Speculation: Five Steps to a Successful Off-Season

[execwrite1]

A radical proposal - rebuild.

Last year's team battled its way to a Stanley Cup with determination and magic. But the talent wasn't overwhelming and didn't have a long-term trajectory.

The magic is gone and the ship has sprung some enormous permanent leaks.

There's no point in tying up anyone with long-term expensive contracts because the Blues need a major overhaul that's going to take at least three years.

Sadly, that means letting Petro walk with no returns for the Blues. The goaltending is actually a mess and needs to have one of the kids in the pipeline (maybe Hofer) emerge as a number one in a year or two.

I would trade anyone with value now for future draft picks and take my lumps for the next couple of years.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

How physical was Kane?

I never said Kane disappears when the games get physical. He demonstrably doesn’t. If we can swing a trade for Kane, I’m in support of that.

Gaudreau just looks shy to me when the contact picks up. If he hasn’t changed that tendency by this point of his career I don’t see it ever changing. He can put up numbers during the season, but he’s not a guy I’d want to count on for scoring in the post-season.

 

[DatDude44]

Keep AP @8.5-9
keep Dunn @ 2-2.5 m
Trade Bozak(maybe throw in a middle pick to offload)
Trade Allen for a 2nd (he played his way into positive value)
Trade Gunnar for a 4th or 5th. (extra 1.75 mill, love him, but he's not getting any younger or healthier, his game seems to have fallen off and i believe mikkola or perunovich should compete for that 6/7 spot.

and that alone should allow us enough space to sign a cheap goalie(if need be) or go with husso and have 13-7-2 and leaves about 1.2m in space give or take.

 

[Stealth JD]

I would trade anyone with value now for future draft picks and take my lumps for the next couple of years.

Yikes. You deal Allen & Steen and you can re-sign Pietrangelo and keep this team a contender through ROR's contract. You just signed Schenn & Faulk...you can't decided to gut the roster now because #91, who missed all of last season, might miss more time next year. 25 teams in the league would take the Blues situation over their own; you don't just willingly throw in the towel because of a bit of adversity and uncertainty.

 

[mk80]

Keep AP @8.5-9
keep Dunn @ 2-2.5 m
Trade Bozak(maybe throw in a middle pick to offload)
Trade Allen for a 2nd (he played his way into positive value)
Trade Gunnar for a 4th or 5th. (extra 1.75 mill, love him, but he's not getting any younger or healthier, his game seems to have fallen off and i believe mikkola or perunovich should compete for that 6/7 spot.

and that alone should allow us enough space to sign a cheap goalie(if need be) or go with husso and have 13-7-2 and leaves about 1.2m in space give or take.

I like this plan. At most we just have to change a couple tires and keep on rolling next season.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Rebuilds should always be a last resort given how many things have to go right in order for them to work at all, let alone in a timeframe of less than 5 years.

 

[67Blues]

Rebuilds should always be a last resort given how many things have to go right in order for them to work at all, let alone in a timeframe of less than 5 years.

Indeed. Our cupboard is bare on prospects. It will take 3-4 years of absolute suckage to even start to assemble a core that comes together (maybe) 3-4 years after that. I wouldn't cherish becoming the next Buffalo and wallow around aimlessly for a decade.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Indeed. Our cupboard is bare on prospects. It will take 3-4 years of absolute suckage to even start to assemble a core that comes together (maybe) 3-4 years after that. I wouldn't cherish becoming the next Buffalo and wallow around aimlessly for a decade.

Buffalo isn't even a notable exemption.

Edmonton has made the playoffs once since they started a rebuild back in 2009. Carolina looks to finally be a playoff contender, but they started their rebuild back in 2010 and required a franchise centerman out of the 2nd round in order to do it. I can't even pinpoint when Florida started their rebuild, but they have made the playoffs twice since 2006 and have drafted in the top-10 seven times, with four of those picks being in the top-3. The aforementioned Buffalo started their rebuild in 2013 and haven't come any closer to coming out of it since 2015. The Arizona Coyotes look like they will have to restart everything despite their rebuild starting in 2014. Although fair-is-fair, they probably wouldn't consider the years after 2017 as "rebuilding" years (which makes their situation even sadder.)

Yes, teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago became juggernauts thanks to their respective rebuilds. But it's becoming more evident that the rebuild requires more than just loading up with top prospects after shipping all the value the team has. I love scouting and would love to snag any of the prospective top-10 picks in the 2022 draft. But adding a Brad Lambert or Shane Wright to a skeleton of a team might take a decade before the Blues could be in the same position they're in right now.

 

[Blueston]

Buffalo isn't even a notable exemption.

Edmonton has made the playoffs once since they started a rebuild back in 2009. Carolina looks to finally be a playoff contender, but they started their rebuild back in 2010 and required a franchise centerman out of the 2nd round in order to do it. I can't even pinpoint when Florida started their rebuild, but they have made the playoffs twice since 2006 and have drafted in the top-10 seven times, with four of those picks being in the top-3. The aforementioned Buffalo started their rebuild in 2013 and haven't come any closer to coming out of it since 2015. The Arizona Coyotes look like they will have to restart everything despite their rebuild starting in 2014. Although fair-is-fair, they probably wouldn't consider the years after 2017 as "rebuilding" years (which makes their situation even sadder.)

Yes, teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago became juggernauts thanks to their respective rebuilds. But it's becoming more evident that the rebuild requires more than just loading up with top prospects after shipping all the value the team has. I love scouting and would love to snag any of the prospective top-10 picks in the 2022 draft. But adding a Brad Lambert or Shane Wright to a skeleton of a team might take a decade before the Blues could be in the same position they're in right now.

Yeah. With or without Petro, blowing it up makes no sense.

 

[Celtic Note]

Apologies if I'm misunderstanding anything here but Taylor Hall is coming off a 7 year, $6AAV deal. Given Gaudreau only has a $6.75 hit, there is virtually no way Hall comes cheaper than Gaudreau in terms of dollars particularly given that he will be -at worst- the second best FA available and best UFA forward. Given the money and term Hall will likely be looking for, I don't see it making more sense to sign Hall than trade for someone (Gaudreau in this example).

You are probably correct about the money. But, Gaudreau will cost high end assets. Hall will not. And, honestly, I would have to believe that Hall is a much better fit for the Blues both as a playoff performer and as player that would mesh with our style of play.

 

[The Note]

You are probably correct about the money. But, Gaudreau will cost high end assets. Hall will not. And, honestly, I would have to believe that Hall is a much better fit for the Blues both as a playoff performer and as player that would mesh with our style of play.

I would have a hard time committing the much money and term to a 28 year old player who excels thanks to their skating. I think Hall would be a great add, but not at what he’ll realistically be asking for.

 

[Celtic Note]

I would have a hard time committing the much money and term to a 28 year old player who excels thanks to their skating. I think Hall would be a great add, but not at what he’ll realistically be asking for.

He may not be, but I would still take him and any down swing over Gaudreau

 

[JoshFromMO]

I think Hall has stated that he wants to win above anything now so there may be a small chance he'd take a cut of his worth to play on a contender

 

[Alklha]

I think Hall has stated that he wants to win above anything now so there may be a small chance he'd take a cut of his worth to play on a contender

He has also talked about the importance of term, so he'll be looking for seven years.

I have no doubt that he'll take less money to be on a contender, but that's obviously relative to what he's been/going to be offered by less competitive teams.

If we extend Pietrangelo then even adding someone like Toffoli would be difficult, so Hall would be a non-starter when he's going to be in the $8m range.

 

[TheGoldenGod]

 

[execwrite1]

Buffalo isn't even a notable exemption.



Yes, teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago became juggernauts thanks to their respective rebuilds. But it's becoming more evident that the rebuild requires more than just loading up with top prospects after shipping all the value the team has. I love scouting and would love to snag any of the prospective top-10 picks in the 2022 draft. But adding a Brad Lambert or Shane Wright to a skeleton of a team might take a decade before the Blues could be in the same position they're in right now.

It won't take a decade to get back on the right track with younger players. Buffalo and Edmonton are poorly run franchises.

Good drafting along with prudent payroll management and a free agent or two could get this back on track in five seasons. But it's gonna take a while.

A hard look at where the Blues are now is not promising.

 

[Stlblue50]

Are people really over reacting to a loss in this stupid summer tournament?

This team was 1st in the west and 2nd in the league after 90% of the season played and a short offseason. They did that without Tarasenko. I do think they need to add someone who can net 20+ since Tank is a question mark going forward.

They should only re-sign Petro if his demands aren’t much above 7M. If not then use the extra cash for the best dman available.....or Hall does sound good. How old is he now?

I never thought I’d say this but I’m a little afraid to trade Allen. I still have faith in Binner but he’s shown that he still has some things to work out. Throwing in Husso is a little scary

 

[Thallis]

Are people really over reacting to a loss in this stupid summer tournament?

This team was 1st in the west and 2nd in the league after 90% of the season played and a short offseason. They did that without Tarasenko. I do think they need to add someone who can net 20+ since Tank is a question mark going forward.

They should only re-sign Petro if his demands aren’t much above 7M. If not then use the extra cash for the best dman available.....or Hall does sound good. How old is he now?

I never thought I’d say this but I’m a little afraid to trade Allen. I still have faith in Binner but he’s shown that he still has some things to work out. Throwing in Husso is a little scary

I don't think you understand the cost of players in the modern NHL. 7M for an elite defenseman is insulting

 

[DatDude44]

I like this plan. At most we just have to change a couple tires and keep on rolling next season.

Thank ya, and hopefully if all goes right faulk ends up in seattle, steens 5.8 comes off the books and we have plenty of space to resign schwartz, thomas and binnington........ and 2/3 of perunovich, dunn,mikkola etc.. are another year older and most likely staples in our lineup with petro,parayko, scandella, bortuzzo.

 

[Brockon]

You are probably correct about the money. But, Gaudreau will cost high end assets. Hall will not. And, honestly, I would have to believe that Hall is a much better fit for the Blues both as a playoff performer and as player that would mesh with our style of play.

I don't think Hall is the answer for us. Ignoring the cap ramifications - everyone seems to believe that Hall is a goal scorer who will address our middling league goal scoring numbers.

Hall has scored over 30 goals once in his 11 seasons in the league. Including that 39 goal career season in New Jersey, he's scored over 22 goals 4 times. He's not a sniper, he's another playmaker.

Of more importance to me, he's played 98/232 games over the past 3 seasons. He's played over 65 NHL games 4 seasons in his career and over 53 NHL games 6/11 times...

He turns 29 in November - wants term and has yet to be paid at a high rate... That's a firm no in my books.

 

[BlueDream]

It won't take a decade to get back on the right track with younger players. Buffalo and Edmonton are poorly run franchises.

Good drafting along with prudent payroll management and a free agent or two could get this back on track in five seasons. But it's gonna take a while.

A hard look at where the Blues are now is not promising.

Not promising? We are the defending champs and a very good team that is basically guaranteed to keep making the playoffs. We also draft very well.

A rebuild isn’t happening. Armstrong didn’t trade for ROR, Schenn, Faulk, Scandella, etc and extend a few of those guys just to tell them “hey actually we are going to tank now”. That’s not even an option.

 

[Stlblue50]

I don't think you understand the cost of players in the modern NHL. 7M for an elite defenseman is insulting

I don’t think you understand. With the cap not going up like it was supposed to pre covid, 7M is worth more than it used to. If he wants 6-8 years then 7-8M is very reasonable for a very solid top pair dman, not elite. If he’s willing to do less years then I’d be ok offering more.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

It won't take a decade to get back on the right track with younger players. Buffalo and Edmonton are poorly run franchises.

Good drafting along with prudent payroll management and a free agent or two could get this back on track in five seasons. But it's gonna take a while.

A hard look at where the Blues are now is not promising.

The bolded highlights the inherent problem. The Blues wouldn't be in a position where one or two of the areas you propose would have to work. If the Blues strip it down, everything, and more, would have to go right in order to be competitive in 5 years.

Look at teams like Minnesota. That team had a "successful" rebuild that got them into the playoffs consistently thank to good drafts and good player acquisitions. They haven't found much playoff success because the players they acquired weren't good enough despite being good players. A team like the Flames are dangerously close to re-evaluating their situation despite finding consistent regular season success and developing solid NHL players. They tried for a shorter-term rebuild and now they might have to throwout a lot of what they've built (if the Gaudreau rumors are to be believed) because what they built hasn't been successful against the league. You can even use the Blues prior to 2017. A good team every year that only made it out of the 2nd round once during that timeframe. And immediately after it happened, they had to retool.

Rebuilds are always an inevitability for a team. The Blues will have to go through another one sometime in the future. But they are a last resort for a reason. The goal of all rebuilds is to be in the position the Blues are currently in. No, they are not vastly superior to every other team in the league. They are not a team that can steamroll every other team in their path while not breaking a sweat. But that's a level of near perfection that's arguably been achieved a handful of times in the last 30 years. The Blues will have to work their asses off to win another title. But so will the team that wishes to beat the Blues.

 

[Celtic Note]

I don't think Hall is the answer for us. Ignoring the cap ramifications - everyone seems to believe that Hall is a goal scorer who will address our middling league goal scoring numbers.

Hall has scored over 30 goals once in his 11 seasons in the league. Including that 39 goal career season in New Jersey, he's scored over 22 goals 4 times. He's not a sniper, he's another playmaker.

Of more importance to me, he's played 98/232 games over the past 3 seasons. He's played over 65 NHL games 4 seasons in his career and over 53 NHL games 6/11 times...

He turns 29 in November - wants term and has yet to be paid at a high rate... That's a firm no in my books.

Agreed.

I was just looking at it from the Hall vs. G point of view, since that was the discussion I was responding to.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

I don’t think you understand. With the cap not going up like it was supposed to pre covid, 7M is worth more than it used to. If he wants 6-8 years then 7-8M is very reasonable for a very solid top pair dman, not elite. If he’s willing to do less years then I’d be ok offering more.

Petro isn't just a solid top pairing D, he's a #1D, and #1D get contracts with AAV above 10% of the cap. 10% exactly would put Petro at 8.15mil, 11% would put him just under 9mil. I think it's quite reasonable for him to expect a contract somewhere around 11% of cap.