Rumor: First Myers Rumor that I haven't hated.

[Chainshot]

Among the top 30 ES TOI Defensemen, Myers has the 4th highest QOC and the 12th best GA Per 60

Among the top 60 ES TOI Defensemen, Myers has the 8th highest QOC and the 20th best GA per 60

I just can't imagine trading that player right now...

If anyone need question the thought of this rumor, consider Jame's views on Couterier.

And I agree, Myers right now is not someone they can trade. Build around? Support? Sure. But not interested in them trading him.

 

[JLewyB]

But the GA per 60 are unsustainable, right?

you do realize that's for the whole year?

 

[stokes84]

you do realize that's for the whole year?

His on ice save % for the whole year is .937. Far higher than any defenseman but Zadorov.

 

[Heraldic]

His on ice save % for the whole year is .937. Far higher than any defenseman but Zadorov.

That indicates that when Myers is on the ice opponents are forced to shoot from crappy places/they don't get to shoot many one-timers or screened shots.

 

[stokes84]

That indicates that when Myers is on the ice opponents are forced to shoot from crappy places/they don't get to shoot many one-timers or screened shots.

Well, that would be my thought as well. But the person who posted those stats was mocking that line of thinking this morning.

 

[Zip15]

But the GA per 60 are unsustainable, right?

That indicates that when Myers is on the ice opponents are forced to shoot from crappy places/they don't get to shoot many one-timers or screened shots.

No. That's not what it means. Unless you simply think Tyler Myers is that much better at defense than:

O. Ekman-Larsson (.888)
Alex Pietrangelo (.898)
PK Subban (.905)
Brent Seabrook (.907)
Nik Kronwall (.914)
Ryan McDonagh (.915)
Ryan Suter (.919)

There's some luck in Myers' numbers. He also has the benefit of playing in front of a goaltender who's white-hot at ES right now.

I can't wait for Enroth to come back to Earth so that these bogus shot quality arguments can take their rightful place on the trash heap.

EDIT: FFS, Andrej Meszaros has a .927 on-ice ESSV%, and Andre Benoit is at .920. That's better than every one of the stud defensemen mentioned above (and Meszaros is better than Duncan Keith, too). Does that mean those buffoons are keeping shot quality low?!

 

[Heraldic]

Well, that would be my thought as well. But the person who posted those stats was mocking that line of thinking this morning.

I think that conclusion is pretty solid if the sample size is big enough and the player is playing giant minutes combined with hardest quality.

All that applies to Myers.

 

[joshjull]

No. That's not what it means. Unless you simply think Tyler Myers is that much better at defense than:

O. Ekman-Larsson (.888)
Alex Pietrangelo (.898)
PK Subban (.905)
Brent Seabrook (.907)
Nik Kronwall (.914)
Ryan McDonagh (.915)
Ryan Suter (.919)

There's some luck in Myers' numbers. He also has the benefit of playing in front of a goaltender who's white-hot at ES right now.

Boy you really stay on message don't you. Everyone and everything is luck accept Enroth, who is doing it all by himself apparently.

So if Enorth leaves via trade Myers' numbers will crumble, correct?

 

[Heraldic]

No. That's not what it means. Unless you simply think Tyler Myers is that much better at defense than:

O. Ekman-Larsson (.888)
Alex Pietrangelo (.898)
PK Subban (.905)
Brent Seabrook (.907)
Nik Kronwall (.914)
Ryan McDonagh (.915)
Ryan Suter (.919)

There's some luck in Myers' numbers. He also has the benefit of playing in front of a goaltender who's white-hot at ES right now.

I can't wait for Enroth to come back to Earth so that these bogus shot quality arguments can take their rightful place on the trash heap.

If the sample size is big enough, you don't really operate with the concepts like "luck" or "coincidence".

Of course there are a lot of variables there. Sabres play passive d-zone and they have a hot goalie. This means a lot of shots and saves as well. And there are also many other players as well. Myers plays a lot with Zemgus, who happens to be our best forward defensively.

So the right way to go is to compare the numbers INSIDE the team, because it cleans out a lot of those variables. As you can see, most of our defenders have better percent numbers than the players you brought up. They all are lucky?

 

[Zip15]

Boy you really stay on message don't you. Everyone and everything is luck accept Enroth, who is doing it all by himself apparently.

So if Enorth leaves via trade Myers' numbers will crumble, correct?

If Enroth leaves, Myers' on-ice ESSV% numbers will go down. That will mean more GA at ES. There's a good chance that the same will happen if Enroth stays. But anything is possible in a small sample size.

 

[Eram]

I like Couterier, but with Reinhart & Girgs being more 2-way centers already, would rather go for someone more offensively minded.

 

[Jame]

His on ice save % for the whole year is .937. Far higher than any defenseman but Zadorov.

That indicates that when Myers is on the ice opponents are forced to shoot from crappy places/they don't get to shoot many one-timers or screened shots.

Well, that would be my thought as well. But the person who posted those stats was mocking that line of thinking this morning.

good one.

 

[Heraldic]

I like Couterier, but with Reinhart & Girgs being more 2-way centers already, would rather go for someone more offensively minded.

This. I think the way that Zemgus has developed has made our long-term center situation a lot clearer. Previously I thought that Zemgus most likely will be a really quality third line center, but now I think that he will be a really quality second line center (and by this I mean one of the better in the league) and he has the potential to be a perennial selke-candidate.

I mean, I have tried to keep my hopes and expectations with Girgensons relatively mild, but the way he's developing is really forcing me to chance my approach to him. I mean, a little more than a year ago no-one really wasn't even sure is he going to play in Roch or with the Sabres. Now he's doing an excellent job playing against the super stars center in this league (Stamkos in the first Tampa game and Kopitar in the most recent one).

Then there's Reinhart coming from the pipeline, who is most likely going to be excellent defensively as well.

Not that I wouldn't like to get a center like Couturier, but not with the price it would take (Myers for example).

 

[sabrebuild]

This. I think the way that Zemgus has developed has made our long-term center situation a lot clearer. Previously I thought that Zemgus most likely will be a really quality third line center, but now I think that he will be a really quality second line center (and by this I mean one of the better in the league) and he has the potential to be a perennial selke-candidate.

I mean, I have tried to keep my hopes and expectations with Girgensons relatively mild, but the way he's developing is really forcing me to chance my approach to him. I mean, a little more than a year ago no-one really wasn't even sure is he going to play in Roch or with the Sabres. Now he's doing an excellent job playing against the super stars center in this league (Stamkos in the first Tampa game and Kopitar in the most recent one).

Then there's Reinhart coming from the pipeline, who is most likely going to be excellent defensively as well.

Not that I wouldn't like to get a center like Couturier, but not with the price it would take (Myers for example).

This for the most part. We need Myers now and in the future. We already have a couts if Zemgus continues his superlative play.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I think it is interesting to point out that the goalies playing behind Myers have incredible save%. Doesn't tell me anything just looking over the numbers but an interesting tidbit that is worth more than a blowoff point.

 

[joshjull]

If Enroth leaves, Myers' on-ice ESSV% numbers will go down. That will mean more GA at ES. There's a good chance that the same will happen if Enroth stays. But anything is possible in a small sample size.

They may go down but thats not really my point. I was getting at your almost obsessive need to belittle any positives posters are taking from these recent games. Everything is pure luck and no one is actually playing better than before. Except Enroth who is apparently Hasek reincarnated in your mind.

It never has dawned on you once that there is a certain synergy to how the team is playing and Enroth is having success. Its not happening in vacuum. Now this is where you dive back into your advanced stats rabbit hole and start spewing out all sorts of wonderful numbers. None of which changes what I'm saying. Yes the team is terrible at possession and few posters are arguing otherwise. Its also not going to change until we get better possession players. The Sabres know this. So with that in mind they look to improve things on the ice knowing they will not control possession.

Well they can work on better breakouts and better structure in their end. They can work to reduce the amount of shots in high quality scoring areas. They can work on trying to deny second chance opportunities. They can work on letting their goalies get a good look at the shots they are facing. They can work on blocking more shots so less shots get through even though the volume of shots taken against us doesn't change much. The can come out and make the opposing teams work harder for their scoring chances. We've gotten better in these areas. Not every night but enough that Enroth has commented that things have gotten easier for him. I know I know thats not an advanced stat but it does matter. And at no point did i argue we are good team or a much better possession team. I'm pointing out that within the restrictions that is our team we've been playing much better.

While I agree they are defying the numbers its more about creating their own luck than pulling horseshoes out of their ass. Myers success is as much about his play as it is about Enroth. To argue otherwise seems more like pushing an agenda than actually trying to make a fair minded point. Maybe thats not the right way to put. Maybe a better way is to say it seems like you are having a very hard time recognizing or accepting any positives that others have pointed out.

 

[KennyFnPowers*]

Couturier is AWFUL / TOTAL GARBAGE. He's turned into an absolute BOMB of a high draft pick. He's done nothing and barely progressed at all from his rookie season.

I wouldn't trade SIX! Tyler Myers for 1/2 a Sean Couturier. (not kidding.)

 

[Jame]

if you take the top 60 TOI ES Defensemen 1-60, and then rank them for QOC and GA per 60, and then average those 3 rankings... you get:

Player TOI Rank QOC Rank GA Rank Average
NIKLASHJALMARSSON 18 7 5 10
T.J.BRODIE 8 21 11 13.33333333
MARCSTAAL 9 1 37 15.66666667
DREWDOUGHTY 2 25 22 16.33333333
SHEAWEBER 3 42 4 16.33333333
RYANSUTER 1 34 15 16.66666667
ROMANJOSI 5 44 3 17.33333333
TYLERMYERS 24 10 20 18
MARKGIORDANO 26 12 18 18.66666667
P.K.SUBBAN 13 3 42 19.33333333
JUSTINBRAUN 30 19 12 20.33333333
DENNISSEIDENBERG 12 13 40 21.66666667
ALEXEIYEMELIN 27 31 8 22
JONASBRODIN 6 60 1 22.33333333
JOHNODUYAODUYA 47 8 14 23
FRANCOISBEAUCHEMIN 25 46 2 24.33333333
DANGIRARDI 21 5 49 25
JAREDSPURGEON 22 28 28 26
ZACHBOGOSIAN 53 16 9 26
ANDREIMARKOV 58 4 17 26.33333333
ALEXPIETRANGELO 7 26 48 27
JUSTINFAULK 16 6 59 27
JOHNKLINGBERG 23 43 16 27.33333333
JAKEMUZZIN 15 35 33 27.66666667
WILLIEMITCHELL 39 14 31 28
KEITHYANDLE 10 24 52 28.66666667
ANDYGREENE 46 29 13 29.33333333
ALEXGOLIGOSKI 32 23 34 29.66666667
MATTHEWCARLE 56 27 7 30
ERIKKARLSSON 4 37 51 30.66666667
ANDREJSEKERA 33 2 57 30.66666667
BROOKSORPIK 17 48 29 31.33333333
DAMONSEVERSON 48 36 10 31.33333333
BRIANCAMPBELL 37 32 26 31.66666667
KRISRUSSELL 11 53 32 32
DENNISWIDEMAN 14 49 35 32.66666667
MAREKZIDLICKY 35 20 43 32.66666667
ERIKJOHNSON 34 11 54 33
OLIVEREKMAN-LARSSON 38 17 44 33
CHRISTIANEHRHOFF 44 50 6 33.33333333
DUNCANKEITH 20 54 27 33.66666667
ALEXANDEREDLER 36 41 24 33.66666667
JANHEJDA 41 15 45 33.66666667
BRENDENDILLON 28 39 39 35.33333333
CHRISPHILLIPS 29 56 23 36
JAYBOUWMEESTER 40 51 19 36.66666667
MATTNISKANEN 31 40 41 37.33333333
ANDREWFERENCE 19 52 46 39
DOUGIEHAMILTON 49 33 36 39.33333333
KRISTOPHERLETANG 59 30 30 39.66666667
JOHNCARLSON 45 55 21 40.33333333
ROMANPOLAK 55 18 53 42
BRENTBURNS 42 38 47 42.33333333
JACKJOHNSON 60 9 60 43
MARCOSCANDELLA 50 45 38 44.33333333
MARKSTREIT 52 57 25 44.66666667
TREVORDALEY 57 22 56 45
JEFFPETRY 43 47 55 48.33333333
JUSTINSCHULTZ 54 58 50 54
TRAVISHAMONIC 51 59 58 56


not saying it proves anything, or is conclusive in anything... but I think it's an interesting look at defensive data. and definitely shows that Myers is playing great.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

Lecavalier.... shudder.

Not a fan of that deal.

I feel the same way. I don't care if it's a salary dump and gets us to the cap floor, he is signed until 2018 and we don't need that on our books in any way shape or form.

 

[Tapu Coco]

If enroth's play is throwing off the numbers, and gives meszaros and Benoit a better GA/60 than the players on the list zip gave...wouldn't shots against/60 be more indicative of defensive prowess? From the eye test, it's no secret that Benoit and meszaros relinquish a lot more chances than Myers does, and if enroth is there to stop the majority of them as he's been doing, I think it eliminates the goalie variable a bit.

I'm out of my element talking about advanced stats, so correct me if I'm wrong

 

[jc17]

If enroth's play is throwing off the numbers, and gives meszaros and Benoit a better GA/60 than the players on the list zip gave...wouldn't shots against/60 be more indicative of defensive prowess? From the eye test, it's no secret that Benoit and meszaros relinquish a lot more chances than Myers does, and if enroth is there to stop the majority of them as he's been doing, I think it eliminates the goalie variable a bit.

I'm out of my element talking about advanced stats, so correct me if I'm wrong

But they're trying to prove that quality of shot is important here.

 

[Zip15]

They may go down but thats not really my point. I was getting at your almost obsessive need to belittle any positives posters are taking from these recent games. Everything is pure luck and no one is actually playing better than before. Except Enroth who is apparently Hasek reincarnated in your mind.

First, it's ironic that you accuse me of belittling anyone, then make a post like this. I "spew" and am far down a "rabbit hole," huh? Anyways...

I said "everything" is pure luck? Where? I said Enroth is Hasek reincarnate? Where? He's incredibly hot right now. Is that inaccurate? This stretch of unsustainable play is throwing off the numbers. He's had stretches in the past that aren't far off the one he's on right now. He's making it look a lot easier than it is right now.

It never has dawned on you once that there is a certain synergy to how the team is playing and Enroth is having success. Its not happening in vacuum. Now this is where you dive back into your advanced stats rabbit hole and start spewing out all sorts of wonderful numbers. None of which changes what I'm saying. Yes the team is terrible at possession and few posters are arguing otherwise. Its also not going to change until we get better possession players. The Sabres know this. So with that in mind they look to improve things on the ice knowing they will not control possession.

Well they can work on better breakouts and better structure in their end. They can work to reduce the amount of shots in high quality scoring areas. They can work on trying to deny second chance opportunities. They can work on letting their goalies get a good look at the shots they are facing. They can work on blocking more shots so less shots get through even though the volume of shots taken against us doesn't change much. The can come out and make the opposing teams work harder for their scoring chances. We've gotten better in these areas. Not every night but enough that Enroth has commented that things have gotten easier for him. I know I know thats not an advanced stat but it does matter. And at no point did i argue we are good team or a much better possession team. I'm pointing out that within the restrictions that is our team we've been playing much better.

And my point is none of this can be proven or disproven, or the degree to which it's true. People will say "eye test," but I'm watching the same games and I still see teams with a lot of opportunities. And it's my opinion that a lot of this "we're playing so much better" is off the mark, and is just, at bottom, confirmation bias meant to make people feel better about the future of the team.

I love how my position of "regression to the mean," especially on a goaltender who's at about .950 over the last 10 games, is unreasonable. Or that a players on-ice ESSV% may be a product of more than a little luck and not pure defensive prowess--else you also have to believe Meszaros and Benoit are doing a better job at keeping shot quality down than many of the top defensemen in the league--is an "obsession" or an unreasonable position.

While I agree they are defying the numbers its more about creating their own luck than pulling horseshoes out of their ass. Myers success is as much about his play as it is about Enroth. To argue otherwise seems more like pushing an agenda than actually trying to make a fair minded point. Maybe thats not the right way to put. Maybe a better way is to say it seems like you are having a very hard time recognizing or accepting any positives that others have pointed out.

I see plenty of positives, most notably Girgensons. FMG has been a nice line, too. But I'm not going to sit here and suggest that we can continue doing what we've been doing over the last 10 games and be successful. There are many who are, in fact, suggesting this with variations of the shot quality argument. And when Enroth stops saving 33/34 every night, people will assume our defensive structure isn't as good or we're giving up high-quality chances again, even if that's not that the case.

It's pretty ****ed up that it's suggested that people who "spew" advanced stats are not watching the games or are "watching the games on a spreadsheet," as if all who are using the "eye test" all have a better understanding of what's going on. My position is that this cannot and will not continue over the long term. Yet I'm the unreasonable one.

 

[HP00]

Id hate it

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

It's pretty ****ed up that it's suggested that people who "spew" advanced stats are not watching the games or are "watching the games on a spreadsheet," as if all who are using the "eye test" all have a better understanding of what's going on. My position is that this cannot and will not continue over the long term. Yet I'm the unreasonable one.

I'm not having any argument over it, and I don't cast off advanced stats as junk. I just know in October they were playing un-watchable hockey. In November they eventually started to play watchable hockey. A lot of it has to do with less Ben-Mez and more Risto-Zads. A lot of it has to do with some consistent defensive effort from the FWs (less Stewart and Hodgson, more Mitchell and Flynn). A lot of it has to do with solid play from both goalies. A lot of it has to do with lazy opponents and back-up goalies that haven't given a full effort against Buffalo.

Much of this can change, but the overall better defensive effort from the entire team likely will not. All I think that means is that they won't drop like a rock and run away with 30th place. Translating it into anything else is just picking a fight over what is almost semantics or the tiniest minutiae over why they can get outshot and still stay in games.

 

[Paxon]

Couturier is AWFUL / TOTAL GARBAGE. He's turned into an absolute BOMB of a high draft pick. He's done nothing and barely progressed at all from his rookie season.

I wouldn't trade SIX! Tyler Myers for 1/2 a Sean Couturier. (not kidding.)

In what world is a center who put up 40 points last season while playing top-notch defense "AWFUL / TOTAL GARBAGE"?