Proposal: Heiskanen to Toronto

[Martin Skoula]

I’m trying to understand where you came to this value.

Let’s assume:
Heiskanen = Marner (a stretch, as I believe all non Leaf fans would pick Heiskanen)
Mikheyev = Cogliano
Sandin = 1st
Pavelski for free??

Seems like it’s favouring Toronto quite a bit

Wow, we get Marleau 2.0 with a 2-year 7 million cap hit for FREE?

 

[M88K]

Won't happen and shouldn't happen, dallas making a trade like this would be beyond stupid. Unless they want to switch to an all offense all the time system. Marner doesn't help in any considerable way with the system the Stars play.
He'd be dumping pucks in and going for a change in about a week, with all offensive creativity coached out of him.


Also of note if something like this did happen
Heiskanen would likely play the right side with Reilly

 

[Jerkbait]

I’m trying to understand where you came to this value.

Let’s assume:
Heiskanen = Marner (a stretch, as I believe all non Leaf fans would pick Heiskanen)
Mikheyev = Cogliano
Sandin = 1st
Pavelski for free??

Seems like it’s favouring Toronto quite a bit

Well as a non leaf fan... marner is better...and better for Toronto.

Mikheyev better than cogliano and younger.

Sandin oo much upside still and u knows.

Joe has negative value at this time ..

The basis is marner isnt going anywhere .. substitute nylnader and it gets talks going

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I’m trying to understand where you came to this value.

Let’s assume:
Heiskanen = Marner (a stretch, as I believe all non Leaf fans would pick Heiskanen)
Mikheyev = Cogliano
Sandin = 1st
Pavelski for free??

Seems like it’s favouring Toronto quite a bit

Sure. I can explain. No problem.

Heiskanen is the best asset in this deal, so the Leafs are sending the other better players to Dallas. Most of it stems from age, salary, and upside.

Pavelski and Cogliano are essentially cap dumps in this deal. Both have a little bit of use, but neither are very good at this point in their careers. Sandin was included to offset the loss of Heiskanen. Most Leafs fans believe he is worth more than a late round first.

 

[varano]

You deserve the team you have if this is your thinking.

Are you normal?

 

[Srsly]

I’m trying to understand where you came to this value.

Let’s assume:
Heiskanen = Marner (a stretch, as I believe all non Leaf fans would pick Heiskanen)
Mikheyev = Cogliano
Sandin = 1st
Pavelski for free??

Seems like it’s favouring Toronto quite a bit

I guess it depends on how you view Pavelski. Admittedly he is one year removed from being a 38 goal goal captain with intangibles through the roof. But this season he looked more like a 7 million dollar, 35 year old forward with a NMC who’s on pace for 46 points. He’s trending the same way Marleau was when the Leafs signed him, and we all know how that turned out.

 

[varano]

Eh, I want Heiskanen but if anything he undersold Marner by calling him an 80pt forward as well.

For the record I would at the very least consider this deal due to positional needs, but you can’t fault someone for not wanting to give up their top defensive prospect and a 22 year old player with a 94pt season under his belt, while taking on a 35 year old 7 million dollar player who showed huge signs of regression that would be buried by the Leafs depth at forward. Pavelski May still be useful next season, but I’d hate to have another Marleau situation on our hands after we what we paid to get out of it.

Also, while Marner is elite but overpaid, we’re not really sure Dubas would do much better when negotiating with Heiskanen so I can’t even favor contracts into the argument yet.

I undersold him because you know how it is. If you call him a 94 point player, all the leaf haters come out with the "Heez only dun dat once broooooo"

 

[FerrisRox]

I don’t think you understand how good Marner is. Leafs fans want to improve our blue line but we can do it without giving up Marner.

I've watched virtually every game of his NHL career. I'm acutely aware of his skillset.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I guess it depends on how you view Pavelski. Admittedly he is one year removed from being a 38 goal goal captain with intangibles through the roof. But this season he looked more like a 7 million dollar, 35 year old forward with a NMC who’s on pace for 46 points. He’s trending the same way Marleau was when the Leafs signed him, and we all know how that turned out.

Yes depends how you see him. I don’t think his value is that of a 45pt player and I see him more as the 38 goal player from San Jose. Playing for a new team for the first time in his career on a very offensively challenged team likely had more to do with the drop in production imo

 

[Martin Skoula]

Yes depends how you see him. I don’t think his value is that of a 45pt player and I see him more as the 38 year old player from San Jose. Playing for a new team for the first time in his career on a very offensively challenged team likely had more to do with the drop in production imo

He's possibly the worst skater in the league lol. Nobody's running a powerplay around feeding Pavelski in his office anymore and he's certainly no longer a threat at ES.

 

[nbwingsfan]

He's possibly the worst skater in the league lol. Nobody's running a powerplay around feeding Pavelski in his office anymore and he's certainly no longer a threat at ES.

That’s your opinion, sure.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Yes depends how you see him. I don’t think his value is that of a 45pt player and I see him more as the 38 year old player from San Jose. Playing for a new team for the first time in his career on a very offensively challenged team likely had more to do with the drop in production imo

I’m sure the drop off has nothing to do with age.

Most teams wouldn’t take Pavelski for free given his contract situation.

 

[M88K]

I’m sure the drop off has nothing to do with age.

Most teams wouldn’t take Pavelski for free given his contract situation.

2 more years, with only 1year NMC left?
Doesn't require protection in the expansion draft, 3 team trade list the last year is kind of ehh. but there are far worse contracts that have moved to say his contract situation is a 100% deal breaker

 

[nbwingsfan]

I’m sure the drop off has nothing to do with age.

Most teams wouldn’t take Pavelski for free given his contract situation.

I’m not saying it has nothing to do with it. I’m saying a new team for the first time in over a decade which also happens to be a team who plays incredibly defensively has a lot to do with it as well.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

2 more years, with only 1year NMC left?
Doesn't require protection in the expansion draft, 3 team trade list the last year is kind of ehh. but there are far worse contracts that have moved to say his contract situation is a 100% deal breaker

I don’t think it’s a deal breaker, that’s why I included him in the deal.

But, the other dude came at me like Pavelski is some big trade piece that has a lot of value.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I don’t think it’s a deal breaker, that’s why I included him in the deal.

But, the other dude came at me like Pavelski is some big trade piece that has a lot of value.

FWIW I’m not coming at you at all, I was genuinely asking how you viewed the value for each asset in this trade.

 

[MagicalRazor]

Heiskanen Is not in the same level as Sandin, Heiskanen is skill level and tool kit is way superior. Saying that I'm more than happy and impressed with Sandin at the moment. I also believe Sandin has alot more in the tank to offer. I'm not ready to give up on him yet even , I feel he can become a #2 D I'd be extremely happy holding on to a #2 D and an elite young 1st line winger for the next 6 hopefully + years.

Really what it is , #2 Young D currently with the potential of being a solid #1 for along time 2 cap dumps and 1st. AND BEFORE it is stated Yes Heiskanen would probably be the leafs best D . But theres other teams where he would be 2-3.

For An elite Winger , blue chip D prospect , and a solid 2 Way top 9 Forward who is ready to be cap controlled for a few years.

Just don't see either team making this trade. Honestly as Toronto I wouldn't do it . Sandin has looked nice

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

FWIW I’m not coming at you at all, I was genuinely asking how you viewed the value for each asset in this trade.

All good. My mistake. Apologies nbwings

 

[biotk]

Sure. I can explain. No problem.

Heiskanen is the best asset in this deal, so the Leafs are sending the other better players to Dallas. Most of it stems from age, salary, and upside.

Pavelski and Cogliano are essentially cap dumps in this deal. Both have a little bit of use, but neither are very good at this point in their careers. Sandin was included to offset the loss of Heiskanen. Most Leafs fans believe he is worth more than a late round first.

I agree with most of what you say here (Heiskanen is the best asset in the deal, Toronto would have to add to Marner) however, this isn't some homer thing where "most Leafs fans" believe. It is a simple fact that Sandin is worth more than a late round first (and won't be added to any deal).

Late first round picks hit on occasion and completely miss on occasion. The Leafs' look like they got a strong hit here and the chances of the Leafs landing a player with a late first round pick that is close to Sandin's value is under 10%. Maybe he doesn't pan out, but his value now is still his value now. I looked at all the late first round D drafted from 2005 until 2018. There were 43 D drafted late (pick 21 onward) in the first round over that 14 year period. It included John Carlson, Niskanen, Maatta on the one end and plenty who never played a game in the NHL or played single digits on the other end. In fact the median career NHL games played for those 43 D is 42 games. Only 5 of the 43 played NHL games before turning 20 (Maatta 78 games, Jokiharju 38, Sandin 27, Jacob Larsson 4, John Carlson 3). Only Sandin was best D at the WJC, although Carlson was also on the all-star team. Only Shea Theodore (87 pts in 108 GP) had better production in the AHL, with John Carlson (48 pts in 77 GP) having roughly the same as Sandin (53 pts in 78 GP and Sandin was younger than either). Other GMs want Sandin because they know his value is way higher than a late first round, but the Leafs' wont be trading him.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I agree with most of what you say here (Heiskanen is the best asset in the deal, Toronto would have to add to Marner) however, this isn't some homer thing where "most Leafs fans" believe. It is a simple fact that Sandin is worth more than a late round first (and won't be added to any deal).

Late first round picks hit on occasion and completely miss on occasion. The Leafs' look like they got a strong hit here and the chances of the Leafs landing a player with a late first round pick that is close to Sandin's value is under 10%. Maybe he doesn't pan out, but his value now is still his value now. I looked at all the late first round D drafted from 2005 until 2018. There were 43 D drafted late (pick 21 onward) in the first round over that 14 year period. It included John Carlson, Niskanen, Maatta on the one end and plenty who never played a game in the NHL or played single digits on the other end. In fact the median career NHL games played for those 43 D is 42 games. Only 5 of the 43 played NHL games before turning 20 (Maatta 78 games, Jokiharju 38, Sandin 27, Jacob Larsson 4, John Carlson 3). Only Sandin was best D at the WJC, although Carlson was also on the all-star team. Only Shea Theodore (87 pts in 108 GP) had better production in the AHL, with John Carlson (48 pts in 77 GP) having roughly the same as Sandin (53 pts in 78 GP and Sandin was younger than either). Other GMs want Sandin because they know his value is way higher than a late first round, but the Leafs' wont be trading him.

I don’t know if I looked at as a late first round pick equaling Sandin.

More so, that the Stars would need some kind of defensive prospect with top-4 potential coming back to them, if they were trading Heiskanen.

I was looking at it as:

Marner/Sandin for Heiskanen/1st round pick

Pavelski/Cogliano for Mikheyev


I’ll try to put it this way. If Heiskanen has more value than Marner, maybe he’s a 18/20 and Marner is a 16/20.

So, to even that out I give Sandin a little bit more value than Dallas’s late first round pick.

Maybe this is a terrible way of explaining it haha

 

[biotk]

I don’t know if I looked at as a late first round pick equaling Sandin.

More so, that the Stars would need some kind of defensive prospect with top-4 potential coming back to them, if they were trading Heiskanen.

I was looking at it as:

Marner/Sandin for Heiskanen/1st round pick

Pavelski/Cogliano for Mikheyev


I’ll try to put it this way. If Heiskanen has more value than Marner, maybe he’s a 18/20 and Marner is a 16/20.

So, to even that out I give Sandin a little bit more value than Dallas’s late first round pick.

Maybe this is a terrible way of explaining it haha

Ok, so why would two cap dumps Pavelski/Cogliano get a very solid asset like Mikheyev instead of costing Dallas assets to get rid of?

While I understand Dallas wanting some kind of defensive prospect with top-4 potential coming back, there are several D in the Leafs organization who qualify, and Sandin isn't just one who qualifies, he is the best one with by far the highest upside and the one who has exceeded expectations by a massive margin since his draft. That can be Dermott - 23 years old and certainly has top-4 potential as he filled that role at the end of season.

So you could start with Heiskanen for Marner and Dermott. Then if Dallas needs to dump cap (which I assume they would) then things could be worked out from there.

Not that Dallas would ever consider trading Heiskanen.

 

[rent free]

I’m trying to understand where you came to this value.

Let’s assume:
Heiskanen = Marner (a stretch, as I believe all non Leaf fans would pick Heiskanen)
Mikheyev = Cogliano
Sandin = 1st
Pavelski for free??

Seems like it’s favouring Toronto quite a bit

Sandin is worth more than a late 1st, mikheyev has more value than cogliano and pavelski is a cap dump.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Sandin is worth more than a late 1st, mikheyev has more value than cogliano and pavelski is a cap dump.

Is Sandin worth more? Maybe to the Leafs because he's further developed but he was a (very) late first on his own. You'd actually be moving up in the draft from where you drafted him.

Cogliano had a rough year but before that was the perfect 3rd line defensive forward, Mikheyev hasn't even really established himself yet as he has a whole ~35 games to his career, but I could see why a team might prefer the cap savings.

Depends how you see Pavelski. Hes one season removed from 38 goals and a team leader. Was it a down year for playing on a new team for the first time in his career, a team which is also notoriously bad offensively in general? Or was it his new norm? Going to take another season to conclude that.

One bad season doesn't make someone a cap dump already.

 

[Jerkbait]

Is Sandin worth more? Maybe to the Leafs because he's further developed but he was a (very) late first on his own. You'd actually be moving up in the draft from where you drafted him.

Cogliano had a rough year but before that was the perfect 3rd line defensive forward, Mikheyev hasn't even really established himself yet as he has a whole ~35 games to his career, but I could see why a team might prefer the cap savings.

Depends how you see Pavelski. Hes one season removed from 38 goals and a team leader. Was it a down year for playing on a new team for the first time in his career, a team which is also notoriously bad offensively in general? Or was it his new norm? Going to take another season to conclude that.

One bad season doesn't make someone a cap dump already.

1. Sandins potential is worth more.

2. Cogliano doesnt have the foot speed. Not enough offensive punch left. He would be a fourth line guy on leafs. Overpaid.

3. One bad year doenst neccesarily make you a cap dump but at his age it does .....too much and not enough production left. Speed is a big factor

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Is Sandin worth more? Maybe to the Leafs because he's further developed but he was a (very) late first on his own. You'd actually be moving up in the draft from where you drafted him.

Cogliano had a rough year but before that was the perfect 3rd line defensive forward, Mikheyev hasn't even really established himself yet as he has a whole ~35 games to his career, but I could see why a team might prefer the cap savings.

Depends how you see Pavelski. Hes one season removed from 38 goals and a team leader. Was it a down year for playing on a new team for the first time in his career, a team which is also notoriously bad offensively in general? Or was it his new norm? Going to take another season to conclude that.

One bad season doesn't make someone a cap dump already.

If you polled every GM in the league and asked if they wanted a late 1st or Sandin every single GM would say Sandin.... his draft position doesnt matter, he has exceeded all expectations since then and looks a really good bet to be at least a top 4D.