Fanbases getting fooled by inflated shooting %s is my favourite trope.

[jiboy]

Luck has some role , confidence also. They are often linked , to always try to see the big picture is a very boring way to watch hockey , almost as if you need to kill the joy.

Who cares if a player wont keep on his hot streak forever and has fanbase being too high on him ? Thats the fun of watching sports

 

[Aladyyn]

It depends on the player.

Chris Kreider legitimately went from shooting about 11, 12% in the first half of his career to shooting 15% on a bad day.

A guy like Reinhart, who is entering his prime, may have legitimately developed his game to finish better. Granted, he's shooting 25% this year, but like, he's not gonna just be a 60 goal guy now. It's just a career high and there's nothing really of note there. Every player has a standout year or two in either direciton.

That being said, Reinhart is shooting almost 19% as a Panther over 228 games. I could see him settling in at 17% and legitimately being a 40 goal guy for the next few years.

He could not beat a goalie with a shot until his 5th season in the league. No I'm not kidding you can go look at all his goals from his first 4 seasons and you won't find a single one that isn't a rebound, deflection, or an open net. His finishing ability now is in a completely different universe than it used to be.

 

[HaNotsri]

Even tage is back down below 10% this year. First thing I check at this point when I hear about a breakout is where the player is on moneypucks "Goals above shooting talent" metric.

Uses career shooting rates to establish a baseline and then looks at this year.

Some guys ranking high:

Hyman (mcdavid effect)
Reinhart
Carcone
Harley
Sharangovich
Marchessault
Weegar
Connor
Mantha
Coleman
Dickinson

Helps to ignore the guys who are just elite shooters their whole career, like an Auston Matthews

Tage has been playing with a wrist/hand injury and he hasn't really been able to shoot the same way as before.
I think he will have a hard time hitting the old numbers even when healthy but lately he looks a lot better again.

 

[Juxtaposer]

While I don't think Hyman and Reinhart are the type of scorers that will continue to score like this. They both are shooting from very high-percentage areas. A ton of their goals are net-front on the PP. It's not like when Stamkos or Matthews (who are exceptions to the shooting percentage rules) where they are constantly beating goalies from medium to low percentage areas.

Ahh, the Jordan Eberle argument. My guy definitely will sustain this high shooting percentage he’s never had in his career before because he’s getting higher quality of shots this year!

Obviously guys who have a long history of sustaining high shooting percentages like Matthews/Stamkos/etc. are a different story, but rando decent players coming out of the blue to shoot 18% for a year are always fool’s gold. I shudder to imagine the contract that Reinhart is about to get this summer.

 

[WarriorOfGandhi]

I'm just glad the OP is here to show us the error of our ways

 

[MakeTheGoalsLarger]

What if said players has an inflated shooting percentage because he gets the better part of the high percentage scoring chances of his line, then the following season, a percentage of those chances gets transferred to his linemates, resulting in a deflation of his shooting percentage, yet his point production stays the same?

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

And then there is the odd guy who breaks out and then more or less maintains it.

Drai scored 50 in 2018 and had a s% of 21.6, prime regression candidate. In the 5 years since he's shooting 19.6%

 

[dgibb10]

What if said players has an inflated shooting percentage because he gets the better part of the high percentage scoring chances of his line, then the following season, a percentage of those chances gets transferred to his linemates, resulting in a deflation of his shooting percentage, yet his point production stays the same?

High shooting% is a quick look at it, a generalization and a starting point.

A deeper look is expected goals, which takes into account the quality of each chance. and then of course just general context

I assume this may be a reference to Hyman? He's not so much shooting luck as he is a product of McDavid.

 

[Beezeral]

I don't know of a single Panthers fan who sees Reinhart as someone who will repeat these offensive numbers. He's a 30 goal PPG caliber player. This year is an outlier.

 

[dgibb10]

And then there is the odd guy who breaks out and then more or less maintains it.

Drai scored 50 in 2018 and had a s% of 21.6, prime regression candidate. In the 5 years since he's shooting 19.6%

22 year olds are a different case in my view. They tend to fit in with general prospect development.

Once you hit like 25-26 tho, generally you are what you are.

 

[Nucker101]

Outside of homers or people who think math is witchcraft, does anyone actually believe that these guys who shoot 20% will maintain it?

Next you'll tell me that teams with high PDO will regress *gasp*

 

[dgibb10]

Outside of homers or people who think math is witchcraft, does anyone actually believe that these guys who shoot 20% will maintain it?

Next you'll tell me that teams with high PDO will regress *gasp*

You act like "homers and people who think math is witchcraft" doesn't cover like 75% of the NHLs fanbase

 

[NailsHoglander]

I'm just glad the OP is here to show us the error of our ways

The hero we all deserve

 

[Rowlet]

Hoglander will shoot at a lower percentage, but all 20 of his goals have been at ES.

If he shoots lower % next year but gets some powerplay time he can increase his scoring.

 

[Nucker101]

You act like "homers and people who think math is witchcraft" doesn't cover like 75% of the NHLs fanbase

True lol, but sadly this thread won't be clicked on by most of them, most of them don't even post here. I'd say most posters who have spent enough time on HF over the years have generally learned about sh% regression

As a Canucks fan, a lot of expected Kuzmenko to regress but still be an above average shooter and so far that's been true. Sadly we have multiple regression candidates this year lol

 

[bambamcam4ever]

While I don't think Hyman and Reinhart are the type of scorers that will continue to score like this. They both are shooting from very high-percentage areas. A ton of their goals are net-front on the PP. It's not like when Stamkos or Matthews (who are exceptions to the shooting percentage rules) where they are constantly beating goalies from medium to low percentage areas.

Matthews best talent is finding space to get an open shot off in quality areas of the ice. That's what separates him, there are other guys who can shoot as well or better

 

[Scrantonicity 2]

Not shocked on Yegor.

Since this shooting% run is the only thing they've seen, combined with a subconscious desire for a player you acquired in trade to "break out".

The Devils suck and Sharangovich has been a stud for the Flames boasting one of the best shots in the league. Cope more.

In fact, this entire thread is a cope. If there were any Devils players actually playing well this year you wouldn't even make this thread.

 

[Goose]

 

[KevinRedkey]

Fun fact: Jim Pappin once scored 3 goals in a game where he only registered 1 shot.

 

[dgibb10]

The Devils suck and Sharangovich has been a stud for the Flames boasting one of the best shots in the league. Cope more.

In fact, this entire thread is a cope. If there were any Devils players actually playing well this year you wouldn't even make this thread.

Calgary fans when Yegor's metrics look exactly the same but he suddenly starts shooting 20% (surely this is sustainable)

 

[Scrantonicity 2]

Calgary fans when Yegor's metrics look exactly the same but he suddenly starts shooting 20% (surely this is sustainable)

It's 19% and will be lower when the season ends. He shot 14% through his first two years in New Jersey. You're parading around this year as the anomaly when it's actually last year that was. You've lost the plot because you've gone through 17 different tanks of copium since Fitzgerald bumbled the trade deadline and pissed away another season.

 

[seancolorado]

OP is right. We see it with at least one team a year where the entire time rides a high shooting % then the playoffs come around and they get smoked, or they do fine but not enough to win it all then get a reality check next year.

We also see it with goalie percentages but I'm not touching that. Goalies are weird if they're good they're good and I'll give them their flowers and not question it, even if it's a one-year thing. Not even attempting to predict sustainability with those strange crease cats, unless it's like Hellebuyck where you're like yea he's just good period even if there's a down game

 

[dgibb10]

It's 19% and he shot 14% through his first two years in New Jersey. You're parading around this year as the anomaly when it's actually last year that was. You've lost the plot because you've gone through 17 different tanks of copium since Fitzgerald bumbled the trade deadline and pissed away another season.

14% is in fact exactly where his norm would be. (it would have him as a 20 goal scorer with 150 minutes of power play time)

The concerning thing is this is yegor's WORST year in terms of chance generation at even strength

0.875 xGoals/60 last year, 0.804 in 21-22, 0.813 in 20-21.

This year, 0.661 xGoals/60.

 

[Captain Mountain]

It depends on the player.

Chris Kreider legitimately went from shooting about 11, 12% in the first half of his career to shooting 15% on a bad day.

A guy like Reinhart, who is entering his prime, may have legitimately developed his game to finish better. Granted, he's shooting 25% this year, but like, he's not gonna just be a 60 goal guy now. It's just a career high and there's nothing really of note there. Every player has a standout year or two in either direciton.

That being said, Reinhart is shooting almost 19% as a Panther over 228 games. I could see him settling in at 17% and legitimately being a 40 goal guy for the next few years.

He had already, but not to this degree. I don't think it really matters in his case though, because while its pretty likely his shooting will fall back to earth, Tkachuk and Barkov are better finishers that they've shown this year. And Reinhart brings a lot of value outside of scoring.

 

[dgibb10]

He had already, but not to this degree. I don't think it really matters in his case though, because while its pretty likely his shooting will fall back to earth, Tkachuk and Barkov are better finishers that they've shown this year. And Reinhart brings a lot of value outside of scoring.

Yeah the Panthers will be FINE as a whole. In fact, at least via moneypuck they actually have the 2nd worst Goals above expectation in the league even despite the Reinhart heater. Expected to have 22 more goals than they actually do.