Speculation: Gotta re-sign captain Dave? Don't you?

[Bubblhead00]

2 x 6 12mil
3 x 5.75 17.25mil
4 x 5.5 22mil
5 x 5.25 26.25mil

That should be good starting points. Give him full NMC. I think he takes any of those.

Would love to see him back!!!

 

[TruBlu]

2 x 6 12mil
3 x 5.75 17.25mil
4 x 5.5 22mil
5 x 5.25 26.25mil

That should be good starting points. Give him full NMC. I think he takes any of those.

Would love to see him back!!!

I think that Backes is looking more at the length of the contract than the amount of money. He knows that he is on the downhill part of his career and I think he is probably looking for 5 or 6 year term. They will not give him that, but I think they will probably offer a 4 year term at around 6 million. I believe he will take that. He wants to finish out his time as a Blue. His family is settled and that means a lot when you have so many ties to the community. His numbers have fallen slightly over time, but he has been a consistent player the whole time he has been here and his defensive ability is something that you can't measure with numbers. I'm really hoping that he is resigned.

 

[Note Worthy]

Listening to JR on 101 this morning, I get the impression we will bring Backes back and not Brouwer.

 

[The Note in MI]

Listening to JR on 101 this morning, I get the impression we will bring Backes back and not Brouwer.

I'd say that is pretty obvious.

Let the captain and 10 year member of the organization walk, to sign a similar player who has been here one year? I suspect only way the opposite happens is if blues can't reach a deal with backes.

 

[Note Worthy]

I'd say that is pretty obvious.

Let the captain and 10 year member of the organization walk, to sign a similar player who has been here one year? I suspect only way the opposite happens is if blues can't reach a deal with backes.

Well yeah that's what I meant. Of course the Blues prefer to bring Backes back. My point was it sounds like they will be able to or at least do everything they can to make it work.

 

[TruBlu]

Well yeah that's what I meant. Of course the Blues prefer to bring Backes back. My point was it sounds like they will be able to or at least do everything they can to make it work.

We technically have the ability to bring both Backes and Brouwer back this year. The cap is not an issue this year, but it will be next year if we don't make some cap clearing moves this off season. I think letting Brouwer go is the right decision. I loved his post season play, but he was not nearly as good season long. I will give him credit for being a tough, dependable guy though. My major problem with him were all of the penalties he took. As much as he helped us, he turned around and put us down 5v4 too many times to count. Shatty being moved and Brouwer not being resigned will clear cap room and allow us to resign Backes, Schwartz, and whoever we acquire from Shatty's trade. We will be in good shape after that.

 

[Robb_K]

We technically have the ability to bring both Backes and Brouwer back this year. The cap is not an issue this year, but it will be next year if we don't make some cap clearing moves this off season. I think letting Brouwer go is the right decision. I loved his post season play, but he was not nearly as good season long. I will give him credit for being a tough, dependable guy though. My major problem with him were all of the penalties he took. As much as he helped us, he turned around and put us down 5v4 too many times to count. Shatty being moved and Brouwer not being resigned will clear cap room and allow us to resign Backes, Schwartz, and whoever we acquire from Shatty's trade. We will be in good shape after that.

And don't forget Ott's $2.6 million coming off the books. He can balance Sobotka's $2.7 million coming in.

 

[Celtic Note]

We technically have the ability to bring both Backes and Brouwer back this year. The cap is not an issue this year, but it will be next year if we don't make some cap clearing moves this off season. I think letting Brouwer go is the right decision. I loved his post season play, but he was not nearly as good season long. I will give him credit for being a tough, dependable guy though. My major problem with him were all of the penalties he took. As much as he helped us, he turned around and put us down 5v4 too many times to count. Shatty being moved and Brouwer not being resigned will clear cap room and allow us to resign Backes, Schwartz, and whoever we acquire from Shatty's trade. We will be in good shape after that.

If we end up with a similar deal for Shatty as rumored/speculated at the deadline (Ericksson), then we won't have gained any cap space. Just something to consider.

We can't drop Shatty, Brouwer and Backes and leave their spots void. Even if we fill them with low cost salaries, then this team will be incredibly less skilled and deep.

 

[carter333167]

I wouldn't want him at anywhere near the 5 x 6 mill that is being rumored. He's on the precipice of a significant decline IMO (his contract year was probably the last hoorah--laid it all on the line for his new baby).

I would consider Brouwer if the terms were reasonable--3ish years x 4ish million.

Hope Backes gets paid a mint---just somewhere else.

By the way, the money offered in a 5 or 6 year deal on Backes gets you well over half the way there on a competitive Stamkos bid. I am amazed that so many pull the trigger so quickly on Backes and yet write off Stammer as if it's not even a remote possibility. Of course, its a possibility...we just need to make the offer.

 

[TruBlu]

I wouldn't want him at anywhere near the 5 x 6 mill that is being rumored. He's on the precipice of a significant decline IMO (his contract year was probably the last hoorah--laid it all on the line for his new baby).

I would consider Brouwer if the terms were reasonable--3ish years x 4ish million.

Hope Backes gets paid a mint---just somewhere else.

By the way, the money offered in a 5 or 6 year deal on Backes gets you well over half the way there on a competitive Stamkos bid. I am amazed that so many pull the trigger so quickly on Backes and yet write off Stammer as if it's not even a remote possibility. Of course, its a possibility...we just need to make the offer.

Stamkos isn't happening, nor should we do it. That is a last chance desperation move that would most certainly put us into rebuild mode after this coming season. We have a few years window right now where we will be cup competitive as long as we do not do anything silly cap-wise. You are also looking at what Backes salary would be at 6m and not his currrent salary. There are cheaper options at center that wouldn't destroy our cap. I agree that Stamkos would make our top line outstanding, but the reduction in talent to the other three lines would diminish greatly. We beat a lot more "talented" teams on the way to the WCF because of our depth. Acquiring Stamkos destroys that depth.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

I wouldn't want him at anywhere near the 5 x 6 mill that is being rumored. He's on the precipice of a significant decline IMO (his contract year was probably the last hoorah--laid it all on the line for his new baby).

I would consider Brouwer if the terms were reasonable--3ish years x 4ish million.

Hope Backes gets paid a mint---just somewhere else.

By the way, the money offered in a 5 or 6 year deal on Backes gets you well over half the way there on a competitive Stamkos bid. I am amazed that so many pull the trigger so quickly on Backes and yet write off Stammer as if it's not even a remote possibility. Of course, its a possibility...we just need to make the offer.

I would much rather have Backes at 6 million than Brouwer at 4.

 

[Alklha]

I wouldn't want him at anywhere near the 5 x 6 mill that is being rumored. He's on the precipice of a significant decline IMO (his contract year was probably the last hoorah--laid it all on the line for his new baby).

I would consider Brouwer if the terms were reasonable--3ish years x 4ish million.

Hope Backes gets paid a mint---just somewhere else.

By the way, the money offered in a 5 or 6 year deal on Backes gets you well over half the way there on a competitive Stamkos bid. I am amazed that so many pull the trigger so quickly on Backes and yet write off Stammer as if it's not even a remote possibility. Of course, its a possibility...we just need to make the offer.

Backes at $6m for 5 years is better than Brouwer at ~$4.3 for 3.

Equally, Backes on the above contract is better than Stamkos at $10m for 7 years if his contract can't be insured. We can't afford $10m a year for a player who is not playing, we'd be in the Columbus situation with Havig to take Clarkson... Except much, much worse.

 

[jmwc95]

Backes won't even be a 40 point player after the first two years. I think we should bring Brouwer back because we can probably get him for a shorter term, lower AAV, and he's a year younger. He was also on a more important line. Backes is gonna get overpaid, and we should avoid a Dustin Brown/Ryan Kesler type contract. Replace his production by trading Shattenkirk or signing a cheaper UFA..

 

[carter333167]

^^
1. I genuinely think Backes will fall off the proverbial cliff in production in the next two years.
2. I also think it is time for new leadership at Captain. Petro, Tarsenko, etc.....someone in the new core should be wearing the C and accepting leadership for this team.

Notwithstanding, these are just my opinions....I could be wrong.

 

[Robb_K]

^^
1. I genuinely think Backes will fall off the proverbial cliff in production in the next two years.
2. I also think it is time for new leadership at Captain. Petro, Tarsenko, etc.....someone in the new core should be wearing the C and accepting leadership for this team.

Notwithstanding, these are just my opinions....I could be wrong.

Tarasenko is NOT a good candidate for Blues' captain, until after he will have matured in a few more years. Pietrangelo might be okay. Maybe Parayko will get there, eventually. He surely has the work ethic.

 

[Robb_K]

I'd sign Backes for 4 years for $5.5 million. Didn't he turn down only 3 years at $5.5? Maybe if he gets a signed agreement to be hired by The Blues in an administration job for X years after retirement, along with the proposed salary for the 4 years, he might accept it.

 

[Alklha]

Backes won't even be a 40 point player after the first two years. I think we should bring Brouwer back because we can probably get him for a shorter term, lower AAV, and he's a year younger. He was also on a more important line. Backes is gonna get overpaid, and we should avoid a Dustin Brown/Ryan Kesler type contract. Replace his production by trading Shattenkirk or signing a cheaper UFA..

Backes doesn't rely on speed, his game isn't about going around trucking the opposition and his production has been hampered by usage. He has had no injuries that have forced him to miss significant time and he has missed a total of 29 games in a 10 year career.

Nobody is suggesting giving him a Brown/Kesler contract, and Dustin Brown should never even be mentioned in any sort of comparison to Backes. 5 years at $30m is fine compared to 6 at $42m for Kesler.

The realistic worst case scenario of giving Backes a 5 year deal at $6m is that he is overpaid by maybe $2.5m in each of the last 2 seasons. Hardly crippling. Given how he gets his points, and if he is a permanent RW going forward, it's entirely possible that he's still a $6m player at 36. I don't want to give him the 5th year, but it's the price you have to pay.

Backes on a 5 year, $30m contract or Browuer on a 4 year, $18m contract?

I'd sign Backes for 4 years for $5.5 million. Didn't he turn down only 3 years at $5.5? Maybe if he gets a signed agreement to be hired by The Blues in an administration job for X years after retirement, along with the proposed salary for the 4 years, he might accept it.

We can't have any formal agreement like that, it would be cap circumvention. I don't think he'll need anything in writing for that type of agreement anyway.

 

[Sniper]

My prediction: Backes signs 6 yr deal with 6.3mil cap hit
Yearly Breakdown: 1/8mil 2/8mil 3/8mil 4/6mil 5/4mil 6/4mil

 

[Ranksu]

Give him 4 year deal, 7.500mill.$ 1st, 6.500mill.$ 2nd, 5.500mill.$ 3rd and 4.500mill.$ 4th year. So he'll get 6.00mill.$ AAV.

 

[jmwc95]

Do you think a player needs to score > 40 points to justify a $6M/yr salary? Do you know how many of those there are older than 32? It's not many (like 15-20), and most have a much higher pedigree than Backes (i.e. Thornton, Datsyuk, Sedin, Iginla, Jagr, etc). Most players are not good after 32, especially forwards. Backes will not be an exception. I would give him four years max, and 2 of those years will probably be less than 40 points.

 

[intangible]

Do you think a player needs to score > 40 points to justify a $6M/yr salary?

Yes.

 

[jmwc95]

Yes.

There is one player over 32 in the top 10 in scoring, 2 in the top 30, 3 in the top 60, 6 in the top 80 (52 points), and 16 in the top 150 (41pts). He is going to drop off in production very soon.

 

[Alklha]

There is one player over 32 in the top 10 in scoring, 2 in the top 30, 3 in the top 60, 6 in the top 80 (52 points), and 16 in the top 150 (41pts). He is going to drop off in production very soon.

That isn't an appropriate analysis of the it. What players are directly comparable to Backes and how did they fair?

Shane Doan is probably the best comparable; similar style of game, similar durability and high end 2-way play. He averaged 60 points per 82 games between the ages of 32-36. Even factoring in Doan's higher overall production, Backes would be fine if he he was putting up 50 points and capable of carrying a defensive load when needed.

Players fall out of the League for many reasons, but the main 2 are injuries and loss of speed. Backes has had a remarkably healthy career and he has no reliance on speed. Betting that his game will hold up reasonably well for 5 years isn't a terrible bet.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Players are usually underpaid for the beginning of the careers, and usually overpaid for the end. That's how it works, and it's why drafting is now so important. The constant influx of youth is needed to balance the scales against the more expensive vets.

You're going to have a very hard time building a good team if you aren't willing to pay UFA prices for some vets along the way. The key is picking the vets that matter because they fill needed roles that can't be filled in other ways. I think it's pretty easy to make an argument that Backes meets that bar for at least the next 2-3 years.

If the Blues don't retain Backes, they're setting themselves up to be a (significantly, IMO) worse team next year, not a better one. Maybe they can make back that talent gap elsewhere via FA, but it's not nearly as simple as just snapping your fingers and wishing it to be so.

 

[Majorityof1]

Players are usually underpaid for the beginning of the careers, and usually overpaid for the end. That's how it works, and it's why drafting is now so important. The constant influx of youth is needed to balance the scales against the more expensive vets.

You're going to have a very hard time building a good team if you aren't willing to pay UFA prices for some vets along the way. The key is picking the vets that matter because they fill needed roles that can't be filled in other ways. I think it's pretty easy to make an argument that Backes meets that bar for at least the next 2-3 years.

If the Blues don't retain Backes, they're setting themselves up to be a (significantly, IMO) worse team next year, not a better one. Maybe they can make back that talent gap elsewhere via FA, but it's not nearly as simple as just snapping your fingers and wishing it to be so.

Agreed. And in addition, if we try to make up Backes talent in free agency, we will probably end up paying for someone over 30 anyway. Its rare that players under 30 are available UFA, and the ones that are definitely get overpaid.