Hypothesis: This team can make the playoffs

[TehDoak]

Usually teams this young are marked by inconsistency night to night. In other words, there's 0 ways we can predict the end of the season 11 games in.

 

[Woodhouse]

You need consistency to hit 98 points and ensure playoffs, a la Keenan's six-points-in five-games pace. Right now, they're clearly behind that pace and would need wins in seven of the next eight to get on that pace, though five of eight would probably keep them in the conversation but still in need of a hot streak. A better result in Tampa would've put them in the thick of things in the Atlantic right now, but they lost that game and are still behind everyone but Toronto in the division.

Eastern Conference 6 in 5 Pace: http://www.armchair-gm.com/playoff_pace/teams/conference/eastern/

 

[Djp]

Usually teams this young are marked by inconsistency night to night. In other words, there's 0 ways we can predict the end of the season 11 games in.

granted everyone will have bad games....

the inconsistencies will mainly be with Eichel, Reinhart, and Ullmark (other young goalies).

I don't see that much variance happening with the other younger players ( Girgensons, ristolainen, Foligno, Deslauriers, Pysyk, McCabe, Larsson). All of them are on 4th or more season removed from their draft year except for Risto.

 

[Dingo44]

It will be fun to at least be in the running, which I think we are.

 

[Djp]

You need consistency to hit 98 points and ensure playoffs, a la Keenan's six-points-in five-games pace. Right now, they're clearly behind that pace and would need wins in seven of the next eight to get on that pace, though five of eight would probably keep them in the conversation but still in need of a hot streak. A better result in Tampa would've put them in the thick of things in the Atlantic right now, but they lost that game and are still behind everyone but Toronto in the division.

Eastern Conference 6 in 5 Pace: http://www.armchair-gm.com/playoff_pace/teams/conference/eastern/

I disagree....

looking over Eastern conference and what was needed to make the playoffs has been around the low 90s.

Last year was a little different because you had some separation between top9 and the bottom 7 thus raising the point level. In all other seasons you have had a more even spread of teams where teams 7-11th place in the conference were still close and you didn't have big separation.

If they are in the 77-82 with 12 games to play(12*6+6=78) or 63-68 (12*5+6=66)with 22 games left then the playoffs are well within reach then confidence and want to make the playoffs kicks in.

 

[Sabre Dance]

The poster you quoted said who the pairs are is irrelevant to this discussion. Also that poster had Franson in when the D is healthy. He took him out when we gained a hypothetical LHD in the Top 4. If that guy is strong on the PP and equally if not better than Franson defensively than Franson could sit. I agree that Franson should be left in to help the PP if that imaginary replacement isn't sufficient.

That's what I get for not reading. My fault.

 

[Wisent42]

granted everyone will have bad games....

the inconsistencies will mainly be with Eichel, Reinhart, and Ullmark (other young goalies).

I don't see that much variance happening with the other younger players ( Girgensons, ristolainen, Foligno, Deslauriers, Pysyk, McCabe, Larsson). All of them are on 4th or more season removed from their draft year except for Risto.

I've been thinking a bit about the consistency thing. Look at a guy like O'Reilly. Seems like even if he has an off night he's pretty useful. And then I think about what has been repeatedly said about Kane by Jets fans - that while he may not be the most versatile player he never takes a night off. Same seems to be true about Bogosian (if being injured doesn't count). And Deslauriers. Those are the guys Murray brought in. Add to that: Girgensons, Larsson, Ristolainen, Pysyk... These are all very consistent players in the sense that you know what they bring, and they bring it. Everybody has a bad game every once in a while, but these seem to be players that don't fall through and that are still useful even on their off nights. If you guys get what I'm going at.

So I'm kinda sensing a theme. And this is also why I don't believe that the Sabres as a team will be very inconsistent. Which also leads me to believe that it's realistic to dream of a post season in Buffalo.

 

[Chainshot]

I think they will have inconsistency based simply on youth. There are going to be nights when some of the kids are just not on (imagine if Pysyk or McCabe have a really bad night) and that is just the nature of having a young team.

 

[Djp]

I think they will have inconsistency based simply on youth. There are going to be nights when some of the kids are just not on (imagine if Pysyk or McCabe have a really bad night) and that is just the nature of having a young team.

Its based on probability theory.....

What is the likelihood one of them has a bad night but Buffalo still wins?

How many need to have a bad night for Buffalo to lose ?

In other words...

using a weighted die and rolling a 1means a bad game and 6 means a good game. What are the odds of getting all of them to have a bad game if each player has their own die. What score is necessary for it to be a loss?

 

[Zman5778]

Usually teams this young are marked by inconsistency night to night. In other words, there's 0 ways we can predict the end of the season 11 games in.

This is it exactly.

We've already seen a bit of it with Eichel -- he's been great some nights, other nights notsomuch.

Risto, Pysyk and McCabe will all see ebbs and flows (though Risto's should be of a lower intensity).

Larsson and Girgensons didn't start out so hot. Heck, neither did ROR.



It's no crime if/when we don't make the playoffs this year. It's highly unlikely that we will. We're already better than last year. This year is all about preparing the kids for the runs to come. As long as they progress over the course of the season, we'll be OK.

 

[Man of Principles]

I'll bet it's 1 or 2 bad games and this thread dies.

Personally I think you're getting ahead of yourself if you think we're gonna make the playoffs this year. We just need to revel in the good and embrace the bad as the team continues to grow. It'll be an up and down, topsy-turvy campaign.

 

[Ralonzo]

Outside the Montreal game the team has been in every game they played.

Even that game.

I was thinking after that game that it was one of the best performances I've ever seen from a team that lost by 5. I was surprised at people posting in the endless McDavid-Eichel threads about how the Sabres got destroyed, who clearly only looked at the headline on NHL.com and didn't watch the game (but I have seen the Oilers this year look worse than Philly did against Buffalo)

If you cut the goals out of that game tape you might think it was a 3-2 game one way or the other. They might not have deserved to win the game, but they played on a largely equal footing except goaltending was horrible and an inordinate amount of lucky bounces went for Montreal - I mean, look at that deflection by Torrey Freakin Mitchell, are you kidding me?

The goals have not happened. The feeling is if they play the same they have been the goals will happen which will change the results.

Right now its about the team gaining their confidence and believing they can win which is what matters.

They have shown a penchant for comebacks from the start of preseason, right up till last night. I don't think it's a problem of confidence or not thinking they can win, it goes back to the first thing you said - they just have to start finishing chances.

 

[flashsabre]

I think next year is the key year for playoffs. I have been really impressed with how quickly all these new players have picked up the new systems. I'm still in shock watching a Sabres team that out shoots opponents and wins face offs!!

I've just enjoyed the ride this year and am having fun being a fan again. You can see the pieces coming together for what hopefully is a few great runs down the road.

If Ullmark solidifies the net and Bogo returns and helps to stabilize the D then they could make a run at the playoffs but those are two big ifs at this point.

 

[ozpensfan]

I'll stick with my original prediction and eat pie if im wrong, Sabres will choose top 5 in the draft next year.

Theres just so much riding on young shoulders right now - People trying to find chemisty and a fit. Something will have to give eventually which is fine with a young team.

 

[SabresSharks]

Realistically, no. Too much to expect from such a young team, with so many new players, a new coach, and lengthy injuries to key players.

I'm just looking forward to seeing the kids develop and watching the team gel. They've been thoroughly entertaining recently, and I'm happy with that for now. Making the playoffs would be an unexpected bonus.

 

[Russ Tyler]

Good enough team for sure, all it takes is a hot goalie

 

[jBuds]

Maybe. But I'm not upset if we miss it...

...so long as the team plays like it has for the most part.

Watchable, first and foremost. Systematic, disciplined, motivated, structured, playing with a purpose, and GROWING... Individually and as a 4-line, 3-pair unit.

 

[Foligno17]

If the team can get entirely healthy for a good stretch, I think the playoffs are possible. Kane, and Bogosian are better than the guys they would replace. The goaltending hasn't been too bad either.

Maybe the key to the season lies in how good Pysyk and McCabe can be. The defensive group could turn out to be better than the consensus says. We all have our hypotheses, now we just have to test them.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Wait until the end of the month! We'll have ... ROR sucks .... What's wrong with Eichel .... Bylsma is the worst coach ever!!! Threads

Sign me up for the roller coaster pre-mature threads. I'll take them over the tank thread.

While I was firmly in the tank camp, quietly hoping for your team to lose for two years sucked.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Watchable, first and foremost. Systematic, disciplined, motivated, structured, playing with a purpose, and GROWING... Individually and as a 4-line, 3-pair unit.

Amen

 

[Clock]

I feel like it wouldn't be a huge surprise if they snuck in while also not being disappointed if they miss. There's bound to be some awful **** streak to screw things up.

 

[Sabretooth]

Sign me up for the roller coaster pre-mature threads. I'll take them over the tank thread.

While I was firmly in the tank camp, quietly hoping for your team to lose for two years sucked.

quietly?

 

[Crazy Tasty]

I feel like it wouldn't be a huge surprise if they snuck in while also not being disappointed if they miss. There's bound to be some awful **** streak to screw things up.

I don't feel like this defense is setup to sustain the great shots/against #'s that they have so far, and I think that's the most important piece
(with decent Goaltending) to them having a shot at making the playoffs... but I'd love to be wrong!

 

[PunchImlach is Alive]

Could be but my expectations are nowhere near that high.

We also have the benefit of being in the Atlantic. If this was Central, I'd say that's crazy. But I do think we are a live dog against nearly all the teams in our division. Is it enough to squeak into playoff contention? Probably not. But there isn't much I'd change going into next season.

 

[Der Jaeger]

quietly?

I wasn't one of the fans openly cheering for losses. Sitting at home with my kids, as the Sabres scored, I cheered.... getting them on the right track.

Inside, I hoped they would lose for McEichel.

To your probable point, the tank thread vs. the GDT thread was unbearable. Glad that's over.