Confirmed with Link: Hags re-signed 4 years @ $2.75m

[Langway]

I certainly wouldn't build the team as though making the playoffs is a foregone conclusion, though. They've got to make the playoffs before they can grind their way through them. Scoring depth is a key part of being a comfortable playoff team. As-is it's hard not to see that coming further down to the pack in goal differential (and it wasn't exactly stellar the past two seasons with strong scoring depth). The issue is less Hagelin in isolation but what it means consequently with the space they have left over. If the cap is only $82M then after Vrana they could only have ~$5.7M to spend on three forwards and a depth D.

Prioritizing Hagelin and getting him done since he was open to it was understandable but it may have real consequences. They may luck out and find someone willing to take a steep discount to win but the options seem limited and I wouldn't assume they'll easily have enough scoring depth against younger and arguably hungrier teams. Maybe MacLellan will have a trick up his sleeve, maybe not. I wouldn't assume he does because there are X factors they can only roughly estimate at the moment. Locking Hagelin in gives them some defensive/PK stability but...he is a winger. A winger doesn't seem likely to heavily compensate for not having an adequate 2RD if no one steps up. They've been a resourceful team so they may sort it out but it would be dangerous IMO to lean on the core group to carry them again. They're going to need balance and stronger underlying play to sustain it, even with more juice next season.

 

[Hivemind]

Also, a lack of depth scoring was one of the primary failings for the team in the playoffs. I don't think anyone on Carolina would say the Capitals were too easy to play against. But they advanced because lines 2-4 contributed next to nothing offensively.

 

[Silky mitts]

Looking back, Ovi scoring 50 and Spicoli gifs were the two highlights of the 2018/19 season.

I've got Wilson v Oleksiak 2, Ovy v Svechnikov 3, Spicoli gifs 4

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Also, a lack of depth scoring was one of the primary failings for the team in the playoffs. I don't think anyone on Carolina would say the Capitals were too easy to play against. But they advanced because lines 2-4 contributed next to nothing offensively.

I don't consider the 2nd line depth or secondary scoring. Their primary f***ing job is to score to win the game.

Truth is, several big vets cost the team just as much as lack of (what I consider to be) “depth” scoring (bottom 6) did, if not more IMO.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Yet he hit 20G three times in his career.
Hagelin never has.

Right. He hit exactly 20, 3 times. ALL after his 31st birthday, oddly enough (and here we are griping about Hagelin at the age of 30).

Chimera’s top goals scored before becoming a Capital? 17
Hagelin’s top goals scored before becoming a Capital? 17

Chimera’s Goals/Game before becoming a Capital? .188
Hagelin’s Goals/Game before becoming a Capital? .172

These guys are so similar. Yet you’ve got one pegged as an offensive juggernaut as compared to the other....all because of his production AFTER joining DC. And let’s not forget those were our firewagon years as well.

I know you won’t see this post, as you liberally enjoy the ignore button. Perhaps it’s because being challenged is upsetting?

Anyway... I know it may be a stretch to see Hagelin age like Chimera did. But it wouldn’t be unheard of — and their careers — when being acquired by the Capitals (at oddly enough almost exactly the same age) have been very similar.

 

[txpd]

Sure, PIT traded him as a pending UFA but contenders don't tend to do that for no good reason. His offensive game fell off for them and so they rolled the dice on Pearson instead.

Do I remember wrong? Pittsburgh was in deep shit trying to find a playoff game. So, they weren't a contender

 

[kicksavedave]

Also, a lack of depth scoring was one of the primary failings for the team in the playoffs. I don't think anyone on Carolina would say the Capitals were too easy to play against. But they advanced because lines 2-4 contributed next to nothing offensively.

Right, but we had plenty of guys who scored 20+ in the RS who went missing in the playoffs, so adding up regular season goal totals and assuming those all apply directly into playoff goal totals is what I'm talking about. Oshie going down hurt depth scoring. And scoring in general was only an issue in games 3-4 in Carolina. Games 5-6-7 they scored 6, 2 and 3 but gave up 5 and 4 in G6-7, so defense was the bigger issue that scoring. Depth scoring is also much more variable. Last year we got key depth goals from Eller, DSP, Chandler, Orlov, etc which helped, but we also got goals poured in bunches by Ovi, Backie, Oshie and Kuzy in that CBus series. Even playoff hero DSP had 2+1 vs Cbus then went scoreless for 7 straight and had just one goal over 11 games, until he exploded vs Vegas. Point still being, we got depth scoring last year by guys who gave us no depth scoring this year... its generally going to be a big variable.

 

[RandyHolt]

Langway nails it. Hagelin probably handcuffs us a little bit. Reality is that he is B6 winger and that is a place teams HAVE to not overpay if they want cap flexibility. It's ironic, we used young players and won a cup. I thought that would be the formula to allow us to have top tier players whose lofty salaries are offset by cheap kids / ELCs.

Inking him for 4 years is very telling about our failure to develop simple 2 way PK/grinderz. What college F coming out is going to want to sign here?

Lucky for us we are an otherwise attractive destination for vet free agents and feel our chance of getting players at a discount is higher than most teams. I still think with the term, him wanting to be here, we could have shaved/saved some money off.

 

[Calicaps]

All the griping about our failure to develop bottom 6 forwards ignores the fact that we were busy building a cup winner, which nevertheless featured 3 regular bottom six forwards plus a smattering of Black Aces and fill-ins drafted by the Caps. They didn't have a lot of room to give too many guys time in bigs because they were trying to win. That said, Trotz was the guy who opposed developing guys at the NHL level. Maybe that will change, but given the results, I'm not convinced it's a failure at all.

 

[RandyHolt]

If the caps development of grinders was not a failure, than the bringing in of Hagelin at the deadline was

Even Stephen.

Maybe Stephenson was injured, or had the old sophomore slump. But he is at the core of the discussion. I can give him a pass I suppose since he helped get a cup. What does Hags get a pass for to warrant 4 years? Riding the Pitt train isnt quite enough for me just yet.

I think its about the Hershey pipe drying up as much as his skill set.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Stephenson is a serviceable NHL player IMO. No problem with a guy like that on the 4th line.

 

[Hivemind]

Right, but we had plenty of guys who scored 20+ in the RS who went missing in the playoffs, so adding up regular season goal totals and assuming those all apply directly into playoff goal totals is what I'm talking about. Oshie going down hurt depth scoring. And scoring in general was only an issue in games 3-4 in Carolina. Games 5-6-7 they scored 6, 2 and 3 but gave up 5 and 4 in G6-7, so defense was the bigger issue that scoring. Depth scoring is also much more variable. Last year we got key depth goals from Eller, DSP, Chandler, Orlov, etc which helped, but we also got goals poured in bunches by Ovi, Backie, Oshie and Kuzy in that CBus series. Even playoff hero DSP had 2+1 vs Cbus then went scoreless for 7 straight and had just one goal over 11 games, until he exploded vs Vegas. Point still being, we got depth scoring last year by guys who gave us no depth scoring this year... its generally going to be a big variable.

Nobody is making that assumption. But going with a bottom six full of plugs is going to make the issue worse, not better. Reducing the offensive talent in the bottom six is going to exacerbate the depth scoring issues. Nobody is expecting every single bottom six player to light the lamp on a regular basis, but you need enough talent down there to help share the load. We're putting more and more eggs in the Lars Eller basket, and for as tremendous as he was in the cup run, he can't be expected to carry the water for the entire bottom six's offensive production. Maybe they get a rebound season from Stephenson, but in that case, Chandler would fill a role largely redundant with Hagelin. Dowd maybe deserves more trust from the coaching staff, but it's hard to imagine him carrying a line on his own.

Scoring only 2 goals in game 6 is an issue. And only 3 goals scored in a 2OT game 7 isn't particularly impressive, either. Their utter lack of faith in the bottom six was also a huge issue in game 7, as they became a three-line and then a two-line team as the OTs progressed. The top six was totally gassed by the end, while Dowd and DSP had played fewer than 9 minutes each.

They can't just fill the bottom of the roster out with PKers and grinders alone and hope that Kuznetsov and Eller remember how to carry lines in the playoffs. Being "hard to play against" isn't enough. There are plenty of teams that are hard to play against. Plenty of the Barry Trotz teams over the years have been hard to play against, both in Washington and Nashville. It was when they got their depth scoring to finally click that the team broke through. They need to make sure they have enough talent in that bottom six for that to happen again. After all, it was a shot by Brett Connolly that set up Eller's cup winning goal after a goal from a 4th liner (DSP) had tied the game.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Nobody is making that assumption. But going with a bottom six full of plugs is going to make the issue worse, not better. Reducing the offensive talent in the bottom six is going to exacerbate the depth scoring issues. Nobody is expecting every single bottom six player to light the lamp on a regular basis, but you need enough talent down there to help share the load. We're putting more and more eggs in the Lars Eller basket, and for as tremendous as he was in the cup run, he can't be expected to carry the water for the entire bottom six's offensive production. Maybe they get a rebound season from Stephenson, but in that case, Chandler would fill a role largely redundant with Hagelin. Dowd maybe deserves more trust from the coaching staff, but it's hard to imagine him carrying a line on his own.

Scoring only 2 goals in game 6 is an issue. And only 3 goals scored in a 2OT game 7 isn't particularly impressive, either. Their utter lack of faith in the bottom six was also a huge issue in game 7, as they became a three-line and then a two-line team as the OTs progressed. The top six was totally gassed by the end, while Dowd and DSP had played fewer than 9 minutes each.

They can't just fill the bottom of the roster out with PKers and grinders alone and hope that Kuznetsov and Eller remember how to carry lines in the playoffs. Being "hard to play against" isn't enough. There are plenty of teams that are hard to play against. Plenty of the Barry Trotz teams over the years have been hard to play against, both in Washington and Nashville. It was when they got their depth scoring to finally click that the team broke through. They need to make sure they have enough talent in that bottom six for that to happen again. After all, it was a shot by Brett Connolly that set up Eller's cup winning goal after a goal from a 4th liner (DSP) had tied the game.

Someone please ask him what the solution is for THIS year? Since I can’t and he’s afraid to converse w me....
-Buy cheap FA’s?
-Spend all you have on one 5m player?
-Not have signed Hags and spent 7m on one winger?
-Trade all their futures for a couple affordable scorers for bottom 6 from other teams? (Although why would they be available?)
-trade current salary, and if so, who?

I love the “the Cup winning GM needs to listen to me and DO THIS”. Without actually spelling out what the DO THIS is??

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Right. He hit exactly 20, 3 times. ALL after his 31st birthday, oddly enough (and here we are griping about Hagelin at the age of 30).

Chimera’s top goals scored before becoming a Capital? 17
Hagelin’s top goals scored before becoming a Capital? 17

Chimera’s Goals/Game before becoming a Capital? .188
Hagelin’s Goals/Game before becoming a Capital? .172

These guys are so similar. Yet you’ve got one pegged as an offensive juggernaut as compared to the other....all because of his production AFTER joining DC. And let’s not forget those were our firewagon years as well.

I know you won’t see this post, as you liberally enjoy the ignore button. Perhaps it’s because being challenged is upsetting?

Anyway... I know it may be a stretch to see Hagelin age like Chimera did. But it wouldn’t be unheard of — and their careers — when being acquired by the Capitals (at oddly enough almost exactly the same age) have been very similar.

If you manage to type up something blatantly factually incorrect you’ll get a response. Lol....

 

[kicksavedave]

Nobody is making that assumption. But going with a bottom six full of plugs is going to make the issue worse, not better. Reducing the offensive talent in the bottom six is going to exacerbate the depth scoring issues. Nobody is expecting every single bottom six player to light the lamp on a regular basis, but you need enough talent down there to help share the load. We're putting more and more eggs in the Lars Eller basket, and for as tremendous as he was in the cup run, he can't be expected to carry the water for the entire bottom six's offensive production. Maybe they get a rebound season from Stephenson, but in that case, Chandler would fill a role largely redundant with Hagelin. Dowd maybe deserves more trust from the coaching staff, but it's hard to imagine him carrying a line on his own.

Scoring only 2 goals in game 6 is an issue. And only 3 goals scored in a 2OT game 7 isn't particularly impressive, either. Their utter lack of faith in the bottom six was also a huge issue in game 7, as they became a three-line and then a two-line team as the OTs progressed. The top six was totally gassed by the end, while Dowd and DSP had played fewer than 9 minutes each.

They can't just fill the bottom of the roster out with PKers and grinders alone and hope that Kuznetsov and Eller remember how to carry lines in the playoffs. Being "hard to play against" isn't enough. There are plenty of teams that are hard to play against. Plenty of the Barry Trotz teams over the years have been hard to play against, both in Washington and Nashville. It was when they got their depth scoring to finally click that the team broke through. They need to make sure they have enough talent in that bottom six for that to happen again. After all, it was a shot by Brett Connolly that set up Eller's cup winning goal after a goal from a 4th liner (DSP) had tied the game.

Again, bottom six guys who helped the Caps win a Cup last year, were MIA this year and as you point out, they ultimately barely got on the ice. That's not necessarily on the roster builder (GM), its on the coach, and possibly also on pure variance, but I think its false to call Hags a plug just because he hasn't scored 20 yet. DSP hasn't either. Conno never did until this year. Bura, nope. So its not like our Cup winning bottom six was stacked with guys with a track record of scoring in the playoffs, until all of a sudden they all put it together and did. Our bottom six was full of "plugs" until they all went off in May/June 2018 and won a Cup together.

Bottom line for me, I'll take Hags and 12-15 goals and his incredible penalty killing, for $2,75, vs Conno's 22 goals and absolutely nothing else for $4M.

And clearly, so would Stanley Cup winning GM BMac.

 

[Langway]

Bottom line for me, I'll take Hags and 12-15 goals and his incredible penalty killing, for $2,75, vs Conno's 22 goals and absolutely nothing else for $4M.

And clearly, so would Stanley Cup winning GM BMac.

I don't think we can infer that given that it's likely Connolly just wants to test the market regardless and find himself a bigger role elsewhere. It's more Burakovsky at a comparable rate that can safely be assumed to not have been preferred. If Hagelin could indeed pump out 12-15 that would replace Burakovsky's lesser production. Even if Connolly is somewhat one-dimensional I mean goal-scoring is kind of an important dimension.

 

[kicksavedave]

I don't think we can infer that given that it's likely Connolly just wants to test the market regardless and find himself a bigger role elsewhere. It's more Burakovsky at a comparable rate that can safely be assumed to not have been preferred. If Hagelin could indeed pump out 12-15 that would replace Burakovsky's lesser production. Even if Connolly is somewhat one-dimensional I mean goal-scoring is kind of an important dimension.

Sure but you're talking about a likely difference of 8-10 goals in a season. And sure, seems clear that Hags at 2.75 over Bura at anything close to 2.75 or higher, that choice has already been made.

 

[Ridley Simon]

If you manage to type up something blatantly factually incorrect you’ll get a response. Lol....

Ha!

Every message board needs it resident “internet fact checker”. Keep us all in line

 

[Ridley Simon]

I don't think we can infer that given that it's likely Connolly just wants to test the market regardless and find himself a bigger role elsewhere. It's more Burakovsky at a comparable rate that can safely be assumed to not have been preferred. If Hagelin could indeed pump out 12-15 that would replace Burakovsky's lesser production. Even if Connolly is somewhat one-dimensional I mean goal-scoring is kind of an important dimension.

Are we sure that Conno is so enthralled w testing the market? Was there some quotes or articles that I missed? Serious question?

Last article I saw on this was around when he scored his 20th (or was close) this past season. I think it was in the WaPo. He commented on how he felt at home in DC and didn’t want to move on again, and it sounded like — to me — a hometown discount discussion. BUT, it could easily have just been Athlete Speak (I call it, “The Cousins”, after our favourite son Kurt).....so we will see.

It wouldn’t at all shock me to see a 4yr/13-15m a year contract (or 5yr/17m) announced in the coming days

 

[Langway]

Sure but you're talking about a likely difference of 8-10 goals in a season. And sure, seems clear that Hags at 2.75 over Bura at anything close to 2.75 or higher, that choice has already been made.

But then there's Burakovsky to replace also. We'll see. It's mostly having to rely on Stephenson/Boyd and what else that's in the system to help compensate that seems so suspect. Maybe in UFA they can find some value but at best it seems more like treading water. Is that enough?

Hagelin did help drive play in the regular season but overall they're going to need to get back to being a better, more dominant territorial team 5-on-5. That would put them in a much better position to withstand any step back in depth scoring by being more routinely in position to create chances and having a better chance differential. That will begin with sturdier, more assertive team defense...but the question marks are there with likely not that much cap space to go around and no obvious cap dumps.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...roaches/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.5b7016ded2dd

“I was able to produce here, for sure, but it was in a limited role,” Connolly said. “So, part of me wants to challenge myself again and take that next step in my development. I feel I’m in the prime of my career. My body feels great. There’s going to be opportunity out there; I know that. It’s just a matter of making a decision for me and for my family, something that fits. If it’s here, that’s great. Obviously, that would be ideal, but there’s also opportunities elsewhere. There are lots of good teams and a lot of good teams looking for guys to chip in offensively to help win.”...

“It’s a situation that three years ago, when I signed here, when I didn’t get qualified by Boston, that I never thought would come," Connolly said. "You know you’re confident in yourself, but there’s always some doubt. I had to prove myself again, and now I’m here after a great year, and I’m going to the market, maybe. It’s crazy how things change in this league, and if you stick with it and keep working, it works out.”

Sounds to me like a guy at least curious about what the market may bear and whether more prominent top 6/PP time can be had (in addition to solid money).

 

[kicksavedave]

But then there's Burakovsky to replace also. We'll see.

I always felt like between Bura, Conno and Hags, 2 out of 3 was going to be tough to pull off but if one of them takes a discount then it could happen. Its still the case. If Bura takes a cheap "show me" deal, he could stick around. If Conno takes a modest deal with term to lower AAV, he could stick around. I still feel like we can keep one of those two left, but neither of them are so indispensable as to make their loss something we can't recover from, or would leave us in danger of missing the playoffs or anything dramatic like that.

With the exception of maybe the final month when Bura kinda figured something out, neither of them drove play or possession much at all. They both showed a decent finish but little else, again Bura showing more in March/April than he had all season but at times earlier Bura could be 100% counted on to end any possession where the puck touched his stick.

 

[um]

Burakovsky is one of the few players we can get on a one year deal if he goes to arbitration (I think), not many UFAs can give us that.

 

[discobob]

Hagelin - cheapest of the three, helps the most defensively, dramatically helps PK

Connolly - will cost the most, and hardly a defensive stalwart

Burakovsky - huge wildcard, but if we don't sign him we can get something in return, unlike the others

Makes sense that they pulled the trigger on Hagelin 1st. Conno is gone, anyone saying otherwise is wishful thinking. Not sure what to do with Bura... trade him I'd you get a solid offer, or 1yr @3.25 if no good offers. He's got too much potential to let him walk for nothing...

 

[Hivemind]

Again, bottom six guys who helped the Caps win a Cup last year, were MIA this year and as you point out, they ultimately barely got on the ice. That's not necessarily on the roster builder (GM), its on the coach, and possibly also on pure variance, but I think its false to call Hags a plug just because he hasn't scored 20 yet. DSP hasn't either. Conno never did until this year. Bura, nope. So its not like our Cup winning bottom six was stacked with guys with a track record of scoring in the playoffs, until all of a sudden they all put it together and did. Our bottom six was full of "plugs" until they all went off in May/June 2018 and won a Cup together.

Bottom line for me, I'll take Hags and 12-15 goals and his incredible penalty killing, for $2,75, vs Conno's 22 goals and absolutely nothing else for $4M.

And clearly, so would Stanley Cup winning GM BMac.

It's not just calling Hags a plug because he hasn't scored 20. It's a general statement about the loss of offensive talent in the bottom six. It's about losing Connolly and Burakovsky simultaneously in order to pay for a premium PK player. You can call the fact they barely got on the ice a pure coaching thing, but if you're going to compare 4th lines between 2018 (Stephenson/Beagle/DSP/Chiasson) and 2019 (Stephenson/Dowd/Boyd/DSP), who do you trust more in a high leverage situation? The decline of Stephenson and DSP is a large part of that, but so was having to dip down to replacement-level players like Boyd. Dowd exceeded expectations, but was never going to be the high trust player that Beagle was. We're now seeing that same talent drain creep from the 4th line to the 3rd line, which will further impact team-wide scoring depth.

I also think you're underselling Connolly if you think he provides "absolutely nothing else." He's an offensive catalyst in the bottom six, producing significant offense without the coaching staff having to invest powerplay or top 6 ice time in him to achieve those results (and has continued to see fewer and fewer offensive zone starts each season, while still improving on his offensive contributions). Lars Eller was better when he was on the ice with Connolly than when he wasn't. Carl Hagelin was better when he was on the ice with Connolly than when he wasn't. The team as a whole was better when Connolly was on the ice than when he wasn't. He had 33 even-strength primary points last season, which trailed only Ovechkin (44) and Vrana (34) on the entire team. Nor is Connolly a defensive liability or a poor forechecker. His play away from the puck ranges from neutral-to-good. He's a guy who helps keep the puck on the right half of the ice sheet, and produces a lot of offense in limited ice time.

 

[WanderingCapsFan]

If the caps development of grinders was not a failure, than the bringing in of Hagelin at the deadline was

Even Stephen.

Maybe Stephenson was injured, or had the old sophomore slump. But he is at the core of the discussion. I can give him a pass I suppose since he helped get a cup. What does Hags get a pass for to warrant 4 years? Riding the Pitt train isnt quite enough for me just yet.

I think its about the Hershey pipe drying up as much as his skill set.

Stephenson is a serviceable NHL player IMO. No problem with a guy like that on the 4th line.

On an optimistic note, maybe Hags can mentor Stephenson into becoming Hags 2.0. They both have wheels and hockey sense. Stephenson's biggest weakness (as I see it) is that he is overly passive and doesn't make use of his strengths. Maybe this helps.

Of course, this process shouldn't take 4 years..............