Value of: Holtby to Colorado

[The Instigator]

Can some Caps fans shed some light on the Holtby trade spec/Samsonov /Grubauer /Carlsson re-signing---everything seems to hinge on one thing happening or not happening

Carlson re-signing is completely separate from the goalie speculation. Can’t see it having any bearing on our goaltending decision.

 

[agentblack]

Carlson re-signing is completely separate from the goalie speculation. Can’t see it having any bearing on our goaltending decision.

Oh ok thans for answering, but i keep seeing posts if you guys need to keep Holtby then you have to make a decision on JC yadda yadda

 

[StephenPeat]

Carlson re-signing is completely separate from the goalie speculation. Can’t see it having any bearing on our goaltending decision.

This is both true, misleading, and oft misinterpreted. Let's just assume (as is obvious) the Caps are Cap-Compliant today with possible UFA Carlson making $3.96M and Jay Beagle making $1.75M AND RFAs Tom Wilson making $2M and Grubauer making $1.5M.

The premiere priority for the Caps as relayed by Brian McLellan himself is re-signing Carlson. I've seen nothing certain but it's reasonable to assume Carlson will get $7-7.5M (minimum) on the market and let's assume those numbers are close to what his handlers are asking for from Wsh. The Caps will likely retain one of Beagle or Wilson (as a place-holder let's say Wilson).

With a rumored $5M increase in the Salary Cap, the Caps can afford a $3-3.5M raise for Carlson and a $1-1.5M raise to Wilson. (Total~$5M) If the Caps let Beagle go they can also afford a $1.75M raise to Grubauer. It's likely these estimates are optimistic and favorable to the Caps so one of these Free Agents may simply price themselves out of Wsh with their asks but Wilson and Grubauer are RFAs so their leverage is limited (though Grubauer is arbitration eligible).

Contrary to the rhetoric that has been spewed by several posters from various other teams (that at times have included Flames, Islanders, and Avs fans) the Caps DO NOT HAVE TO move any of their goalies (and this even without buying out Brooks Orpik) for poor returns. If Carlson wants more money or simply wants out for any reason the Caps cannot be the highest bidder and will likely lose him. Likewise, I'd say if Grubauer forces his hand Wsh will not leap over hurdles to retain him (we have capable backups in the minors) but will make him available for the best "hockey deal" or futures. There are multiple teams with suspect goaltending so I'd imagine the Caps will leverage that to get the best futures deal for Grubauer but that's IMO. I don't see trading Holtby as realistic but wouldn't necessarily be shocked to see him go if a Caps-favorable deal comes along.

Basically, in none of these scenarios are the Caps hands tied so they will get what value they choose from those players they control in trade if anyone is to be moved (barring Carlson who control's his own destiny).

 

[StephenPeat]

Oh ok thans for answering, but i keep seeing posts if you guys need to keep Holtby then you have to make a decision on JC yadda yadda

You don't see those posts from Caps fans and that's because they are largely wishful thinking from other teams fans thinking the Caps will be held over a barrel and be forced to swallow bad trades due to Salary Cap issues that are hardly issues at all.

 

[johnsic]

1st+Zadorov for Holtby+Orpik

 

[Goulet17]

1st+Zadorov for Holtby+Orpik

I don't see Colorado being interested in that deal.

 

[72hockey guy]

You don't see those posts from Caps fans and that's because they are largely wishful thinking from other teams fans thinking the Caps will be held over a barrel and be forced to swallow bad trades due to Salary Cap issues that are hardly issues at all.

this is 100% false

people should use cap friendly and do their own calculations stephen peat has been less than truthful about this from day one, rumours out of washington have been Carlson has been seeking 8-9 not 7-7.5 they still need to do something with orpik and have several good rfas to sign

i refuse to listen to him because he doesnt tell the the whole truth, use your own mind and calculate their cap yourself as far as we know the cap is going up 2 M not 5 as he says it only goes to 5 if the players use the escalator amd there is no guarantee the NHLPA will do so as that requires the players accept escrow where 15% of their salarys are withheld

the bottom line is why listen to someone lie to you when you can use cap friend yourself and see the truth for yourself, even a few honest cap fan posters (a hat tip to txpd and Um for their honesty) have disputed his claims

so my honest suggestion is use cap friendly yourself and make your own determination, why accept biased spin when you can see the facts yourself. theres a reason there are multiple Holtby trade threads on the main board and a reason he's not starting in the playoffs

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Only way that 6.1m Holtby is traded to the Avs is if 5.9m Varlamov is sent to Washington. Holtby better be put in net and play well this playoffs otherwise his trade value plummets....even more.
The ability of the Caps trading Holtby is dependent on other teams thinking he was the good Holtby of previous the past or the seemingly average current edition. And Washington shouldn't expect a full 6.1m cap relief.

 

[StephenPeat]

Contrary to the rhetoric that has been spewed by several posters from various other teams (that at times have included Flames, Islanders, and Avs fans) the Caps DO NOT HAVE TO move any of their goalies (and this even without buying out Brooks Orpik) for poor returns.

^ and ^^Right on cue and still wrong as ever.

 

[StephenPeat]

this is 100% false

people should use cap friendly and do their own calculations stephen peat has been less than truthful about this from day one, rumours out of washington have been Carlson has been seeking 8-9 not 7-7.5 they still need to do something with orpik and have several good rfas to sign

i refuse to listen to him because he doesnt tell the the whole truth, use your own mind and calculate their cap yourself as far as we know the cap is going up 2 M not 5 as he says it only goes to 5 if the players use the escalator amd there is no guarantee the NHLPA will do so as that requires the players accept escrow where 15% of their salarys are withheld

the bottom line is why listen to someone lie to you when you can use cap friend yourself and see the truth for yourself, even a few honest cap fan posters (a hat tip to txpd and Um for their honesty) have disputed his claims

so my honest suggestion is use cap friendly yourself and make your own determination, why accept biased spin when you can see the facts yourself. theres a reason there are multiple Holtby trade threads on the main board and a reason he's not starting in the playoffs

As to all of the bold points, all I'm going to ask is that you provide one iota of support for any of them. Several good RFAs? By my count there are 2, hardly several.

As to your last line, there is a reason for those threads. None of them have been started by Caps fans, yet you seem to think there won't be any interest in a $6M Holtby. I'll let the facts do my talking and let rational posters draw their own conclusions since talking to yourself seems to be all you're good at. And the posts you reference, those by txpd and Um, also largely refute all the nonsense you seem to have convinced yourself of.

 

[72hockey guy]

^ and ^^Right on cue and still wrong as ever.

and still lying stephen ,

thats why I direct them to do the research, dont listen to me, dont listen to you, do the research themselves and come to their own conclusions

and id be glad to provide evidence

"Carlson's completing a six-year, $23.8 million contract with an annual average value of over $3.96 million. A superb puck-moving rearguard in his prime of his career, he could earn over $8 million per season on his next deal."

NHL Rumor Roundup: John Carlson overlooked, undervalued among potential 2018 free agents

how about the words of your own coach (from the athletic)

“It’s tough because we have to go in and balance what we have to pay him, (Tom) Wilson and other roster decisions,” Capitals GM Brian MacLellan told The Athletic. “It’s going to come to a point where we have this much to spend. We really like the player, we really like the season.”
MacLellan said there have been some contract conversations but this is likely an offseason decision for the Capitals, who have quietly set themselves up for another Metro division title.
“I’m assuming he’s going to say yes or no and ‘I’m going to see what’s out there. If I can get $8 million somewhere else …’” MacLellan said. “I don’t know. That’s me reading the tea leaves. They haven’t come out and said that. They want to sign, I want to sign.”​

Brian MacLellan: John Carlson contract likely an offseason decision for Capitals

unlike you I dont shade the truth stephen

 

[AvsGuy]

3 way digglin’



G Semyon Varlamov
Washington’s 3rd round pick in 2019
Ottawa’s 3rd round pick in 2019 (via Colorado)



Colorado’s 1st round pick in 2018
F Joshua Ho-Sang




G Braden Holtby
Islander’s 2nd round pick in 2018


Colorado trades a 1st, 3rd and Varlamov for Holtby and a 2nd

Islanders trade Ho-Sang and a 2nd for Varlamov and two 3rds

Washington trades Holtby and a 3rd for Ho-Sang and a 1st

 

[StephenPeat]

and still lying stephen ,

thats why I direct them to do the research, dont listen to me, dont listen to you, do the research themselves and come to their own conclusions

Sure thing guy, let us know when there are any "credible" reports that Carlson is seeking $8-9M.

 

[72hockey guy]

3 way digglin’



G Semyon Varlamov
Washington’s 3rd round pick in 2019
Ottawa’s 3rd round pick in 2019 (via Colorado)



Colorado’s 1st round pick in 2018
F Joshua Ho-Sang




G Braden Holtby
Islander’s 2nd round pick in 2018


Colorado trades a 1st, 3rd and Varlamov for Holtby and a 2nd

Islanders trade Ho-Sang and a 2nd for Varlamov and two 3rds

Washington trades Holtby and a 3rd for Ho-Sang and a 1st

zero interest from the islanders, we are on the verge of signing Mikko Koskinen from the KHL and have Ilya Sorokin, considered to be the best goalie not in the NHL as a prospect

so absolutely no interest from the islanders

 

[72hockey guy]

Sure thing guy, let us know when there are any "credible" reports that Carlson is seeking $8-9M.

be glad to

how about your own coach:

Via The Athletic:

“It’s tough because we have to go in and balance what we have to pay him, (Tom) Wilson and other roster decisions,” Capitals GM Brian MacLellan told The Athletic. “It’s going to come to a point where we have this much to spend. We really like the player, we really like the season.”
MacLellan said there have been some contract conversations but this is likely an offseason decision for the Capitals, who have quietly set themselves up for another Metro division title.
“I’m assuming he’s going to say yes or no and ‘I’m going to see what’s out there. If I can get $8 million somewhere else …’” MacLellan said. “I don’t know. That’s me reading the tea leaves. They haven’t come out and said that. They want to sign, I want to sign.”

Brian MacLellan: John Carlson contract likely an offseason decision for Capitals

"Carlson's completing a six-year, $23.8 million contract with an annual average value of over $3.96 million. A superb puck-moving rearguard in his prime of his career, he could earn over $8 million per season on his next deal.

Appearing last week on Edmonton's TSN 1260, LeBrun said he believed Carlson could be the best defenseman to potentially hit the free-agent market since Ryan Suter in 2012.

NHL Rumor Roundup: John Carlson overlooked, undervalued among potential 2018 free agents

unlike you stephen i dont shade the truth

also as many have noted with the total lack of options on the free agent market for defensemen it is highly conceivable he may spark a bidding war that could drive his market even higher

my 100% guess he winds up in New Jersey at 9M a year, Shero has been known to covet him for years, and how better for the devils to close the gap between the two Metro rivals

and once again Txpd and UM have been saying this or stuff like it all season, so I give credit where its due, you dont have to listen to them or me if you dont wish to, but neither should you willfully lie to other posters

its nowhere near as cut and dried as you make it out to be

I guess Stephen doesn't even read what his own coach says in his local paper or just maybe he just likes to be less than honest, that's why it's best to look up the facts first

Just like he says the cap is going up 7M. It's not. It's going up 2-3M unless the player agree to the escalator. Which isn't known until the players vote on it and it's no sure thing because with it comes a 15% escrow payment that every player must pay. And that isn't decided until the end of june. It's great for free agents...But not for signed players because that's 15% taken out of their salaries.​

 

[72hockey guy]

..

 

[StephenPeat]

NHL Rumor Roundup: John Carlson overlooked, undervalued among potential 2018 free agents

how about the words of your own coach (from the athletic)

“It’s tough because we have to go in and balance what we have to pay him, (Tom) Wilson and other roster decisions,” Capitals GM Brian MacLellan told The Athletic. “It’s going to come to a point where we have this much to spend. We really like the player, we really like the season.”
MacLellan said there have been some contract conversations but this is likely an offseason decision for the Capitals, who have quietly set themselves up for another Metro division title.
“I’m assuming he’s going to say yes or no and ‘I’m going to see what’s out there. If I can get $8 million somewhere else …’” MacLellan said. “I don’t know. That’s me reading the tea leaves. They haven’t come out and said that. They want to sign, I want to sign.”​

So you're response to my request to find a single credible source that suggests that Carlson is asking for $8-9M is to find the most credible source possible that says, in fact, that there are no real indications of what Carlson wants and that Carlson's management has not asked for $8M and you somehow think that vindicates you? Get lost.

Also if you think McLellan is our "coach" that's all anyone needs to know about how knowledgeable you are about the Caps. Maybe stick to the Isles and other things you obviously don't know much about.

 

[StephenPeat]

..

If you're trying to make a comment about the Caps 1st Rd series you obviously haven't been watching all I can say to you is it's a shame we can't play the Isles in the 1st Round every year. We could start to gameplan for the 2nd Round. But if the Isles don't address their goaltending we don't even need to worry about that.

 

[nhlfan1991]

Barrie for holtby

 

[peterthegreat12]

No. Just no.

 

[Revelation]

Barrie for holtby

Getting Barrie means losing Carlson

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

If you want the Avs' 1st rounder for Holtby - 16th overall - it's yours.

I mean,...if Schneider was traded for the 9th overall pick of 2013...

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Barrie for holtby

Hell no

 

[lonelybadger]

Barrie is being saved for O'Reilly....

 

[StephenPeat]

Barrie is being saved for O'Reilly....

...or Stastny or Duchene.