Has McDavid's peak surpassed Howe's peak?

[bobholly39]

I think for all-time peak, I have Gretzky/Orr/Lemieux as top 3 (probably in that order), and a gap until you reach Howe at #4.

Howe has a fantastic peak, worthy of the big 4, yet still a little behind them. He is part of the big 4 in my opinion not mostly because of his peak (unlike other 3), but because of his incredible consistency in his prime and elite longevity on top of just his peak.

Or another way of saying this is - I personally never felt Howe's peak was as untouchable as the other 3. So - has McDavid surpassed him?

Scoring Finishes:

McDavid 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2
Howe 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3

Each are top 2 in scoring 7x. 6 ross to 5 for Howe, but in a 32 team league vs mostly a 6 team league. Is this already advantage McDavid? I think it is.

Best regular seasons: McDavid 21 & 23 vs Howe 52 & 53. Does McDavid also have the edge here?

Playoffs are a bit light for McDavid - but he does have some memorable individual performances (especially 2022), even though he probably needs to add more.

How do you think peak Howe compares to peak McDavid? Has McDavid matched Howe's peak, or surpassed him?

Click to read more...

 

[daver]

It all depends on how you view McDavid's peak level of offensive play vs. Howe's peak level of offensive play. Howe's all around play can close/widen the gap between them so it is good to qualify that a comparison could be muddied if one doesn't separate offense and all around play.

McDavid has been reaching Jagr/Crosby level of per game offensive production; a level that is clearly below Wayne/Mario level. He likely surpasses Jagr's peak due to hitting his prime in his 2nd season and surpasses Crosby's peak due to healthier seasons.

Howe reached a higher single season peak than his era peers (Beliveau, Mikita, Hull), and had multiple other dominant seasons that matched the single best seasons of those players. I will take Howe's level of domination over his era peers over McDavid's relative domination over his era peers.

Howe is the best pre-1967, McDavid is Top 5 (pacing for #3) in post-1967.

With that being said, this means I will favour Howe's statistical resume over McDavid's despite their numerical similarities so voted Howe.

If McDavid had another one or two 2022/23-like seasons, then it gets very close.

 

[daver]

Each are top 2 in scoring 7x. 6 ross to 5 for Howe, but in a 32 team league vs mostly a 6 team league. Is this already advantage McDavid? I think it is.

This opens the door to "what if" scenarios. Does McDavid win Art Rosses against Howe's Art Ross wins?

McDavid's Ross wins in 16/17, 17/18 and 21/22 are solidly not as dominant as any of Howe's wins from 50/51 to 53/54.

McDavid's 20/21 and 22/23 wins are in the same tier as three of those four wins but I cannot quite put it them there with his 52/53 season (and 20/21 still needs a bit of COVID context).

 

[TheGoldenJet]

If peak McDavid plays 75+ games this season and still loses the Art Ross to MacKinnon/Kucherov level players, I am going to have to rethink my position on this.

 

[Acallabeth]

I mean, even that criterion requires us to consider McDavid's Art Rosses somehow better than Howe's (which is very much debatable itself).

But Howe was not just a point scoring machine. He led the league in goals 5 times (McDavid 1), was a much more complete player than McDavid, leaves fewer question marks in playoffs and was perhaps a greater ambassador for the game.

Even McDavid will need to do a lot more to surpass Howe's peak.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Offensive comparison to next closest Canadian non-linemate

Player Season	Points	#2 Points	#3 Points	Vs2	Vs3
Howe 53	95	61	59	1.56	1.61
McDavid 21	105	69	67	1.52	1.56
McDavid 23	153	111	99	1.38	1.54
Howe 52	86	65	61	1.32	1.41
Howe 51	86	66	62	1.30	1.39
Howe 54	81	67	54	1.21	1.50
McDavid 19	116	100	100	1.16	1.16
McDavid 17	100	89	85	1.12	1.18
McDavid 22	123	115	106	1.07	1.16
Howe 57	89	84	77	1.06	1.16
Howe 63	86	81	76	1.06	1.13
McDavid 18	108	102	97	1.06	1.11
McDavid 20	97	93	87	1.04	1.11

A lot of it will come down to how you view McDavid 21. Short season, no inter-divisional play, no travel, just the general weirdness of COVID. If you give him full marks, it's legitimately close to Howe's peak.

McDavid 23 is a clear step below Howe 53, but it's also ahead of any other Howe season.

For full seasons, that Howe takes 1,3,4,5 makes it Howe for me. If you give full points to McDavid 21 it becomes a lot closer.

Overall, I think McDavid is looking like the highest non-Big Four peak ever. And he's getting surprisingly close to Howe. But I do still think there's a slight offensive tilt to Howe.

In terms of 2-way play, there's a massive massive gap. And that's why I think it's still a vote for Howe.

 

[daver]

Offensive comparison to next closest Canadian non-linemate

Player Season	Points	#2 Points	#3 Points	Vs2	Vs3
Howe 53	95	61	59	1.56	1.61
McDavid 21	105	69	67	1.52	1.56
McDavid 23	153	111	99	1.38	1.54
Howe 52	86	65	61	1.32	1.41
Howe 51	86	66	62	1.30	1.39
Howe 54	81	67	54	1.21	1.50
McDavid 19	116	100	100	1.16	1.16
McDavid 17	100	89	85	1.12	1.18
McDavid 22	123	115	106	1.07	1.16
Howe 57	89	84	77	1.06	1.16
Howe 63	86	81	76	1.06	1.13
McDavid 18	108	102	97	1.06	1.11
McDavid 20	97	93	87	1.04	1.11

Howe.

Is eliminating non-Canadians in comparisons the norm now?

Are we sure that McDavid scores as much without Draisaitl on his line?

What about adding a star Russian or two to Howe's Wings. Maybe he scores even better.

 

[MadLuke]

What about adding a star Russian or two to Howe's Wings. Maybe he scores even better.

Ted Lindsay-Delvecchio-Kelly at D will be hard to beat

 

[daver]

Ted Lindsay-Delvecchio-Kelly at D will be hard to beat

Who knows what happens when you simply add or erase players from lineups. It is pretty unreasonable to expect the exact dame outcome will occur.

History shows that GOATs like Jagr, Mario and Wayne were not affected by the seemingly earthshaking addition of non-Canadians. All it meant was there were a handful of players who were marginally better than the Canadians they replaced on the 1st line/2nd line.

It makes zero sense to take this and simply erase the Kucherov's, Draisaitl's, Malin's and Ovechkin's from a statistical comparison.

 

[MadLuke]

Are you saying that Howe's numbers are inflated due to his teammates?

It is not obvious that he received less help than McDavid having the chance to have Drai on his team to me.

51-59 best ppg season (at least 41 games played)

59 Beliveau: 1.42
59 Moore...: 1.37
53 Howe....: 1.36
57 Howe....: 1.27
56 Beliveau: 1.26
59 Bathgate: 1.26
52 Howe....: 1.23
51 Howe....: 1.23
57 Beliveau: 1.22
57 Lindsay.: 1.21

2015-2023 best ppg season (at least 41 games played), will see this year Kucherov could post a 1.7 and close the gap

21 McDavid..: 1.88
23 McDavid..: 1.87
23 Draisailt: 1.60
23 MacKinnon: 1.56
19 Kucherov.: 1.56
20 Draisailt: 1.55
22 Mcdavid..: 1.54
20 McDavid..: 1.52
21 Draisailt: 1.50
19 McDavid..: 1.49

Scoring move year over year obviously, specially between 2015 and now, but more so there is way more to Howe impact on a game of hockey than accumulating points.

You can give offensive peak to McDavid, seem to have separating himself more in a deeper league, without having answered this question.

 

[daver]

It is not obvious that he received less help than McDavid having the chance to have Drai on his team to me.

51-59 best ppg season (at least 41 games played)

59 Beliveau: 1.42
59 Moore...: 1.37
53 Howe....: 1.36
57 Howe....: 1.27
56 Beliveau: 1.26
59 Bathgate: 1.26
52 Howe....: 1.23
51 Howe....: 1.23
57 Beliveau: 1.22
57 Lindsay.: 1.21

You know this is completely misleading right? And I hope you have checked the citizenship of all those players.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Offensive comparison to next closest Canadian non-linemate

Player Season	Points	#2 Points	#3 Points	Vs2	Vs3
Howe 53	95	61	59	1.56	1.61
McDavid 21	105	69	67	1.52	1.56
McDavid 23	153	111	99	1.38	1.54
Howe 52	86	65	61	1.32	1.41
Howe 51	86	66	62	1.30	1.39
Howe 54	81	67	54	1.21	1.50
McDavid 19	116	100	100	1.16	1.16
McDavid 17	100	89	85	1.12	1.18
McDavid 22	123	115	106	1.07	1.16
Howe 57	89	84	77	1.06	1.16
Howe 63	86	81	76	1.06	1.13
McDavid 18	108	102	97	1.06	1.11
McDavid 20	97	93	87	1.04	1.11

A lot of it will come down to how you view McDavid 21. Short season, no inter-divisional play, no travel, just the general weirdness of COVID. If you give him full marks, it's legitimately close to Howe's peak.

McDavid 23 is a clear step below Howe 53, but it's also ahead of any other Howe season.

For full seasons, that Howe takes 1,3,4,5 makes it Howe for me. If you give full points to McDavid 21 it becomes a lot closer.

Overall, I think McDavid is looking like the highest non-Big Four peak ever. And he's getting surprisingly close to Howe. But I do still think there's a slight offensive tilt to Howe.

In terms of 2-way play, there's a massive massive gap. And that's why I think it's still a vote for Howe.

Do you know how McDavid compares to Jagr under this approach?

 

[MadLuke]

You know this is completely misleading right?

It is ?

 

[daver]

It is ?

You might as well just compare Howe's PPG to McDavid's PPG and call it a landslide win for McDavid.

 

[MadLuke]

You might as well just compare Howe's PPG to McDavid's PPG and call it a landslide win for McDavid.

It is true that scoring move a lot in the 50s (like in the 2010s), maybe too much, but I am not sure 1956 is that different than 1953 or 51....

 

[daver]

It is true that scoring move a lot in the 50s (like in the 2010s), maybe too much, but I am not sure 1956 is that different than 1953 or 51....

Howe's PPG - 1.36

Beliveau's PPG - 1.26


League GPG in 52/53 - 2.40

League GPG in 55/56 - 2.53


The # of PPG scorers in 52/53 - 2

The # of PPG scorers in 55/56 - 5


The # of 50 point scorers in 52/53 - 7

The # of 50 point scorers in 55/56 - 13


% ahead of 10th place scorer (PPG) - Howe - 100%

% ahead of 10th place scorer (PPG) - Beliveau - 68%


Quite a bit different.

 

[MadLuke]

Quite a bit different.

How much it is because of different rules-equipment-etc... dynamics or Delvecchio being a more difficult 10th scorer to outscore than Fleming Mackell ?

The tie for 10th scorer in 1953 will be out of the league by the end of 1954.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Fleming Mackell exited the league after the age of 30 in 1960-61, from '53 to '58 he was 11th in the entire NHL in scoring over that time...

Unless this is somehow not about Mackell...? Who seems to be a lightning rod for criticism here over the last few months for reasons unknown haha

 

[wetcoast]

If peak McDavid plays 75+ games this season and still loses the Art Ross to MacKinnon/Kucherov level players, I am going to have to rethink my position on this.

Why would that be, Howe lost to Dutch Reibel by 4 points in 54-55 playing 6 less games.

This type of narrative or so and so (almost always from a smaller league) would never have lost an Art Ross like Crosby did or McDavid might to knock them down.

It's a weak argument, in terms of it's relevance and also isn't a very consistent one.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Do you know how McDavid compares to Jagr under this approach?

Same table, but with Jagr.

Player Season	Points	#2 Points	#3 Points	Vs2	Vs3
Howe 53	95	61	59	1.56	1.61
McDavid 21	105	69	67	1.52	1.56
McDavid 23	153	111	99	1.38	1.54
Howe 52	86	65	61	1.32	1.41
Howe 51	86	66	62	1.30	1.39
Jagr 99	127	101	96	1.26	1.32
Jagr 96	149	120	115	1.24	1.30
Howe 54	81	67	54	1.21	1.50
McDavid 19	116	100	100	1.16	1.16
Jagr 98	102	90	87	1.13	1.17
McDavid 17	100	89	85	1.12	1.18
McDavid 22	123	115	106	1.07	1.16
Howe 57	89	84	77	1.06	1.16
Howe 63	86	81	76	1.06	1.13
McDavid 18	108	102	97	1.06	1.11
Jagr 00	96	91	86	1.05	1.12
McDavid 20	97	93	87	1.04	1.11
Jagr 01	121	118	95	1.03	1.27
Jagr 95	70	70	62	1.00	1.13
Jagr 06	123	125	103	0.98	1.19

Jagr's numbers feel a bit wonkier. Sakic 01 and Thornton 06 are better Canadian seasons that any of the above McDavid or Howe seasons. Jagr 01 and Jagr 96 are massively influenced by Lemieux.

Knowing the Lemieux factor, the above metric doesn't look outstanding for Jagr. Using the Vs2/Vs3 Canadian non-linemate, I think it's a Howe>McDavid>Jagr type situation.

It'll be interesting to see how this season shakes out. McDavid is currently second highest scoring Canadian.

I'm not saying the Vs2/Vs3 Canadian non-linemate is great, but I do think it's an interesting way to compare across generations. McDavid and Howe both had an Art Ross calibre linemate for much of their prime. Both still walked all over that linemate.

Jagr is a bit different. For half his prime he had a stronger offensive player on his line. For half his prime he was alone. And produced similar domination under both scenarios.

 

[MadLuke]

Fleming Mackell exited the league after the age of 30 in 1960-61, from '53 to '58 he was 11th in the entire NHL in scoring over that time...

Unless this is somehow not about Mackell...? Who seems to be a lightning rod for criticism here over the last few months for reasons unknown haha

The tie for 10 place with 44 pts player that would be out of the league by the end of 1954 was Jim McFadden, not Mackell because like you said he did not quit the nhl in 1954

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

I think for all-time peak, I have Gretzky/Orr/Lemieux as top 3 (probably in that order), and a gap until you reach Howe at #4.

Howe has a fantastic peak, worthy of the big 4, yet still a little behind them. He is part of the big 4 in my opinion not mostly because of his peak (unlike other 3), but because of his incredible consistency in his prime and elite longevity on top of just his peak.

Or another way of saying this is - I personally never felt Howe's peak was as untouchable as the other 3. So - has McDavid surpassed him?

Scoring Finishes:

McDavid 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2
Howe 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3

Each are top 2 in scoring 7x. 6 ross to 5 for Howe, but in a 32 team league vs mostly a 6 team league. Is this already advantage McDavid? I think it is.

Best regular seasons: McDavid 21 & 23 vs Howe 52 & 53. Does McDavid also have the edge here?

Playoffs are a bit light for McDavid - but he does have some memorable individual performances (especially 2022), even though he probably needs to add more.

How do you think peak Howe compares to peak McDavid? Has McDavid matched Howe's peak, or surpassed him?

32 teams vs 6 just means more scrubs, not more elite.

Also, I wouldn't gloss over the playoffs that quickly. You omitted that Howe led the playoffs in scoring 5x, that is significant.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Same table, but with Jagr.

Player Season	Points	#2 Points	#3 Points	Vs2	Vs3
Howe 53	95	61	59	1.56	1.61
McDavid 21	105	69	67	1.52	1.56
McDavid 23	153	111	99	1.38	1.54
Howe 52	86	65	61	1.32	1.41
Howe 51	86	66	62	1.30	1.39
Jagr 99	127	101	96	1.26	1.32
Jagr 96	149	120	115	1.24	1.30
Howe 54	81	67	54	1.21	1.50
McDavid 19	116	100	100	1.16	1.16
Jagr 98	102	90	87	1.13	1.17
McDavid 17	100	89	85	1.12	1.18
McDavid 22	123	115	106	1.07	1.16
Howe 57	89	84	77	1.06	1.16
Howe 63	86	81	76	1.06	1.13
McDavid 18	108	102	97	1.06	1.11
Jagr 00	96	91	86	1.05	1.12
McDavid 20	97	93	87	1.04	1.11
Jagr 01	121	118	95	1.03	1.27
Jagr 95	70	70	62	1.00	1.13
Jagr 06	123	125	103	0.98	1.19

Jagr's numbers feel a bit wonkier. Sakic 01 and Thornton 06 are better Canadian seasons that any of the above McDavid or Howe seasons. Jagr 01 and Jagr 96 are massively influenced by Lemieux.

Knowing the Lemieux factor, the above metric doesn't look outstanding for Jagr. Using the Vs2/Vs3 Canadian non-linemate, I think it's a Howe>McDavid>Jagr type situation.

It'll be interesting to see how this season shakes out. McDavid is currently second highest scoring Canadian.

I'm not saying the Vs2/Vs3 Canadian non-linemate is great, but I do think it's an interesting way to compare across generations. McDavid and Howe both had an Art Ross calibre linemate for much of their prime. Both still walked all over that linemate.

Jagr is a bit different. For half his prime he had a stronger offensive player on his line. For half his prime he was alone. And produced similar domination under both scenarios.

Thanks for putting that together. I'm surprised, I would have guessed that Jagr was closer to McDavid. That might be a result of the variability in 2nd/3rd place, but it's still a decent gap.

 

[bobholly39]

32 teams vs 6 just means more scrubs, not more elite.

Also, I wouldn't gloss over the playoffs that quickly. You omitted that Howe led the playoffs in scoring 5x, that is significant.

No, it very very much does not. That's not the proper way to adjust for era.

As for playoffs - I wasn't trying to gloss over it. Howe is definitely stronger there. But it also depends what people want to consider peak for Howe. Howe actually led playoffs in scoring 6x not 5, but 3 of those times were at ages 32, 34 & 35. Is that still Peak Howe?

 

[Michael Farkas]

The tie for 10 place with 44 pts player that would be out of the league by the end of 1954 was Jim McFadden, not Mackell because like you said he did not quit the nhl in 1954

Oh, I didn't get that from that...I don't get the point. McFadden decided to briefly retire from hockey...or at least quit on the Black Hawks midseason. Later he signed with Calgary and became the best player in the WHL. So I don't have any doubts that he could have continued...if that's the claim...?