GDT: Game #58: Coyotes @ Canadiens - 5:00pm (AZ) - Scripps, Coyotes Corner

[rt]

RT, no offense but I have rebuilt several business's and invested in rebuilds with great managers/leaders, I might have an idea or two and just might know what I'm talking about.

It just couldn’t be more irrelevant. These things are not even a little bit related.

I didn't think you were rude, it’s all good, I enjoy the discussion and perspectives, we all have diverse backgrounds and experiences.

I appreciate and either way, I should be less of an ass.

The rebuild began with Guenther, Doan, Moser and a Fedotov.

Moser and Guenther are already valuable contributors and Doan is looking phenomenal in Tucson already. It happened that quick. Add McBain, Durzi, and Cooley. This rebuild is ahead of schedule. Geekie, Lamoureaux, Lutz, Duda, Matikka, Simashev, But and Hrabal are further away but they’re looking very good.

BA has run three drafts and has 17 top 100 picks. That’s more than 5 years worth of top 100 picks. There’s a good chance that after his draft it will 24 which is 8yrs worth of top 100 picks. Not counting Durzi and McBain. This rebuild is so far ahead of schedule.

The missing ingredient is lottery luck. But nobody has done so much so quick ever. This is the most warp speed rebuild imaginable.

And yet you’re complaining about velocity? It makes no sense. I honestly don’t think you know what a rebuild is or have every really paid attention to one. Or maybe you just forgot or got confused.

 

[cobra427]

OEL looked old, injured and uninspired and was massively overpaid. I think BA worked some absolute magic on that deal. Vancouver is currently paying OEL $19M+ not to play for them anymore because they couldn't find a taker. There are only so many Jim Bennings.

Chychrun was in the plans until he wasn't so it didn't take BA 3 1/2 years to trade him. It was a long time, but I think it was worth the wait, personally. Also gotta acknowledge that other teams wanted to see him healthy before committing to trade for him and he was basically untradeable for a long time.

But anyways, you keep adding time to things. The "it's year 4 of the rebuild" spin and now this. If we traded Schmaltz tomorrow, would you say it took BA 4 1/2 years to trade him? lol.

Your method of speeding up the rebuild is just cutting corners to me. It should never be about how fast you can move a player but always about getting the best return. Even if you have to wait for it.

There is a time value to an asset, and do you think it was great for the players to know RT was going to be let go, how much would they really listen to him knowing he won't be there. What about playing with OEL knowing he was going to get moved, this was all year 1. In years 2 and 3, our best D, Chych was on the trade block. You guys all think this doesn't have an effect on the players or the team, I know it does.

This is why you make moves sooner rather than later when tearing down a business. Employees (players) want to know who is in and who is out. BA mishandled this and we are seeing some repercussions from it now and it has strung out the rebuild.

 

[cobra427]

It just couldn’t be more irrelevant. These things are not even a little bit related.

I appreciate and either way, I should be less of an ass.

The rebuild began with Guenther, Doan, Moser and a Fedotov.

Moser and Guenther are already valuable contributors and Doan is looking phenomenal in Tucson already. It happened that quick. Add McBain, Durzi, and Cooley. This rebuild is ahead of schedule. Geekie, Lamoureaux, Lutz, Duda, Matikka, Simashev, But and Hrabal are further away but they’re looking very good.

BA has run three drafts and has 17 top 100 picks. That’s more than 5 years worth of top 100 picks. There’s a good chance that after his draft it will 24 which is 8yrs worth of top 100 picks. Not counting Durzi and McBain. This rebuild is so far ahead of schedule.

The missing ingredient is lottery luck. But nobody has done so much so quick ever. This is the most warp speed rebuild imaginable.

And yet you’re complaining about velocity? It makes no sense. I honestly don’t think you know what a rebuild is or have every really paid attention to one. Or maybe you just forgot or got confused.

I don't know how many times I have been told "this business is different" and experience in another business doesn't mean anything. This is why you bet the jockey and not the horse.

Last point and post on this topic:

BA rebuild strategy: B so far
BA tear down strategy: D

 

[Jakey53]

Fire RT, decide who you are keeping, get rid of the rest, 6 months max to do this maybe 12 months. Keeping a lame duck coach doesn't help the young players. This is number 1, you need to have leadership that is staying, that wasted a year of development and culture. Leader is the first and most important thing to change. He could have found Bear or another candidate, they would be standing in line, in his first few months.

He waited too long on OEL/Chych trades. I know some will say, he waited and got better returns, maybe, its debatable. What he is forgetting is the time value of an asset. Getting a return sooner allows us to use those assets earlier in our rebuild weather they are picks or players. This is why we are strung out an extra 18 months.

One of those first things I do in a business us run a cash sensitivity analysis, and determine the value of assets. Rather then wait to sell something a year later at a perceived top dollar, you can asses the market and sell it sooner likely at near the same price you would get if you had waited. Its like waiting a year to sell a car for 21K, hoping it doesn't break in that year versus selling it for 20K now and then using the 20k to purchase another car or get get 8% interest some place. Its the time value of an asset, it works the same way based on a business and its cash needs via a cash sensitivity analysis.

I'm sure you have heard of the saying "haste makes waste?" I do agree that RT should have been replaced, but we are now seeing maybe RT wasn't the problem and BA knew this. You have to understand, and the way it sounds you are having a hard time with this is that being a GM and in charge of the players part of the business is NOT the same as other businesses. Everyone of your employees has a contract. You just can't snap your fingers and fire them. And the ones you don't want you have to find someone who does. You don't have trades in any other business. All this cash analysis you talk about is set in place by AM and the Coyotes as a franchise overall, not BA. There is many divisions within a NHL business, and all given guidelines etc. and in BA's case it's a budget, for players, scouts, etc.

 

[Jakey53]

September 2020 BA hired
10 month later: July 2021 OEL traded
3 1/2 years later: March 2023 Chych traded

This a great example, neither player had more market value or what any of us would call great market 10 months and 3 1/2 years later. Sure, you can't snap your fingers, but this was way too long in both cases. We mostly returned picks, that take a long time to develop, we could have had similar picks a draft or two earlier, speeds up the rebuild.

Unfortunately, you, I or anyone else doesn't know what goes on behind close doors. What we do think we know we usually don't. Has BA made mistakes, maybe, but to early to tell yet.

How bad Victor Soderstrom is that he cannot crack that lineup?

Wait until after TTD.

I don't know how many times I have been told "this business is different" and experience in another business doesn't mean anything. This is why you bet the jockey and not the horse.

Last point and post on this topic:

BA rebuild strategy: B so far
BA tear down strategy: D

Cobra knowledge on hockey business: F

 

[rt]

I don't know how many times I have been told "this business is different" and experience in another business doesn't mean anything. This is why you bet the jockey and not the horse.

I understand your point. And I completely agree with it. Sales is sales. Whether it’s industrial supplies, EdTech, agricultural equipment, or Hondas. The is nothing about sales, marketing, manufacturing, or distribution in the public or private sector for B2B or B2C or any of those other industry or market nuances is at all relevant to this. Nothing in your experience or mine applies to this. Launching lunar rovers and launching lemonade stands.

Last point and post on this topic:

BA rebuild strategy: B so far
BA tear down strategy: D

This proves my point. The one begats the other and they are inalienable. Your categorization is telling.

I'm sure you have heard of the saying "haste makes waste?" I do agree that RT should have been replaced…

How dare you!

but we are now seeing maybe RT wasn't the problem…

Very kind. Thank you.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

I don't know how many times I have been told "this business is different" and experience in another business doesn't mean anything.

That's because sports business is different, in all facets, than almost any other business... in the same way that sports journalism is different from journalism in virtually every other context.

I don't know you personally and have only gotten glimpses of your professional life in pieces as you share them in F40 threads, but I am willing to accept that you are successful in your fields and that you have a great deal of earned knowledge from that process. But unless you tell me that you've owned a sports team, in my opinion your knowledge will not apply 1:1. It'd be the same for me if I were trying to comment on the White House reporter pool based on my 30-odd years of covering sports. There are commonalities, but there are also specific and unique departures from the norm that make it impossible to generalize between one discipline and another.

If you asked me, I'd say your experience is far more applicable to Alex Meruelo than it is to Bill Armstrong, because Meruelo's job seems to be more closely aligned with what you have told us you have done and are doing. Your insight into Meruelo's process, therefore, resonates way more with me than your description of BA "doing business" on his rebuild.

That's just me, though.

 

[cobra427]

I understand your point. And I completely agree with it. Sales is sales. Whether it’s industrial supplies, EdTech, agricultural equipment, or Hondas. The is nothing about sales, marketing, manufacturing, or distribution in the public or private sector for B2B or B2C or any of those other industry or market nuances is at all relevant to this. Nothing in your experience or mine applies to this. Launching lunar rovers and launching lemonade stands.

This proves my point. The one begats the other and they are inalienable. Your categorization is telling.


How dare you!

Very kind. Thank you.

Tearing down a business and building a business are 2 different skill sets. Most executives are not really good at both, me included.

 

[Jakey53]

That's because sports business is different, in all facets, than almost any other business... in the same way that sports journalism is different from journalism in virtually every other context.

I don't know you personally and have only gotten glimpses of your professional life in pieces as you share them in F40 threads, but I am willing to accept that you are successful in your fields and that you have a great deal of earned knowledge from that process. But unless you tell me that you've owned a sports team, in my opinion your knowledge will not apply 1:1. It'd be the same for me if I were trying to comment on the White House reporter pool based on my 30-odd years of covering sports. There are commonalities, but there are also specific and unique departures from the norm that make it impossible to generalize between one discipline and another.

If you asked me, I'd say your experience is far more applicable to Alex Meruelo than it is to Bill Armstrong, because Meruelo's job seems to be more closely aligned with what you have told us you have done and are doing. Your insight into Meruelo's process, therefore, resonates way more with me than your description of BA "doing business" on his rebuild.

That's just me, though.

100% correct with your last paragraph.