Where I agree with you is that you don't "blow it up" when you still have productive "Elite" players. The "Elite" players are the core of your team and until they decline you are in a Cup window. And, as obvious as this should be; the goal is to win the Cup, not to accumulate an Elite prospect pool.
Where I disagree is the comment that "If you sell now to rebuild, you're never going to get the Schwartz, Schenn, Perron, Bozak, JBo, Thomas type cast under a cap ceiling again with those 4 elite talents".
Chicago did exactly that less than 10 years ago(between 2010 to 2012 they turned over a massive chunk of their supporting cast). The trick to it is that you have to keep drafting well while you're in that Cup window with your "Elite players". There has to be a steady stream of talent coming from the minors to replace the guys who price themselves off the team. Admittedly, Chicago's turnover between 2010 and 2012 wasn't exactly voluntary; but they are proof that it can be done.
Now, having said that, I'm not completely convinced that the Blues are in a prime spot to do that. I like Kyrou, Kostin and Alexandrov well enough, but I don't know that any of them are enough to adequately replace Schwartz, Perron and Bozak as the high end of our support crew(although adding a few more 1st round picks over the next few years might change my mind on that). Given that I think we have a very limited Cup window, I try to give this crew as many chances as possible before the wheels fall off. When it becomes obvious that ROR, Petro and Parayko are slowing down; that's when you start selling pieces to rebuild the "core". But you base that decision on how the core is doing, not on how the supporting cast looks.
Chicago never had to deal with 3 years of projected flat cap, limiting the opportunity to add complimentary pieces around their core during Kane, Toews and Keith's primes. This team's contract structures were designed to remain workable under a rising cap of 2-3m every year for their term. A flat cap taking 6-9m off that makes the Schenn, Faulk, Scandella contracts disgusting to work around for extending guys like Schwartz, Thomas, Kyrou etc as we move forward.
This is why I say you're not replacing our complimentary pieces if you blow it up - our core will be past their prime and locked in on overpayments after the cap starts rising again in 4 years time. We don't have the pipeline of prospects coming in to shore up the lineup - any major improvements are going to be Free Agents or trade acquisitions.
I didn't like the Schenn extension when it was signed, because I don't think he's going to be a valued complimentary piece on our roster by the time his full NTC expires after the 2024-25 season. He's going to be the new Steen - beloved bottom 6er, resented for his contract.
We're on the same page in that I concur, you don't make roster building decisions around the high end support cast - you've got to look at the core and make the decision to blow it up based on that.
Petro (4ish years as undisputed #1-3 dman, 4ish years in the 3-5 range?). Not going to resign for much under 8 AAV. You ship him out, this team loses alot of steam, because it's ability to ice 2 very capable d pairings for 40+ mins a game takes a huge hit.
Tarasenko. Giant question mark. Does he come back able to produce 25/25+ a season consistently after a 3rd shoulder surgery? 25/25 isn't enough without improvements from our other wingers as Perron won't be a near PPG player for the next 3-4 seasons. I can't pencil Tarasenko in for 30G 40A, which was his standard for years. Which means upgrades on the 2 LW slots from Schwartz and Sanford.
Parayko I think rebounds next year. I don't feel his performance in the bubble at 27 is a sign of slowing down. That's underperforming due to something undisclosed (injury? Covid?).
ROR at 29 has been nothing but exemplary for us. We ride his contract out and that's when my worries begin, when he's going UFA in 3 more seasons.
That's when I see our window creeping shut, after the 2022-23 season - unless we lose our key defensive cog in Petro now. This team doesn't have the horses to play run and gun, it's built to cycle, possess and grind - you're not doing that without 2 elite dmen. Even if Kyrou replaces Tarasenko's production (which I don't expect remotely) I don't see us as having the firepower to overcome a Petro departure unless Perunovich is another Makar/Hughes type in his rookie season and moving forward.
We don't have the assets to buy an extended window via trade like Chicago did as I see it. Either we sign Petro and continue with the DA plan, or we fade away into the pretender status most of the league views us as already.
Alexandrov might be that great 3C we need to move Thomas up into the top 6 permanently as 2C, push Schenn over to the LW and run
Schwartz-ROR-Perron
Schenn-Thomas-Tarasenko/Kyrou
Sanford-Alexandrov-Sunny
Blais-DLR-Barbashev
Where the entire 4th line is replaceable as players want raises in 2021/2022 etc. But I just don't see management being at the rebuild stage. They're going to find a way to sign Petro because letting him walk cuts this team's legs out from under them for the rest of the core's window.
Or they might as well start selling everything now and build around Thomas and Kyrou (who I don't see as being that winger you embrace as a core piece).
