Has McDavid's peak surpassed Howe's peak?

Has McDavid surpassed Howe's peak?


  • Total voters
    80

Midnight Judges

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Feb 10, 2010
13,628
10,255
VsX is an okay metric but the problem is it looks at seasons largely in isolation whereas the data from surrounding seasons can provide important context.

We'll see what happens with McDavid's 2023 season but it appears as though that will be the clear cut best season in the surrounding years by a margin that is greater than Howe's peak seasons.
 

daver

Registered User
Apr 4, 2003
25,964
5,833
Visit site
In a comparison between players who are from different eras, decades apart, I think the starting point is to establish where they stood among their respective peers in individual seasons but also among their respective peers within a reasonable timeframe. In terms of per game offensive production relative to the league,, McDavid's peers are Jagr and Crosby.

I consider 22/23 to be McDavid's peak season as it was a full season and his peers also played on a more even playing field than in 20/21. The comparable seasons are Jagr's 98/99 and 99/00 and Crosby's , 10/1112/13 and13/14

McDavid (22/23):

Points (153) vs. avg. Point total of the other Top 10 scorers (110) - 39% better
(PPG (1.87) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.38) - 35% better
GPG (0.78) vs. avg. GPG of the other Top 10 goalscoers (0.61) - 28% better

Jagr (98/99):

Points (127) vs. avg. Point total of the other Top 10 scorers (96) - 32% better
(PPG (1.57) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.24) - 26% better

Jagr (99/00):

(PPG (1.57) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.13) - 39% better

Crosby (10/11)*:

Points (65) vs. avg. Point total of the other Top 10 scorers (45) - 44% better
(PPG (1.67) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.21) - 38% better
GPG (0.82) vs. avg. GPG of the other Top 10 goalscoers (0.55) - 49% better
* up to Game #39

Crosby (12/13)*:

Points (52) vs. avg. Point total of the other Top 10 scorers (36) - 44% better
(PPG (1.63) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.18) - 38% better
* up to Game #32

Crosby (13/14)*:

Points (104) vs. avg. Point total of the other Top 10 scorers (82) - 27% better
(PPG (1.30) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.03) - 26% better


Summary

McDavid wins the Points Domination but Crosby and Jagr better him in PPG domination, and Crosby betters him Goals domination.

Obviously full marks to McDavid for doing it over a full season and winning the Rocket to boot but his is he on another level offensively than Jagr and Crosby were? I don't think so. All three generational level offensively with a balance between goals and assists.


For the O6, the comparable sample size is Top 5. In terms of per game offensive production relative to the league,, Howe's peers are Hull and Beliveau.

Howe (51/52):

Points (86) vs. avg. Point total of the other Top 5 scorers (63) - 37% better
(PPG (1.23) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 5 scorers (.90) - 37% better
GPG (0.67) vs. avg. GPG of the other Top 15 goalscoers (0.43) - 56% better

Howe (52/53):

Points (95) vs. avg. Point total of the other Top 5 scorers (63) - 51% better
(PPG (1.36) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 5 scorers (.89) - 53% better
GPG (0.70) vs. avg. GPG of the other Top 15 goalscoers (0.43) - 63% better


Beliveau (55/56):

Points (88) vs. avg. Point total of the other Top 5 scorers (72) - 22% better
(PPG (1.26) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 5 scorers (1.02) - 23% better
GPG (0.70) vs. avg. GPG of the other Top 15 goalscoers (0.43) - 26% better

Hull (65/66):

Points (97) vs. avg. Point total of the other Top 5 scorers (77) - 26% better
(PPG (1.26) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 5 scorers (1.02) - 33% better
GPG (0.83) vs. avg. GPG of the other Top 15 goalscoers (0.45) - 84% better


Summary

Howe is clearly superior to Hull and Beliveau. It is only Hull's peak season that is comparable to Howe's best 2nd best season while Beliveau's best is comparable to Howe's 3rd/4th best.


Overall Summary

I just don't think you can deny Howe's place as the clear best offensive player pre-67 while McDavid is among Crosby, Jagr (and maybe Espo) in the #4 position for post-67.

I would give a "current era" edge to McDavid if he stood out more among his era peers as Howe did against his.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: TheStatican

daver

Registered User
Apr 4, 2003
25,964
5,833
Visit site
That's not peak, that's his prime. His peak is his best ~4-7 years or so.

I don't think anyone is touching Howe's prime.

To be fair, the OP doesn't qualify what is meant by "peak". You listed eleven seasons for Howe in the OP but presumably you only want to compare Howe's four season peak vs. McDavid's best two - four seasons.
 

Video Nasty

Registered User
Mar 12, 2017
4,742
8,309
This opens the door to "what if" scenarios. Does McDavid win Art Rosses against Howe's Art Ross wins?

McDavid's Ross wins in 16/17, 17/18 and 21/22 are solidly not as dominant as any of Howe's wins from 50/51 to 53/54.

McDavid's 20/21 and 22/23 wins are in the same tier as three of those four wins but I cannot quite put it them there with his 52/53 season (and 20/21 still needs a bit of COVID context).

I see this still and I have to ask: Why?

I would completely understand if he continued to play at the 120-125 pace and/or actual raw totals that he did for 2.5 seasons leading up to 2020-2021 and the following season, and even this season so far, but he went out and proved that he was capable of doing it over a full, normal season.

Context is no longer required there. He’s not a player who had a couple of partial high scoring seasons who never really proved that he could do it during normal circumstances. He went out there and repeated it.

Why does that seem to be valued less than other obvious examples?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Matsun

MadLuke

Registered User
Jan 18, 2011
9,573
5,193
I think it was fine to have some * over McDavid 2021 exploit would he have never repeated it, I think it is fine to remove it once he did.

A bit like Lemieux short burst of credence post 1997, talking as if they meant something, that an healthy-younger Lemieux would have sustained is OK, the rest of his career and redoing it again, give him that benefit of the doubt
 

jigglysquishy

Registered User
Jun 20, 2011
7,618
7,267
Regina, Saskatchewan
McDavid didn't dominate to the same extent in 2023 as he did in 2021.

In 2021 he scored 1.59x as much as 5th scorer. In 2023, he did 1.38x

1.59x 5th scorer in 2023 would have been 176 points.

His 2023 season was all time great. But the level of domination in 2021 was just that much higher.

How dominant is a Vs5 of 1.59? It's the third highest non Gretzky since expansion. Lemieux only beat it once. Esposito only beat it once. It's a 20 point lead on peak Jagr (99) good. It's outscoring Lemieux in 1996 good. It's outscoring Mackinnon last year by 65 points.

If he replicated 1.59 over a full season we wouldn't be arguing Howe peak. We would be arguing Lemieux peak. It was that dominant.

As it is, a Vs5 of 1.38 is behind only Gretzky 91 and Lemieux 96 over full seasons since 1989. It's just that 1.59 is so much better.
 

Draiskull

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
23,344
2,192
Is eliminating non-Canadians in comparisons the norm now?

Are we sure that McDavid scores as much without Draisaitl on his line?

What about adding a star Russian or two to Howe's Wings. Maybe he scores even better.
Is Draisaitl on his line? Pretty sure it's Hyman and Nuge all of this year and he has had atleast 20 other linemates in Edmonton. He produces regardless.

Gretzky and Lemieux had more HoFers helping them produce.
 

Michael Farkas

Celebrate 68
Jun 28, 2006
13,482
8,051
NYC
www.hockeyprospect.com
A fair amount of time, Draisaitl pops into that spot where RNH is on that line.

Which isn't speaking to what the quoted person is saying...McDavid can do anything with anyone.

Just be careful with the Lemieux stuff, a significant chunk of his career was spent on expansion-level franchises with fly-by-night minor leaguers at his sides...90 to 94 and 96-97 Lemieux, sure, 84 to 89 and '01 to '06 is pretty bad on the whole...
 

daver

Registered User
Apr 4, 2003
25,964
5,833
Visit site
Is Draisaitl on his line? Pretty sure it's Hyman and Nuge all of this year and he has had atleast 20 other linemates in Edmonton. He produces regardless.

Gretzky and Lemieux had more HoFers helping them produce.

It was a sarcastic question. I don't see any reason to question his numbers as much as I see no reason to eliminate non-Canadians when comparing him with Howe.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: seventieslord

MadLuke

Registered User
Jan 18, 2011
9,573
5,193
Is Draisaitl on his line? Pretty sure it's Hyman and Nuge all of this year and he has had atleast 20 other linemates in Edmonton. He produces regardless.
One of his most common linemate at 5v5 in some of his biggest year, yes:

Puljujarvi: 552 m
RNH: 391m
Drai: 343m

At even strength, the difference between RNH and Drai goes down to 410 vs 388m that year.


Hyman: 808m
Drai: 550m
RNH: 342m
Kane: 282m
 

daver

Registered User
Apr 4, 2003
25,964
5,833
Visit site
I think it was fine to have some * over McDavid 2021 exploit would he have never repeated it, I think it is fine to remove it once he did.

He played in a seven team league made up of six other teams that finished 13th, 17th, 19th, 20th, 24th, and 30th in 19/20 and 10th, 17th, 19th, 21st, 26th, and 30th in GA/GP.

And it was only 56 games. Are we really supposed to measure that season against the best full seasons of the Big 4 while Crosby's 10/11 season and his 2013 season get significantly minimized in a "Peak season" discussion.

It is fine to have it as a #2 season for him, above his three other Art Ross wins, but to compare that season straight up to Howe's #2 season is not reasonable.
 

MadLuke

Registered User
Jan 18, 2011
9,573
5,193
And it was only 56 games. Are we really supposed to measure that season against the best full seasons of the Big 4 while Crosby's 10/11 season and his 2013 season get significantly minimized in a "Peak season" discussion.
I think if Crosby 11/12 or 12/13 would have been a full one at the 10-11 pace, I would have removed the asterix on it, I am maybe not a strict person about that, the fact he sustained it over 2 partial season even make the * around the 10/11 not a big one for me, his goalscoring and +/- almost certainly would have cooled but not that much his ppg imo.

And it was only 56 games.
Could be an even bigger factor than the weak division, but is PDO and on is SH% was the exact same than the year before overall, he shoot 17.1%, 16% the previous season and now was at 16.5%. Short season will never have the full season value but at least for the scoring above1.8 ppg part, he gained the benefit of the doubt to me that it would have been quite possible in a full league, 82 games season in 2020-2021 would he have had the chance to play.
 

GrumpyKoala

Registered User
Aug 11, 2020
2,904
3,107
32 teams vs 6 just means more scrubs, not more elite.

Also, I wouldn't gloss over the playoffs that quickly. You omitted that Howe led the playoffs in scoring 5x, that is significant.

The scrubbiest area happened in the 90-00 explosion where the league got expanded at a crasy rate of 9 new team in 9 seasons.

Add on top of that the chaotic revolution of modern goaltending with an extremely innevective half baked hybrid butterfly/stand up. And you get the perfect cocktail to inflated records.
 

daver

Registered User
Apr 4, 2003
25,964
5,833
Visit site
I think if Crosby 11/12 or 12/13 would have been a full one at the 10-11 pace, I would have removed the asterix on it, I am maybe not a strict person about that, the fact he sustained it over 2 partial season even make the * around the 10/11 not a big one for me, his goalscoring and +/- almost certainly would have cooled but not that much his ppg imo.

As pointed out in my earlier post, it's not so much that Crosby gets credit for a full season (he shouldn't) but rather his level of play is acknowledged.

While McDavid is clearly establishing a regular season offensive resume thru 9 seasons that is superior to every other player besides the Big 4, that he isn't playing at an offensive level that wasn't reached by Jagr and Crosby is significant for the OP.

I should have combined Jagr's 98/99 and 99/00 seasons to make this point even better:

Jagr (98/99 to 99/00):

Points (223) vs. avg. Point total of the other Top 10 scorers (169) - 32% better
(PPG (1.55) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.11) - 40% better
2nd in goals and GPG

Over more games, Jagr maintained a larger % gap in PPG.


Crosby's first 8 seasons of his Prime (06/07 to 13/14)

(PPG (1.42) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.06) - 34% better

First 4 seasons - 22% better

Second 4 seasons - 46% better

McDavid's first 8 seasons of his Prime (16/17 to 23/24)

(PPG (1.53) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.20) - 27% better

First 4 seasons - 20% better

Second 4 seasons - 35% better
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Felidae

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,297
14,956
As pointed out in my earlier post, it's not so much that Crosby gets credit for a full season (he shouldn't) but rather his level of play is acknowledged.

While McDavid is clearly establishing a regular season offensive resume thru 9 seasons that is superior to every other player besides the Big 4, that he isn't playing at an offensive level that wasn't reached by Jagr and Crosby is significant for the OP.

I should have combined Jagr's 98/99 and 99/00 seasons to make this point even better:

Jagr (98/99 to 99/00):

Points (223) vs. avg. Point total of the other Top 10 scorers (169) - 32% better
(PPG (1.55) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.11) - 40% better
2nd in goals and GPG

Over more games, Jagr maintained a larger % gap in PPG.


Crosby's first 8 seasons of his Prime (06/07 to 13/14)

(PPG (1.42) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.06) - 34% better
First 4 seasons - 22% better

Second 4 seasons - 46% better

McDavid's first 8 seasons of his Prime (16/17 to 23/24)

(PPG (1.53) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.20) - 27% better

First 4 seasons - 20% better

Second 4 seasons - 35% better

The league varies in strength and in performances of top players from year to year. You have to take that into account, somehow.

I find the past ~4-5 years to be extremely competitive in regards to high end performances.

Crosby's best years? Jagrs? Howe's? A bit less so. There as a bit of a lull in the late 90s/early 2000s, and same in the early 2010s. And the early 50s as well, definitely.

Gretzky/Lemieux is a similar effect. Gretzky's best years there's a bit of a lull at the top, so his %'s over competition is insanely high. Lemieux? His best years in late 80s/early 90s, competition is a lot higher, and so his %'s don't stand out as much.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Felidae

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,297
14,956
VsX is an okay metric but the problem is it looks at seasons largely in isolation whereas the data from surrounding seasons can provide important context.

We'll see what happens with McDavid's 2023 season but it appears as though that will be the clear cut best season in the surrounding years by a margin that is greater than Howe's peak seasons.

We'll have to see about that. Kucherov right now is on pace for 140 points and 50+ goals, on a weaker team than Edmonton was last year and in a year where scoring is actually slightly down from last year. We still have half the season to go, but so far he's surprisingly not that far off from McDavid last season.

McDavid didn't dominate to the same extent in 2023 as he did in 2021.

In 2021 he scored 1.59x as much as 5th scorer. In 2023, he did 1.38x

1.59x 5th scorer in 2023 would have been 176 points.

His 2023 season was all time great. But the level of domination in 2021 was just that much higher.

How dominant is a Vs5 of 1.59? It's the third highest non Gretzky since expansion. Lemieux only beat it once. Esposito only beat it once. It's a 20 point lead on peak Jagr (99) good. It's outscoring Lemieux in 1996 good. It's outscoring Mackinnon last year by 65 points.

If he replicated 1.59 over a full season we wouldn't be arguing Howe peak. We would be arguing Lemieux peak. It was that dominant.

As it is, a Vs5 of 1.38 is behind only Gretzky 91 and Lemieux 96 over full seasons since 1989. It's just that 1.59 is so much better.

I don't think there's as big a gap between 2021 and 2023 as you think there is. Not only that, but I think 2023 might actually be better for McDavid, because of how many more goals he scored, leading the league in goals/assists/points.

Top scorers performances fluctuate year to year. But it doesn't always mean it's because the league necessarily changed. McDavid had 1.88 ppg in 2021 and 1.87 ppg in 2023 - are you saying it was harder to score that rate in 2021 than 2023? The COVID effect, and the north division probably were actually benefitial to McDavid, and probably help him a bit, so the opposite is more likely to be true (easier to score at that rate in 2021 vs 2023 for McDavid).

The strength of the top 5 or top 10 scorers are always going to fluctuate year to year. It can't always be looked at as a measuring stick with no additional context of surrounding seasons.

In 21-22, the top 5 goal-scorer averaged 53 goals. in 22-23, they averaged 57 goals. Pretty similar scoring seasons, one season just happened to have better individual performances at the top. It doesn't mean that scoring 60 goals was harder or easier in one season vs another.
 
  • Like
Reactions: daver

daver

Registered User
Apr 4, 2003
25,964
5,833
Visit site
The league varies in strength and in performances of top players from year to year. You have to take that into account, somehow.

I find the past ~4-5 years to be extremely competitive in regards to high end performances.

Crosby's best years? Jagrs? Howe's? A bit less so. There as a bit of a lull in the late 90s/early 2000s, and same in the early 2010s. And the early 50s as well, definitely.

Gretzky/Lemieux is a similar effect. Gretzky's best years there's a bit of a lull at the top, so his %'s over competition is insanely high. Lemieux? His best years in late 80s/early 90s, competition is a lot higher, and so his %'s don't stand out as much.

Higher scoring = more high end performances, and the perception of more competition.

Lower scoring = more parity and the perception of less competition.

McDavid's % gap over his competition was as similar in 16/17 as it was in every other season except 20/21 and 22/23.

Even though he scored only 100 points, his competition was a still prime Crosby, prime/peak Kane, and an emerging Kucherov and Marchand.

In 17/18, the names at the top are arguably weaker with a surprise Giroux and a past prime Malkin added with an emerging MacKinnon.

Since then, Draisaitl is the only consistent Art Ross contender while Matthews is simply a generational goalscorer, not an Art Ross threat.

If you want to throw another consistent superstar player into the early '00s, sure; Malkin and OV weren't there year to year and emerging superstar Stamkos got injured but that would marginally change Crosby's relative domination. That being said, McDavid's main competition (Mac and Kucherov) haven't been putting up full seasons either.

As for Jagr, his peak was against prime Forsberg, prime/peak Lindros (albeit a short prime/peak) and prime/peak Sakic. He likely wins a Rocket or two if not for peak Bure.

We can expand out the numbers to Vx25 and Vx50 if needed but I don't think that changes much in terms of showing how each player's relative domination.

Since you are the one making the claim, perhaps you can do that work.
 

Midnight Judges

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Feb 10, 2010
13,628
10,255
As pointed out in my earlier post, it's not so much that Crosby gets credit for a full season (he shouldn't) but rather his level of play is acknowledged.

While McDavid is clearly establishing a regular season offensive resume thru 9 seasons that is superior to every other player besides the Big 4, that he isn't playing at an offensive level that wasn't reached by Jagr and Crosby is significant for the OP.

I should have combined Jagr's 98/99 and 99/00 seasons to make this point even better:

Jagr (98/99 to 99/00):

Points (223) vs. avg. Point total of the other Top 10 scorers (169) - 32% better
(PPG (1.55) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.11) - 40% better
2nd in goals and GPG

Over more games, Jagr maintained a larger % gap in PPG.


Crosby's first 8 seasons of his Prime (06/07 to 13/14)

(PPG (1.42) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.06) - 34% better

First 4 seasons - 22% better

Second 4 seasons - 46% better

McDavid's first 8 seasons of his Prime (16/17 to 23/24)

(PPG (1.53) vs. avg. PPG of the other Top 10 scorers (1.20) - 27% better

First 4 seasons - 20% better

Second 4 seasons - 35% better

The only purpose of using PPG in past examples is to ignore durability and in this case prop up Crosby above what he actually accomplished.

Here in real life this is what actually happened on the ice:

Crosby 06/07-13/14
Average points of top 10: 613.9
Crosby points: 667 - 8.6% better

McDavid 16/17 to 23/24
Average points of top 10: 635.3
McDavid Points: 861 - 35.5% better

Real goals and real assists that actually happened >>>>>>>> goals and assists you wish had happened (but didn't).
 
Last edited:

jigglysquishy

Registered User
Jun 20, 2011
7,618
7,267
Regina, Saskatchewan
There's some utility to looking at surrounding seasons for impact. I think a three-season stretch (one before/one after) is about as far as I would go. A five-season stretch starts to get into different scoring environments, but is still possible. But once you get to a 7-season or 9-season you're looking at different environments in general. As is, a three-season stretch doesn't work for seasons with huge changes year-to-year. 1968->1969, 2004->2006, 2017->2017, 1996->1997. But let's still look at some data. Since 2021 was a short year (as was 2020) and 2024 isn't done yet, I'll normalize the McDavid years to 82 games.

RankPlayer SeasonGames PlayedPointsVs1
1Howe 5370951
2Howe 5270860.91
3Howe 5470810.85
4Lindsay 5370710.75
5Lindsay 5270690.73
6Richard 5470670.71
7Lach 5270650.68
8Lindsay 5470620.65
9Richard 5370610.64
10Raleigh 5270610.64


1McDavid 2156 (82)105 (154)1
2Draisaitl 2071 (82)110 (127)0.82
3McDavid 22801230.80
4Draisaitl 2156 (82)84 (123)0.80
5Huberdeau 22801150.75
6Gaudreau 22821150.75
7Panarin 2069 (81)95 (112)0.73
8McDavid 2064 (73)97 (111)0.72
9Pastrnak 2270 (82)85 (111)0.72
10Draisaitl 22801100.71

1McDavid 23821531
2Kucherov 2444 (81)75 (138)0.91
3MacKinnon 2446 (82)73 (130)0.85
4Draisaitl 23801280.84
5McDavid 22801230.80
6McDavid 2439 (80)59 (121)0.79
7Pastrnak 2444 (82)64 (119)0.78
8Huberdeau 22801150.75
9Gaudreau 22821150.75
10Panarin 2444 (82)61 (114)0.75

And because someone will ask about Jagr

1Jagr 99811271
2Selanne 99751070.84
3Jagr 98771020.80
4Kariya 99821010.80
5Forsberg 9978970.76
6Sakic 9973960.76
7Jagr 0063960.76
8Yashin 9982940.74
9Bure 0074940.74
10Lindros 9971930.73

For Jagr, 7 of the 10 seasons are from 1999. Was 1999 an easier year to score than 1998 or 2000? PPG suggests no, but actual points are just way higher that year. Still, it's a very dominant stretch.

Both McDavid stretches have limited utility, because of the COVID seasons (20 and 21) and because we're only halfway through 2024. Still, I do think it demonstrates McDavid dominated more in 2021 than in 2023. And it shows that if 2024 holds, Kucherov and MacKinnon are in the midst of historic seasons.

Howe takes the top 3 seasons, and his linemate takes 4,5, and 8. Of that 3 season stretch, Richard 54 comes the closest and he's way back of Howe.

I don't love this method, particularly for the shortened seasons. But we were talking about it so might as well look at it.
 

Cursed Lemon

Registered Bruiser
Nov 10, 2011
11,349
5,840
Dey-Twah, MI
Howe's largest victory margin (minus his 2nd place teammate) was 35% in 1953, 95 points to 61

McDavid's largest victory margin (minus his 2nd place teammate) was 26% in 2023, 153 points to 113
 

The Panther

Registered User
Mar 25, 2014
19,234
15,826
Tokyo, Japan
The league varies in strength and in performances of top players from year to year. You have to take that into account, somehow.
Well, the one thing I would always keep in mind is that one season, alone, is basically meaningless.

On the other hand, as @jigglysquishy points out, if you compare samples of more than five years or so, you're getting into sketchy comparisons because of how the game as a whole---notably scoring environments, etc.---can change.

So, to do statistical comparisons of "peaks" (as per this thread), I think the safest way is to compare periods of about three seasons. Two is optional, four is probably better. But I can live with three.
I find the past ~4-5 years to be extremely competitive in regards to high end performances.
Well, since 2019 (I think), we've seen scoring go noticeably up and we've had Art Ross winners with 128 points, 154 points pace, and 153 points. The same goes for defencemen's scoring peaks.

It's pretty clear that McDavid (and also Kucherov, MacKinnon, Makar) are all-time elite players by peak level. So, there's that. But then we always have to consider how the scoring environment / strength of competition affects this. This is where it gets tricky. Generally (but not always), when scoring peaks go up, it's in part because strength of competition goes down---and indeed, overall scoring has gone up since about 2019. Then, the past few seasons have had some of the lowest NHL parity since the early 1980s, with some truly awful teams. Just last year, we saw Erik Karlsson and Steven Stamkos have their biggest productive seasons ever, and those two were previously thought to have peaked around 2013 to 2015.

The thing is, how do we objectively determine when elite-scoring is more competitive or less competitive? It's not a measureable thing, which means we're all generally bound by our subjective biases.

As an example:
Crosby's best years? Jagrs? Howe's? A bit less so. There as a bit of a lull in the late 90s/early 2000s, and same in the early 2010s. And the early 50s as well, definitely.

Gretzky/Lemieux is a similar effect. Gretzky's best years there's a bit of a lull at the top, so his %'s over competition is insanely high. Lemieux? His best years in late 80s/early 90s, competition is a lot higher, and so his %'s don't stand out as much.
We've seen it often said by the "Howe-wasn't-that-great" crowd that the early-1950s wasn't a strong period for elite talent / scoring. But, I mean... how can you determine that? Basically, unless you were watching a lot of games then, of all the different teams, you can't really say. And even if you were watching all the games, it's still going to be a totally subjective opinion.

Also, how was there a "lull at the top" during Gretzky's best years? Are Dionne, Bossy, Stastny, Nilsson, Kurri, Coffey, Lemieux, Messier, Savard, Hawerchuk, a "lull" in high end talent?

Lemieux's late-80s / early-90s competition (besides Gretzky... who outscored him from mid-1989 to mid-1991) was Yzerman, Lafontaine, Messier (same guy), Oates, Robitaille, Nicholls. Is this demonstrably "harder" high-end talent than Gretzky faced?

So, I dunno. A lot of this is just viewer-subjective bias.

I think, for scoring peaks, about three seasons (or four) is the safest way to compare.
 

daver

Registered User
Apr 4, 2003
25,964
5,833
Visit site
We've seen it often said by the "Howe-wasn't-that-great" crowd that the early-1950s wasn't a strong period for elite talent / scoring. But, I mean... how can you determine that? Basically, unless you were watching a lot of games then, of all the different teams, you can't really say. And even if you were watching all the games, it's still going to be a totally subjective opinion.

Scoring did go down during his peak from 2.73 to 2.40 then up to 2.90 in 58/59 which made for some similar raw point totals throughout the '50s for Howe, Moore, Beliveau. and Bathgate. But a look at % gaps over other Top 5 scorers clearly places Howe above everyone else save for Beliveau's 55/56 which is on the same tier as Howe's three Art Ross wins but 52/53.

Howe also starts losing Art Rosses in 54/55 and is bettered by Beliveau for the 2nd half of the '50s. But 54/55 is an injury year, 55/56 is Beliveau's peak year that he never repeats again. Then Howe betters Beliveau, and everyone else, over the next five years from '60 to '65.

So narrative that Howe wasn't that great in the early-1950s shouldn't hold much weight unless you want to look at whether the effects of the war were still being felt; namely that there was a gap in players entering the league to replace the aging group that started in the late '30s/early 40s.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad