Confirmed Signing with Link: [FLA] D Gustav Forsling signs extension with the Panthers (8 years, $5.75M AAV)

[Lundell4Prez]

One of the best stick checking defenseman in the league

 

[biturbo19]

Not being the biggest Dman does not equate to your conclusions.

He takes the absolute hardest assignments 5v5 and on the PK, and is our #1 Dman, there is nothing he doesn't do well, and he is tough as nails for a smaller guy.

I'm not saying he's "soft" or doesn't give a gritty effort in spite of his size deficit. But he's just simply...smaller than other top defencemen who do what he does. That equates to a measure of liability at the fringes. I think this contract reflects that.

That's all. No need to take it like some personal affront or anything. It's just an honest assessment of the fact that he is indeed, much smaller than your typical top matchup defenceman and it can show up against certain types of teams and players. As explained in that clip that is supposedly a "big win" for him physically. In which he gets outmuscled and is unable to separate Tage from the puck effectively, despite "bodying him" or whatever.

 

[Chaos2k7]

One of the best stick checking defenseman in the league

His IQ is off the charts, rarely in a bad spot, always in the lanes, quick stick, always makes the smart play.

Real pleasure to watch him work.

Leads to entire league in +/- over the past 3 seasons, not really close either.

If he had any PP time at all, he would be more recognized, but there is literally nothing he doesnt excel at.

 

[Chaos2k7]

I'm not saying he's "soft" or doesn't give a gritty effort in spite of his size deficit. But he's just simply...smaller than other top defencemen who do what he does. That equates to a measure of liability at the fringes. I think this contract reflects that.

That's all. No need to take it like some personal affront or anything. It's just an honest assessment of the fact that he is indeed, much smaller than your typical top matchup defenceman and it can show up against certain types of teams and players. As explained in that clip that is supposedly a "big win" for him physically. In which he gets outmuscled and is unable to separate Tage from the puck effectively, despite "bodying him" or whatever.

I have never seen him flustered or gun shy making bad decisions because of physical forecheckers/play.

Clears the front of the net, hard in the corners, blocks shots, he does it all.

 

[biturbo19]

I have never seen him flustered or gun shy making bad decisions because of physical forecheckers/play.

I'm not really sure how that's possible. I'd suggest you're missing things.

As i said, just as a clear recent example...he looked noticeably scrambled and unlike his usual self for much of that Boston series. Making really uncharacteristic timid decisions all over. Before gathering himself back together after the Bruins wore out and they moved on.

If you didn't see it, i'd suggest you weren't watching with a very critical eye.

 

[Chaos2k7]

I'm not really sure how that's possible. I'd suggest you're missing things.

As i said, just as a clear recent example...he looked noticeably scrambled and unlike his usual self for much of that Boston series. Making really uncharacteristic timid decisions all over. Before gathering himself back together after the Bruins wore out and they moved on.

If you didn't see it, i'd suggest you weren't watching with a very critical eye.

I have watched every game of his career with the Panthers. 300+ games. I don't think a 3 or 4 game stretch in a playoff series we won against an excellent, heavy Bruins team in which he more than held his own is the hill you want to die on, but you do you.

 

[biturbo19]

I have watched every game of his career with the Panthers. 300+ games. I don't think a 3 or 4 game stretch in a playoff series we won against an excellent, heavy Bruins team in which he more than held his own is the hill you want to die on, but you do you.

I'm not "dying on a hill" over this. I'm just suggesting...that kind of thing is probably exactly why this contract is only $5.75M AAV for a player who would otherwise likely command more. I'm not saying he sucks by any stretch of the imagination. He's just...not a perfect top pairing matchup defenceman either. He's got an achilles heel that certain teams are going to notice and go after.

People get so unnecessarily defensive over actual minor criticism of "their guy" sometimes. It's too much. Not all of your team's players are absolutely flawless. My favourite team's players are also hardly all flawless. I don't get what's so difficult about accepting that.

 

[Chaos2k7]

I'm not "dying on a hill" over this. I'm just suggesting...that kind of thing is probably exactly why this contract is only $5.75M AAV for a player who would otherwise likely command more. I'm not saying he sucks by any stretch of the imagination. He's just...not a perfect top pairing matchup defenceman either. He's got an achilles heel that certain teams are going to notice and go after.

People get so unnecessarily defensive over actual minor criticism of "their guy" sometimes. It's too much. Not all of your team's players are absolutely flawless. My favourite team's players are also hardly all flawless. I don't get what's so difficult about accepting that.

I don't agree with your opinion. It happens.

We will be more than tickled pink to keep our flawed Forsling long term.

 

[vippe]

That's a really good deal for the Panthers, Forsling definitely took a bit of paycut for term.

And what the heck is this guy arguing about lol, it's very weird.

 

[biturbo19]

I don't agree with your opinion. It happens.

We will be more than tickled pink to keep our flawed Forsling long term.

As i would be. I'd love to still have him on the Canucks at $5.75M long-term, if history had played out very differently.

That's not the same as voicing a constructive, critical evaluation of a player and a potential weakness they may have, which keeps them from being a $7M player instead.

I'm thrilled to have Elias Pettersson locked up at $11.6M long-term...but i can still readily admit that he can be totally mercurial and take games or even stretches of games off, where the intensity completely wanes.

A lot of people just seem allergic to actual critique of a player, in favour of blind "this player is perfect and i've watched every single game ever" homerism.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

"Weird?" OK. Yes - income tax is surely a bigger impact than property taxes for someone with that much income, but it's another factor that needs to be considered when calculating the total tax burden. States with no income tax have to generate revenues in other ways -- typically through high property taxes. Places like Alaska (oil) and Nevada (casinos) are the exception. The rest of the difference is made up with a lack of public services. The property taxes become a bigger factor if the player continues to live in the state permanently - or at least long term - after the contract expires. For example, if you buy a $5M house now, a quick review of Zillow suggests that the property taxes are probably around $88k/year in Florida vs. $40k/year in CA. In 8 years, that would be a difference of about $384k if the taxes stay the same - which isn't that much, relative to the contract. However, the taxes and the assessment don't stay the same. In CA, your property taxes can't increase by more than 2% per year. I don't believe that's true in Florida. So, if you wind up staying there for 20 years, the difference in taxes can become huge. Anyway - just another factor to take into account. Feel free to ignore.

In the scenario you propose -- and I won't even contest your numbers -- it would take Gustav Forsling 118 years of property tax assessments to catch up with what he's going to lose in eight years of California income tax.

And yes, we have a cap on how much residential property tax can increase in a given year. Also, given our local budget surplus vs *ahem* your local deficit, he's also much less likely to have additional assessments dumped on him in the next few years.

I'm not trying to be combative here or anything, merely pointing out that when you're in this kind of income bracket, the income tax does matter a lot more than other kinds of assessments.

 

[Chaos2k7]

As i would be. I'd love to still have him on the Canucks at $5.75M long-term, if history had played out very differently.

That's not the same as voicing a constructive, critical evaluation of a player and a potential weakness they may have, which keeps them from being a $7M player instead.

I'm thrilled to have Elias Pettersson locked up at $11.6M long-term...but i can still readily admit that he can be totally mercurial and take games or even stretches of games off, where the intensity completely wanes.

A lot of people just seem allergic to actual critique of a player, in favour of blind "this player is perfect and i've watched every single game ever" homerism.

As a UFA this offseason he would have gotten 8-9 per year pretty easily IMO.

Every metric shows he's elite in almost every situation. Is he perfect, of course not, and claiming that extreme doesn't really change how misinformed you are about his play since he came to Florida.

 

[Ghost of Murph]

Truly a great deal for FLA. I thought he would get more.

 

[biturbo19]

As a UFA this offseason he would have gotten 8-9 per year pretty easily IMO.

Every metric shows he's elite in almost every situation. Is he perfect, of course not, and claiming that extreme doesn't really change how misinformed you are about his play since he came to Florida.

Okay. So he took $5.75M instead of $8-9M in your estimation, despite being elite in almost every metric because...why exactly? He just felt like it? Florida has that massive a tax advantage? He's just a real good guy looking out for the Panthers best interests over his own on top of being elite in almost every situation per the metrics?


It's just such a deeply uncritical state of dissonance to me, to believe so fervently that he's an $8-9M player elite in nearly every situation by every "metric"...who signed at just $5.75M instead. Yet not really have any apparent curiosity or openness to potential explanations or critiques that might explain some of that very wide gulf.

You say i'm misinformed about his play since he came to Florida, as though fans of other teams aren't allowed to watch Panthers games or something. Maybe you don't watch other team's games, but a lot of fans, including myself...do watch a lot of other team's games. In fact...it can even be really helpful in forming better grounded opinions on all sorts of players around the league, with more critical context. Including a more honest assessment of where your own favourite team's players actually stand within that.

 

[vanarchy]

This guy is such a beauty

 

[Chaos2k7]

Okay. So he took $5.75M instead of $8-9M in your estimation, despite being elite in almost every metric because...why exactly? He just felt like it? Florida has that massive a tax advantage? He's just a real good guy looking out for the Panthers best interests over his own on top of being elite in almost every situation per the metrics?


It's just such a deeply uncritical state of dissonance to me, to believe so fervently that he's an $8-9M player elite in nearly every situation by every "metric"...who signed at just $5.75M instead. Yet not really have any apparent curiosity or openness to potential explanations or critiques that might explain some of that very wide gulf.

You say i'm misinformed about his play since he came to Florida, as though fans of other teams aren't allowed to watch Panthers games or something. Maybe you don't watch other team's games, but a lot of fans, including myself...do watch a lot of other team's games. In fact...it can even be really helpful in forming better grounded opinions on all sorts of players around the league, with more critical context. Including a more honest assessment of where your own favourite team's players actually stand within that.

The 6 years of NMC and almost full salary in July 1st bonuses yearly, tax benefits, loyalty to the team that finally gave him a chance, home town discount. All of those to some degree play a part. He has bounced around early in his career and has put down roots.

Every one of our stars have left money on the table. Barky, Chucky, Gus, come back when Reinhart signs under market value and you can educate me then.

Some guys play only for the money. We have something special going on here.

Also you keep bringing up how I mentioned his elite metrics, yes, he has elite metrics, show me some that match your eye test, because they won't.

 

[Ratsreign]

Was listening to Bill Zito in the Got yer back podcast and he was quite candid about his advantages.
They built their practice facility in a place where most of the players drive golf carts there.

It seems to be gaining momentum if anything. These tax free destination Cities where hey it's just better to live in when you're a millionaire.

I have a hard time understanding why anyone can't understand what an impactful advantage these teams have. Effective 10% cap increase, and the ENTIRE player pool to draw from. Look at the results for the last few years. It's not a coincidence that these Sunny tax free destination teams do so well. Their rebuilds are much quicker as well.

It’s not at all an “impactful advantage” if the team/organization is a joke show.
See the Panthers before Viola purchased the team

 

[Vilam]

Best contract in the NHL.

 

[johan f]

I'm not "dying on a hill" over this. I'm just suggesting...that kind of thing is probably exactly why this contract is only $5.75M AAV for a player who would otherwise likely command more. I'm not saying he sucks by any stretch of the imagination. He's just...not a perfect top pairing matchup defenceman either. He's got an achilles heel that certain teams are going to notice and go after.

People get so unnecessarily defensive over actual minor criticism of "their guy" sometimes. It's too much. Not all of your team's players are absolutely flawless. My favourite team's players are also hardly all flawless. I don't get what's so difficult about accepting that.

I think the lesser taxes played a part. But otherwise it is odd to hold it against him, not earning 7 mil.

 

[aqsw]

Great signing. Always loved his play. Can't believe the teams that gave up on him.

 

[biturbo19]

The 6 years of NMC and almost full salary in July 1st bonuses yearly, tax benefits, loyalty to the team that finally gave him a chance, home town discount. All of those to some degree play a part. He has bounced around early in his career and has put down roots.

Every one of our stars have left money on the table. Barky, Chucky, Gus, come back when Reinhart signs under market value and you can educate me then.

Some guys play only for the money. We have something special going on here.

Also you keep bringing up how I mentioned his elite metrics, yes, he has elite metrics, show me some that match your eye test, because they won't.

Again, you seem to be under the impression that i think Forsling is a scrub or something. It's quite the opposite. I think he's an extremely good transition defenceman. He's absolutely terrific with his stick, his puck movement is top notch, and he understands how to keep himself from getting bogged down in the muck the vast majority of the time. I'd be thrilled to have him on my team at this price.

I'm just suggesting something observable from my "eye test" that helps to explain the $3M per year chasm between what you think he's worth, and what he actually signed for. Something that goes beyond just, "he took a huge hometown discount" because Florida's got "something special going on".

I think the lesser taxes played a part. But otherwise it is odd to hold it against him, not earning 7 mil.

I'm not "holding it against him". I'm just pointing out explanations and reasoning for why he may have taken less than most people expected. Significantly less than some people expected or feel he's worth.

I don't understand why you think it's so antagonistic to simply point out an observation about his game that might be entirely relevant to his ultimate "contract value". As though it's impossible in your mind to criticize some aspect of a player, without thinking that player is absolutely useless garbage overall. It's an absurd black and white way of looking at things, when there's often far more grey area than that. Most players simply are not, "Flawless, perfect, immune to all criticism" or "Absolute trash, useless, zero redeeming qualities". Most NHLers fall somewhere in the enormous scale between those two extremes.

 

[Pukboy5kroner]

I'm not saying he's "soft" or doesn't give a gritty effort in spite of his size deficit. But he's just simply...smaller than other top defencemen who do what he does. That equates to a measure of liability at the fringes. I think this contract reflects that.

That's all. No need to take it like some personal affront or anything. It's just an honest assessment of the fact that he is indeed, much smaller than your typical top matchup defenceman and it can show up against certain types of teams and players. As explained in that clip that is supposedly a "big win" for him physically. In which he gets outmuscled and is unable to separate Tage from the puck effectively, despite "bodying him" or whatever.

He's a bit faster than those unnamed d-men. And covering for Ekblad is a plus with the Cats. Regarding his contract, 40+ million dollars is great for a guy who has been cut by other teams. I'm expecting a similar reaction when Montour signs a discount contract.

 

[danktopshelf]

In the scenario you propose -- and I won't even contest your numbers -- it would take Gustav Forsling 118 years of property tax assessments to catch up with what he's going to lose in eight years of California income tax.

And yes, we have a cap on how much residential property tax can increase in a given year. Also, given our local budget surplus vs *ahem* your local deficit, he's also much less likely to have additional assessments dumped on him in the next few years.

I'm not trying to be combative here or anything, merely pointing out that when you're in this kind of income bracket, the income tax does matter a lot more than other kinds of assessments.

Florida also about to eliminate property tax.

‘It’s time’: Lawmakers look at abolishing property taxes in Florida

If adopted, the policy would make Florida the first in the nation without a state income or property tax.

floridapolitics.com

Everyone who doesn't live in Florida, especially South Florida is a poverty stricken jabroni

 

[Dread Clawz]

That's really fair value for Forsling. I was really curious how his contract was going to look...because he's a darn good Top-4 Defenceman, but he does still have some real shortcomings when it comes to play strength and size. He can still be targeted with a physical forecheck and by asking him to defend down low and around the net. Especially in a playoff series where that can become a major directive to finish every check on the guy and make his life miserable.

But he's such a slick puck mover, it's easily a trade-off most teams would make. I think this price reflects that fairly accurately. It's big money, but not bigly huge "top pairing" sort of money these days.

Forsling also neutralizes a lot of plays in the neutral zone and early in the defensive zone with his stick and smarts.

 

[biturbo19]

Forsling also neutralizes a lot of plays in the neutral zone and early in the defensive zone with his stick and smarts.

Yeah. He's an absolutely terrific transition defender in general. He's very smart, mobile, great stick with very deceptive reach, and really understands how to mitigate his size disadvantage to be highly effective...combined with that quick strike puck moving ability. The "metrics" and the "eye test" all confirm that.

The vast majority of the time, he's extremely savvy in understanding how to keep himself out of the mucky situations where he's going to be at a physical disadvantage. Pressures with positioning, good gaps, effective stickwork, and quickness. Plays a really proactive game. It's just the rare instances where i think he can be knocked off that proactive posture a bit by guys going right at him, that probably keep him from being a much more expensive player...in line with what people were maybe expecting, based on his analytics and metrics and overall effectiveness the majority of the time.