Erik Karlsson vs Drew Doughty (All time)

[GreatGonzo]

I mean, they've literally been posted in full color.

I saw data showing him being “better” than Doughty. Doesn’t mean he was good defensively overall. There is a difference. I’m referring to the idea that he’s been good in his own end since becoming a shark and there have been “positives.” Out of 109 games, he’s been bleeding goals more or less, and his offense and overall abilities have taken wrong terms.

Im not all aboard the “I hate EK” wagon, but in certainly not going to pretend like he’s been such a monumental part of our defense and overall team and his trade has been successful so far. Far from it. Again, “inconsistent” is the best word to describe him, and that’s being generous in my opinion.

The whole team is dysfunctional so I’m not blaming him entirely, but he still was in a better position to excel than Ottawa and the same old arguments stirred up again, and it almost all has to do with his play in his own end, which was ALWAYS suspect, but excused before because he was putting up big points.

 

[Machinehead]

I saw data showing him being “better” than Doughty. Doesn’t mean he was good defensively overall. There is a difference. I’m referring to the idea that he’s been good in his own end since becoming a shark and there have been “positives.” Out of 109 games, he’s been bleeding goals more or less, and his offense and overall abilities have taken wrong terms.

Im not all aboard the “I hate EK” wagon, but in certainly not going to pretend like he’s been such a monumental part of our defense and overall team and his trade has been successful so far. Far from it. Again, “inconsistent” is the best word to describe him, and that’s being generous in my opinion.

The whole team is dysfunctional so I’m not blaming him entirely, but he still was in a better position to excel than Ottawa and the same old arguments stirred up again, and it almost all has to do with his play in his own end, which was ALWAYS suspect, but excused before because he was putting up big points.

Ok so you did see it.

You don't value it and that's your call, but don't tell me you didn't see it.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Ok so you did see it.

You don't value it and that's your call, but don't tell me you didn't see it.

My qualm with it is seeing a 'different tier' of results when neither guy has been themselves but Drew has been ridden into the ground defensively which makes his numbers look even worse (yet of course he's done himself no favors under Willie D or the better part of this year). The idea that LA is a better team without Drew Doughty is a laugher, like the suggestion is that Sean Walker could effortlessly stroll into his minutes without skipping a beat is actually being peddled here to make Drew look worse. Again, we're rarely without Drew to find out, but look what happened without him when veteran Martinez (and lol Fantenberg) stepped into his role and got absolutely rolled.

To the thesis of this thread, neither guy has done anything of note in 2018-2019 or 2019-2020 to further their legacies nor has either guy tarnished his legacy more than another one.

And to your previous points zone starts in and of themselves are kind of stupid but as I pointed out we are incredibly short on proxies to show how players are used as well as ways to demonstrate the 'value' of a 'negative' event (goal and shot prevention, trying to prove the 'absence' of one). But we're all watching the same games, we know that TM is using Doughty as the shutdown guy and Walker the offensive guy, or at least take our word for it, sheesh.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

The thing with usage is that, yes, I am a little disappointed with Karlsson's output in San Jose finally given the opportunity to not have to do everything.

In his defense, he's been injured, San Jose has not been as a good a team as we anticipated, and we're probably a bit spoiled because his metrics still indicate an elite player at the end of the day.

In Ottawa, I always felt he had he had possibly the hardest job in the league, unless you're just going by zone starts. Zone starts are so bad for so many reasons and it's infuriating that they're one of the metrics to gain mainstream traction. It's like when Brett Howden scores.

had to get in your daily howden jab huh

 

[Samsquanch]

Who would have thought that the answer 3 years later would be: neither

Edit: D'oh, missed the all time part (was cut out in my browser). And obviously I didnt read the OP... For shame.

All time gotta go with my boy EK. He was a god when his skating and ankle were at 100%, controlled the game to higher degree than every Dman since Lids.

 

[GreatGonzo]

I will never understand how a guy who is among the NHL TOI leaders every year can only play soft minutes.

EK? He hasn’t been anywhere near the top of TOI in years now. Him and Burns are also deployed more for offensive use than shut down use. Playing a lot of minutes doesn’t always mean he still isn’t getting catered towards his strong suits, which is creating offense.

Karlsson’s 3 most common forward opponents in his time as a Shark have been Anze Kopitar, Connor McDavid, and Elias Pettersson. He has averaged 24 minutes and 29 seconds per game.

Can you please substantiate how he has played “soft minutes”?

I don’t see the significance of those 3, especially considering that 2 of them play on dumpster fires, especially defensively. More minutes doesn’t always mean the “harder” minutes, especially when he’s being deployed more for offensive use.

EK has put up more points against LA and Edmonton, while still putting up good point totals against Vancouver, than any other teams over the last couple of years. These teams have been near the bottom defensively though. Burns also scores well against these 3 teams.

 

[Machinehead]

had to get in your daily howden jab huh

Daily?

You're selling me short.

 

[Voight]

I would say you ever once made an argument to support your position, but that would be a lie.

I did, as did many others, but you didn't refute them and just rambled on to try and prove your asinine point.

 

[GreatGonzo]

Ok so you did see it.

You don't value it and that's your call, but don't tell me you didn't see it.

What?

Are you suggesting that I have said that the information was inaccurate? No, only that that wasn’t the argument or the point I was making.

has nothing to do with value. It’s about arguing something that the data doesn’t show, and that’s that EKs contribution defensively has been an overall positive. Being better than Doughty defensively doesn’t correlate to that, sorry to break it to you.

One is used far more defensively and more often while the other is used far more offensively and not as often, especially defensively. It isn’t hard to understand. Call Doughty bad defensively, call EK the better player.....doesn’t change the fact that EK still hasn’t been strong in his own end.

 

[Machinehead]

My qualm with it is seeing a 'different tier' of results when neither guy has been themselves but Drew has been ridden into the ground defensively which makes his numbers look even worse (yet of course he's done himself no favors under Willie D or the better part of this year). The idea that LA is a better team without Drew Doughty is a laugher, like the suggestion is that Sean Walker could effortlessly stroll into his minutes without skipping a beat is actually being peddled here to make Drew look worse. Again, we're rarely without Drew to find out, but look what happened without him when veteran Martinez (and lol Fantenberg) stepped into his role and got absolutely rolled.

To the thesis of this thread, neither guy has done anything of note in 2018-2019 or 2019-2020 to further their legacies nor has either guy tarnished his legacy more than another one.

And to your previous points zone starts in and of themselves are kind of stupid but as I pointed out we are incredibly short on proxies to show how players are used as well as ways to demonstrate the 'value' of a 'negative' event (goal and shot prevention, trying to prove the 'absence' of one). But we're all watching the same games, we know that TM is using Doughty as the shutdown guy and Walker the offensive guy, or at least take our word for it, sheesh.

Well if we're talking about "the team is better without him" we're just talking about on/off numbers where the on are worse, but that's not necessarily the language I would use. You have to take into account that if Doughty isn't available at all in a given game, the game is still 60 minutes and somebody has to replace him and play under the same context, or his teammates have to replace that context in aggregate. Rel stats are comparing players to teammates who aren't on the ice during the same sample. That's why we're moving away from rel stats and more towards replacement-based stats, and I think it's a good thing.

Of course, particularly for a player of Doughty's stature, you want to the on stats to be better regardless, but I think even Kings fans have unanimously acknowledge that he isn't himself. He has a prickly personality if you're a fan of the other 30 teams, but in this case I don't fault him. If I spent my entire young career competing and then had to play for a team going nowhere, I wouldn't be completely engaged either. The same thing happened to Lundqvist (in addition to him just getting old).

I agree with your notion that when we look back in 20 years, neither of the last two years will be remembered for either player. So far, I've preferred Karlsson. That's just me. I grew up with Leetch, that's my style. But we'll see where it goes. I definitely think it's a worthwhile discussion which is why it keeps coming up.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

And yes, it does--part of the problem with these stats is they still don't have a way to account for what guys like Vlasic and Doughty do when they're on, because you're stuck trying to prove a negative somehow--negating shots and goals literally shows up as a zero. yes you can drive play the other way and get your differentials up but that doesn't show that they're doing well in their own end (obviously last few years mileage varies for Vlasic, just using him as an example with which you're well acquainted).

This here shows what is creating this disagreement; a major misunderstanding of advanced stats and how they work.

Metrics like RAPM CA (isolated impact on shots against) use predictor variables to compare a player's actual results to a baseline results based on the context surrounding them. For every second of a shift where you don't allow a shot, you are out-performing the baseline expectation. For example, if you start a 60 second shift against Boston's top line in the defensive zone, and you're playing with average teammates, and you don't allow a shot against, you will have out-performed the baseline for CA and your RAPM CA for that shift will be a negative number.

These metrics actually do give plenty of credit to guys like Vlasic and Doughty and what they did when they were on. In fact, these metrics give so much more credit to Vlasic in particular than anybody else did throughout his prime, which is why it's so weird to me every time I read something like this about Vlasic. (It's not the first time I've read it either - I've seen Sharks fans use this same argument in defense of Vlasic posting atrocious metrics over the past two years.)

From 2007-2008 through 2017-2018 (when Vlasic and Doughty were both actually good), not only did Vlasic have the highest net RAPM xG+/- impact of any defenseman in the NHL, but the gap between he and 2nd place Chara was larger than the gap between 2nd place Chara and 10th place Dan Boyle. Right above Boyle is 9th place Drew Doughty, who definitely was very highly regarded by these metrics as well.

Spoiler

If you'll notice, the "xGA" column contains your proof of a negative right there. Vlasic's xGA impact of -30.58 shows the Sharks allowed 30.58 fewer expected goals with Vlasic on the ice than they would have with an average player; his defensive value alone is enough to get him into the top-9 on the net impact chart.

Speaking of proving a negative; Doughty's impact on shots against was literally the best of any defenseman over this sample, and his net impact on shots was only 2nd to Erik Karlsson.

Spoiler

And while defensemen can't consistently influence goal-based metrics, Doughty ranked 2nd in net goal impacts, and Vlasic ranked 7th over this same sample.

Spoiler

These metrics give plenty of credit to what players like Doughty and Vlasic did in their primes. In fact, I'm sure that now that I've posted this, people are going to tell me these metrics are useless because they rate Vlasic so highly.

Karlsson actually falls far behind both of them in expected goal impacts and goal impacts, which is why if you haven't noticed, I haven't said anything about these players at the career level; I'm not even entirely convinced that Karlsson has had the better career than Doughty, and I can see an argument for either player. I definitely think that Karlsson was the more talented, and dynamic player, but as a whole, his impact on quality shot and goal shares was pretty underwhelming relative to that level of rare dynamic talent, where as Doughty had a pretty strong impact.

However, what I am taking issue with, is these completely unsubstantiated claims that Karlsson has been bad over the past 2-3 years, or that Doughty has been better. All of the evidence shows that Karlsson has been far and away the superior player, and the gap between their results over the past 2-3 seasons is past the margin of error of interpretation of these stats; if you want to look at these stats and say that Karlsson's results haven't been better, then you have to be discrediting these stats entirely at that point. (Doughty was better in 2017-2018 but has been clearly inferior in the two most recent seasons and has been clearly inferior if you aggregate these 3 seasons.)

 

[Aladyyn]

EK? He hasn’t been anywhere near the top of TOI in years now. Him and Burns are also deployed more for offensive use than shut down use. Playing a lot of minutes doesn’t always mean he still isn’t getting catered towards his strong suits, which is creating offense.

Karlsson and Burns combine to play like 50 minutes in any given game. I guess the Sharks just don't play any defense ever in your eyes?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

This here shows what is creating this disagreement; a major misunderstanding of advanced stats and how they work.

Metrics like RAPM CA (isolated impact on shots against) use predictor variables to compare a player's actual results to a baseline results based on the context surrounding them. For every second of a shift where you don't allow a shot, you are out-performing the baseline expectation. For example, if you start a 60 second shift against Boston's top line in the defensive zone, and you're playing with average teammates, and you don't allow a shot against, you will have out-performed the baseline for CA and your RAPM CA for that shift will be a negative number.

These metrics actually do give plenty of credit to guys like Vlasic and Doughty and what they did when they were on. In fact, these metrics give so much more credit to Vlasic in particular than anybody else did throughout his prime, which is why it's so weird to me every time I read something like this about Vlasic. (It's not the first time I've read it either - I've seen Sharks fans use this same argument in defense of Vlasic posting atrocious metrics over the past two years.)

From 2007-2008 through 2017-2018 (when Vlasic and Doughty were both actually good), not only did Vlasic have the highest net RAPM xG+/- impact of any defenseman in the NHL, but the gap between he and 2nd place Chara was larger than the gap between 2nd place Chara and 10th place Dan Boyle. Right above Boyle is 9th place Drew Doughty, who definitely was very highly regarded by these metrics as well.

Spoiler

View attachment 341713

If you'll notice, the "xGA" column contains your proof of a negative right there. Vlasic's xGA impact of -30.58 shows the Sharks allowed 30.58 fewer expected goals with Vlasic on the ice than they would have with an average player; his defensive value alone is enough to get him into the top-9 on the net impact chart.

Speaking of proving a negative; Doughty's impact on shots against was literally the best of any defenseman over this sample, and his net impact on shots was only 2nd to Erik Karlsson.

Spoiler

View attachment 341717

And while defensemen can't consistently influence goal-based metrics, Doughty ranked 2nd in net goal impacts, and Vlasic ranked 7th over this same sample.

Spoiler

View attachment 341718

These metrics give plenty of credit to what players like Doughty and Vlasic did in their primes. In fact, I'm sure that now that I've posted this, people are going to tell me these metrics are useless because they rate Vlasic so highly.

Karlsson actually falls far behind both of them in expected goal impacts and goal impacts, which is why if you haven't noticed, I haven't said anything about these players at the career level; I'm not even entirely convinced that Karlsson has had the better career than Doughty, and I can see an argument for either player. I definitely think that Karlsson was the more talented, and dynamic player, but as a whole, his impact on quality shot and goal shares was pretty underwhelming relative to that level of rare dynamic talent, where as Doughty had a pretty strong impact.

However, what I am taking issue with, is these completely unsubstantiated claims that Karlsson has been bad over the past 2-3 years, or that Doughty has been better. All of the evidence shows that Karlsson has been far and away the superior player, and the gap between their results over the past 2-3 seasons is past the margin of error of interpretation of these stats; if you want to look at these stats and say that Karlsson's results haven't been better, then you have to be discrediting these stats entirely at that point. (Doughty was better in 2017-2018 but has been clearly inferior in the two most recent seasons and has been clearly inferior if you aggregate these 3 seasons.)

beautiful and perfect post on the topic. also mcdonagh>doughty @Machinehead

 

[Machinehead]

beautiful and perfect post on the topic. also mcdonagh>doughty @Machinehead

Let's not go back to 2014, I'll have a panic attack.

 

[GreatGonzo]

Karlsson and Burns combine to play like 50 minutes in any given game. I guess the Sharks just don't play any defense ever in your eyes?

The Sharks system was running through Burns and EK, which of course has them playing tons of minutes, but don’t confuse a lot of minutes with good defensive play. Those two were meant to take the puck up and start the rush, which used to be EKs strongest skill. It also leaves both vulnerable defensively. They have both bled goals over the last couple of years. Jones in net didn’t help either.

again, more minutes doesn’t mean more or better defense. Anyone who has watched the sharks play over this past season and a lot last season know they have struggled on all levels defensively. EK and Burns haven’t helped. The Sharks aren’t a defensively deep team.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

This here shows what is creating this disagreement; a major misunderstanding of advanced stats and how they work.

Metrics like RAPM CA (isolated impact on shots against) use predictor variables to compare a player's actual results to a baseline results based on the context surrounding them. For every second of a shift where you don't allow a shot, you are out-performing the baseline expectation. For example, if you start a 60 second shift against Boston's top line in the defensive zone, and you're playing with average teammates, and you don't allow a shot against, you will have out-performed the baseline for CA and your RAPM CA for that shift will be a negative number.

These metrics actually do give plenty of credit to guys like Vlasic and Doughty and what they did when they were on. In fact, these metrics give so much more credit to Vlasic in particular than anybody else did throughout his prime, which is why it's so weird to me every time I read something like this about Vlasic. (It's not the first time I've read it either - I've seen Sharks fans use this same argument in defense of Vlasic posting atrocious metrics over the past two years.)

From 2007-2008 through 2017-2018 (when Vlasic and Doughty were both actually good), not only did Vlasic have the highest net RAPM xG+/- impact of any defenseman in the NHL, but the gap between he and 2nd place Chara was larger than the gap between 2nd place Chara and 10th place Dan Boyle. Right above Boyle is 9th place Drew Doughty, who definitely was very highly regarded by these metrics as well.

Spoiler

View attachment 341713

If you'll notice, the "xGA" column contains your proof of a negative right there. Vlasic's xGA impact of -30.58 shows the Sharks allowed 30.58 fewer expected goals with Vlasic on the ice than they would have with an average player; his defensive value alone is enough to get him into the top-9 on the net impact chart.

Speaking of proving a negative; Doughty's impact on shots against was literally the best of any defenseman over this sample, and his net impact on shots was only 2nd to Erik Karlsson.

Spoiler

View attachment 341717

And while defensemen can't consistently influence goal-based metrics, Doughty ranked 2nd in net goal impacts, and Vlasic ranked 7th over this same sample.

Spoiler

View attachment 341718

These metrics give plenty of credit to what players like Doughty and Vlasic did in their primes. In fact, I'm sure that now that I've posted this, people are going to tell me these metrics are useless because they rate Vlasic so highly.

Karlsson actually falls far behind both of them in expected goal impacts and goal impacts, which is why if you haven't noticed, I haven't said anything about these players at the career level; I'm not even entirely convinced that Karlsson has had the better career than Doughty, and I can see an argument for either player. I definitely think that Karlsson was the more talented, and dynamic player, but as a whole, his impact on quality shot and goal shares was pretty underwhelming relative to that level of rare dynamic talent, where as Doughty had a pretty strong impact.

However, what I am taking issue with, is these completely unsubstantiated claims that Karlsson has been bad over the past 2-3 years, or that Doughty has been better. All of the evidence shows that Karlsson has been far and away the superior player, and the gap between their results over the past 2-3 seasons is past the margin of error of interpretation of these stats; if you want to look at these stats and say that Karlsson's results haven't been better, then you have to be discrediting these stats entirely at that point. (Doughty was better in 2017-2018 but has been clearly inferior in the two most recent seasons and has been clearly inferior if you aggregate these 3 seasons.)

Thank you for doing all that. That's a mammoth post with a lot of good info and you deserve credit for putting it all together in a very reasonable manner.

I do understand those stats pretty well. My grievance is still with 'expected' results (and predictors) vs. actual results for events that have happened. There's clear dissonance even within those charts, and rankings change a bit if you go by what really happened. (I do find it really interesting that Doughty was expected to be better offensively and worse defensively. I also laughed good re the Vlasic point--it's like as a group no one paid attention to him until it was too late).

I don't know if you're talking to me on this point or not, but I never said Karlsson is bad or that over the last two years in particular Doughty has been better, only that by deployment/utilization his results have comparatively been set up to fail, and that saying Karlsson is currently on a different tier isn't accurate. Games played matter--being on the ice and healthy is a 'skill'. Yes, aggregate results matter, but when one guy had a legit Norris case in 2018, you can't just say he's sucked for three years, because that's not accurate.

I appreciate you looking back over their whole careers as that's the point of the thread, and my issue is with this myopic, selective slice of career crafted to make Doughty look bad. He hasn't done himself any favors either, no Kings fans are going to tell you otherwise, but like I said above nothing that's happened especially in the last two years is going to change the macro view of EK's OR Doughty's careers. It's a very strange, agenda-driven focus.

Let's not go back to 2014, I'll have a panic attack.

Pretty sure I owe you a few beers for those years.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

beautiful and perfect post on the topic. also mcdonagh>doughty @Machinehead

Yes, this is what a real post looks like, not just posting two RAPM charts and going "lol Drew sucks." Take notes.

 

[Machinehead]

Pretty sure I owe you a few beers for those years.

I think I also owe you a few after some of that pre-series posturing, so if I'm ever in SoCal, I gotchu

That series was hard to take but looking back, I was young and in the Stanley Cup Finals. Now I'm almost 30 and in quarantine. Could always be worse.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

After Doughty’s comments today, I’m changing my vote.

 

[Machinehead]

After Doughty’s comments today, I’m changing my vote.

When Drew Doughty is more reasonable than politicians.

Sad.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I will never understand how a guy who is among the NHL TOI leaders every year can only play soft minutes.

I'm not sure which one you're talking about because their ES TOI/GP since 2010 to this season is identical according to NHL.com (only Suter has higher ES TOI/GP during that time).

Though there's a big gap between Doughty and Karlsson in SH TOI/GP.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Yes, this is what a real post looks like, not just posting two RAPM charts and going "lol Drew sucks." Take notes.

yeah i usually dont post my fully thought out responses on hf i save those for discord. but yeah career drew is a great defenseman but 18-20 drew is a player who has provided slightly more value than kurtis macdermid

 

[VoluntaryDom]

I think I also owe you a few after some of that pre-series posturing, so if I'm ever in SoCal, I gotchu

That series was hard to take but looking back, I was young and in the Stanley Cup Finals. Now I'm almost 30 and in quarantine. Could always be worse.

and now im 17 and in pain!

 

[Machinehead]

and now im 17 and in pain!

You got your early 20's to look forward to. It's a good time.

 

[Agent Zub]

I'm not sure which one you're talking about because their ES TOI/GP since 2010 to this season is identical according to NHL.com (only Suter has higher ES TOI/GP during that time).

Though there's a big gap between Doughty and Karlsson in SH TOI/GP.

Agreed, Suter, Doughty and Karlsson all played harder minutes than 95% of the league.