Hypothesis: This team can make the playoffs

[haseoke39]

Thoughts?

PRO:
- Team outshoots its opponents 32-27 on average. That's #2 in the league in shots for, and #5 in the league (meaning fifth-best) in shots against. This is really what drives the discussion. On an average night, playing an average mix of opponents through these first 12, we tend to control more of the play. Which is quite surprising for this team. Almost shocking at this early date. Any team that can maintain that, you have to think would finish 2 games over .500, which is all the ground we really need to make up for a wild card spot.
- Top-6 in particular appears to have the talent to compete with most teams in the league.
- 9th best PP% in the league.
- Ullmark has 3 games of looking like an average NHL starter.
- Playing through significant injuries to Kane, Bogosian, maybe Lehner counts as a loss as well.
- Coaching seems to be minimizing our defensive weaknesses, except on the penalty kill.


CON:
- Defense is playing above its talent level right now? Or just well-coached?
- Youngest team in the league. Youth and inexperience will surface throughout season, as players get worn down, leading to more mental mistakes.
- Ullmark has only 3 games of looking like an NHL starter. He will falter for some stretch of time in the coming weeks, maybe before Lehner is back.
- The penalty kill is a gaping wound.
- What coaching hasn't been able to do is find and develop/maintain chemistry between its high-profile rookies (Eichel, Reinhart) and anyone else.

Do we have a real shot?

Click to read more...

 

[Wisent42]

Yes, we have a shot. Because we're playing well, driving posession and hold our ground pretty good. The points we've gathered thus far aren't flukes, if anything we should have had another couple of wins.

It looks to me that the coaching staff has introduced a system that covers some of the cracks, and it seems players are on board with it. Something I find noteworthy is calm our defensemen look with the puck (with some exceptions, looking at you Weber) and how hard and distinct the pass the puck D to D, both in the D-zone and on the offensive blue line. It's a little thing, but for a couple of years we couldn't do it to save our lives, so I'm happy about it. To me it shows confidence and trust.

We've done well so far, and that's without Bogo, with only one goal each from Kane and Girgensons and with several players expected to keep getting better as we go. Plus the whole team is still learning to play together.

So yes. We have a shot.

 

[Sabre Dance]

If they get goaltending and continue to have impressive possession #s they will be a playoff team no doubt.

Our D is better than people think. Ristolainen, Pysyk, and McCabe will only get better. Gorges is solid. Franson makes up for being slow with his power play ability.

Need Bogosian back,

 

[FearTheBeard]

If they get goaltending and continue to have impressive possession #s they will be a playoff team no doubt.

Our D is better than people think. Ristolainen, Pysyk, and McCabe will only get better. Gorges is solid. Franson makes up for being slow with his power play ability.

Need Bogosian back,

heh, funny. A week ago you made a thread on how Murray has failed as a GM.

We also had an "embrace another tank" thread last week. Funny how fast peoples opinions change...

 

[CrazyPsycho]

heh, funny. A week ago you made a thread on how Murray has failed as a GM.

We also had an "embrace another tank" thread last week. Funny how fast peoples opinions change...

The Chad will do that to you

 

[ZZamboni]

heh, funny. A week ago you made a thread on how Murray has failed as a GM.

We also had an "embrace another tank" thread last week. Funny how fast peoples opinions change...

Wait until the end of the month! We'll have ... ROR sucks .... What's wrong with Eichel .... Bylsma is the worst coach ever!!! Threads


I don't think there's a likely chance we make the playoffs. If the stars align, key players from most teams go down with long injuries, Sabres play crazy good for 5 months straight, and TM sells his soul ... Then yes there's a good chance.

 

[Sabre Dance]

heh, funny. A week ago you made a thread on how Murray has failed as a GM.

We also had an "embrace another tank" thread last week. Funny how fast peoples opinions change...

No I didn't. I made a reply about Murray's moves. Someone turned my reply into a thread. I still feel most of Murray's moves are a failure.

O'Reilly is saving him.

And also, I've been saying all year the team is playing well.

I don't trust Murray though. If you do that's fine. Murray scares me.

 

[Jeremy2020]

Wheeee...I love rollercoasters.

 

[old kummelweck]

What's that line from Reservoir Dogs? I'd post the youtube, but it's nsfw.

 

[Djp]

Historically low 90s point total puts you on that playoff bubble of being a 7-10 in standings for the 2 wild cards.

last years was a little different because you seemed to have early separation with teams where in each conference come early February you had 9 teams for the 8 playoff spots instead of 12. this caused separation in the standings between playoff and non playoff.


I think this year will be more like 13/14 where at the trade deadline it was about 6 points separated teams ranked from 6-21 in draft order. As a result there wasn't as much big trades that happened.

With this team it will all be about confidence and how the younger player perform.

the biggest question mark will be defense if they are healthy:

Gorges-Ristolainen
McCabe-Bogosian
Franson-Pysyk
Cola

isn't all that bad. It can be better if they got a top 4 LHD:
Gorges-Risto
LHD-Bogosian
McCabe-Pysyk
Franson

{{who the pairs are is irrelevant to this discussion }}

the first 10 games they went 3-7-0 for 6 points.

If the team can average 12 points for every 10 games they will be at 90 points with 80 games played.


Come trade deadline if they are in the hunt they can be very motivated to push and get into the playoffs.

In the Atlantic only Montreal is playing really well. Tampa Bay on paper is a good team so I think 3rd place is up for grabs to anyone who wants it.

games 1-10 3-7-0 6 pts
games 11-20 5-1-1 11 pts DAL, stl, dal
games 21-30 STL, NAS, CAR, nas, det, PHX, edm, van, cgy, LA

---I think around here is when you could see Kane and Lehner be close to returning. My feeling bogosian should be back by game 31.

games 31-40 det, NJ, ANA CHI bos {XMAS }WAS was NYI DET FLA
games 41-50 chi wpg min BOS WAS phx col DET nyr, ott {all star break}
games 51-60
games 61-70
games 71-80



I will edit the rest of this later...

 

[Sabreality]

Not to be a downer but i dont think so. There are going to be some stretches where they arent playing as well as they are now, and while Ullmarks been a nice story over the weekend, he's got a long way to go to solidify the position.

While sure, BOS & NJ may come back to earth a bit, DET & OTT will likely pick up their play at some point. I cant say with a straight face that this team is IN, not even mentioning competing with FLA & PHI.

Picking 8-12th will be a step in the right direction towards next season.

Yes, they have us feeling pretty good, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Historically low 90s point total puts you on that playoff bubble of being a 7-10 in standings for the 2 wild cards.

last years was a little different because you seemed to have early separation with teams where in each conference come early February you had 9 teams for the 8 playoff spots instead of 12. this caused separation in the standings between playoff and non playoff.


I think this year will be more like 13/14 where at the trade deadline it was about 6 points separated teams ranked from 6-21 in draft order. As a result there wasn't as much big trades that happened.

With this team it will all be about confidence and how the younger player perform.

the biggest question mark will be defense if they are healthy:

Gorges-Ristolainen
McCabe-Bogosian
Franson-Pysyk
Cola

isn't all that bad. It can be better if they got a top 4 LHD:
Gorges-Risto
LHD-Bogosian
McCabe-Pysyk
Franson

{{who the pairs are is irrelevant to this discussion }}

the first 10 games they went 3-7-0 for 6 points.

If the team can average 12 points for every 10 games they will be at 90 points with 80 games played.


Come trade deadline if they are in the hunt they can be very motivated to push and get into the playoffs.

In the Atlantic only Montreal is playing really well. Tampa Bay on paper is a good team so I think 3rd place is up for grabs to anyone who wants it.

games 1-10 3-7-0 6 pts
games 11-20 2-0-0 4 pts TB, VAN, tb, fla, SJ, DAL, stl, dal
games 21-30 STL, NAS, CAR, nas, det, PHX, edm, van, cgy, LA
---I think around here is when you could see Kane and Lehner be close to returning. My feeling bogosian should be back by game 31.

games 31-40
games 41-50
games 51-60
games 61-70
games 71-80



I will edit the rest of this later...

Why would we take Franson out? Our power play is clicking.

 

[Sabretooth]

Team's been playing good hockey for a little over a week, but I don't think we've had a particularly tough schedule so far. We beat Cbus (and only 1 out of 2), we beat the leafs in a shootout, we beat philly twice but they look awful, and we beat the islanders without Tavares. Not exactly the cream of the crop there. We peppered the penguins with shots but they've been questionable so far this year as well. Maybe a couple other games we can say we should have won with some better puck luck, but this team has to learn to make it's own luck and win games they should win. I don't think we can start talking about making the playoffs until we actually start beating some playoff teams (Islanders should be a playoff team, but not without Tavares).

 

[sabresfan129103]

I think they'll make a push towards the end of the year, but will miss it by 3-5 points. Because they are such a young team we'll see stretches like the beginning of the year where they'll have trouble scoring goals. Plus the goaltending is still suspect.

A lot of people thought our defense was a tire fire going into the year (mostly outside people/non-fans of the team), but I never thought it was as bad as others made it out to be. Getting Bogosian back will make the defense look quite a bit better and it's already looked very solid.

Overall though even after 12 games you can see them coming together as a team which is very encouraging. They won't be a bottom 5 team again that's for sure, but I think the playoffs will be a bit out of reach this season. Next year I think they should make it quite easily.

 

[Ghills23]

Why would we take Franson out? Our power play is clicking.

{{who the pairs are is irrelevant to this discussion }}

I think there is certainly a chance we can make the playoffs. It depends on how we play. Are we going to have some slumps, probably, but if we can continue to play strong, drive possession and out shoot other teams it is definitely a possibility. I said before the season that I thought they'd finish around 7-10 in the East. I think that is where they'l end up.

 

[Djp]

Team's been playing good hockey for a little over a week, but I don't think we've had a particularly tough schedule so far. We beat Cbus (and only 1 out of 2), we beat the leafs in a shootout, we beat philly twice but they look awful, and we beat the islanders without Tavares. Not exactly the cream of the crop there. We peppered the penguins with shots but they've been questionable so far this year as well. Maybe a couple other games we can say we should have won with some better puck luck, but this team has to learn to make it's own luck and win games they should win. I don't think we can start talking about making the playoffs until we actually start beating some playoff teams (Islanders should be a playoff team, but not without Tavares).

Outside the Montreal game the team has been in every game they played. The goals have not happened. The feeling is if they play the same they have been the goals will happen which will change the results.

Right now its about the team gaining their confidence and believing they can win which is what matters.

 

[Sabre Dance]

{{who the pairs are is irrelevant to this discussion }}

I think there is certainly a chance we can make the playoffs. It depends on how we play. Are we going to have some slumps, probably, but if we can continue to play strong, drive possession and out shoot other teams it is definitely a possibility. I said before the season that I thought they'd finish around 7-10 in the East. I think that is where they'l end up.

Who plays is relevant to the team making the playoffs. Our power play is relevant to the question.

Taking Franson out does not help us make the playoffs unless someone else can replace him.

 

[OkimLom]

No I didn't. I made a reply about Murray's moves. Someone turned my reply into a thread. I still feel most of Murray's moves are a failure.

O'Reilly is saving him.

And also, I've been saying all year the team is playing well.

I don't trust Murray though. If you do that's fine. Murray scares me.

Why does he scare you?

 

[Chainshot]

I think we will know more after this November stretch. They should start to normalize on their shooting percentages and it appears Ullmark can give them at least average goaltending right now and if Bogosian returns with the sort of play he had when he started his run with the Sabres last season... they should surprise a bunch of teams. It is funny to see the standings and notice that while they are 24th in the league right now, they are just a win out of 16th right now but this next batch is going to be telling.

 

[Dingo44]

Why does he scare you?

Oh, he knows scary. He LITERALLY has "Scary" in his name!



Maybe Murray is SCARY GOOD.

 

[sabrebuild]

I think we will know more after this November stretch. They should start to normalize on their shooting percentages and it appears Ullmark can give them at least average goaltending right now and if Bogosian returns with the sort of play he had when he started his run with the Sabres last season... they should surprise a bunch of teams. It is funny to see the standings and notice that while they are 24th in the league right now, they are just a win out of 16th right now but this next batch is going to be telling.

Agreed, curious to see how they look with more normal shooting percentages. 25 games in and we will know a ton more.

Tryouts continue.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Agree with Chain..We'll have a much better idea by Thanksgiving. So far, they've overachieved defensively compared to my expectations, even with Bogo out, but have been let down by shoddy goaltending from Johnson and low sh% at the other end. If Ullmark can maintain league average play and the team can start capitalizing on their chances, it's certainly possible they could vault into the playoff mix.

 

[Ghills23]

Who plays is relevant to the team making the playoffs. Our power play is relevant to the question.

Taking Franson out does not help us make the playoffs unless someone else can replace him.

The poster you quoted said who the pairs are is irrelevant to this discussion. Also that poster had Franson in when the D is healthy. He took him out when we gained a hypothetical LHD in the Top 4. If that guy is strong on the PP and equally if not better than Franson defensively than Franson could sit. I agree that Franson should be left in to help the PP if that imaginary replacement isn't sufficient.

 

[Jame]

i see we've gone the other way i premature threads...

 

[Crazy Tasty]

i see we've gone the other way i premature threads...

next up in Mid-November... Plan the parade!