Didn't Backes already turn down a good contract extension from the Blues? That pretty much guarantees he won't be back unless it's an overpayment imo. Seems like he kinda wants to leave.
No, he turned down the Blues first offer which was only 3 years term. I doubt the 5.5M was the sticking point, although I bet he gets higher salary too.
The Blues will make him a better offer, and I expect he'll take another below-market value contract to stay with the team/city that he loves. I would hope that he can make a little money in marketing after a successful playoff run to offset that. Honestly wouldn't surprise me if the team make him an informal promise to be incorporated into the front office in some capacity if he wants, after he retires. Anyway, I'm sure people will complain that the Blues are overpaying for a declining player, and that the end of his contract he'll be overpaid.
But so what? If you have a winning formula and a quality player, overpay the guy if you have to. The Blues only have to give Backes a reason to say "yes" to the contract. If he sees that they're trying, I don't think he's going to go elsewhere to squeeze more money.
Having said that, Edmonton needs exactly a guy like Backes. His grit, physicality, defensive responsibility and work ethic. Toronto would love to have him, too. I think he could have a large payday if he so chooses.
Say the Blues do win a Cup, is there a scenario where he says: I did it, now I'm going to get paid? I doubt that. I think this team is a close group of guys and no one is going to want to leave it. I would feel bad for Shattenkirk if he's traded, because I think he'd really prefer to stay.