Speculation: Free Agent Defenceman Targets

[biotk]

If Ceci and Barrie are gone, that'll leave 7.25m cap space, won't it?

Move Johnson out, that'd leave 10.65m space

Hopefully Robertson can come up, so that'd be a saving on Johnsson.

There will be space to add a dman or two.

Assuming you sign Mik for 2.25 (same as Hyman), Dermott for 2M (same as Holl) and Spezza for 700K and trade Johnsson (3.4M gone). You are left with 2.7M - while carrying no spares.

That consists of Matthews, Tavares, Kerfoot, Spezza, Hyman, Mik, Robertson, Engvall, Marner, Nylander, Kapanen and Barabanov as the 12 forwards.
Rielly, Muzzin, Holl, Dermott and Sandin as 5 D (so missing one D)
Freddie and Jack in goal.

That also means not re-signing Clifford - which many on here want - but this team is toast with a lineup as soft as the one above and using Kerfoot as the 3C which was not great this year.

This team has major cap problems. It will not be easy to fix the roster problems unless potentially all of Johnsson, Kerfoot and Kapanen are moved out or they trade out a major contract.

This team continues to overpay players. It is not just Marner and Matthews. Kerfoot, Johnsson, Kapanen, Holl, Engvall are all at least a little overpaid and it is adding up.

There is also the assumption on here that D will want to come to Toronto, and come to Toronto for cheap. Playing D in the biggest market is not something that a lot of D probably want, and based on the way this fanbase has treated D I think that a lot of D want to stay far away.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Given how comparatively cheap DeMelo was at the deadline to other defencemen I'd probably go with him thinking less teams valued him then so the same might apply now and he'd be cheaper than you may guess. But that'd be a fallback to Pietrangelo which I think Dubas would lose sleep over trying to make it work if that were an option.

 

[Al14]

Stay away from Tanev. I live in BC and this guy can't stay healthy.

Exactly... view this...

 

[Knies iT]

Before confirmation of a flat cap, I was hoping for Brodie/Dillon/etc. That ship has sailed, IMO.

Now, even if Johnsson/Kerfoot are moved for futures, there's very little cap to work with after you re-sign Dermott, Mikheyev, Spezza, and Clifford. For that reason, I think the best option is DeMelo.

DeMelo can probably be had in the 3.5m range and can play a more suitable game for the top 4 as a conservative conscience to any pair. Obviously not ideal, but he can be had for less term & $, so there's also less risk involved, which is even more important now that there are rumours of no compliance buyouts coming. Also happens to be one of the youngest UFA defensemen and is a local product from London. Supposedly a coaches favourite, too.

 

[Knies iT]

Before confirmation of a flat cap, I was hoping for Brodie/Dillon/etc. That ship has sailed, IMO.

Now, even if Johnsson/Kerfoot are moved for futures, there's very little cap to work with after you re-sign Dermott, Mikheyev, Spezza, and Clifford. For that reason, I think the best option is DeMelo.

DeMelo can probably be had in the 3.5m range and can play a more suitable game for the top 4 as a conservative conscience to any pair. Obviously not ideal, but he can be had for less term & $, so there's also less risk involved, which is even more important now that there are rumours of no compliance buyouts coming. Also happens to be one of the youngest UFA defensemen and is a local product from London. Supposedly a coaches favourite, too.

Continued...

I don't think this summer is the time to permanently fix the defensive issues, unfortunately. Johnsson's injury, Kapanen's emergence and the organizational weakness at C behind Kerfoot will handcuff management. Add to that the aforementioned stagnant cap and you probably have a worse team on paper moving in to 2021 with limited options to improve.

Bringing in a stop-gap like DeMelo for shorter term and less money also makes that contract moveable (trade or expansion draft) when the team decides to make the big move to upgrade the D. One hypothetical scenario would be to sign DeMelo now, expose one of Holl/DeMelo/Clifford to Seattle in the ED, and then trade the remaining Kerfoot/Johnsson for futures next summer when their value has regressed back to the mean - this would then allow you to sign Dougie Hamilton next summer who will only be 28, rather than selling off pieces now for .60c on the dollar to make room for a mediocre FA fit (e.g. 30 year old Brodie).

 

[4thline]

Looking at a flat cap it's hard to see us fitting anything higher than the Braun/De Melo/Gudas/ TVR class.
I'd also argue that Ceci and Bogosian are viable options in that class as well.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Assuming you sign Mik for 2.25 (same as Hyman), Dermott for 2M (same as Holl) and Spezza for 700K and trade Johnsson (3.4M gone). You are left with 2.7M - while carrying no spares.

That consists of Matthews, Tavares, Kerfoot, Spezza, Hyman, Mik, Robertson, Engvall, Marner, Nylander, Kapanen and Barabanov as the 12 forwards.
Rielly, Muzzin, Holl, Dermott and Sandin as 5 D (so missing one D)
Freddie and Jack in goal.

That also means not re-signing Clifford - which many on here want - but this team is toast with a lineup as soft as the one above and using Kerfoot as the 3C which was not great this year.

This team has major cap problems. It will not be easy to fix the roster problems unless potentially all of Johnsson, Kerfoot and Kapanen are moved out or they trade out a major contract.

This team continues to overpay players. It is not just Marner and Matthews. Kerfoot, Johnsson, Kapanen, Holl, Engvall are all at least a little overpaid and it is adding up.

There is also the assumption on here that D will want to come to Toronto, and come to Toronto for cheap. Playing D in the biggest market is not something that a lot of D probably want, and based on the way this fanbase has treated D I think that a lot of D want to stay far away.

Yep.

The point about the middle block of $3m forwards is has become a bit of an issue, particularly if Kerfoot is playing wing.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Brodie or Tanev would be good at the right price. Wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on Byfuglien if he came cheap.

Otherwise yeah I wouldn’t be shocked to see them go young and put Liljegren I’m in the lineup instead.

 

[Rogue Leader]

Damn, I hate our cap.

 

[GBLeaf]

So, say the roster as of the summer is:

Andersen
Campbell

Rielly
Muzzin
Dermott
Holl
Liljegren
Sandin
Rosen

Matthews
Tavares
Kerfoot
Spezza

Marner
Nylander
Hyman
Kapanen
Engvall
Robertson
Mikheyev @ 2.5m (guesstimate)

Meaning:

Ceci
Barrie
Marincin
Gauthier
Malgin
Clifford
Johnsson

are gone in a trade or whatever


So 3 roster places to fill. What's the remaining budget?

 

[Golden_Jet]

So, say the roster as of the summer is:

Andersen
Campbell

Rielly
Muzzin
Dermott
Holl
Liljegren
Sandin
Rosen

Matthews
Tavares
Kerfoot
Spezza

Marner
Nylander
Hyman
Kapanen
Engvall
Robertson
Mikheyev @ 2.5m (guesstimate)

Meaning:

Ceci
Barrie
Marincin
Gauthier
Malgin
Clifford
Johnsson

are gone in a trade or whatever


So 3 roster places to fill. What's the remaining budget?

Not sure, check capfriendly

 

[biotk]

So, say the roster as of the summer is:

Andersen
Campbell

Rielly
Muzzin
Dermott
Holl
Liljegren
Sandin
Rosen

Matthews
Tavares
Kerfoot
Spezza

Marner
Nylander
Hyman
Kapanen
Engvall
Robertson
Mikheyev @ 2.5m (guesstimate)

Meaning:

Ceci
Barrie
Marincin
Gauthier
Malgin
Clifford
Johnsson

are gone in a trade or whatever


So 3 roster places to fill. What's the remaining budget?

Under 1.8M (assuming Spezza is signed at 700K and Dermott at 2M)

 

[The Podium]

Assuming you sign Mik for 2.25 (same as Hyman), Dermott for 2M (same as Holl) and Spezza for 700K and trade Johnsson (3.4M gone). You are left with 2.7M - while carrying no spares.

That consists of Matthews, Tavares, Kerfoot, Spezza, Hyman, Mik, Robertson, Engvall, Marner, Nylander, Kapanen and Barabanov as the 12 forwards.
Rielly, Muzzin, Holl, Dermott and Sandin as 5 D (so missing one D)
Freddie and Jack in goal.

That also means not re-signing Clifford - which many on here want - but this team is toast with a lineup as soft as the one above and using Kerfoot as the 3C which was not great this year.

This team has major cap problems. It will not be easy to fix the roster problems unless potentially all of Johnsson, Kerfoot and Kapanen are moved out or they trade out a major contract.

This team continues to overpay players. It is not just Marner and Matthews. Kerfoot, Johnsson, Kapanen, Holl, Engvall are all at least a little overpaid and it is adding up.

There is also the assumption on here that D will want to come to Toronto, and come to Toronto for cheap. Playing D in the biggest market is not something that a lot of D probably want, and based on the way this fanbase has treated D I think that a lot of D want to stay far away.

I wouldnt say Kerfoot, Johnsson, Kap, Holl or Engvall are overpaid, more that their cap hits are a luxury we cant afford. They are worth their money, IMO, just making things difficult for us. We need to redistribute money and bottom 6 depth to top 4 D is the least detrimental way.

Personally, I cant imagine an offseason plan where we upgrade D without ridding ourselves of at least 2 of Kerfoot/Johnsson/Kap (obviously for different valued returns).

Here is a bare bone roster, leaving us 3.4 mill (+ the caphit of the player being replaced) in cap space (albeit maybe underestimating Mikheyevs AAV) for upgrades.

 

[GBLeaf]

Under 1.8M (assuming Spezza is signed at 700K and Dermott at 2M)

Andersen - 5
Campbell - 1.65

Rielly - 5
Muzzin - 5.625
Dermott - 2
Holl - 2
Liljegren - .863
Sandin - .894
Rosen - .750

Matthews - 11.634
Tavares - 11
Kerfoot - 3.5
Spezza - .700

Marner - 10.893
Nylander - 6.962
Hyman - 2.250
Kapanen - 3.2
Engvall - 1.25
Robertson - .850
Mikheyev - 2.5

Kessel retention - 1.2

Total = 79.8

Cap if it stays flat - 81.50

Leaves 1.7m

So probably have to move Kerfoot.

Meaning 5.2m for 3 roster places if picks alone are in return.

 

[Menzinger]

In our budget, Chris Tanev might be an option.

But honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if our top 6 are the 5 you listed and Liljegren

Maybe but Mirtles mentioned more than a few times now management likely looks to clear space to go shopping for a guy or two. Seems like smoke theres fire ect.

I suspect management will be under enough pressure now that some sort of move here will happen rather than status quo

 

[biotk]

Leaves 1.7m

So probably have to move Kerfoot.

Meaning 5.2m for 3 roster places if picks alone are in return.

True - except if you also move Kerfoot then you now have 4 roster spots.

 

[Menzinger]

The other thing is that I dont think the Leafs 100% neer that 1RHD (though obviously that would be great ro have in an ideal world).

What they really need is a safe guy who can just eat up minutes on the right side while not being a liability defensively. That shouldnt be TOO hsrd to find

 

[Menzinger]

Andersen - 5
Campbell - 1.65

Rielly - 5
Muzzin - 5.625
Dermott - 2
Holl - 2
Liljegren - .863
Sandin - .894
Rosen - .750

Matthews - 11.634
Tavares - 11
Kerfoot - 3.5
Spezza - .700

Marner - 10.893
Nylander - 6.962
Hyman - 2.250
Kapanen - 3.2
Engvall - 1.25
Robertson - .850
Mikheyev - 2.5

Kessel retention - 1.2

Total = 79.8

Cap if it stays flat - 81.50

Leaves 1.7m

So probably have to move Kerfoot.

Meaning 5.2m for 3 roster places if picks alone are in return.

They can probably get Dermott tor closer to 1.5 than 2 especially on a short term deal

 

[The Podium]

The other thing is that I dont think the Leafs 100% neer that 1RHD (though obviously that would be great ro have in an ideal world).

What they really need is a safe guy who can just eat up minutes on the right side while not being a liability defensively. That shouldnt be TOO hsrd to find

They need a RHD Muzzin or a similar player of either handedness. NYI might be the offseason target, one of D. Toews or Mayfield.

 

[biotk]

I wouldnt say Kerfoot, Johnsson, Kap, Holl or Engvall are overpaid, more that their cap hits are a luxury we cant afford. They are worth their money, IMO, just making things difficult for us.

Sure, maybe it would have been more appropriate if I had said that the Leafs' management group should have squeezed those players harder. They would also bring better returns if their cap hits were lower. The way I see it is that Hyman was a more valuable all around player at the time of his signing than Kerfoot, Johnsson or Kapanen were. They are making 1M+ more a season than he is. They should have been squeezed. And Engvall should have squeezed to the point that his hit could be fully buried if need be.

We need to redistribute money and bottom 6 depth to top 4 D is the least detrimental way.

Personally, I cant imagine an offseason plan where we upgrade D without ridding ourselves of at least 2 of Kerfoot/Johnsson/Kap (obviously for different valued returns).

Here is a bare bone roster, leaving us 3.4 mill (+ the caphit of the player being replaced) in cap space (albeit maybe underestimating Mikheyevs AAV) for upgrades.

View attachment 344807

Yes, I don't think it is possible to upgrade the D without getting rid of at least 2 of them. But even there, they are maxing out at around 4M for that D upgrade, without carrying spares, with a lineup that has a lot of issues and, whether or not they re-sign Clifford, I don't they can enter the season without a similar presence in the lineup.

 

[Beaumaris]

Andersen - 5
Campbell - 1.65

Rielly - 5
Muzzin - 5.625
Dermott - 2
Holl - 2
Liljegren - .863
Sandin - .894
Rosen - .750

Matthews - 11.634
Tavares - 11
Kerfoot - 3.5
Spezza - .700

Marner - 10.893
Nylander - 6.962
Hyman - 2.250
Kapanen - 3.2
Engvall - 1.25
Robertson - .850
Mikheyev - 2.5

Kessel retention - 1.2

Total = 79.8

Cap if it stays flat - 81.50

Leaves 1.7m

So probably have to move Kerfoot.

Meaning 5.2m for 3 roster places if picks alone are in return.

Andersen $5M Ouch!

 

[The Podium]

Sure, maybe it would have been more appropriate if I had said that the Leafs' management group should have squeezed those players harder. They would also bring better returns if their cap hits were lower. The way I see it is that Hyman was a more valuable all around player at the time of his signing than Kerfoot, Johnsson or Kapanen were. They are making 1M+ more a season than he is. They should have been squeezed. And Engvall should have squeezed to the point that his hit could be fully buried if need be.



Yes, I don't think it is possible to upgrade the D without getting rid of at least 2 of them. But even there, they are maxing out at around 4M for that D upgrade, without carrying spares, with a lineup that has a lot of issues and, whether or not they re-sign Clifford, I don't they can enter the season without a similar presence in the lineup.

My mock up was 3.5 mill with 2 spares, if you include Dermott + no spares you have roughly 7 mill to spend on a D

 

[Dion TheFluff]

The other thing is that I dont think the Leafs 100% neer that 1RHD (though obviously that would be great ro have in an ideal world).

What they really need is a safe guy who can just eat up minutes on the right side while not being a liability defensively. That shouldnt be TOO hsrd to find

yeah even just a stop gape until the young guys develop or the perfect fit becomes available.

 

[IPS]

They need a RHD Muzzin or a similar player of either handedness. NYI might be the offseason target, one of D. Toews or Mayfield.

I think the Leafs and Isles would make good trade partners. Mayfield would definitely be a good fit for the Leafs, and we got some good offensive pieces we can send back the Isles' way.

 

[Legion34]

Damn, I hate our cap.

imagine being a fan of a team that won’t be able to keep the lights on. I think there will be many teams who will be in a bad spot with this pandemic. The leafs only being able to spend 81 million will pale in comparison