Value of: Freddy Andersen next contract

Martin Skoula

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Oct 18, 2017
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I bet a lot of teams are facing Andersen-equivalent situations next offseason, all positions considered. Speaking for my own, most of us know we're losing Tatar either for nothing or a pick at the TDL. In Toronto's case, their cap structure makes it even more jaw-dropping as to how much work Dubas has to accomplish next summer in order to minimize the inherent damages that come with a flat cap.

I guess for them it all depends on whether the top heavy cap structure is given the green light by ownership for one more, or several more years. That model may not be so sustainable with 2 to 4 years of flat cap ahead of us. On top of that, from what we've seen with the non-compliant Lightning the negotiations to trade assets in favor of cap space do not seem to be going well. Presumably a disconnect in expectations / value from the different parties involved. That does not bode well for a potential Nylander deal that would bring back a prospect & cap relief. For now.

Tampa's problem is that everyone who's worth their cap hit has an NTC, Toronto does not have that problem. There's a difference between moving Johnson on the back half of his career vs moving a 24 year old Nylander coming off a career season.

Plus, like you said, there's a lot of teams facing Andersen situations in the near future, there are likely to be mediocre starters like Andersen that find themselves being everyone's 2nd or 3rd choice in UFA and have to settle for 3-4 mil until the market fixes itself. There's quite literally 0 reason for Toronto to panic about Andersen.
 

steveat

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Jun 4, 2011
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In this climate. I can't see him getting more than 4mill. Say what you will, I think he's gonna have to take a hair cut.
 

Fatass

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Apr 17, 2017
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Same as Markstrom just got? Or is Freddy the better (proven more over a longer time) goalie, so he gets a bit more?
 

TOGuy14

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Dec 30, 2010
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Andy is a good but not GREAT goalie.

He is probably around 9-10th ranked in the league IMO

I play out the season and make a decision in the offseason before any deals get signed here
 

Knies iT

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Mar 6, 2015
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Whatever it is, and despite his friendship with Matthews, it would be very difficult for the Leafs to renew his contract under a flat cap & extensions to Hyman and Dermott.

Take 5-5.5M away from 13.5M cap space and add two roster spots, you now have 8-8.5M left to sign eight (8) value deals averaging a little more than $1M/year -- including a starter.

In other words, about one third of the NHL roster will still be $1M players and you just lose Andersen while staying the course, replacing him with a Jack Campbell type in the starter role.

Different story if Dubas were to alter the 40M/4 cap structure via major trade... maybe he's actually betting on the flat cap going away as soon as next year, who knows.
Not necessarily, assuming Freddy signs for a shorter term of, say, 3 years.

Hyman's raise won't exceed 4mAAV in this climate, which can be mostly covered by Kessel's retention coming off the cap this summer. Rielly's raise can be entirely covered by trading Kerfoot for futures and replacing him at 3C with an internal option like Hallander, Abramov, Engvall, etc. or a cheap bargain bin player (e.g. Thornton). Dermott has arbitration rights after his current 1 year deal, so the Leafs will likely be able to decide the term and opt for a 2 year deal similar to Mikheyev; with Dermott's role not being conducive to high production, he won't have much of a case for a big raise yet. Holl's 2mill or Engvall's 1.2mill could be moved for more flexibility too.

The problem with signing Andersen comes after the Dermott/Lehtonen bridges expire (i'm expecting a similar deal for Mikko), but you could trade the last year of his deal to a team desperate for goaltending at that point instead of losing him in UFA now.

It can be done. The question is if you want to improve further by adding a Lowry piece in the off-season, then you'd likely be looking at a 1A-1B tandem setup with a starter coming in at 50% of Andersen's cap hit.
 

DarthProbert

Registered User
Feb 3, 2015
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I'm not sure how much the flat cap will impact contracts next year, but why would Andersen accept anything less than what Markstrom just signed for? Andersen is 1 year older so I could see a 5 year term instead of the 6 that Markstrom got but if you look at the past 4 seasons for Markstrom/Andersen they are very comparable. Andersen has had more time as a starter, has had more wins and a better save percentage than Markstrom. While JM has had better gaa. Again I totally understand the economics might impact FA's ability to maximize his $$$ but if I'm Andersen's agent I push for the Markstrom deal.

Agreed totally at the comparable and the one year less term due to age. 5x$6 out of Carolina would be my guess.
 

CraigsList

In Conroy We Trust
Apr 22, 2014
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I think he'd be willing to go short term (2-4 years) depending on how much money is being offered. He's still a good goalie, but there should still be a buyer's beware tag on him in case he regresses.
 

Fatass

Registered User
Apr 17, 2017
22,213
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Andy is a good but not GREAT goalie.

He is probably around 9-10th ranked in the league IMO

I play out the season and make a decision in the offseason before any deals get signed here
Is there a UFA goalie coming up next season (same as timing as Freddy) that would be an upgrade, and not cost more than resigning Freddy will? In Vancouver we let Marky go, and signed Holtby for less cap and term than Marky would have cost, but I think we took a step backwards in nets. The Leafs are far better (overall) than the Canucks, so they might be better able to absorb lesser tending, but it’s still a risk.
 

Legion34

Registered User
Jan 24, 2006
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Just like every leaf player here.

They will never be able to sign him. He will get more somewhere else.

then he will sign in Toronto for less
Than predicted and be overpaid somehow
 

Syckle78

Registered User
Nov 5, 2011
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Leaf fans talking about Andersen putting up a poor performance after posting a .936 save percentage are hilarious. Anything to not admit their vaunted offense was shut down and were to blame for the loss. I don't give a f*** what anyone says anytime your goalie posts a .936 save percentage it's your offense that shit the bed, you can not ask for a better performance than that.
 

Boondock

Registered User
Feb 6, 2009
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Thing is Holtby has a championship and a Vezina and took a pay cut
He also posted a 3.11 gaa and a save percentage under .900, and he lost his starting job to Samsonov. If Andersen bombs out this season and loses the net to Campbell then yes he can probably be resigned for less. If he posts close to his 4 year average 2.78gaa and a .917 sv %, I think he will get similar money to Markstrom.
 

Nothingbutglass

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
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Just like every leaf player here.

They will never be able to sign him. He will get more somewhere else.

then he will sign in Toronto for less
Than predicted and be overpaid somehow
This thread was missing an off-topic whining victim post. Its complete now.
 

Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
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London, ON
Leaf fans talking about Andersen putting up a poor performance after posting a .936 save percentage are hilarious. Anything to not admit their vaunted offense was shut down and were to blame for the loss. I don't give a f*** what anyone says anytime your goalie posts a .936 save percentage it's your offense that shit the bed, you can not ask for a better performance than that.

Tbh you're not really telling the full story.

Andersen was horrible in the season. Even when our defense improved after Keefe took over he managed to become even worse. 5v5 we were 2nd in xGF/60 and 15th in xGA/60. That was with our two best defenseman out for a lot of it with injuries. He flopped hard in the season.

Fred was good/great in the playoffs (other than a few back breaking goals), but the Leafs outplayed CBJ for the most part. The issue wasn't the offense so much as Korpisalo/Elvis playing lights out. Ffs the Leafs shot 2.02% at 5v5. We got goalied.
 
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Legion34

Registered User
Jan 24, 2006
18,216
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Its pathetic and tiresome. Win a playoff series and you can lose the perennial loser tag...well you cant, but your team can. Anyway, your issues are off-topic to the thread topic.

Hmmmm I think the repeated pattern of

“you can’t afford him” to be followed by “you overpaid” is pretty on topic. Considering it is the exact pattern that has played out.

Sad obsessions and attacks about victim complexes and “win a playoff round” are a little off topic.

but just as predictable as exactly how this thread will play out.

there will be a Hyman thread in a few days too. That will follow the exact same pattern

Next will be comments about 67 I’m sure.
 
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