Gretzky vs Ovi/Crosby

[McVespa99]

Maybe they didn't match him individually. But Crosby/Malkin are arguably the best 1-2 punch of all time.

No they are not. Not even arguably. Gretzky/Messier are on a different planet. Or Gretzky/Coffee. Or Gretzky/Kurri. Thats 3 superior combos just from 1 team

 

[Video Nasty]

sure that's great but people who were around at the time also understand the perfect storm of gretzky being the best player of all time, his intense commitment to being the best all of the time and the perfect system in which to execute those scoring totals.

Put another way there is zero chance gretzky could score 200 points today and heck even 170 to 180 would be probably impossible.

I say this as someone who has Gretzky as the best player of all time not some young kid.

I’m not so sure about that.

I would think McDavid scoring 105 points in 56 games and 153 points in 82 games might have made most reconsider what is possible in today’s game.

Before he put up 153 in particular, 99% of this forum didn’t think 150 was possible. Before it happened, some of the most optimistic thought 150-160 was the peak of what Gretzky or Lemieux could do now. Is it really much of a reach to think that they could put up another half a point per game?

There are aspects of this game now where it seems pretty clear that both players would tear the game apart. I hesitate to say Lemieux would score 200 since 199 was the most he actually put up, but there’s no question in my mind that Gretzky would score 200 and perhaps do it more than once.

 

[nowhereman]

How many teams now? Watered down product. Lots of guys now would be in the A years ago. Plus the game was mean and full of hooking and holding. Now it’s a watered down product with no interference. Gretzky might get 250. Lemeuix too. Orr would dominate.

Lemieux played most of his career in a 30 team league and Orr barely had to play any non-Canadians, as 97% of the league was Canadian in his prime. Now, the game may not be as tough as it was 30 years ago (just ask Ryan Reaves) but the players are faster, better conditioned, better coached and simply better from the top of the line-up to the bottom.

Would Gretzky have been able to score like he did in the 80s with much less time and space or goaltenders who could play the butterfly? The big lumbering defensemen of yesteryear might have knocked out your teeth back in the day but many couldn't even crack an NHL line-up today with the emphasis on speed and smarts over water-skying talent.

There is absolutely no way Gretzky breaks 180, let alone 250 points.

 

[WalterLundy]

I’m not so sure about that.

I would think McDavid scoring 105 points in 56 games and 153 points in 82 games might have made most reconsider what is possible in today’s game.

Before he put up 153 in particular, 99% of this forum didn’t think 150 was possible. Before it happened, some of the most optimistic thought 150-160 was the peak of what Gretzky or Lemieux could do now. Is it really much of a reach to think that they could put up another half a point per game?

There are aspects of this game now where it seems pretty clear that both players would tear the game apart. I hesitate to say Lemieux would score 200 since 199 was the most he actually put up, but there’s no question in my mind that Gretzky would score 200 and perhaps do it more than once.

Last years Goals per game was 3.18 and the top 2-20 in points per game were averaging 105 per 82. In 1984 which was Gretzky’s best per game season it was 3.94 goals per game and 115 per 82 for the top 2-20. If we just take Gretzky’s actual 74 games and convert it into the 2022-23 environment we are looking at 183 for G/GP and 207 for 2-20 in league ppg for his new 82 game paces.

We also have to remember that he was nursing a shoulder injury that really impacted him the last 17 games. Dropping him to “only” 2 points per game the last 17. He averaged 3 points per game through the first 57 games of the season (171 PTS). If we convert that we are looking at 199 for G/GP and 225 for 2-20 in league ppg.

You’d think without injury Gretzky finishes that year closer to 3 points per game than his actual 2.77 but in any event the averages of both methods of adjustment combined are:

195 in 82 games for his 205 in 74
212 in 82 games for his 171 in 57
Combined average: 204 in 82

The average of those is 204 in 82 games which would make sense as Gretzky would have been around 2.9 for the full year (the average of both 74 game and 57 game samples). According to just these adjusted numbers (which I don’t think mean anything in general) Gretzky was a 200 point guy in todays league at his peak playing all 82. Running the same numbers for Lemieux shows 192 in 82 was possible today at his peak for his best year and best stretch averaged out with those methods.

There are better ways and less complicated ways to look at it though. Just the way you described how you believe he’d get there suffices in my mind but for others I think the number crunching may give reason to believe he would do it.

 

[BraveCanadian]

There is absolutely no way Gretzky breaks 180, let alone 250 points.

Interesting how for many here 130+ was impossible in todays league of super humans, and now that McJesus threw all that out, the goalposts have moved again.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Crosby and Ovechkin easily. Two players can win you a cup of their caliber but one player hardly ever can.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Interesting how for many here 130+ was impossible in todays league of super humans, and now that McJesus threw all that out, the goalposts have moved again.

You can't defeat an argument unless you can accurately state it.

You don't seem to realize that.

 

[authentic]

Last years Goals per game was 3.18 and the top 2-20 in points per game were averaging 105 per 82. In 1984 which was Gretzky’s best per game season it was 3.94 goals per game and 115 per 82 for the top 2-20. If we just take Gretzky’s actual 74 games and convert it into the 2022-23 environment we are looking at 183 for G/GP and 207 for 2-20 in league ppg for his new 82 game paces.

We also have to remember that he was nursing a shoulder injury that really impacted him the last 17 games. Dropping him to “only” 2 points per game the last 17. He averaged 3 points per game through the first 57 games of the season (171 PTS). If we convert that we are looking at 199 for G/GP and 225 for 2-20 in league ppg.

You’d think without injury Gretzky finishes that year closer to 3 points per game than his actual 2.77 but in any event the averages of both methods of adjustment combined are:

195 in 82 games for his 205 in 74
212 in 82 games for his 171 in 57
Combined average: 204 in 82

The average of those is 204 in 82 games which would make sense as Gretzky would have been around 2.9 for the full year (the average of both 74 game and 57 game samples). According to just these adjusted numbers (which I don’t think mean anything in general) Gretzky was a 200 point guy in todays league at his peak playing all 82. Running the same numbers for Lemieux shows 192 in 82 was possible today at his peak for his best year and best stretch averaged out with those methods.

There are better ways and less complicated ways to look at it though. Just the way you described how you believe he’d get there suffices in my mind but for others I think the number crunching may give reason to believe he would do it.

This is a good way to run the adjustments as opposed to the regular adjusted stats, but in Gretzky and Lemieux’s cases specifically it does exclude one important point and that is ice time/distribution. Neither one plays the 25-27 minutes a game today that they averaged back then and Lemieux probably isn’t surpassing 6 or 7 minutes in powerplay time. Give them the regular 22-23 minutes and you could probably expect a 15-20 or so point decrease. Now you could say they might play the same today since they are just that much better than everyone but at the same time it would be very tough to handle those minutes in a faster paced league with more defensive responsibility which would also cut into their numbers. So once again, even after doing the proper adjustments if you look at all the factors realistically it might just take you back to where the more flawed adjusted stats have them around 170-80. Who knows though, it’s interesting to consider the possibilities and you’re the first to post a real case for the possibility of 200 today.

 

[WalterLundy]

This is a good way to run the adjustments as opposed to the regular adjusted stats, but in Gretzky and Lemieux’s cases specifically it does exclude one important point and that is ice time/distribution. Neither one plays the 25-27 minutes a game today that they averaged back then and Lemieux probably isn’t surpassing 6 or 7 minutes in powerplay time. Give them the regular 22-23 minutes and you could probably expect a 15-20 or so point decrease. Now you could say they might play the same today since they are just that much better than everyone but at the same time it would be very tough to handle those minutes in a faster paced league with more defensive responsibility which would also cut into their numbers. So once again, even after doing the proper adjustments if you look at all the factors realistically it might just take you back to where the more flawed adjusted stats have them around 170-80. Who knows though, it’s interesting to consider the possibilities and you’re the first to post a real case for the possibility of 200 today.

I appreciate that. I tried to give as quality of an approach as I could by using league scoring and elite player scoring and using the full season stats/best stretches of at least 70% of scheduled games combined. When you do all of that you are accounting for quite a bit and the 204 for Gretzky and 192 for Lemieux show that by the numbers 200 would be there as a legit possibility at their absolute peaks today.

However you are right that the ice time and defensive responsibilities would indeed cut into it a bit. Powerplay time for Mario would be crucial in his specific case. I think 170-180 would be correct if that’s the case as well. I do believe if they were able to play their usual minutes and get a coaching pass on defense it would look like the numbers I posted. Whether it would happen or not can never truly be answered but I do think it is neat that there is a statistical case that lets us know it is legitimately possible even if perhaps unlikely. But only by these two. Nobody else comes close.