Speculation: Elliotte Friedman on Matthews speculation with his next contract

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

John Shannon was just on WGR radio in Buffalo - first he opined that Ryan O'Reilly is worth a 2nd round draft pick, then he had this to say about the Babcock/Mathews relationship

great. nothing's more helpful than a Sabres fan who knows nothing about the Leafs sharing garbage like this on the Leafs board.

 

[Sypher04]

Agreed its not what the Leafs would want but ....

If the Leafs want to buy 3 years of potential UFA earnings away from Matthews on an 8 year deal that will be exceedingly costly and impact his current AAV.

If Jack Eichel contract is the floor for Matthews and he lets say he gets $11 mil instead of $10 mil per year as RFA

= 5 years (RFA status) @ $11 mil ($55 mil) + 3 years (UFA eligible) @ $15 mil ($45 mil) = $100 mil over 8 years = $12.5 mil AAV = McDavid contract.

Those 3 years of potential UFA earnings almost as costly as his 5 years while RFA status.

Eichel's contract is 10m average and also buys UFA years.

11 should be the Matthews AAV if Matthews extends this summer. If he doesn't and has a monster season next year, only then does he start approaching that 12.5 imo

 

[Nineteen67]

If Matthews agent pushes for 5 years that means Matthews would be a UFA at the end of the contract and could demand huge $$ thereafter.

If Matthews doesn't like the number the Leafs are offering for 8 years commitment to resign now, then we might see the 5 years becoming more realistic an option for the Matthews camp.

Exactly.

He’ll give them a break for the opportunity at explore FA when he’s 25 or 26, but if they want him to stay in Toronto for the extra three years it’ll come at an extremely high premium.

What would the Leafs do? Pay 5 x 8 mill or 8 x 14 mill

 

[Sypher04]

Exactly.

He’ll give them a break for the opportunity at explore FA when he’s 25 or 26, but if they want him to stay in Toronto for the extra three years it’ll come at an extremely high premium.

What would the Leafs do? Pay 5 x 8 mill or 8 x 14 mill

It's more like 5x8 vs 8x11 which is a pretty easy call for the longer term

Also most players don't leave tens of millions of dollars in garaunteed money on the table. They understand the unpredictability of sports injuries and how they can derail a career.

 

[ToneDog]

great. nothing's more helpful than a Sabres fan who knows nothing about the Leafs sharing garbage like this on the Leafs board.

John Shannon is one of ours on SportsNet.

 

[ToneDog]

Noodles said it clearly. Matthews is not McDavid. Keeping and adding players will be difficult if we overpay. Oilers overpaid on Draisaitl and it will hurt them.

Keep saying McDavid > Matthews >= Eichel > Pasta >= Marner > Nylander >= Ehlers

Schiefele is making $6.125. He is underpaid but the Jets will now benefit from it unless Laine getting Eichel money upsets the cart.

This should be pretty simple but some folks in the media like to stir the pot in order to keep the ratings I guess.

 

[Nineteen67]

It's more like 5x8 vs 8x11 which is a pretty easy call for the longer term

Also most players don't leave tens of millions of dollars in garaunteed money on the table. They understand the unpredictability of sports injuries and how they can derail a career.

If I was him, I’d gamble on myself and take 40 million now (which would be about 15 million after taxes etc) and then test FA

Now, if Leafs want to pay for the extra three years, it would cost them dearly- no less than 8 x 14 million per

 

[Mess]

It's more like 5x8 vs 8x11 which is a pretty easy call for the longer term

Also most players don't leave tens of millions of dollars in garaunteed money on the table. They understand the unpredictability of sports injuries and how they can derail a career.

If you believe most players don't leave tens of millions of dollars in guaranteed money on the table, then what makes you think Matthews is taking 8 years at $11 mil = $88 mil when that would be leaving tens of millions on the table in lost $$ down the road?

Your including 3 years of potential UFA rates in that 8 year discount contract for the Leafs, but costing Matthews tens of millions in the process. Just consider for a second if Matthews were 26 years old and a pending UFA what kind of $$$$ he would get on the market in 5 years time when the cap might be => $90 mil ceiling? That is the argument Matthews agent would be making right now to Leafs management for his client.

Your $11 mil will look like chump change to Auston relatively speaking if the Cap ceiling is $90 mil and he could be earning +$15 mil per in years 6-8 (UFA status years) where $11 mil of 90 mil ceiling = C.H. 8.18% whereas McDavid C.H. 16.67% today already and Jack Eichel = C.H.% : 13.33 %.

If Matthews is worth $11 mil today (starting 2019 season) then in 6-8 years he would be vastly underpaid.. You would have to figure out what he would be worth in the future of a rising cap and work backwards to come up with current present value amount in year 1 of his AAV.

 

[LeafsNation75]

great. nothing's more helpful than a Sabres fan who knows nothing about the Leafs sharing garbage like this on the Leafs board.

Not only that it's coming from someone like John Shannon who works at Sportsnet. The same station who employees Nick Kypreos who said Mark Hunter was the #1 candidate for the Leafs GM according to his sources.

 

[Sypher04]

If you believe most players don't leave tens of millions of dollars in guaranteed money on the table, then what makes you think Matthews is taking 8 years at $11 mil = $88 mil when that would be leaving tens of millions on the table in lost $$ down the road?

Your including 3 years of potential UFA rates in that 8 year discount contract for the Leafs, but costing Matthews tens of millions in the process. Just consider for a second if Matthews were 26 years old and a pending UFA what kind of $$$$ he would get on the market in 5 years time when the cap might be => $90 mil ceiling? That is the argument Matthews agent would be making right now to Leafs management for his client.

Your $11 mil will look like chump change to Auston relatively speaking if the Cap ceiling is $90 mil and he could be earning +$15 mil per in years 6-8 (UFA status years) where $11 mil of 90 mil ceiling = C.H. 8.18% whereas McDavid C.H. 16.67% today already and Jack Eichel = C.H.% : 13.33 %.

Same argument could have been made for why Eichel and McDavid don't sign their contracts and yet those were both not only done, but done quickly after they were able to be despite everyone knowing full well that cap was set to rise significantly with Vegas revenues coming.

You guys are making this more complicated than it needs to be.

He will make more than Eichel. Less than McDavid. And it's gonna be 8 years. Book it.

 

[Sypher04]

If I was him, I’d gamble on myself and take 40 million now (which would be about 15 million after taxes etc) and then test FA

Now, if Leafs want to pay for the extra three years, it would cost them dearly- no less than 8 x 14 million per

Again, there's zero evidence when comparing around the league to support than an 8 year deal will cost us 14 million.

Come back to reality.

 

[diceman934]

If Matthews agent pushes for 5 years that means Matthews would be a UFA at the end of the contract and could demand huge $$ thereafter.

If Matthews doesn't like the number the Leafs are offering for 8 years commitment to resign now, then we might see the 5 years becoming more realistic an option for the Matthews camp.

No way would we sign him to a 5 year deal. 3 years if he insists on a shorter term or 8 years.

 

[diceman934]

Agreed its not what the Leafs would want but ....

If the Leafs want to buy 3 years of potential UFA earnings away from Matthews on an 8 year deal that will be exceedingly costly and impact his current AAV.



If Jack Eichel contract is the floor for Matthews and he lets say he gets $11 mil instead of $10 mil per year as RFA

= 5 years (RFA status) @ $11 mil ($55 mil) + 3 years (UFA eligible) @ $15 mil ($45 mil) = $100 mil over 8 years = $12.5 mil AAV = McDavid contract.

Those 3 years of potential UFA earnings almost as costly as his 5 years while RFA status.

So its a rather easy case to make for Matthews to get the same $100 mil/8 years and $12.5 mil AAV that Connor makes.

No it is not unless we are stupid beyond what we have ever seen before. We are not going to sign him for 5 years and then if we sign him short term it is not for anything close to 10 m per as why the hell would we pay him the same money we would be willing to pay him for long term over a short term deal.

 

[Mess]

No way would we sign him to a 5 year deal. 3 years if he insists on a shorter term or 8 years.

Leafs would want 3 year bridge or 8 year term.
&
Matthews would want 5 year bridge (taking him to UFA status) or 8 year term (but only if the $$$ was worth it) to relinquish 3 years of UFA status eligibility.

All comes down to how much Dubas is willing to offer on behalf of MLSE to Matthews to get him locked up for 8 years. If the offer is $100 mil /8 years like McDavid got then Auston might agree to 8 years term this summer.

That is not going to be an easy negotiation however of a potential franchise #1C, where both sides might be millions /season apart on term.

So what is the $$ and AAV on a 3 year deal or 8 year deal as that is what Leafs would be offering?

 

[Sypher04]

If I was him, I’d gamble on myself and take 40 million now (which would be about 15 million after taxes etc) and then test FA

Now, if Leafs want to pay for the extra three years, it would cost them dearly- no less than 8 x 14 million per

It's not only about gambling on yourself. It's about injuries which cannot be controlled too.

If he takes 5x8 now to ensure he makes 8x16 (which is probably high) in the next contract, guess what... 8 years from the day he signed the first of those 2 contracts, he's now made 88 million dollars. The exact same amount he would make in 8 years at 11 million. The only difference is he screwed his team in the process.

 

[Nineteen67]

Again, there's zero evidence when comparing around the league to support than an 8 year deal will cost us 14 million.

Come back to reality.

You’re missing my point. If the Leafs want him to spend the extra three years living in Toronto they would have to pay big time.
Otherwise I exercise my right to play elsewhere.

 

[Nineteen67]

It's not only about gambling on yourself. It's about injuries which cannot be controlled too.

If he takes 5x8 now to ensure he makes 8x16 (which is probably high) in the next contract, guess what... 8 years from the day he signed the first of those 2 contracts, he's now made 88 million dollars. The exact same amount he would make in 8 years at 11 million. The only difference is he screwed his team in the process.

It’s more about mobility than $$

 

[Sypher04]

It’s more about mobility than $$

5x8 now most likely leaves money on the table over the course of 8 years and no for no particular reason. He will almost assuredly sign 8 years.

 

[Sypher04]

You’re missing my point. If the Leafs want him to spend the extra three years living in Toronto they would have to pay big time.
Otherwise I exercise my right to play elsewhere.

No, you're missing the point that 8 years @ 11 million per is already paying that premium

Matthews is not an 11 million dollar player right now. If he signs short term he's making more like 8.

Also, his peers like Eichel and McDavid already signed 8 year deals as soon as they could, despite the fact they were having UFA years purchased too.

People are waaaay overthinking this.

 

[Mess]

If I were putting myself in Matthews agent shoes then he might ask the Leafs for something like this on and gradually increasing scale per year.

RFA years ($60 mil)
Year #1 = $10 mil
Year #2 = $11 mil
Year #3 = $12 mil
Year#4 = $ 13 mil
Year#5 = $ 14 mil
+
UFA years ($45 mil)
Year #6 = $15 mil
Year #7 = $15 mil
Year #8 = $15 mil

8 years @ $105 mil = $13.125 AAV on term or $60 mil over 5 years @ $12 mil AAV.

What would Leafs counter offer on a 3 year bridge or 8 year term that Matthews would agree to sign?

PS. McDavid contract is $100 mil/8 years but starting this year with AAV $12.5 mil.

 

[diceman934]

If I was him, I’d gamble on myself and take 40 million now (which would be about 15 million after taxes etc) and then test FA

Now, if Leafs want to pay for the extra three years, it would cost them dearly- no less than 8 x 14 million per

Except the leafs are not going to sign him to a 5 years deal nor would they be offering 8m on a short term deal.

He has only the threats of a trade me or pay me what I want right now so we hold all the bargaining chips. If we sign him to a 5 year deal all the management people including Shanny should be instantly fired.

We will likely only be negotiating 8 years at between 10 and 11.5 per. He deserved less then 10m per based on his numbers But we would be willing to pay him more based on his status and potential numbers but no way will he get McDavid cap hit and if he does see above.

My real concern is the rift between the Mathews and the Leafs the leaks coming out from the Mathews family is growing and it looks like their target is Babcock. If this does not get fixed it leaves the Leafs with a choice Mathews or Babcock.

 

[Nineteen67]

No, you're missing the point that 8 years @ 11 million per is already paying that premium

Matthews is not an 11 million dollar player right now. If he signs short term he's making more like 8.

Also, his peers like Eichel and McDavid already signed 8 year deals as soon as they could, despite the fact they were having UFA years purchased too.

People are waaaay overthinking this.

I’d do 8 x11 in Nashville, Tampa (although this time zone deal is something to think about) Dallas, Pheonix, Anaheim, San Jose., Chicago, Colorado, to name a few. Especially those states with no state income tax.

Toronto, and few others, would pay an extra 3 or 4 mill per year premium, simply because of geography, taxes, media and fan scrutiny for starters.

 

[diceman934]

If I were putting myself in Matthews agent shoes then he might ask the Leafs for something like this on and gradually increasing scale per year.

RFA years ($60 mil)
Year #1 = $10 mil
Year #2 = $11 mil
Year #3 = $12 mil
Year#4 = $ 13 mil
Year#5 = $ 14 mil
+
UFA years ($45 mil)
Year #6 = $15 mil
Year #7 = $15 mil
Year #8 = $15 mil

8 years @ $105 mil = $13.125 AAV on term or $60 mil over 5 years @ $12 mil AAV.

What would Leafs counter offer on a 3 year bridge or 8 year term that Matthews would agree to sign?

PS. McDavid contract is $100 mil/8 years but starting this year with AAV $12.5 mil.

If that is what he insisted on look for him not getting a deal this year and a hold out situation after the following season as he simply not worth that contract.

Last thing why would we pay him more then any player in the NHL during his RFA years.
If we were to sign him to a deal like that fire all people in that decision

 

[Nineteen67]

Except the leafs are not going to sign him to a 5 years deal nor would they be offering 8m on a short term deal.

He has only the threats of a trade me or pay me what I want right now so we hold all the bargaining chips. If we sign him to a 5 year deal all the management people including Shanny should be instantly fired.

We will likely only be negotiating 8 years at between 10 and 11.5 per. He deserved less then 10m per based on his numbers But we would be willing to pay him more based on his status and potential numbers but no way will he get McDavid cap hit and if he does see above.

My real concern is the rift between the Mathews and the Leafs the leaks coming out from the Mathews family is growing and it looks like their target is Babcock. If this does not get fixed it leaves the Leafs with a choice Mathews or Babcock.

If the Leafs gave him a 5 year contract it would be the most Leafs being Leafs moment in their history

 

[Mess]

He has only the threats of a trade me or pay me what I want right now so we hold all the bargaining chips.

Except of course an offersheet next summer when his ELC ends and teams would be lining up to pay him big $$ to attempt to steal him away.

Who is holding all the cards then as Leafs would be in a like it or lump it match scenario of a offer sheet situation or take the draft pick compensation.

Matthews will get paid one way or the other all he has to do is wait till next summer.

If I'm a franchise #1C and scoring at a PPG pace and among the best snipers at ES in the league I take my chances that any offersheet is getting me paid. It be like testing the UFA market rates but 5 years before I was eligible.

If I were the Leafs I wouldn't want to be heading into contract negations next summer with pending offersheet potential on the table forcing me to overpay to keep Matthews rights.