Post-Game Talk: Flames @ Sharks (2/11/16)

[Grave]

LOL, that's awesome. Let me add;

"ummmm"
(scratching head, eyes wide open, shakes head, scratches had again, slaps palm over his eyes and forhead,,,,,),,,,"WTFudge ?!?!"

 

[19sharks19]

LOL,,,,,,that's awesome. Luv it.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Listen to what you're saying.

Either the defense is the same in front of both so stalock is just bad (my vote)

The defense is "marginally" better in front of jones...so see first option. If the difference isn't that much then stalock should be over 900.

Or and by your own admission the team isn't confident in him and plays like ****.

These are the options. So...in what world should stalock remain a shark?

Sorry but saying they're playing the same in front of him AND saying that the team isn't confident in him and get deflated is contradictory. You can't have both those statements. And again, no it's not at all true that if the defense is just marginally better in front of Jones that Stalock should be over .900. There is simply no evidence to support that statement. And you're not using 'by your own admission' properly because I never admitted such a thing. It was a statement of what others say about the situation.

Are you defending that 4th goal? If you are, 1) you're arguing for the sake of arguing or 2) You've just lost all credibility on what you post.

This is not the first time Stalocks come charging out of the crease and ended up letting in an ENG because hes lost his edge and fell over. In fact, if someone would make a youtube video of Stalocks gaffes, he would probably be a youtube star.

I'm not arguing for the sake of arguing and I haven't lost any credibility. No, it's not the first time that he's come out aggressively and someone outwaited him but a goalie like him has to be aggressive because staying back is just going to get him picked apart...simple as that. But either way, that defensive breakdown cannot happen given the circumstances. It was atrocious defense that teams like Edmonton and Toronto do. Contending teams don't have that kind of defensive breakdown.

 

[do0glas]

Sorry but saying they're playing the same in front of him AND saying that the team isn't confident in him and get deflated is contradictory. You can't have both those statements. And again, no it's not at all true that if the defense is just marginally better in front of Jones that Stalock should be over .900. There is simply no evidence to support that statement. And you're not using 'by your own admission' properly because I never admitted such a thing. It was a statement of what others say about the situation.



I'm not arguing for the sake of arguing and I haven't lost any credibility. No, it's not the first time that he's come out aggressively and someone outwaited him but a goalie like him has to be aggressive because staying back is just going to get him picked apart...simple as that. But either way, that defensive breakdown cannot happen given the circumstances. It was atrocious defense that teams like Edmonton and Toronto do. Contending teams don't have that kind of defensive breakdown.

You said in your post "they play marginally better in front of jones". What else should I infer from that other than its you saying it?

Also I wasn't using both I was giving you the either or scenario. His play is what it is so those three options are what we have. So no matter how you shake it he shouldn't be a shark in the offseason. If you can argue otherwise go ahead but if you can't I'm not sure why'd you'd bother defending him.

 

[Bleedred]

At least when Martin Jones lets in bad goals or plays bad, he takes responsibility for his play. I think even on that one Stalock let in from center ice, he still didn't take responsibility for letting it in.

Jones has even taken responsibility for bad games where he didn't even necessarily play bad.

Stalock is the worst goaltender in the league right now, why is this even an argument?

Arizona doesn't even have a goaltender on their roster as bad as Stalock this season, neither does Edmonton, nor Calgary (not after last night at least), nor Toronto, nor Ottawa (most shots allowed in the league per game), nor Buffalo. Even the scrubs playing in place of Bobrovsky during his injury on the CBJ have been better, as have the non Price SCRUB goaltenders that have played for Montreal this season.

And these teams don't have a worst defense than San Jose? REALLY? Are you kidding me?! These teams are a joke, yet all have goaltenders on their roster better than Stalock.

Stalock sucks. I hope the AHL or European league team he plays behind next year has a good defense.

If Stalock played for the Kings or Ducks, everyone here would be giggling at laughing about how much he sucks.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Stalock could have be playing .780 for the rest of his career and people would still defend his play.

 

[DystopianTierney]

The problem with your stats is that they are the wrong sample size.

Ward-Marleau-Nieto have only been the "shutdown" line since Hertl was put on the top line, and cooch came back. Looking at their stats for the whole year is faulty logic.

Over the last 15 games since they were put together:

Marleau cf% 50.70 (10) ff% 51.15(10) zs% 37.50(13) SATF 180(6) SATA 175(4) SATF/60 50.42 SATA/60 49.02

Ward. Cf% 50.97(9) ff% 50.97(11) zs% 38.33(12) SATF 183(5) SATA 176(3) SATF/60 53.51 SATA/60 51.46

Nieto. Cf% 54.52(4) ff% 55.08(6) zs% 41.35(11) SATF 187(4) SATA 156(7) SATF/60 56.83 SATA/60 47.42

When you average out their numbers, and compare them to the same set of data, for our third line averaged, it looks like this:

Line 2- Cf% 52.06 ff% 52.40 zs% 39.06 SATF 183.33 SATA 169.00 SATF/60 53.59 SATA/60 49.30
Line 3- Cf% 50.91 ff% 52.02 zs% 49.00 SATF 151.00 SATA 145.67 SATF/60 50.68 SATA/60 48.84

So based on all these stats, I see no objective reason to say our 2nd line isn't playing perfectly fine as a shutdown line. Each player is above even in corsi and fenwick, while getting horrific zone starts, they are creating a ton of shots, and not allowing any noticeably large amount of shots against.

The only place our second line is having trouble right now, is scoring. The question though is why. Is it maybe because they are playing tough comp, and starting almost two thirds of the time in their D zone? Maybe it's because nieto, or ward, or Marleau suck at scoring ES? Or maybe it's a little bit of both, plus some bad luck?

Who knows, but what I do know, is that as a whole, that line is doing just fine in a shutdown role, and don't see any reason to mess with it, or any line really, except bringing Brown back for Zubrus, no joke.

Stats look passable when you discount actual production. There is no doubt DeBoer has been rolling out Marleau and Ward in a defensive role all season, but have they really been successful in that role? A lot of it has to do with Couture being out most of the year, and DeBoer is only just starting to ease some of the weight back onto him. The "3rd line" is already starting to trend towards being used in a two-way role now that Couture is getting back to full health. I think you will see the zone start disparity shrink between the two lines, and the Marleau/Ward line will get some much needed relief.

Marleau, Ward, Nieto, and Wingels have all been deployed in defensive roles this season, and Ward is the only one of them who isn't a full goal per 60 below his on ice production. Look around the league and tell me how this portrays success in a shutdown role when compared to other players being deployed in that fashion. Production matters, and Ward is the only one who is close to passing.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You said in your post "they play marginally better in front of jones". What else should I infer from that other than its you saying it?

Also I wasn't using both I was giving you the either or scenario. His play is what it is so those three options are what we have. So no matter how you shake it he shouldn't be a shark in the offseason. If you can argue otherwise go ahead but if you can't I'm not sure why'd you'd bother defending him.

Except your by your own admission statement had to do with the team being confident with him not the marginally better stuff. I don't really care if Stalock is a Shark next season or not. His contract is up. His position is not important and there will be free agents out there to replace him if necessary. The defense being as bad as it has been is what's really important about this stuff. People want to just brush it off like it just happens so goalies need to make the stop and there is a degree of truth to that but not anywhere near as much as people seem to expect here. They are a poor defensive team relative to the teams that will be playoff teams and/or contenders. You don't win come April, May, and June playing defense the way the Sharks do.

Stats look passable when you discount actual production. There is no doubt DeBoer has been rolling out Marleau and Ward in a defensive role all season, but have they really been successful in that role? A lot of it has to do with Couture being out most of the year, and DeBoer is only just starting to ease some of the weight back onto him. The "3rd line" is already starting to trend towards being used in a two-way role now that Couture is getting back to full health. I think you will see the zone start disparity shrink between the two lines, and the Marleau/Ward line will get some much needed relief.

Marleau, Ward, Nieto, and Wingels have all been deployed in defensive roles this season, and Ward is the only one of them who isn't a full goal per 60 below his on ice production. Look around the league and tell me how this portrays success in a shutdown role when compared to other players being deployed in that fashion. Production matters, and Ward is the only one who is close to passing.

Well, considering the shutdown role's focus is defense and not offense, I don't see how lowering production shows anything relevant about how effective they are in that role. And while one may argue the 3rd line being used more in a two-way fashion, they're still not close to being used in the shutdown role. That line would get smoked against top competition.

 

[Dicdonya]

Stats look passable when you discount actual production. There is no doubt DeBoer has been rolling out Marleau and Ward in a defensive role all season, but have they really been successful in that role? A lot of it has to do with Couture being out most of the year, and DeBoer is only just starting to ease some of the weight back onto him. The "3rd line" is already starting to trend towards being used in a two-way role now that Couture is getting back to full health. I think you will see the zone start disparity shrink between the two lines, and the Marleau/Ward line will get some much needed relief.

Marleau, Ward, Nieto, and Wingels have all been deployed in defensive roles this season, and Ward is the only one of them who isn't a full goal per 60 below his on ice production. Look around the league and tell me how this portrays success in a shutdown role when compared to other players being deployed in that fashion. Production matters, and Ward is the only one who is close to passing.

Please define what you think "shutdown" means then.

I'm my world shutdown does not depend on your production, but how you "shutdown" the opponents from scoring. So if for example kopitar scores 1.0 ppg, and when you play him he only scores .25 ppg, you have effectively shut him down. How much I score has nothing to do with shutting down anyone.

Would you agree if kopitar normally scores 1.00 gpg, and against me he still scores 1.0 ppg, but I score 1.5 ppg, that I am indeed not a shutdown line/player? Instead I'm just better at producing offense than him/his line?

Unless I'm misunderstanding your definition on "actual production" then it seems you don't think Vlassic/Braun is our "shutdown" D pair, because (outside of this year) they have always produced very low "actual production".

 

[Hangemhigh]

I love hockey math!

 

[DystopianTierney]

Well, considering the shutdown role's focus is defense and not offense, I don't see how lowering production shows anything relevant about how effective they are in that role. And while one may argue the 3rd line being used more in a two-way fashion, they're still not close to being used in the shutdown role. That line would get smoked against top competition.

Please define what you think "shutdown" means then.

I'm my world shutdown does not depend on your production, but how you "shutdown" the opponents from scoring. So if for example kopitar scores 1.0 ppg, and when you play him he only scores .25 ppg, you have effectively shut him down. How much I score has nothing to do with shutting down anyone.

Would you agree if kopitar normally scores 1.00 gpg, and against me he still scores 1.0 ppg, but I score 1.5 ppg, that I am indeed not a shutdown line/player? Instead I'm just better at producing offense than him/his line?

Unless I'm misunderstanding your definition on "actual production" then it seems you don't think Vlassic/Braun is our "shutdown" D pair, because (outside of this year) they have always produced very low "actual production".

I'm talking production for and against when they are on the ice, not personal production.

Vlasic and Braun are our shutdown D pair. Yes, they surrender a good amount of goals being deployed in tough situations, but the stats clearly show they are thriving in that role.

People want to rip Burns for his GF%...

What other shutdown players around the league, that you would call successful, are giving a full goal per 60 less than they are contributing? Shutdown players are expected to not only keep teams off the board, but also outproduce what they give up... Especially when they are "2nd line" forwards.

What other successful shutdown line is a combined -38 on the season.

 

[do0glas]

Damn not only are brain and vlasic the only positive guys. They gave the least goals against and the most goals for on the team. Crazy town. They should be out there way more than burns lol.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm talking production for and against when they are on the ice, not personal production.

Vlasic and Braun are our shutdown D pair. Yes, they surrender a good amount of goals being deployed in tough situations, but the stats clearly show they are thriving in that role.

People want to rip Burns for his GF%...

What other shutdown players around the league, that you would call successful, are giving a full goal per 60 less than they are contributing? Shutdown players are expected to not only keep teams off the board, but also outproduce what they give up... Especially when they are "2nd line" forwards.

What other successful shutdown line is a combined -38 on the season.

I think your expectations are a little out of line with reality. Most shutdown lines aren't expected to outproduce top competition especially when it's not top offensive talent that are taking those minutes. Also, Vlasic and Braun don't solely take on shutdown minutes. They get their fair share of minutes with Jumbo's line as well.

You're more than capable of finding those other shutdown lines and comparing them. The line itself is not at its most optimal in terms of complimentary talent but using +/- as a method of defensive effectiveness is just weak. It's a useless stat and always has been for that purpose.

 

[Alwalys]

Shutdown is a role. It means you are more or less hard matched against the top offensive players on the other team. Regardless of success.

 

[Dicdonya]

I'm talking production for and against when they are on the ice, not personal production.

Vlasic and Braun are our shutdown D pair. Yes, they surrender a good amount of goals being deployed in tough situations, but the stats clearly show they are thriving in that role.

People want to rip Burns for his GF%...

What other shutdown players around the league, that you would call successful, are giving a full goal per 60 less than they are contributing? Shutdown players are expected to not only keep teams off the board, but also outproduce what they give up... Especially when they are "2nd line" forwards.

What other successful shutdown line is a combined -38 on the season.

Once again, I'm not arguing the whole year. I'm talking about the last 15, since Marleau, Ward and Nieto have been together, and playing shutdown minutes. Before that time each of those players were getting different line mates, the team was worse, and ward was injured some.

Over that time they are essentially -4 each, or -1 about every 4 games. When you consider Marleau has literally ZERO Es points over that time frame, and nieto has like 3, the fact that they are only -3 to -5 tell me they have done a damn good job of not getting scored on.

When you also factor in their possession numbers, and see how insanely low their Ozone starts are(also doesn't help no one is winning face offs lately) I simply don't see any significantly concerning data that would point to them sucking, or failing as a shutdown line. With them taking those minutes our 1sr and 3rd lines have been able to kick ass, which is exactly the point of sacrificing one line as a shutdown line. The teams been winning better then ever too. In other words, that line ain't broke, so don't fix it.

 

[DystopianTierney]

I think your expectations are a little out of line with reality. Most shutdown lines aren't expected to outproduce top competition especially when it's not top offensive talent that are taking those minutes. Also, Vlasic and Braun don't solely take on shutdown minutes. They get their fair share of minutes with Jumbo's line as well.

You're more than capable of finding those other shutdown lines and comparing them. The line itself is not at its most optimal in terms of complimentary talent but using +/- as a method of defensive effectiveness is just weak. It's a useless stat and always has been for that purpose.

I've looked, and it shows that my expectations are not out of line with reality. Most top 9 talent are eating those minutes and have positive production. The exception for playoff teams is SJ and ANA. Kesler/Silfverberg/Cogliano are all around a G/60 below, but they also have much higher quality of comp numbers. Not a good indication considering how bad Kesler and the Ducks were to start the season.

Braun and Vlasic do get the benefit of having forwards on the ice to do the scoring for them. However, they still get the worse zone starts on the team and come out positive.

Shutdown is a role. It means you are more or less hard matched against the top offensive players on the other team. Regardless of success.

Once again, I'm not arguing the whole year. I'm talking about the last 15, since Marleau, Ward and Nieto have been together, and playing shutdown minutes. Before that time each of those players were getting different line mates, the team was worse, and ward was injured some.

Over that time they are essentially -4 each, or -1 about every 4 games. When you consider Marleau has literally ZERO Es points over that time frame, and nieto has like 3, the fact that they are only -3 to -5 tell me they have done a damn good job of not getting scored on.

When you also factor in their possession numbers, and see how insanely low their Ozone starts are(also doesn't help no one is winning face offs lately) I simply don't see any significantly concerning data that would point to them sucking, or failing as a shutdown line. With them taking those minutes our 1sr and 3rd lines have been able to kick ass, which is exactly the point of sacrificing one line as a shutdown line. The teams been winning better then ever too. In other words, that line ain't broke, so don't fix it.

No. It's not the point.

You don't sacrifice a line as a shutdown unit. You send them out there because you believe they can handle it and come back on the positive side.

You really think coaches are happy to throw their "shutdown" line out on the ice with just the hope that they come back even? Or they are happy to sacrifice a goal against?

Marleau and Ward have been terrible defensively together all season. Marleau in the middle has only exacerbated the problem. The only time they have looked good on the same line was when they were both on the wing, imo.

My original point was that they are more suited to be our 3rd line. DeBoer needs to help them out a bit and give them some relief. The Thornton & Couture lines can take some of the weight off of them. They're being eaten alive over the last few months (like you noted, slightly better since Nieto joined).

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I've looked, and it shows that my expectations are not out of line with reality. Most top 9 talent are eating those minutes and have positive production. The exception for playoff teams is SJ and ANA. Kesler/Silfverberg/Cogliano are all around a G/60 below, but they also have much higher quality of comp numbers. Not a good indication considering how bad Kesler and the Ducks were to start the season.

Braun and Vlasic do get the benefit of having forwards on the ice to do the scoring for them. However, they still get the worse zone starts on the team and come out positive.

Except you're looking at goal production as a part of your criteria and I'm not. That's the difference. A shutdown line doesn't have to come out on the positive against top competition for it to be successful. It just have to defend well enough to allow the other two lines getting easier minutes to score more. I honestly don't care how much Ward and Marleau score when put in that role. I care how much Thornton and Couture's line score and how much Marleau's line gives up.

 

[Mattb124]

You don't sacrifice a line as a shutdown unit. You send them out there because you believe they can handle it and come back on the positive side.

That isn't the case. It is a very common strategy to put a lower, checking line against the opposition's 1st scoring line. There are players out there who have made careers around centering such a line (e.g. Bolland, Kruger). The strategy isn't that the checking line will out-produce the other team's 1st line, but that it will neutralize the other team's first line. Are we really debating this as a strategy?

The difference with the Sharks is that a) it is our second line that is challenged with shutting down the other team's top line rather than a lower line so we are sacrificing more offense than other teams for it, and b) they haven't been particularly good at it.

 

[DystopianTierney]

That isn't the case. It is a very common strategy to put a lower, checking line against the opposition's 1st scoring line. There are players out there who have made careers around centering such a line (e.g. Bolland, Kruger). The strategy isn't that the checking line will out-produce the other team's 1st line, but that it will neutralize the other team's first line. Are we really debating this as a strategy?

The difference with the Sharks is that a) it is our second line that is challenged with shutting down the other team's top line rather than a lower line so we are sacrificing more offense than other teams for it, and b) they haven't been particularly good at it.

I should have specified. But yeah, I was referring to top 6 players. Even then, most 3rd liners around the league aren't getting eaten up that bad at even strength. I'm sure the extra minutes aren't helping, but that's also more time to produce.

Obviously guys like Paul Gaustad aren't going to win the production battle.

Point still stands. All it takes is a look around the league to see how much they have struggled in that role.

Team is rolling full steam, though. I guess throw them in the fire!