That's how I see it going down. I would PREFER that it moves along much faster. I'm not sure why a lot of you are saying Zaitsev makes the team next season, I listed him for next season because we could use a good defenceman. I'd love that to be the case, but I'm not sure why they would rush him into the NHL without giving him some time to develop on the farm team or Q or similar league
Zaitsev is 24, so he can't go down to the CHL.
I see the only lock being Nylander. Not Zaitsev because he hasn't proven himself within the Leafs organization (even though I think he's very ready). I can see them giving him at least 20-ish games in the A before trying him out. Not Marner because I could see a scenario in which they think he's just a bit too weak still, and having him play a full (and dominant) year at centre to test him out as a potential C down the road.
Locks:
Nylander, no doubt about it.
Strong Chances:
2016 1st (If it's Matthews, it's a lock. Pulju, 80%. Laine, 75%)
Zaitsev (90%)
Marner (75%)
Leivo (75%)
Sparks (75%)
Percy (70%)
Harrington (70%)
Darkhorses:
Brown (If he's feeling 100%, go ahead and put him at 75% too)
Leipsic (Only if two of Marner, Leivo or Brown are left off, then there's a chance)
Soshnikov (Same as Leipsic)
Loov (If Percy is dealt, there's a chance he goes over Harrington, but I doubt it)
(I'm not great with percentages but those are close enough. I think it's a close race, to say the least.)
Projected 2015-16 Lineup (to start the year)
Komarov - Kadri - 2016 1st/Marner/FA
JVR - Nylander/Stamkos - FA/Nylander/Brown
(If Stammer's here, it's the 1st line; Nylander would definitely be on the wing in this case)
Leivo/Holland/Leipsic/Lupul/anyone apparently - Holland/FA - Lupul/Soshnikov
Winnik/FA - Froese/FA - Winnik/FA (Not sure which side Winnik plays)
Gardiner - Phaneuf
Rielly - Zaitsev (Top 2 lines interchangable)
Hunwick - Percy/Harrington/Loov
Bernier
Reimer/Sparks
Lots of positions up for grabs. I tried to incorporate all possibilities which is why this is a complete mess. Dream lines for me, though, are these:
JVR - Stamkos - Nylander (Test Stammer and Nylander at C, see who works better)
Komarov - Kadri - Marner
Leivo - Holland - Lupul (has to be realistic, as much as Lupul doesn't fit anymore)
Winnik - FA (maybe Spaling) - FA
Rielly - Zaitsev
Gardiner - Phaneuf
Hunwick - Percy
Bernier
Sparks (as long as we got a whole boatload for Reimer)