GDT: Golden Knights @ Oilers - 6:30 PM - SNWest / SN1

[Ol' Jase]

Him and McCurdy probably host the most boring and uninteresting podcast about hockey in the entire universe. Even if what they are talking about is earth shattering, legit and game breaking, their monotone delivery just pisses lack of passion and excitement. Listened a few times but just can’t get past the quality. I don’t read his column but I’m sure it’s about the same.

I still would like to someday hear how his definition of “major mistake” is somehow a quantitative metric.

 

[bellagiobob]

Just read the rules on emergency callups, and I’m curious how the Oilers were able to call up Holloway as an emergency callup, when they already have 18+ healthy skaters.

 

[GOilers88]

For all the love Ekholms getting nobody's talking about his best offensive season of his career at age 33

Product of McDavid.

 

[K1984]

Him and McCurdy probably host the most boring and uninteresting podcast about hockey in the entire universe. Even if what they are talking about is earth shattering, legit and game breaking, their monotone delivery just pisses lack of passion and excitement. Listened a few times but just can’t get past the quality. I don’t read his column but I’m sure it’s about the same.

There was one point where I *think* they were the only podcast that did one after every game. They were innovators in a sense at one point. I used to listen after every game, but they've been passed by. Podcast like Got Yer Back are measures better than what they bring.

 

[Sanchez]

 

[McHelpus]

Keep Vegas in that last WC spot. Have them deal with the Central Division... let that bracket destroy themselves.

 

[PuckG]

I feel like if they have to think about it, they should just rest him...

 

[Da McBomb]

I'm already missing McDavid...

Life is just not the same without you McDaddy

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

Without McDavid lines:

Nuge - Drai - Hyman
Kane - Henrique - Foegele
Holloway - McLeod - Perry
Janmark - Carrick - Brown

Ekholm - Bouchard
Nurse - Ceci
Kulak - Desharnais

Excited to see how the team plays without the captain in. Should be a good game from a rested squad.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I feel like if they have to think about it, they should just rest him...

They probably already know if he’s out or not but why let Vegas know?

 

[PULSATING]

I feel like if they have to think about it, they should just rest him...

He's probably just constipated and waiting to see if he can destroy the toilet a lil before the game.

 

[PuckG]

Would like to see Holloway get some good minutes!

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

He's probably just constipated and waiting to see if he can destroy the toilet a lil before the game.

Tell him to hit a KFC pre game.

 

[Despote]

Well the Kings shitting the bed against Ducks just made this a much more likely playoff preview, especially if Oilers lose. Bummed if Connor is out for a big game like this.

 

[Oilgasms]

Wondering what you guys think of this player poll put out by the NHLPA - I know that McDavid has been a dog in his own end this year but didn't think he'd be up there with the likes of Slavin, Makar, and Hedman

The main board had thoughts that players misunderstood the question lol

 

[guymez]

There was one point where I *think* they were the only podcast that did one after every game. They were innovators in a sense at one point. I used to listen after every game, but they've been passed by. Podcast like Got Yer Back are measures better than what they bring.

I agree.
Not exactly a dynamic podcast (understatement...lol) but I do enjoy some of the detail they provide.

 

[Coffey]

Tried to cut and paste and remove the adverts….


This in from Jonathan Willis, a former colleague at the Cult of Hockey and a fine occasional writer at The Athletic, a stat that got my attention in relation to Darnell Nurse on the penalty kill.

Wrote Willis:



Oilers defencemen at 4v5 over the last 25 games:

Ceci: 59 minutes, -7
Nurse: 50 minutes, -15 (!)
Desharnais: 46 minutes, -6
Ekholm: 46 minutes, even (!!)
Kulak: 23 minutes, -2

It’s long past time for Ekholm/X to be the top PK tandem and for Nurse’s PK minutes to be reduced.

My take​

1. In tracking Nurse at even strength since the All-Star break I’ve noticed a marked drop off in his play at even strength, though he’s been gradually trending upwards in the past month, give or take one horrid game in Dallas. Willis’ numbers appear to indicate Nurse’s struggles on the penalty kill mirror his struggles at even strength.

I’ll take it as a given he’s struggled since the All-Star break at both aspects of his game, even strength and on the PK, and largely for the same reason — he’s been too aggressive and him himself out of position too often.



2. That said, is Willis correct that Ekholm should move ahead of Nurse in the PK pecking order? If you are just hoping to move out a slumping player for one who is at the top of the game, the answer appears to be clear, that Ekholm should get more PK time than Nurse.

At the same time, it’s notoriously difficult to rate a player’s work on the PK. For one thing, even season-long sample sizes of PK work tendsto be short, 100 to 200 minutes for most top PK players. One other issue: correlation does not equal causation, meaning that even if a player is on the ice for a high rate of PK goals against that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s at fault on all or even most of those goals against.


It’s fair to ask just how responsible Nurse is for that -15 in recent months.

3. We attempt to fairly and accurately rate and rank players at the Cult of Hockey through video analysis, by studying repeatedly all Grade A shots and goals for and against the Oilers. We’ve been doing it since 2010-11.

One note of caution about our work in this regard: the penalty kill is by far the hardest aspect of the game to rate and rank fairly. Penalty killers are playing a zone of one sort or another, and their instantaneous judgments of when to attack a puck carrier or when to back off one are crucial to their success. But it’s hard to judge whether or not a defender has made the right choice at the right moment. PK success and failure is determined by split seconds and fractions of inches. That said, we give it our best shot.

4. To ascertain who is and isn’t doing his job well on the PK, I prefer to go with a number of stats, such as the rate of goals against a player is on the ice for (which Willis focuses on in his critique of Nurse), the rate of a player’s major individual mistakes on Grade A shots against and his rate of individual mistakes on goals against. For all these numbers, the bigger the sample size, the better.

If a player does well in all three categories, I consider him to be a strong PK player. If he does poorly, I’ll question his effectiveness.

The quick answer is that Warren Foegele and Cody Ceci have done the best on the PK this year for the Oilers, with Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Vincent Desharnais doing the poorest. If you want more detail, read on.

5. When we look at the rate of on-ice goals against, we see the Oilers give up about one goal every four power players, and that players make mistakes on average on about half of the goals where they are on the ice.

6. The Oilers regular PKers who have been on the ice for the lowest rate of goals against are, in order, Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak, Connor Brown, Mattias Janmark and Cody Ceci. They’re all below or at the team average in this regard.

The regulars on ice for the highest rate of goals against have been, in order, Vincent Desharnais, Derek Ryan, Darnell Nurse and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.



7. When we do video review to determine which players were at fault individually on the goals against, the players with the lowest rate of mistakes are, in order, Foegele, Ceci, Ryan, Kulak, Janmark, Ekholm, McLeod and Brown, all below or at the team average. The highest rate of mistakes on goals are Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse and Desharnais.

8. The stat I put the most weight on is the rate of major mistakes on Grade A shots against on the PK.

The players who did best in this category are Foegele, Ceci, Kulak, McLeod, Janmark, and Ekholm. The players who did worst are Nurse, Desharnais, Brown, Ryan and RNH.



9. Who did relatively poorly in all three categories? Nurse, Desharnais and RNH.

Who did relatively well? Foegele, Ceci, Kulak, Ekholm, Janmark and McLeod, with Brown and Ryan having both stronger and weaker results.

An argument can be made then that Foegele and Ceci have been the Oilers two best penalty killers this year. On the left side of the defence, Ekholm had indeed moved past Nurse, and Kulak in limited minutes has also faired well.

​

wtf this ain't oilerbear

 

[dssource]

Mcdavid should sit regardless. Knights are a dirty team.

Would love to see the Oilers keep them to 2 goals or less tonight.

 

[PULSATING]

Tell him to hit a KFC pre game.

I've had KFC twice in the last decade, both times it gave me a crazy stomach ache. You might be onto something.

 

[PuckG]

View attachment 849352
Wondering what you guys think of this player poll put out by the NHLPA - I know that McDavid has been a dog in his own end this year but didn't think he'd be up there with the likes of Slavin, Makar, and Hedman

The main board had thoughts that players misunderstood the question lol

Check outs to me. He's got a great stick, awareness and is lightening fast. He's also most likely to take any turnover and turn it into something meaningful. All of which make it a pain in the ass to get anything going in our zone.

The main boards has the same posters reciting their own bull**** and acting like it means something.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Him and McCurdy probably host the most boring and uninteresting podcast about hockey in the entire universe. Even if what they are talking about is earth shattering, legit and game breaking, their monotone delivery just pisses lack of passion and excitement. Listened a few times but just can’t get past the quality. I don’t read his column but I’m sure it’s about the same.

I can't imagine turning to David Staples for insight about hockey (or frankly anything).

 

[Porkleaker]

Mcdavid should sit regardless. Knights are a dirty team.

Would love to see the Oilers keep them to 2 goals or less tonight.

Yep, they'd take cheapshots at McDavid all night as would Colorado, prob should sit those two out.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I'd actually like to see this team against elite competition without its captain and rainmaker. A great test to see how they step up in McDavid's absence. Rest Connor rest. Your time to rip Vegas a new one is better served in the winning season!

 

[K1984]

I'd actually like to see this team against elite competition without its captain and rainmaker. A great test to see how they step up in McDavid's absence. Rest Connor rest. Your time to rip Vegas a new one is better served in the winning season!

In the long run I think this could be a blessing in disguise (assuming the injury isn't an actual medium/long term concern). If we show up and play a solid 60 minute game with 20 contributors and win I think that will be a massive, massive motivator going into the playoffs.