Fanbases getting fooled by inflated shooting %s is my favourite trope.

[Jersey Fresh]

Calgary fans when Yegor's metrics look exactly the same but he suddenly starts shooting 20% (surely this is sustainable)View attachment 837939View attachment 837940

The guy is getting double the PP time he's ever gotten before and his shot metrics are still exactly the same. The only difference is everything is going in. I hope this year is enough for Yegor to get the bag after next, though.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Yeah the Panthers will be FINE as a whole. In fact, at least via moneypuck they actually have the 2nd worst Goals above expectation in the league even despite the Reinhart heater. Expected to have 22 more goals than they actually do.

I'm not sure they'll be fine fine, because half their roster is UFA at the end of the season, but Reinhart's production is an individual outlier that isn't inflating the on ice impact.

 

[Machinehead]

He could not beat a goalie with a shot until his 5th season in the league. No I'm not kidding you can go look at all his goals from his first 4 seasons and you won't find a single one that isn't a rebound, deflection, or an open net. His finishing ability now is in a completely different universe than it used to be.

The opposite of Alexis "oops, I scored" Lafreniere

 

[Chaos2k7]

It depends on the player.

Chris Kreider legitimately went from shooting about 11, 12% in the first half of his career to shooting 15% on a bad day.

A guy like Reinhart, who is entering his prime, may have legitimately developed his game to finish better. Granted, he's shooting 25% this year, but like, he's not gonna just be a 60 goal guy now. It's just a career high and there's nothing really of note there. Every player has a standout year or two in either direciton.

That being said, Reinhart is shooting almost 19% as a Panther over 228 games. I could see him settling in at 17% and legitimately being a 40 goal guy for the next few years.

Rhino couldn't buy a goal for the first half of last season, shooting like 4%.

I don't know who is claiming this is his new normal, but it is also the reason why you don't max extend players for one half season or full season of inflated stats.

Rhino has been a PPG guy since coming over from the Sabres. Nothing much has changed despite his scoring surge this year.

 

[dgibb10]

I'm not sure they'll be fine fine, because half their roster is UFA at the end of the season, but Reinhart's production is an individual outlier that isn't inflating the on ice impact.

True. Also you worry about the goaltender play. It's been excellent this year but Stolarz and 36 year old Bob is a combo that can come crashing down quick. Knight in the wings provides some insurance tho

 

[MXD]

Speaking of Reinhart, he's on pace to do something I think only Lemieux and Gretzky ever did : leading the NHL in PPGoals and SHGoals.

Lemieux, Gretzky, Reinhart.

 

[Voight]

What about under inflated?

Cause last year I noticed people saying Matthews was washed (he had a career worst shooting %)

 

[dgibb10]

What about under inflated?

Cause last year I noticed people saying Matthews was washed (he had a career worst shooting %)

Guys with the most goals below shooting talent (expected to improve)

Anders Lee
John Tavares
Matthew tkachuk
JVR
Caufield
Barkov
Gourde
Bertuzzi
Werenski
Miles Wood
Jesper Bratt
Anderson
Debrusk
Mangiapane
Connor Brown
Colton
Lafreniere
Ovi

 

[Guttersniped]

Not sure what this debate is about but I will point out that Adam Henrique has a career SH% of 15.4% after 895 GP.

Yeah Rico!

 

[Chaos2k7]

Speaking of Reinhart, he's on pace to do something I think only Lemieux and Gretzky ever did : leading the NHL in PPGoals and SHGoals.

Lemieux, Gretzky, Reinhart.

Needs a couple more shorties to be sure, has 6 already.

 

[DJJones]

I don't think any Flames fan is fooled by Coleman, we all know its a career year for him. Some of them will argue you on Sharangovich though.

We've had two years of Coleman somehow missing tap ins and being perpetually cursed. This year was just laws of probability rebounding.

Either way hes a great player ignoring goals.

 

[93LEAFS]

Matthews best talent is finding space to get an open shot off in quality areas of the ice. That's what separates him, there are other guys who can shoot as well or better

It's more his ability to disguise his release and get it off while being off platform, as someone who has watched like 95% of his NHL games. Other guys may be as good from a standing spot at the top of the circle, but the release and angles Matthews can shoot from are why he has the best wrist shot in the league.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Happens every year. You hear all about this "this player has broken out" and 90% of the time it's just some guy with a shooting% that's double his career rate.

Some great candidates for this year:

Reinhart
Mantha
Hoglander
Sharangovich
Coyle
Frederic
Coleman
Virtually the entire canucks roster
Fabbri
Dickinson
etc

I don’t think there’s any Wings fans who are fooled by Fabbri. He can go eat rocks somewhere

 

[Chainshot]

Even tage is back down below 10% this year. First thing I check at this point when I hear about a breakout is where the player is on moneypucks "Goals above shooting talent" metric.

Uses career shooting rates to establish a baseline and then looks at this year.

Some guys ranking high:

Hyman (mcdavid effect)
Reinhart
Carcone
Harley
Sharangovich
Marchessault
Weegar
Connor
Mantha
Coleman
Dickinson

Helps to ignore the guys who are just elite shooters their whole career, like an Auston Matthews

At least Tage has the broken wrist injury he came back from too soon to explain regression. It isn’t like he is 100% and slipping.

 

[dgibb10]

At least Tage has the broken wrist injury he came back from too soon to explain regression. It isn’t like he is 100% and slipping.

Wrist injuries do seem to be a big impact on shooting%s unsurprisingly. Matthews had one last year allegedly, Jack Hughes has one this year, low shooting%.

It's an injury you can play through for sure but certainly impacts the shooting

 

[Chainshot]

Wrist injuries do seem to be a big impact on shooting%s unsurprisingly. Matthews had one last year allegedly, Jack Hughes has one this year, low shooting%.

It's an injury you can play through for sure but certainly impacts the shooting

I’ve heard from some media types that it is often a full year before players get comfortable again.

 

[Viqsi]

Outside of homers or people who think math is witchcraft, does anyone actually believe that these guys who shoot 20% will maintain it?

Don't forget those folks who just gave away a guy doing well and are determined to sulk about it. William Karlsson is still a meme on HFCBJ thanks to the number of people who were absolutely unstoppably convinced he was going to keep on being a more consistently accurate shooter than the likes of Mike Bossy and just would not shut up about it.

 

[Backlund]

We've had two years of Coleman somehow missing tap ins and being perpetually cursed. This year was just laws of probability rebounding.

Either way hes a great player ignoring goals.

Every tap in he missed wasn't bad luck or some sort of curse. He just doesn't convert his chances at a rate that would suggest 30 goals is a repeatable standard you should expect from him. He's a good player no doubt but he also isn't a 30 goal guy. 20ish goals and good all around play is what he'll average. He might go higher or lower but that's what anyone reasonable will expect.

 

[DJJones]

Every tap in he missed wasn't bad luck or some sort of curse. He just doesn't convert his chances at a rate that would suggest 30 goals is a repeatable standard you should expect from him. He's a good player no doubt but he also isn't a 30 goal guy. 20ish goals and good all around play is what he'll average. He might go higher or lower but that's what anyone reasonable will expect.

I'd say missing tap ins is very much luck based. It's insane how he didn't score more goals. I'd expect John Scott to score a tap in. Before this year it was a running joke.

Backlund is a king of ruining scoring chances but he still would knock those in. I remember that line had a stretch of simply dominant play, highest expected goals in the league and they just couldn't score.

 

[Bounces R Way]

HFBoard posters actually buying twitter xG snake oil is mine

 

[Nogatco Rd]

"a common or overused theme or device"

Which isn't terrible. Fallacy would imply that it's a false belief necessarily.

The statement “Getting fooled” means that it is in fact a false belief, so I think fallacy fits better

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I understand the concept but I still find it funny how if players shoot a high percentage in the NBA it's celebrated, in the NHL it's villified.

 

[dgibb10]

I'd say missing tap ins is very much luck based. It's insane how he didn't score more goals. I'd expect John Scott to score a tap in. Before this year it was a running joke.

Backlund is a king of ruining scoring chances but he still would knock those in. I remember that line had a stretch of simply dominant play, highest expected goals in the league and they just couldn't score.

Career 10% shooter that shot 8.5% his first 2 years in calgary doesn't seem too out of the ordinary. Career 10% shooting suddenly shooting 17.6% at age 32 does

I understand the concept but I still find it funny how if players shoot a high percentage in the NBA it's celebrated, in the NHL it's villified.

It's a sample size thing.

The average NHL team has 207 goals so far this year. The average NBA team gets that many makes in 4 or 5 games

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

And then there was the one time it was Tage Thompson and wait a minute what the actual f*** he's still doing it

But yeah, most of the time...

Wasn't Tanguay like a career 21% shooter or something ridiculous? E: 18.6? Definitely thought it was much higher to the point of being anomalous. But dear lord did that guy hate to shoot.

I don't know how much stock I take in older shots stats, when video replay was only available on cassette.

 

[ON3M4N]

Happens every year. You hear all about this "this player has broken out" and 90% of the time it's just some guy with a shooting% that's double his career rate.

Some great candidates for this year:

Reinhart
Mantha
Hoglander
Sharangovich
Coyle
Frederic
Coleman
Virtually the entire canucks roster
Fabbri
Dickinson
etc

Frederic is sitting at a 16.7% shooting percentage this year.... he was at 14.2% last year. Not a huge difference.