Has McDavid's peak surpassed Howe's peak?

Has McDavid surpassed Howe's peak?


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Midnight Judges

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I always defer to other sports (soccer, tennis, baseball, football, basketball, golf etc..) where GOATs seemingly can happen at any point of a sport's history; notably in the current age despite expanded talent pools. I think GOAT talent simply rises to the top in any era as it is as much a freakish desire to be the best and work ethic as it is raw talent.

That is illogical.

If a talent pool has a size of X, then let's say the chances of that talent pool having 1 generational talent is Y.

If the modern talent pool has a size of X * 4, then the chances of that talent pool having 1 generational talent is Y * 4.

In other words, if the likelihood of the first generation was to have 1 generational talent, then the larger talent pool has a likelihood to have 4 players of that same caliber.

Except instead of respecting those players the same as you did for the first player, you're going to assume they are worse because they are competing with each other and taking awards from each other, etc. The player from the larger talent pool - even if he is identical in skill, talent, and on-ice contributions - is likely going to be far less of an outlier relative to his generation.
 
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Overrated

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I always defer to other sports (soccer, tennis, baseball, football, basketball, golf etc..) where GOATs seemingly can happen at any point of a sport's history; notably in the current age despite expanded talent pools. I think GOAT talent simply rises to the top in any era as it is as much a freakish desire to be the best and work ethic as it is raw talent.
That is because people do put expanded talent pools into consideration and don't just rely on the silly "vs 5th best player" nonsense. That is why a lot of people disregard a lot of Pele's or even more so Wilt Chamberlain's accomplishments.
 

Professor What

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I don't think that it's flawed at all it's just an observation and the original starting point was the issue here.

As well that poster is notorious for downplaying the differences in talent between the 2 eras and the overall differences.

If one thinks that McDavid is the superior offensive player in his peak that's a separate thing than discrediting Howe and it was unduly harsh as I said even if one thinks that Howe is the better "overall "player at his peak.


One of the problems we have is that we are viewing 2 players peak 70 years apart in an entirely different NHL and the baseline we have is offensive statistics but even there we can really compare them fairly as any way to compare them comes with bias and even if we try our hardest to remove that bias we simply don't have the same sets of information for the 2 players.
I don't see why we're not seeing eye to eye on the first sentence, as I think from some of the rest of your post we're in agreement on the final question. What I'm saying is that looking at the comparison as 99% offense is flawed. We all know that there are multiple facets of the game of hockey, and that's a one-dimensional view. It misses a large part of the question, and that alone makes it flawed.

On the flip side of your second point, there are also plenty of posters around here that are notorious for assuming that modern has to be better. It's a foreign concept to them that even if the overall talent pool has improved that the cream of the crop could still be standout and compare to later greats. I take issue with that. Bleeding over into your third point, I don't think the post was harsh for just that reason. There does seem to be a concerted effort around here to discredit Howe in particular. There seems to be an objection to the idea that someone that played as long ago as he did could stand head and shoulders above the rest of the sport.

Now, I agree that it's not exactly elegant comparing two players that played so far apart, and I agree that bias comes in. Bias comes in to any comparison. We all have biases, and the best we can do is try to acknowledge them and adjust accordingly. That's not perfect either, of course, but the thing that frustrates me in comparisons like this is when there's little to no effort to check bias, and I've seen a lot of that in this thread.

I agree with you on this but will add this, the underlying assumption in the HOH section and this is broadly speaking in general terms, is that ALL eras have to be treated equally and then efforts to compare and contrast get lost to the historical bias as some refer to the counter of the main boards regency bias.

The Big 4 is a perfect example of this as all 4 guys are indeed all time greats but the Big 4 is set in stone for the HOH section as a whole in the sense that it relies on numbers, ie counting stats, # of top 5 finishes and more importantly # of SC's.

This is also a general sports observations as most people feel to be the absolute best you have to win even if the circumstances in an 06 league and a 32 team salary cap league are entirely different.

Howe probably is the more "complete player" but we really don't have enough information to compare if his completeness overcomes the offensive advantage McDavid might have when comparing peaks.
Again, the bias thing comes in on the first statement of this section. I do agree that some people here come with the idea that all eras have to be treated equally, but I don't think that's the case as a whole. Take a look at the top players lists that have been compiled, and as a rule, the older the era, the lower the top players rank. I think that once you get to the Original Six era that starts to level out (probably because the game starts to resemble what we know today as far as rules and the like go), and certainly it does by the expansion era, but the earliest eras don't get the same treatment as later eras.

I don't agree that the Big Four gets special treatment on the board, because I believe that they legitimately do stand head and shoulders above the rest of the sport, but I do agree with you on the stat and Cup counting. In fact, that's one of my biggest pet peeves when people in general decide greatness. A few years ago, I had a friend get almost fighting mad at me because I didn't consider Henri Richard the greatest center in Canadiens history on the power of 11 Stanley Cups, but he also mercilessly ragged another friend who considered Tom Brady the greatest quarterback in history on the power of his Super Bowl wins. Anyway, I think there's a lot of inconsistency in the idea of stat or Cup counting, but I think everybody already knows how I feel about that.

The reason that I think we're probably in agreement on the final question is that you say that you do believe that Howe was the more complete player. I do agree with you that we don't have the best resources for much of his career to compare to more modern players, but we do the best we can in good faith. I take issue with the lack of good faith in unchecked biases, whatever they may be. But what we do know about is McDavid. And we know that the physical game and the defensive game just isn't there. Now, that can be overcome, but you have to put up Gretzky-like levels of offense to do that. McDavid is one of the top offensive forces the game has ever seen, but so was Howe, and I simply can't see an argument that McDavid is at Gretzky's level offensively.

Anyway, I didn't address the last part of your post because I don't really have a lot to add that wouldn't be repeating some of what I've already said or I don't really have anything at all to say about it. Sorry for such a long post, but at least I think we've got an actual dialog going on here.
 

daver

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That is because people do put expanded talent pools into consideration and don't just rely on the silly "vs 5th best player" nonsense. That is why a lot of people disregard a lot of Pele's or even more so Wilt Chamberlain's accomplishments.

So the current best player in any sport is the best ever? That certainly makes an all-time ranking really easy.

So McDavid > Crosby > Jagr > Mario > Wayne etc...?
 

Overrated

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So the current best player in any sport is the best ever? That certainly makes an all-time ranking really easy.

So McDavid > Crosby > Jagr > Mario > Wayne etc...?
I don't think that is what I said. Also even though some people seem to think so we're definitely not seeing the deepest pool of talent ever right now. There is plenty of evidence suggesting there are fewer people playing the sport than in the past.
 

daver

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I don't think that is what I said. Also even though some people seem to think so we're definitely not seeing the deepest pool of talent ever right now. There is plenty of evidence suggesting there are fewer people playing the sport than in the past.

But there are plenty of examples of players having expected performances through the "ups" and "downs" of talent pools/league strength (e.g. Wayne, Mario and Jagr) . It seems unreasonable to boost or handicap a player blindly based on this. There are certainly some close to consensus views on different eras and how a player may have been affected:

Richard's 50 in 50 needs context.

Orr's, Wayne's, and Mario's peak raw point totals during the 25 year timeframe that saw the league expand five times over seem like another that needs context. I.e. more offense equals wider gaps between the elite scorers, lower scoring equals more parity.

To counter this to some extent, Howe's continued elite play through the "tougher" '60s is an example of GOAT talent shining through regardless.

You can reasonably draw a straight line from McDavid to Wayne to conclude that McDavid is not Wayne/Mario level, unless you want to place peak Jagr and peak Crosby there too. We saw enough of Mario and Jagr together to clearly conclude that Mario was clearly above Jagr.

From there, how much farther a jump is it to compare Wayne, the best players of the '70s, and Hull, Beliveau and Howe?
 

Overrated

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Orr's, Wayne's, and Mario's peak raw point totals during the 25 year timeframe that saw the league expand five times over seem like another that needs context. I.e. more offense equals wider gaps between the elite scorers, lower scoring equals more parity.

To counter this to some extent, Howe's continued elite play through the "tougher" '60s is an example of GOAT talent shining through regardless.
I am not disregarding him but as I said earlier I'd rate his domination level more based on how much better he was compared to the average and not compared to the 5th best. Of course context still has to be applied. In 1965 the average NHL player was obviously better than in 1969. But if we agree that more or less the league size grew with the size of the game then it makes absolutely no sense to compare to an arbitrarily chosen number rather than to the mean.

You can reasonably draw a straight line from McDavid to Wayne to conclude that McDavid is not Wayne/Mario level, unless you want to place peak Jagr and peak Crosby there too. We saw enough of Mario and Jagr together to clearly conclude that Mario was clearly above Jagr.

From there, how much farther a jump is it to compare Wayne, the best players of the '70s, and Hull, Beliveau and Howe?
Wayne peaked just a few years after Lafleur and would score about 80 points more than him. I think that is where the line drawn shows how much better Gretzky and Lemieux were offensively speaking compared to the stars from the prior years. That is why I think Jagr is clearly above all pre-Gretzky forwards. Since I view Jagr as slightly better than Ovi/Crosby and since likewise I view McDavid as slightly better than them I rank even McDavid above all pre-Gretzky forwards.
 
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daver

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I am not disregarding him but as I said earlier I'd rate his domination level more based on how much better he was compared to the average and not compared to the 5th best. Of course context still has to be applied. In 1965 the average NHL player was obviously better than in 1969. But if we agree that more or less the league size grew with the size of the game then it makes absolutely no sense to compare to an arbitrarily chosen number rather than to the mean.

I agree that league size needs to be considered in measuring players from different sized leagues. Using Top 10 from the current era to calculate the "average" vs. the Top 5 from the O6 seems to be statistically defensible based on the average % behind the #1/#2 scorers over a 20 year timeframe.

I.e. The #10 scorer, on average from 2000 to 2020 finished a similar % behind the #1/#2 scorer as the #5 scorer, on average, from 1947 to 1967.

This assumes that the leading scorers in any given year would be the #1/#2 scorers, or very close, in any given season.

One could immediately dismiss this by saying it is more impressive to be the #1/#2
scorer in a league that has 5 times as many players but I will address this in the next post.
 

daver

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Wayne peaked just a few years after Lafleur and would score about 80 points more than him.

Raw numbers are meaningless without context. League scoring went up significantly from 1975 to 1982 so it is frankly disingenuous to make a claim on raw numbers.

Lafleur was a dominant force against some of the same competition that Wayne would face just one or two years later like Dionne and Bossy. An end-of-peak Lafleur was superior to a prime/close to peak Bossy. It is not rocket science to assume that Lafleur would still do as well, relatively speaking, if he was just two or three years younger.

Peak Lafleur ('75 to '80) was as statistically dominant as peak Jagr, Crosby and McDavid.

I think that is where the line drawn shows how much better Gretzky and Lemieux were offensively speaking compared to the stars from the prior years.

With the much needed context applied above, you can say that they were similarly better vs. the other stars throughout their careers. This means you don't stop the line when Wayne entered the league, that makes no sense.

That is why I think Jagr is clearly above all pre-Gretzky forwards. Since I view Jagr as slightly better than Ovi/Crosby and since likewise I view McDavid as slightly better than them I rank even McDavid above all pre-Gretzky forwards.

There is no reason to believe that peak Lafleur is not as dominant as peak Jagr unless you disregard obvious statistical context.
 

Overrated

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Raw numbers are meaningless without context. League scoring went up significantly from 1975 to 1982 so it is frankly disingenuous to make a claim on raw numbers.
The competition also went up. Not only the game was growing rapidly throughout the 70s but the number of pro teams in North America was 18 in the NHL and further and 11 to 14 in the WHA. That is 29-33 pro teams in North America! And it's also not true that WHA was that extremely inferior to the NHL. I know some people here call it a minor league but the WHA had a positive record against the NHL. Yes they didn't play any games against Montreal and Buffalo and only one game against the Bruins, Islanders and the Flyers. Most of the games were played against weaker NHL teams but the record is quite impressive: 34-22-7.

In 1975 91% of all players were Canadian, in 82 it was 81%. So we are talking about a league which was heavily reduced in size and a league which all of a contained many Swedish, Finnish stars. The talent pool competing for those 21 team spots was significantly larger than the talent pool competing for the 29-33 teams prior. I think that 15% increase in scoring might even be less impactful regarding the offensive output than the league quality. if I had to bet on a what if hypothetical I'd bet that Gretzky would score more in 75 and not less.


Peak Lafleur ('75 to '80) was as statistically dominant as peak Jagr, Crosby and McDavid.

With the much needed context applied above, you can say that they were similarly better vs. the other stars throughout their careers. This means you don't stop the line when Wayne entered the league, that makes no sense.

There is no reason to believe that peak Lafleur is not as dominant as peak Jagr unless you disregard obvious statistical context.
That is obvious nonsense. Peak Jagr was maybe 25-30 points away from peak Lemieux, not 70+ like Lafleur was against Gretzky. You liked "drawing lines" in your previous post. Let's draw one here. Dionne who was just slightly worse than Lafleur played a ton of international hockey as he wasn't particularly successful in his playoffs and he clearly showed he wasn't on the level of the best Soviet forwards. Jagr on the other hand dominated the 90s version of the Soviet stars (Bure, Mogilny, Fedorov) who weren't any worse than the Soviet stars of the previous decades.
 

vadim sharifijanov

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In a March 4, 1955 newspaper article, it says "Gordie Howe has finally broken his baffling slump..."

"...scoreless in his last 10 games."

"Until his sudden third period spree (three goals), Howe had been in the worst slump of his brilliant career. ...nobody knew what the trouble was."

Not sure if it came out later...but...

There was talk about a sprained right shoulder earlier in the season, but it wasn't dredged up here...

Doesn't mean it's not an injury or something else...Mark was born late in the '55 season, Marty late in the '54 season. Maybe there's something there...I'm not sure.

this to me is super interesting

i think all of us who have had kids remember not being on our game at work for that first year. i’m sure this is not uncommon at all for pro athletes. you’re on the road a lot and your sleep rhythms are disrupted, home games are supposed to be when you recharge. but you’re not sleeping because the baby just... won’t... sleep.

but the other part of it is, for guys at the highest level, and i mean the best of the best, most of them are almost psychopathically locked in, mentally. and when you are michael jordan obsessive, or kobe bryan obsessive, or patrick roy obsessive, i think it’s inevitable that you lose some of that edge when you have another person’s life to think about.

luongo is my example because i watched it firsthand. ’04 luongo was embarking on an all time goaltending peak. when he came to vancouver in ’07, that was probably the greatest season ever to not win the vezina. in ’08, he was cruising to the vezina for the first 2/3 of the year. as of feb 7, his stat line was 46 games, 23 wins, 2.13 GAA, .925 SV%, 6 shutouts. but his wife was having a difficult pregnancy and he spent much of the spring dealing with that. in the stretch run, he was flying back to florida on off days, as was widely (and inappropriately) reported on by the vancouver media.

by the end of the ’08 season, his stat line was 73 games, 35 wins, 2.38 GAA, .917 GAA, 6 shutouts. the canucks ended up winning only one of their last eight games and missing the playoffs, leading to dave nonis getting fired. obviously, luongo ended up rebounding and finishing as a vezina finalist several more times, en route to a fulsome hall of fame career. but the luongo from ’04 to 2/3 of the way through the ’08 season, that guy was never seen again. and rightfully so, he was a dad now.

so it makes total sense not just that howe had an incredibly uncharacteristic season in 1955, during the first year of his first kid’s life, but also that as great as howe was over the next fifteen years, he was never 1951 to 1954 howe ever again.
 
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buffalowing88

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I can't believe the Jagr stuff has trickled down to this board. I posted on an entirely unrelated Steelers forum recently about their best QBs and it devolved into the best Penguins and there were so many who believed that Jagr was the top player from 98-05 when Crosby took their mantle.

Not a battle worth fighting.

But I will say McDavid is starting to make that entry into the religious top-four. We say he has plenty of time left but, in reality, his best years are behind him. He's hitting his late 20s and can have 3-4 more great years but after that, if he doesn't have team success, he will fall right back out of that window.

The Oilers are gearing up for a run and I think if they manage to win it in the next year or two, he can make a case. We'll see...
 

daver

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I can't believe the Jagr stuff has trickled down to this board. I posted on an entirely unrelated Steelers forum recently about their best QBs and it devolved into the best Penguins and there were so many who believed that Jagr was the top player from 98-05 when Crosby took their mantle.

Why wouldn't Jagr have been the best player when he was winning consecutive Art Rosses and two Lindsays on a team that didn't have the firepower to compete for the Cup when Mario wasn't playing?

Isn't that exactly what McDavid, a similarly all out offensive player, has been doing?
 
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overpass

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If we're comparing Howe's scoring peak to McDavid's scoring peak,

Is it accurate to say that McDavid wasn't really showing up in his own end at 5-on-5 from 2017-18 through 2022-23? His goals against, shots against, and chances against while he was on the ice for those seasons were all pretty high. And now this season they're down quite a bit.

Howe definitely had a reputation as an all-around player during his peak. For example, Lloyd Percival compared him to the Rocket in 1951, and rated Howe as superior in 16 of the 17 categories, losing only in skating acceleration.
 
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The Panther

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Is it accurate to say that McDavid wasn't really showing up in his own end at 5-on-5 from 2017-18 through 2022-23? His goals against, shots against, and chances against while he was on the ice for those seasons were all pretty high. And now this season they're down quite a bit.
No, it's not fair. As someone who watches nearly every game McDavid plays, I would say he's been quite good "defensively" (I'll come back to my problem with that term later) since midway through 2021-22. He was wonderful defensively in the '22 playoffs while simultaneously having one of the greatest playoff offensive runs, ever. He was solid all last season as well.

The difference this year (since game 13, anyway) is that the Oilers as a team are just far better defensively --- not that McDavid is.

_____________

About "defensively": I understand the desire to evaluate forwards' defensive abilities, of course. But sometimes we lose sight of the big picture. In hockey, defense doesn't exist in a vacuum as it does for the fielding team in baseball. Offense and defense co-exist, every time, all the time. They're not really separable. So, the thing that matters, as I see it, is the difference in scoring (not the for and against individual totals) a player makes while on the ice, and this can be compared to when that player is off the ice. Zone possession time and shots at the net, etc., can also be considerations.

This is a long-winded way to present my opinion that how many goals are going in against the player isn't a just way to evaluate how effective the player is.
 
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Staniowski

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McDavid is certainly a much better offensive player than Howe was. McDavid will almost certainly win more scoring titles (maybe several more) against substantially better competition (amongst scoring leaders) than anything Howe faced. During Howe's peak, the quality of scorers in the NHL was very weak and extremely shallow. The scoring talent around Howe's age was probably the weakest in comparison to any other star NHL player of the past 75 years. McDavid's similar-age competition is very strong and deep.

There is no doubt that McDavid is in the process of surpassing Howe on all-time lists (if he hasn't already) for most of the hockey world, and it's inevitable that more than 95% will have McDavid ahead very soon (within a few years at the latest). The vast majority of hockey people consider McDavid to be very special.
 
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The Panther

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During Howe's peak, the quality of scorers in the NHL was very weak and extremely shallow.
And yet Howe managed to be top-five in scoring for 20 consecutive seasons, a period that covered three different eras of NHL history.

At age 40, post-expansion, Howe went +45 on a mediocre club and outscored Bobby Orr, Danny Grant, Ken Hodge, and Yvan Cournoyer, all of whom were 15 to 20 years younger than him. This isn't prime Howe --- this is when he was 40. It's hardly a stretch to say that if he'd been 24 instead of middle-aged that he would have beaten all NHL players of the post-expansion era in scoring, with the possible exception of peak-Esposito who was on the League's highest-scoring team.

Aged 47 in the WHA, Howe outscored Mark Howe and matched Anders Hedberg in scoring, two players who were 23 to 27 years younger than him. Mark Howe was a solid NHL player (mostly on D) through the mid-1990s, while Hedberg was a point-per-game NHL player at the turn of the 1980s. And Howe was basically outscoring them when he was a quarter-century older.

McDavid is my favorite player, but let's get one thing straight: No argument about "he peaked in a weak era" should ever be applied to Gordie Howe, who peaked in three different eras.
 

Dennis Bonvie

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McDavid is certainly a much better offensive player than Howe was. McDavid will almost certainly win more scoring titles (maybe several more) against substantially better competition (amongst scoring leaders) than anything Howe faced. During Howe's peak, the quality of scorers in the NHL was very weak and extremely shallow. The scoring talent around Howe's age was probably the weakest in comparison to any other star NHL player of the past 75 years. McDavid's similar-age competition is very strong and deep.

There is no doubt that McDavid is in the process of surpassing Howe on all-time lists (if he hasn't already) for most of the hockey world, and it's inevitable that more than 95% will have McDavid ahead very soon (within a few years at the latest). The vast majority of hockey people consider McDavid to be very special.

I guess that will have to start next season.
 

Thenameless

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It seems like OP is only comparing offensive stats. If that's what we're doing here, then I'd say it's close.
If we are comparing overall impact on hockey games, then I'd say it's not close. The big difference is that when Howe played, physicality and intimidation were a bigger part of the game. Howe was not intimidated by other players, and other players found him to be intimidating. I don't blame McDavid for this, as it really is less a part of today's game. But, you still have to credit Howe for being able to boost his team's chances to win by means other than just offensive output. Howe just plain affects winning more.
 

The Panther

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It seems like OP is only comparing offensive stats. If that's what we're doing here, then I'd say it's close.
If we are comparing overall impact on hockey games, then I'd say it's not close. The big difference is that when Howe played, physicality and intimidation were a bigger part of the game. Howe was not intimidated by other players, and other players found him to be intimidating. I don't blame McDavid for this, as it really is less a part of today's game. But, you still have to credit Howe for being able to boost his team's chances to win by means other than just offensive output. Howe just plain affects winning more.
I suspect you are correct in your Howe-analysis, but it's hard for me to conclude anything as I didn't see Howe play. Nor do the stats from Howe's salad years give me enough to form any opinion in an "overall player" comparison to, say, McDavid.

How much did Howe move the needle for his clubs? It's not easy to say, but my impression of Howe's career c.1955 to 1970 (i.e., post-Wings' dynasty) is that it was a bit like Ray Bourque with the Bruins c. 1984 to 1996 -- i.e., there might be one or two brief periods when the respective clubs were in contention and had a solid roster (Wings '63/'64; Bruins '90), but basically the outlook going into every season was: "If Howe / Bourque breaks his leg in training camp, we're doomed." Who was it who said, in the early sixties (I think): "There are four good NHL clubs -- Toronto, Montreal, Boston, and Gordie Howe."

We do have Howe's even strength results (Plus/Minus) from 1959-60 to the end, but of course this means it begins in his 14th season, so it entirely skips his peak years. Mostly his results are quite good, as you'd expect, and the more so given that Detroit was about an average club for much of this period (there is an odd dip in 1963-64 as Howe goes -10). Even at age 42, and with the Red Wings falling to the borrom of the standings, Howe's -3 is the best of any player on that club who dressed for 38+ games.

I'm getting a bit off-topic here, but Howe's 1977-78 season with the WHA Whalers looks so impressive, statistically. The WHA by now consisted of 8 clubs --- so it wasn't as oversized as two years earlier (presumably slightly stronger competition) --- and New England finished in 2nd place. Howe led the club with 96 points and a +46, at age 49-50! That placed him 9th in scoring and 4th-best (of 245 skaters) in plus/minus. This is all pretty crazy for a guy old enough to be a Grandfather.

What of all this suggests is that @Thenameless is likely correct in his analysis of Howe's multifacted influence on-ice.

Getting back to the McDavid comparison: Does McDavid move the needle as much as Howe did, relative to era? I agree he's probably not as 'multifaceted' (very few players are nowadays), but I think the stats pretty consistently have shown that the Oilers have been poor when McDavid was off the ice and good when he was on. Look no further than this season -- when McDavid was injured (missing two games) and moving at half-speed, the Oilers were vying with San Jose to be the worst team in the NHL. After McDavid suddenly came back to full form, the Oilers have been the best team in the League.

But of course the eras are very different. Back in the day, I think individual players could dominate the ice more than players can now, with systems and conservative play being dominant (not to mention shorter shifts, etc.).
 

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