General Preds Talk Part V
- Thread starter Dave is a killer
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jwhouk
Former Cheesehead, Always a Preds Fan
We're also not as good as people may think we are. I think we're a 50/50 proposition the rest of the way.
worstfaceoffmanever
These Snacks Are Odd
Flames win in overtime after their fans sing along to "Friends in Low Places." Minnesota now just 6 points up on us and Dallas (Big D has two games in hand on the other teams).
Flames had a 3-1 lead in the 3rd and blew it but I'll take them winning in OT so Wild only get 1 pt.
Dallas and Phoenix both have 2 games in hand but they play each other twice next week. Hoping for Dallas to win in regulation so yotes don't get too far ahead but I'd take a split if Vancouver can lose. LA on a losing streak that is putting the 3 spot in the pacific back into play. We just need to win our next 2 games get up to 63 pts and see where we stand before the break.
The last 10 games have seen us post the second most points (14) in the conference and fifth most in the league. We've gone from "out-of-it" to on the fringe of "in-it". Except for last year, we've been "in-it" since 2004, only missing the playoffs last year and 2008 (the year after the sell-off and even then hung until the last game of the season).
Being "in-it" is the first and most important threshold of Fandome. It provides meaningful games, a reason to watch other teams as their losses are as important as our wins, and provides the all-important intangible called "hope".
Last year was a brisk slap in the face for Pred fans accustomed to being "in-it". Old school, multi-sport fans like myself are painfully aware of the "Walking Dead" plight of an "out-of-it" fan experience. You shut yourself off from highlight shows, blogs, message boards (except to complain), and even attending/watching games. You settle for draft dribble about the next hotshot you can draft if you just keep losing. You miss all the things you cherish about Fandome. Like Fan Zombie's, we're left to stumble around in a unsatisfying, lifeless trance, appearing to be alive, but secretly hoping it'll all end soon.
Which brings us one week from the Olympic Break, a unique reckoning point of each teams "in-it-ness". The green eye shade numbers say we have a 5.4% chance. We need 91 points to have a 44.8% chance. That's 32 points in the last 25 games. This feels daunting for a team that has been allergic to getting over .500. We have almost no Top 6 forwards and we're riding an AHL goalie like SeaBiscuit. So, why do we even rise to the level of "Fringe In-it": Our last 10 games, the fall of the Canucks, and the stumbling of the Yotes, Stars, Wild, and even the Kings. With the new playoff format (top 3 from each Division, then two wild cards), the Nucks, Yotes and Kings will fight it out for the #3 seed in the Pacific. The losers of that fight (likely the Nucks & Yotes) are only 4 points ahead of our Pesky Preds, with one game in hand (Nucks) and 3 points with two games in hand (Yotes). The Mild are 6 points ahead of us with the same number of games. Then there's the irritant of having to jump the Stars, which we're tied with but give up two games in hand, and fend off the Jets behind us.
To put this race in baseball terms, we're at most 3 games out with 25 to play. There are 7 teams fighting for 3 spots. Nucks/Kings/Yotes for #6 seed, then 6 teams fighting for 2 remaining spots. Is it likely we'll prevail? No. Is it plausible? Sure.
Here's why. If we play the last 25 games at the rate of the last 10, we'll post 35 points, totaling 94 points. According to the stat geeks, we'll have an 87.9% chance of making it with 94 points. Can we go 6-2-2 for the next 10, and then the next 10, and then 3-1-1 in the last 5? Probably not, but we've done it for 10 games under less-than-ideal circumstances. We sacrificed 2 games at the alter of Devan Dubnyk's horrid goal-tending. Trotz has learned his lesson. Hutton played back-to-back this weekend, even though he let in two softies in Game #1. That's what our mediocre goal-tending has come to. We lost Cullen and Stals. We're playing Clune!!!!
Here's the blueprint: Split the last two before the Break, preferably beat the Mild. Play Peks in Mke in rehab starts during the Break. Pekka comes back, shakes the rust, and gives us near-Pekka level goal-tending, with a battle-tested Hutton backing him up. We win most of the 4 point games against the Mild, Nucks, Stars, and Yotes. Let the Pacific teams beat each other up, while not having any blow out the others. We get at least 91 points and hope it all falls into place.
Even if we fall short, being "in-it" for March/April is a blessing given how we got there. We've been preparing ourselves for irrelevancy so anything is a plus.
Note of caution: Don't fall prey to the "play for a lottery pick cuz we're one-and-done at best". If we sneak in, anything can happen. We'd likely play the Ducks or Hawks. We play them both well and how fun would the underdog role be?
Trust me, I'm not delusional. This is a long shot, but geez, why deprive yourself of the possibility. Why protect yourself from caring and losing. Invest in the chances, enjoy rooting against the 7 other teams, and take it day-to-day. Just hang around. Remember, all these other teams have Pred-like flaws. We're not trying the catch the Hawks or Ducks. Who would have thought the Canucks would go 3-7 (6 pts) while we went 6-2-2 (14 pts) over the last 10 games: an 8 point swing in 10 games. We’ve got 25 games to work with.
Stuff Happens. Enjoy the ride.
Being "in-it" is the first and most important threshold of Fandome. It provides meaningful games, a reason to watch other teams as their losses are as important as our wins, and provides the all-important intangible called "hope".
Last year was a brisk slap in the face for Pred fans accustomed to being "in-it". Old school, multi-sport fans like myself are painfully aware of the "Walking Dead" plight of an "out-of-it" fan experience. You shut yourself off from highlight shows, blogs, message boards (except to complain), and even attending/watching games. You settle for draft dribble about the next hotshot you can draft if you just keep losing. You miss all the things you cherish about Fandome. Like Fan Zombie's, we're left to stumble around in a unsatisfying, lifeless trance, appearing to be alive, but secretly hoping it'll all end soon.
Which brings us one week from the Olympic Break, a unique reckoning point of each teams "in-it-ness". The green eye shade numbers say we have a 5.4% chance. We need 91 points to have a 44.8% chance. That's 32 points in the last 25 games. This feels daunting for a team that has been allergic to getting over .500. We have almost no Top 6 forwards and we're riding an AHL goalie like SeaBiscuit. So, why do we even rise to the level of "Fringe In-it": Our last 10 games, the fall of the Canucks, and the stumbling of the Yotes, Stars, Wild, and even the Kings. With the new playoff format (top 3 from each Division, then two wild cards), the Nucks, Yotes and Kings will fight it out for the #3 seed in the Pacific. The losers of that fight (likely the Nucks & Yotes) are only 4 points ahead of our Pesky Preds, with one game in hand (Nucks) and 3 points with two games in hand (Yotes). The Mild are 6 points ahead of us with the same number of games. Then there's the irritant of having to jump the Stars, which we're tied with but give up two games in hand, and fend off the Jets behind us.
To put this race in baseball terms, we're at most 3 games out with 25 to play. There are 7 teams fighting for 3 spots. Nucks/Kings/Yotes for #6 seed, then 6 teams fighting for 2 remaining spots. Is it likely we'll prevail? No. Is it plausible? Sure.
Here's why. If we play the last 25 games at the rate of the last 10, we'll post 35 points, totaling 94 points. According to the stat geeks, we'll have an 87.9% chance of making it with 94 points. Can we go 6-2-2 for the next 10, and then the next 10, and then 3-1-1 in the last 5? Probably not, but we've done it for 10 games under less-than-ideal circumstances. We sacrificed 2 games at the alter of Devan Dubnyk's horrid goal-tending. Trotz has learned his lesson. Hutton played back-to-back this weekend, even though he let in two softies in Game #1. That's what our mediocre goal-tending has come to. We lost Cullen and Stals. We're playing Clune!!!!
Here's the blueprint: Split the last two before the Break, preferably beat the Mild. Play Peks in Mke in rehab starts during the Break. Pekka comes back, shakes the rust, and gives us near-Pekka level goal-tending, with a battle-tested Hutton backing him up. We win most of the 4 point games against the Mild, Nucks, Stars, and Yotes. Let the Pacific teams beat each other up, while not having any blow out the others. We get at least 91 points and hope it all falls into place.
Even if we fall short, being "in-it" for March/April is a blessing given how we got there. We've been preparing ourselves for irrelevancy so anything is a plus.
Note of caution: Don't fall prey to the "play for a lottery pick cuz we're one-and-done at best". If we sneak in, anything can happen. We'd likely play the Ducks or Hawks. We play them both well and how fun would the underdog role be?
Trust me, I'm not delusional. This is a long shot, but geez, why deprive yourself of the possibility. Why protect yourself from caring and losing. Invest in the chances, enjoy rooting against the 7 other teams, and take it day-to-day. Just hang around. Remember, all these other teams have Pred-like flaws. We're not trying the catch the Hawks or Ducks. Who would have thought the Canucks would go 3-7 (6 pts) while we went 6-2-2 (14 pts) over the last 10 games: an 8 point swing in 10 games. We’ve got 25 games to work with.
Stuff Happens. Enjoy the ride.
AtlantaWhaler
Thrash/Preds/Sabres
- Jul 3, 2009
- 19,734
- 2,962
worstfaceoffmanever
These Snacks Are Odd
Something to consider when talking moves: the trade deadline is actually really, really close.
Rosters freeze on the 7th, and players leave on the 9th. We have one game before the freeze and two before the break.
Rosters "thaw" on the 23rd, and play resumes on the 25th (although practice resumes the 19th for anyone whose team was eliminated). From the 23rd to the trade deadline is 10 days, so we effectively have two weeks until the deadline - and just five games. That means we're going to have to make judgments on our position in the playoff race very soon, and likely based on where we are after the next two games.
As such, I wouldn't expect a very active trade deadline, especially if we get three points out of these next two games. No Legwand move, no Cullen move, maybe grabbing a value buy like Kulemin, but that's it.
Rosters freeze on the 7th, and players leave on the 9th. We have one game before the freeze and two before the break.
Rosters "thaw" on the 23rd, and play resumes on the 25th (although practice resumes the 19th for anyone whose team was eliminated). From the 23rd to the trade deadline is 10 days, so we effectively have two weeks until the deadline - and just five games. That means we're going to have to make judgments on our position in the playoff race very soon, and likely based on where we are after the next two games.
As such, I wouldn't expect a very active trade deadline, especially if we get three points out of these next two games. No Legwand move, no Cullen move, maybe grabbing a value buy like Kulemin, but that's it.
AintLifeGrand
Burnin Jet-A
Detroit beat Vancouver and they continue their slide. Yotes and Stars play each other tomorrow. Just hoping for no OT.
- Aug 13, 2007
- 35,494
- 15,773
I really think if the bidding for Legwand is crazy and Legwand is willing to leave, Poile might make the trade even if we are on the fringe of competing for a playoff spot. If we can get a first plus a solid prospect, or a real blue chip prospect and a lower level roster player, it might be worth it and just let Spaling center the line Legwand had been on for the rest of the season.
This line of reasoning is predicated on the idea that we aren't going to be signing Legwand this summer, and I think thats highly likely
FossilFndr
RIP Steve
I would definitely hope that Pekka is absolutely positively recovered before he comes back. Having him in the pre injury form for the next years is more important than having him pushed at all in an effort to squeak into this years playoffs.
+++++++++++++++
I recently found this forum after the Predators website shut down that board without warning. I did contact the fan relations twice and got this response from nameless interns.
On January 6th from "Fan Relations Intern"
Thank you for your email!
We are still working on some upgrades and do not know how much longer it should be.
Let us know if you have any other questions!
Thanks and go Preds!
And again when I ask on January 17th
You don't plan on ever reestablishing the board do you?
from Fan Relations Intern
They have told us they are still working on it. I’m sorry I can’t give you a timeline, but it is in progress.
Thanks
For some reason that just doesn't ring true. I'll be surprised if they have not abandoned it completely and are just hoping they can ignore it to death.
Vancouver lost again and we are still 4 pts out of a playoff spot while remaining idle. Dallas beat Phoenix so now it is 5 teams fighting for the 8th spot as Jets won too. Yotes play Jets tomorrow and then Yotes and Stars play each other on Saturday. Big game with the Wild tomorrow.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
Concur. While I'd love to finally see both of my teams in the playoffs at the same time, screwing up Rinne in the process would make it very much not worth it.
Well, for the time being then, welcome to HFBoards.
We also now have a game in hand on Vancouver.
Heck, even the Kings are within striking distance now........
HF is way better than the offical page's boards. The official boards used to be sweet, but then there was a mass exodus of its regular posters, many of them are here now. I haven't even looked for the official boards for like 4 years. Or whenever my join date here was. Plus, way more convenient with every type of hockey conversation all on one site. IMO anyway.
Others have tried contacting members of the front office and gotten the same ****. Even for Sean Henry. I have a feeling
ha ha ha, It's only been a month and a half, their new headmistress ran off everyone else after she claimed the throne. However outright lying to fans seems to be fine, when Sean Henry was last asked about it, he told fans to state their case in having one since they averaged 1.5 posts per day. Writing is on the wall there, no need to keep lying about it.
worstfaceoffmanever
These Snacks Are Odd
Phoenix plays Chicago Friday. They don't play the Jets again until after the break.
The game with Minnesota is an absolute must-win, but it has been that way for weeks.
If we want to catch the Wild, then yes, it is a must win. But even if we lose to Minnesota, we will still be in the playoff hunt, and very much within range of Van/Phoe/Dallas/Winnipeg
We do absolutely have to at least split the Minn/Anaheim games- cannot afford to lose both
Oops. I was just looking at upcoming games and didn't realize it was 1st game after the break. Stars play sharks tonight so lets hope they lose. I knew that teams would come back to us but wasn't expecting the complete meltdown of the Canucks.
@Russostrib
Paramedics in #preds locker room; David Poile hit by puck at skate. He walked and sat self on stretcher; black eye, bloody nose, groggy
NSH615
...
- Feb 13, 2013
- 11,119
- 981
Well not quite a Weber Bomb, but it was off of Weber
Michael Russo @Russostrib said:
Michael Russo @Russostrib said:
According to wild's writer
avid Poile was in the hallway,not on the bench,the team was doing board to board drills and a weber pass ricocheted off blade and into poile's face
avid Poile was in the hallway,not on the bench,the team was doing board to board drills and a weber pass ricocheted off blade and into poile's face- Status
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