First overall pick

[denkiteki]

My point is that teams are generally more eager to move up than teams are eager to move down. So my opinion is that more often than not teams looking to move up offer a more than fair price while teams considering moving down demand a ransom.

A fair price is actually a price that both side agree on so clearly it wouldn't be a fair price unless there are more trades. The team looking to trade up might think its "fair" but clearly it wasn't or a trade would've happened. Remember almost every year, teams also often say they are willing to consider trades (even if its just to say it). The price might seem like its a ransom to the seller but it also seems like a fair price for the buyer. Again refer to the NFL to see the crazy prices for draft picks (since moving up/down happens more often in the NFL). It wouldn't be as crazy in the NHL (as i explained before) but its a good comparison.

Umm... how did you come up with his conclusion? Your examples suggest that dropping a few spots cost a late 3rd round pick. Again, I am of the opinion that the standard seems to be that moving up 4 spots = a 2nd round pick.

Again refer to NFL trade value table (i'll link one for reference)

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/

Again not suggesting the value chart directly converts to the NHL but also do note that the idea is the same. The cost between #1 and #2 is higher than #11 to #12, etc.

The cost for dropping multiple spots will cost more than the cost of dropping 1 spot. If #11 to #12 cost a 3rd, then #1 to #2 cost more than that (a lot more) and in a lot of cases, might go as far as a 1st. Of course moving up/down 1 spot doesn't happen all that often since teams will be looking to jump in front of another team for someone.

It does depend on the value. But my point is that the Canucks aren't leaving this draft without say a top 10 pick, which you seem to agree. And let's assume that the offer is 2017 late top 10 pick + 2018 1st. My point is that it is not worth it unless the conditions I stated were fulfilled. The main contention is the player the Canucks expect to get with that late top 10 pick. That player probably projects as a 2nd line or #4 D at best.

I hope its not another D because plain and simple our depth chart has more D than forward prospect. Most of the D seem to be ranked lower this draft (than C... most of the top are dominated by Cs right now... of course the playoffs could completely change this... but it really doesn't change our needs much).

I would agree that yeah i expect a future first to move down and stay within the top 10. That's the type of deal i would be looking for to move down... rather or not another team is willing to pay it is the real question. Also as i stated, not many teams are willing to move future 1st (before the season started) unless they know/think they are likely going to make the playoffs next year (again in these cases, more often than not, these teams will not be in the top 10).

I think that even in a weak draft there are good players to be drafted. I am only talking about the odds. If the Canucks are lucky and have one of the first two picks I think they get a chance to pick a player with real 1st line upside. I can't say the same outside of the top 3-4 prospects in this year's draft.

There are good players and every so often players develop better than expected (reason in a lot of cases without McDavid/Crosby/etc, the best player in the draft actually appears outside the #1 spot).

That said, this year's draft is weaker than recent years and expected to be weaker than next year (tho next year doesn't look like it'll have a McDavid level player, it looks like it'll have quite a few prospects with values similar to Patrick/Nico).

As far as 1st line upside goes, most "scouts" seem to suggest Patrick's upside as more of a 2nd line C (but he's pretty much NHL ready right now). There are a few boom/bust prospects with 1st line upside but at the sametime, they also have a lower probability of reaching their potential.