Fanbases getting fooled by inflated shooting %s is my favourite trope.

[dgibb10]

Happens every year. You hear all about this "this player has broken out" and 90% of the time it's just some guy with a shooting% that's double his career rate.

Some great candidates for this year:

Reinhart
Mantha
Hoglander
Sharangovich
Coyle
Frederic
Coleman
Virtually the entire canucks roster
Fabbri
Dickinson
etc

Click to read more...

 

[Viqsi]

Happens every year. You hear all about this "this player has broken out" and 90% of the time it's just some guy with a shooting% that's double his career rate.

Some great candidates for this year:

Reinhart
Mantha
Hoglander
Sharangovich
Coyle
Frederic
Coleman
Virtually the entire canucks roster
Fabbri
Dickinson
etc

And then there was the one time it was Tage Thompson and wait a minute what the actual f*** he's still doing it

But yeah, most of the time...

 

[Satan]

60% of the time, it works every time

 

[dgibb10]

And then there was the one time it was Tage Thompson and wait a minute what the actual f*** he's still doing it

But yeah, most of the time...

Even tage is back down below 10% this year. First thing I check at this point when I hear about a breakout is where the player is on moneypucks "Goals above shooting talent" metric.

Uses career shooting rates to establish a baseline and then looks at this year.

Some guys ranking high:

Hyman (mcdavid effect)
Reinhart
Carcone
Harley
Sharangovich
Marchessault
Weegar
Connor
Mantha
Coleman
Dickinson

Helps to ignore the guys who are just elite shooters their whole career, like an Auston Matthews

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Can a grammarian weigh in on the use of “trope” in the title? Maybe “fallacy” instead?

 

[thefutures]

Random collection of players. Don't think reinhart is breaking out he seems to have been good for a while

 

[dgibb10]

Top 10 in Goals scored above shooting talent (moneypuck) from last year and their shooting% changes

McCann (19%--> 16.1%)
Kuzmenko (27.3%-->15.3%)
McDavid (18.2%-->11.7%)
Keller (16.6%--> 14.4%)
E Karlsson (12%--> 4.8%)
Cozens (14.7%--> 8.9%)
Stutzle (17.1%--> 9.7%)
Tage (15.9% --> 9.9%)
Kempe (16.4%-->10.3%
Tuch (16.5%-->11.7%)

60% of the time, it works every time

 

[93LEAFS]

While I don't think Hyman and Reinhart are the type of scorers that will continue to score like this. They both are shooting from very high-percentage areas. A ton of their goals are net-front on the PP. It's not like when Stamkos or Matthews (who are exceptions to the shooting percentage rules) where they are constantly beating goalies from medium to low percentage areas.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Can a grammarian weigh in on the use of “trope” in the title? Maybe “fallacy” instead?

"a common or overused theme or device"

Which isn't terrible. Fallacy would imply that it's a false belief necessarily.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

I think if you score a goal and it would put you over your career shooting %, the goal should not count. This would give us a much more realistic list of top scorers

 

[dgibb10]

While I don't think Hyman and Reinhart are the type of scorers that will continue to score like this. They both are shooting from very high-percentage areas. A ton of their goals are net-front on the PP. It's not like when Stamkos or Matthews (who are exceptions to the shooting percentage rules) where they are constantly beating goalies from medium to low percentage areas.

I agree. Both have xGoals in the high 30s because they definitely get high quality chances. They'll come down, but both are generating high quality chances on top of that.

Theyre guys who'll probably come down from 50+ to 40.

Whereas some of the other guys will probably be coming down from 20 to 10 or 30 to 20. Which is a MUCH bigger difference in perception of a player

 

[Chips]

Can a grammarian weigh in on the use of “trope” in the title? Maybe “fallacy” instead?

Philosophically should we worry about that on an Internet forum? Can we get a philisopher in here?

 

[dgibb10]

I think if you score a goal and it would put you over your career shooting %, the goal should not count. This would give us a much more realistic list of top scorers

The goals still count and provide value, you just shouldn't expect the player to keep shooting at that rate forever.

"a common or overused theme or device"

Which isn't terrible. Fallacy would imply that it's a false belief necessarily.

Fallacy could work I think. This would be an example of the hot hand fallacy, where a recent hot streak convinces people it is the new normal despite the underlying odds remaining generally unchanged

 

[Ezekial]

Can a grammarian weigh in on the use of “trope” in the title? Maybe “fallacy” instead?

My favorite trope is the Bumbling Dad

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2023140-what-went-wrong-for-the-2013-14-toronto-maple-leafs

 

[Backlund]

I don't think any Flames fan is fooled by Coleman, we all know its a career year for him. Some of them will argue you on Sharangovich though.

 

[dgibb10]

I don't think any Flames fan is fooled by Coleman, we all know its a career year for him. Some of them will argue you on Sharangovich though.

Not shocked on Yegor.

Since this shooting% run is the only thing they've seen, combined with a subconscious desire for a player you acquired in trade to "break out".

 

[Mattilaus]

Top 10 in Goals scored above shooting talent (moneypuck) from last year and their shooting% changes

McCann (19%--> 16.1%)
Kuzmenko (27.3%-->15.3%)
McDavid (18.2%-->11.7%)
Keller (16.6%--> 14.4%)
E Karlsson (12%--> 4.8%)
Cozens (14.7%--> 8.9%)
Stutzle (17.1%--> 9.7%)
Tage (15.9% --> 9.9%)
Kempe (16.4%-->10.3%
Tuch (16.5%-->11.7%)

I feel personally attacked.

 

[Machinehead]

It depends on the player.

Chris Kreider legitimately went from shooting about 11, 12% in the first half of his career to shooting 15% on a bad day.

A guy like Reinhart, who is entering his prime, may have legitimately developed his game to finish better. Granted, he's shooting 25% this year, but like, he's not gonna just be a 60 goal guy now. It's just a career high and there's nothing really of note there. Every player has a standout year or two in either direciton.

That being said, Reinhart is shooting almost 19% as a Panther over 228 games. I could see him settling in at 17% and legitimately being a 40 goal guy for the next few years.

 

[dgibb10]

I feel personally attacked.

Tage and Cozens are still young so I expect them to bounce back. I can see cozens as a 12% shooter and Tage getting to 15. Tuch as a career 10-11% shooter with 1 year at 16.5% was always due for regression tho.

Younger guys have more skewed metrics here, because the shooting as a youngster is often deflated.

Once you hit like 25-26 tho you generally are what you are

 

[Help]

my favourite player can sustain it. he is special.

 

[dgibb10]

It depends on the player.

Chris Kreider legitimately went from shooting about 11, 12% in the first half of his career to shooting 15% on a bad day.

A guy like Reinhart, who is entering his prime, may have legitimately developed his game to finish better. Granted, he's shooting 25% this year, but like, he's not gonna just be a 60 goal guy now. It's just a career high and there's nothing really of note there. Every player has a standout year or two in either direciton.

That being said, Reinhart is shooting almost 19% as a Panther over 228 games. I could see him settling in at 17% and legitimately being a 40 goal guy for the next few years.

I agree that they aren't going to completely fall off (reinhart/hyman specifically both have around 40xGoals, so they are generating a shitton of chances).

But even looking at kreider.

8 years at 13.4%.

Then he had those 2 years at around 20% where he scored 70 goals in 130 games. (this was obviously due for regression even with improvement)

and now he's back to a more reasonable 15.7%

 

[Derailed75]

You win games on goals not shooting percentage. The more you shoot the better your chances they go in.

 

[dgibb10]

my favourite player can sustain it. he is special.

He changed his diet in the offseason and this is clearly the result. Sustainable

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

You win games on goals not shooting percentage. The more you shoot the better your chances they go in.

So sayeth the prophet Great Eight, amen.