How Long Will We Keep Pretending That a D Is More Needed Than A #1 C

[Roy Baby*]

I see it all the time that the Canucks are thin on D, which yeah, the Nucks don't have an elite D - but that's as it sits. Strong D come out of nowhere from any round and I've seen just about enough evidence to say that wasting a high draft pick on a D is counterproductive...

Would you rather have Ghost or Griffin Reinhart? Karlsson or Ryan Murphy ? Josi or Bogosian ? Weber or Coburn? Tanev or Luke Schenn? Erik Johnson was a 1st overall...PK Subban in the early 40s ---and younger

Doughty, OEL, Ekblad...ok, got that out of the way lmao rare.


So yes. Double shoulder surgery Chychrun and Bonehead Bean will not fix anything.

A center with tenacity is the #1 immediate need. Elite D will be found through any round and could already be in the system. A center? Not so much.

Now: what can the Canucks do (other than McLeod) to get a player like that ? Who do you think would fit perfectly as the Canucks #1 C ? I see Draisatl as the perfect Hank replacement and would give quite a bit to get him. What about you ?

Click to read more...

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

I'm confused.

But yeah center depth.

 

[WTG]

Good luck to get Draisaitl traded to a divisional rival

 

[clunk]

Your title contradicts what you're saying in this thread.

 

[Roy Baby*]

Good luck to get Draisaitl traded to a divisional rival

Toronto and Ottawa. Today. Check that out sometime.

Not to mention, RNH's stock has dropped like crazy and the Oil wouldn't get anything near what they'd want for him (see Seth Jones proposal - another high pick D example struggling to match his value...surprise). Draisaitl has become better trade bait and the Canucks have the pieces it could take to get him iah. He's more tradable than RNH considering they're in the running for Matthews this year.

 

[Roy Baby*]

Your title contradicts what you're saying in this thread.

That a Center is more of a pressing needed than a D ? And that they'll eventually get that #1 D without having to piss away a solid draft pick this year for one ?

Edit: you're right. Back on topic.

 

[clunk]

That a Center is more of a pressing needed than a D ? And that they'll eventually get that #1 D without having to piss away a solid draft pick this year for one ?

If by contradicts you mean follows the title - then absolutely.

Read it again. Slowly. Your title should read "How Long Will We Keep Pretending That a D Is More Needed Than A Center"

 

[Roy Baby*]

I'm confused.

But yeah center depth.

Nothing to be confused about.

Elite D= don't use a high pick this year to get it. It will come.

Center= use high draft pick this year for that. This is a power forward draft and a high bust potential D draft. If used on a winger, how would you obtain a 1C? Players, picks, prospects ? Nucks need a C.

 

[Roy Baby*]

Read it again. Slowly. Your title should read "How Long Will We Keep Pretending That a D Is More Needed Than A Center"

Fixed. Thank you, sir. It was supposed to be "less" needed but I like yours better

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Hutton is potentially that puck moving #1 that we've all been craving.

 

[WTG]

Just for reference I'll name all the drafted NHL defensemen picked in the top 15. I picked 15 because it's the difference between in the playoffs and out of the playoffs.

2005 Draft:
3rd Jack Johnson
9th Brian Lee
10th Luc Bourdon
12th Marc Staal
14th Sasha Pokulok

2006 Draft:
1st Erik Johnson

2007 Draft:
4th Thomas Hickey
5th Karl Alzner
10th Keaton Ellerby
12th Ryan McDonagh
14th Kevin Shattenkirk
15th Alex Plante

2008 Draft:
2nd Drew Doughty
3rd Zach Bogosian
4th Pietrangelo
5th Luke Schenn
12th Tyler Myers
13th Colten Teubert
15th Erik Karlsson

2009 Draft:
2nd Victor Hedman
6th OEL
9th Jared Cowen
11th Ryan Ellis
12th Calvin de Haan
14th Dmitri Kulikov

2010 Draft:
3rd Erik Gubranson
10th Dylan McIlrath
12th Caw Fowler
13th Brandom Gormley
15th Derek Forbort

2011 Draft:
4th Adam Larsson
9th Dougie Hamilton
10th Jonas Brodin
11th Duncan Siemens
12th Ryan Murphy
14th Jamie Oleksiak

2012 Draft:
2nd Ryan Murray
4th Griffin Reinhart
5th Morgan Rielly
6th Hampus Lindholm
7th Matthew Dumba
9th Jacob Trouba
15th Cody Ceci

2013 Draft:
4th Seth Jones
7th Darnell Nurse
8th Rasmus Ristolainen
11th Samuel Morin
13th Josh Morrissey
15th Ryan Pulock

2014 Draft:
1st Aaron Ekblad
7th Hayden Fleury
14th Julius Honka

I see very few busts and a lot of really good defensemen. So when you say it's a waste of a high pick to pick a defensemen I would have to disagree.

 

[LeftCoast]

So we should go another 11 years without drafting a defenseman in the 1st round?

Yes - D are harder to scout and project, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't use high picks on D. It just means we have to scout better and take more shots - choose a D more than once every 11 or 12 years.

 

[Cogburn]

Just for reference I'll name all the drafted NHL defensemen picked in the top 15. I picked 15 because it's the difference between in the playoffs and out of the playoffs.

2005 Draft:
3rd Jack Johnson
9th Brian Lee
10th Luc Bourdon
12th Marc Staal
14th Sasha Pokulok

2006 Draft:
1st Erik Johnson

2007 Draft:
4th Thomas Hickey
5th Karl Alzner
10th Keaton Ellerby
12th Ryan McDonagh
14th Kevin Shattenkirk
15th Alex Plante

2008 Draft:
2nd Drew Doughty
3rd Zach Bogosian
4th Pietrangelo
5th Luke Schenn
12th Tyler Myers
13th Colten Teubert
15th Erik Karlsson

2009 Draft:
2nd Victor Hedman
6th OEL
9th Jared Cowen
11th Ryan Ellis
12th Calvin de Haan
14th Dmitri Kulikov

2010 Draft:
3rd Erik Gubranson
10th Dylan McIlrath
12th Caw Fowler
13th Brandom Gormley
15th Derek Forbort

2011 Draft:
4th Adam Larsson
9th Dougie Hamilton
10th Jonas Brodin
11th Duncan Siemens
12th Ryan Murphy
14th Jamie Oleksiak

2012 Draft:
2nd Ryan Murray
4th Griffin Reinhart
5th Morgan Rielly
6th Hampus Lindholm
7th Matthew Dumba
9th Jacob Trouba
15th Cody Ceci

2013 Draft:
4th Seth Jones
7th Darnell Nurse
8th Rasmus Ristolainen
11th Samuel Morin
13th Josh Morrissey
15th Ryan Pulock

2014 Draft:
1st Aaron Ekblad
7th Hayden Fleury
14th Julius Honka

I see very few busts and a lot of really good defensemen. So when you say it's a waste of a high pick to pick a defensemen I would have to disagree.

37/46 being where they should be or better is hardly conclusive. Every forward, especially centres, always develop 100% of the time. Right White, Grabner, Hodgson, Schroeder and Jensen?

 

[Roy Baby*]

Just for reference I'll name all the drafted NHL defensemen picked in the top 15. I picked 15 because it's the difference between in the playoffs and out of the playoffs.

2005 Draft:
3rd Jack Johnson
9th Brian Lee
10th Luc Bourdon
12th Marc Staal
14th Sasha Pokulok

2006 Draft:
1st Erik Johnson

2007 Draft:
4th Thomas Hickey
5th Karl Alzner
10th Keaton Ellerby
12th Ryan McDonagh
14th Kevin Shattenkirk
15th Alex Plante

2008 Draft:
2nd Drew Doughty
3rd Zach Bogosian
4th Pietrangelo
5th Luke Schenn
12th Tyler Myers
13th Colten Teubert
15th Erik Karlsson

2009 Draft:
2nd Victor Hedman
6th OEL
9th Jared Cowen
11th Ryan Ellis
12th Calvin de Haan
14th Dmitri Kulikov

2010 Draft:
3rd Erik Gubranson
10th Dylan McIlrath
12th Caw Fowler
13th Brandom Gormley
15th Derek Forbort

2011 Draft:
4th Adam Larsson
9th Dougie Hamilton
10th Jonas Brodin
11th Duncan Siemens
12th Ryan Murphy
14th Jamie Oleksiak

2012 Draft:
2nd Ryan Murray
4th Griffin Reinhart
5th Morgan Rielly
6th Hampus Lindholm
7th Matthew Dumba
9th Jacob Trouba
15th Cody Ceci

2013 Draft:
4th Seth Jones
7th Darnell Nurse
8th Rasmus Ristolainen
11th Samuel Morin
13th Josh Morrissey
15th Ryan Pulock

2014 Draft:
1st Aaron Ekblad
7th Hayden Fleury
14th Julius Honka

I see very few busts and a lot of really good defensemen. So when you say it's a waste of a high pick to pick a defensemen I would have to disagree.

"Good" defenseman, sure. But look at your list. Jury's still out on a lot of them. Nurse was sitting in the press box the other night - 7th. Oilers need D more than anyone and he's not making any impact. Gudbranson...not even close to living up to expectations. Gormley? Not sure why you included that. Schenn, Myers, Bogosian, Hickey, etc. Same story.

That list helped more than anything and I saw the same list the other day (which actually prompted me to make this thread), so it helps reiterate my point. Go look at how many elites (the kind people expect to turn around the franchise) and where they were drafted.

I see Bean thrown around like he's the answer, but far far from it. Wasting a pick like that on a D (especially this year) would be nuts.

 

[WTG]

"Good" defenseman, sure. But look at your list. Jury's still out on a lot of them. Nurse was sitting in the press box the other night - 7th. Oilers need D more than anyone and he's not making any impact. Gudbranson...not even close to living up to expectations. Gormley? Not sure why you included that. Schenn, Myers, Bogosian, Hickey, etc. Same story.

That list helped more than anything and I saw the same list the other day (which actually prompted me to make this thread), so it helps reiterate my point. Go look at how many elites (the kind people expect to turn around the franchise) and where they were drafted.

I see Bean thrown around like he's the answer, but far far from it. Wasting a pick like that on a D (especially this year) would be nuts.

That is a list of all defenseman drafted in the top 15 2005-14

Out of that list I'd consider:

#1 defensemen/projected:
Erik Johnson 1st
Ryan McDonagh 12th
Kevin Shattenkirk 14th
Drew Doughty 2nd
Pietrangelo 4th
Erik Karlsson 15th
Victor Hedman 2nd
OEL 6th
Ekblad 1st
Ristolainen 8th
Morgan Rielly 5th
Seth Jones 4th
Jacob Trouba 9th

13/52

That's around 20% of top 15 defenseman in the past 9 drafts have been/project to be #1 defensemen or at least top pairing defensemen. That is actually not bad at all.

 

[Roy Baby*]

Hutton is potentially that puck moving #1 that we've all been craving.

Exactly.

Across the league...PK will always be better than Tinordi will be...Keith is better than Seabrook...Klingberg>>>Honka , Faulk >>> Fleury , Weber + Josi >>>> Jones, etc.

Or remember that guy Nicklas Lidstrom ?

Draft on character + develop is key.

Get that #1 C and that solid D will fall outta the sky either through UFA or good later round drafting. That's just the way it is

 

[Roy Baby*]

That is a list of all defenseman drafted in the top 15 2005-14

Out of that list I'd consider:

#1 defensemen/projected:
Erik Johnson 1st
Ryan McDonagh 12th
Kevin Shattenkirk 14th
Drew Doughty 2nd
Pietrangelo 4th
Erik Karlsson 15th
Victor Hedman 2nd
OEL 6th
Ekblad 1st
Ristolainen 8th
Morgan Rielly 5th
Seth Jones 4th
Jacob Trouba 9th

13/52

That's around 20% of top 15 defenseman in the past 9 drafts have been/project to be #1 defensemen or at least top pairing defensemen. That is actually not bad at all.

13 out of 9 years and I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt on 3 of em. This is helping my point quite a bit here; look at how long it took for those guys. Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't only 1 of those guys have a cup?

Hopefully this is sobering to the people calling Benning a dullard if he doesn't pick Sergachev, Bean, Juolevi, Chychrun etc.

 

[WTG]

13 out of 9 years and I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt on 3 of em. This is helping my point quite a bit here; look at how long it took for those guys. Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't only 1 of those guys have a cup?

Hopefully this is sobering to the people calling Benning a dullard if he doesn't pick Sergachev, Bean, Juolevi, Chychrun etc.

First off, let me say that I'm not against your point at all.

I just want to see if it's true or not. I'll find the top 15 picked centers in my next posts see how they match up.

Secondly, I really do not think being a cup winner makes you any better of a player. Henrik doesn't have a cup and he's a elite #1 center in his prime.

 

[Hammer79]

This is one of the lowest offensive performing defensive core in franchise history. One of the reason we are losing 1 goal games is a lack of offensive production. A #1 D-man would turn that around. The immediate team need is offensive D-men, but that doesn't mean you take the next best Dman over the BPA when your pick comes up.

 

[WTG]

Top 15 drafted centers 2005-14

2005:
Sidney Crosby 1st
Gilbert Brule 6th
Anze Kopitar 11th
Ryan O'Marra 15th

2006:
Jordan Staal 2nd
Jonathan Toews 3rd
Nicklas Backstrom 4th
Derek Brassard 6th
Peter Mueller 8th
James Sheppard 9th

2007:
Kyle Turris 3rd
Sam Gagner 6th
Zach Hamill 8th
Logan Couture 9th
Brandon Sutter 11th
Lars Eller 13th

2008:
Steven Stamkos 1st
Colin Wilson 7th
Cody Hodgson 10th
Zach Boychuck 14th

2009:
John Tavares 1st
Matt Duchene 3rd
Brayden Schenn 5th
Nazem Kadri 7th
Scott Glennie 8th
Peter Holland 15th

2010:
Ryan Johansen 4th
Alexander Burmistrov 8th
Mikael Granlund 9th

2011:
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1st
Ryan Strome 5th
Mika Zibanejad 6th
Mark Scheifele 7th
Sean Couturier 8th
J.T. Miller 15th

2012:
Alex Galchenyuk 3rd
Filip Forsberg 11th
Mikhail Grigorenko 12th
Radek Faksa 13th
Zemgus Girgensons 14th

2013:
Nathan MacKinnon 1st
Aleksander Barkov 2nd
Elias Lindholm 5th
Sean Monahan 6th
Bo Horvat 9th
Max Domi 12th
Alexander Wennberg 14th

2014:
Sam Reinhart 2nd
Leon Draisaitl 3rd
Sam Bennett 4th
William Nyalnder 8th
Kevin Fiala 11th
Jakub Vrana 13th
Dylan Larkin 15th

Alright, so some of these players have obviously been switched to wingers. But this is what they listed them as on HockeyDB so we can just assume they were drafted as centers that got transitioned into wingers because of size/whatever.

 

[WTG]

So the #1 centers that are in this group are also pretty low. This is what I'd consider the #1 centers in the group.

Sidney Crosby
Anze Kopitar
Jonathan Toews
Nicklas Backstrom
Steven Stamkos
John Tavares
Matt Duchene
Ryan Johansen
Alex Galchenyuk
Nathan MacKinnon
Aleksander Barkov
Sean Monahan
Sam Reinhart
Leon Draisaitl
Sam Bennett
Dylan Larkin

So 16/53 I would consider #1 center men/project to be #1 centermen.

Compare that to 13/52 #1 defensemen.

30% of top 15 drafted centermen become #1 (IMO)
25% of top 15 drafted defensemen become #1 (IMO)

It's a 5% difference. So it really comes down on which you value more, #1 center men or #1 defensemen.

 

[Pip]

So the plan should be to draft forwards and just cross our fingers that a late round defenseman turns out?

 

[Roy Baby*]

So the #1 centers that are in this group are also pretty low. This is what I'd consider the #1 centers in the group.

Sidney Crosby
Anze Kopitar
Jonathan Toews
Nicklas Backstrom
Steven Stamkos
John Tavares
Matt Duchene
Ryan Johansen
Alex Galchenyuk
Nathan MacKinnon
Aleksander Barkov
Sean Monahan
Sam Reinhart
Leon Draisaitl
Sam Bennett
Dylan Larkin

So 16/53 I would consider #1 center men/project to be #1 centermen.

Compare that to 13/52 #1 defensemen.

30% of top 15 drafted centermen become #1 (IMO)
25% of top 15 drafted defensemen become #1 (IMO)

It's a 5% difference. So it really comes down on which you value more, #1 center men or #1 defensemen.

Juicy list. A lot of guys in that $8 million paid or expected paid range. The quality of those centers >> the quality of those D.

I like it.

 

[Roy Baby*]

So the plan should be to draft forwards and just cross our fingers that a late round defenseman turns out?

Wth?

 

[Horrorshow]

I'd be surprised if there was a centre in the 2016 draft other than Matthews that would be more valuable to us than Horvat.