I’m not so sure about that.
I would think McDavid scoring 105 points in 56 games and 153 points in 82 games might have made most reconsider what is possible in today’s game.
Before he put up 153 in particular, 99% of this forum didn’t think 150 was possible. Before it happened, some of the most optimistic thought 150-160 was the peak of what Gretzky or Lemieux could do now. Is it really much of a reach to think that they could put up another half a point per game?
There are aspects of this game now where it seems pretty clear that both players would tear the game apart. I hesitate to say Lemieux would score 200 since 199 was the most he actually put up, but there’s no question in my mind that Gretzky would score 200 and perhaps do it more than once.
Last years Goals per game was 3.18 and the top 2-20 in points per game were averaging 105 per 82. In 1984 which was Gretzky’s best per game season it was 3.94 goals per game and 115 per 82 for the top 2-20. If we just take Gretzky’s actual 74 games and convert it into the 2022-23 environment we are looking at 183 for G/GP and 207 for 2-20 in league ppg for his new 82 game paces.
We also have to remember that he was nursing a shoulder injury that really impacted him the last 17 games. Dropping him to “only” 2 points per game the last 17. He averaged 3 points per game through the first 57 games of the season (171 PTS). If we convert that we are looking at 199 for G/GP and 225 for 2-20 in league ppg.
You’d think without injury Gretzky finishes that year closer to 3 points per game than his actual 2.77 but in any event the averages of both methods of adjustment combined are:
195 in 82 games for his 205 in 74
212 in 82 games for his 171 in 57
Combined average: 204 in 82
The average of those is 204 in 82 games which would make sense as Gretzky would have been around 2.9 for the full year (the average of both 74 game and 57 game samples). According to just these adjusted numbers (which I don’t think mean anything in general) Gretzky was a 200 point guy in todays league at his peak playing all 82. Running the same numbers for Lemieux shows 192 in 82 was possible today at his peak for his best year and best stretch averaged out with those methods.
There are better ways and less complicated ways to look at it though. Just the way you described how you believe he’d get there suffices in my mind but for others I think the number crunching may give reason to believe he would do it.