highlighted. Datsyuk and Z were elite players offensively and defensively. Kronwall was still an excellent defender for a good chunk of that. Leaning on those pillars goes a lonnnnng way.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Right, you personally don't think that. So it's your opinion. Not fact.

The Red Wings pay the city of Detroit $1 million per year to rent JLA. It's pocket change for Mike Ilitch. Why are the Red Wings building a new arena? Look at what a gawd awful franchise like the Lions did when they left the Silverdome in Pontiac for their new arena in Detroit:

...the Detroit Lions, whose value skyrocketed from $150 million in 1996 to $839 million in 2006, four years after the franchise moved to its new publicly funded stadium across the street from Comerica Park.

OH YEAH, as of right now the Lions are worth $1.65 billion. So basically doubled their valuation in a DECADE.

I still get great enjoyment out of the idea Mike Ilitch is going to lose a quarter of a billion dollars. Yes, poor Mike Ilitch is going to own every single revenue stream coming into his new arena. That sounds like a losing proposition to me!

 

[Bench]

I still get great enjoyment out of the idea Mike Ilitch is going to lose a quarter of a billion dollars. Yes, poor Mike Ilitch is going to own every single revenue stream coming into his new arena. That sounds like a losing proposition to me!

Poor dude might struggle to buy dog food like Mike Modano during the lockout.

 

[Dotter]

Wait, does Mike Illitch now own the Detroit Lions? Somebody needs to update Wikipedia.

 

[Bench]

Wait, does Mike Illitch now own the Detroit Lions? Somebody needs to update Wikipedia.

It was a comparison using a "rebuilding" team in the same city going into a new arena regarding team value.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Well, did the Wings sell out tickets back in the "dead things" era? I heard they had to give away cars to sell tickets back when they were not good.

Do you think fans are just better fans now to the point they'll keep buying out tickets? I personally don't think people will want pay to see a losing team.

I doubt it. Detroit fans are turning into philly fans (with more class) They hate losers

 

[Dotter]

if

It was a comparison using a "rebuilding" team in the same city going into a new arena regarding team value.

Well shoot, at the rate the Lions are climbing, the Lions team will be worth more than Mike Illitch's net worth. I could see Red Wings (being an NHL team) peaking out at around $750 million in the next 7 to 10 years. But if Wings can keep the streak alive, I am sure they can earn that in ticket/concessions sales before the franchise worth peaks out at that level.

Buy some dog food with that.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

I do not believe that is what I said? I think what I said was "The more you earn, the more you get to keep. It's part of the business.".

in a nutshell

http://iveybusinessreview.ca/blogs/cmcdavidhba2016/2015/03/31/two-minutes-interference/

Okay, so you aren't even addressing what I'm talking about. Great.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

The Red Wings pay the city of Detroit $1 million per year to rent JLA. It's pocket change for Mike Ilitch. Why are the Red Wings building a new arena? Look at what a gawd awful franchise like the Lions did when they left the Silverdome in Pontiac for their new arena in Detroit:



OH YEAH, as of right now the Lions are worth $1.65 billion. So basically doubled their valuation in a DECADE.

I still get great enjoyment out of the idea Mike Ilitch is going to lose a quarter of a billion dollars. Yes, poor Mike Ilitch is going to own every single revenue stream coming into his new arena. That sounds like a losing proposition to me!

I think putting this value on a stadium alone is pretty disingenuous.

https://law.marquette.edu/assets/sports-law/pdf/sports-facility-reports/Forbes.pdf

Team values have been skyrocketing for two decades now. Keep in mind Mike Ilitch bought the Red Wings when they had just begun playing in the JLA for a couple of seasons for 8 million dollars. They are now worth 625 million. So from 1982 to 2016 they increased by that much. Hockey hasn't experienced the same kind of growth as some of the other sports either.

As shown in the link the NFL's average value for a decent chunk of time was exploding while still in the Silverdome.

Ilitch is making a wise investment really, given the climate around sports franchises. It is no different than buying a really famous painting or any kind of luxury purchase. Doubling down on sports franchises seems to be an incredibly sound investment, especially one with the history the Wings have going for it.

But any point which uses the NFL as a predictor of the other leagues is pretty tough to understand. Maybe the NBA because of the explosion of tv money has to use the NFL as an indicator because of the incredible growth they might have. The NHL doesn't hit in that same stratosphere and isn't a true like for like comparison in my opinion.

 

[jkutswings]

I agree that you can't compare the NHL and NFL as apples to apples, but the point remains that even if the team goes 10-72 next year, the combination of people checking out the new arena, and the increased franchise value from said arena, will very likely prevent anything resembling a dire loss of revenue.