Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Jack7222]

If anything these results show that Wheeler was never the problem on that line (atleast not until maybe the last year where he was not a top line player). This year we have had a good long sample of 81-55 with Iafallo and Vilardi and in both cases the results have been mediocre at best (Iafallo) or "horror bad" at worst (with Vilardi).



I think this conversation about Mark's preference is overblown. Scheifele didn't go up to Bowness on the bench during the middle of the 3rd period in the Sharks game and asked for that line to be changed, he didn't go to Bowness in the middle of the 2nd and asked that line to be changed in the Buffalo game. It is pretty clear to me that there are certain things Bones doesn't like and for some reason thinks KC can't be taken off the top line and is making decisions based on that.

At the end of the day the buck stops with Rick. 55 is signed for 7 years, he is going to play with whom the coach wants him to play and like it if he wants to win a cup. Bringing up this stuff about player preference is letting the coach's responsibility off the hook.

I think prime Wheeler in 2017/18 probably had a similar effect to Ehlers at 5 on 5 in that he opened up a lot of space for those two and was a good puck carrier and distributor. As Wheeler slowed down the problems started to get a lot more obvious.

 

[Gm0ney]

If anything these results show that Wheeler was never the problem on that line (atleast not until maybe the last year where he was not a top line player). This year we have had a good long sample of 81-55 with Iafallo and Vilardi and in both cases the results have been mediocre at best (Iafallo) or "horror bad" at worst (with Vilardi).



I think this conversation about Mark's preference is overblown. Scheifele didn't go up to Bowness on the bench during the middle of the 3rd period in the Sharks game and asked for that line to be changed, he didn't go to Bowness in the middle of the 2nd and asked that line to be changed in the Buffalo game. It is pretty clear to me that there are certain things Bones doesn't like and for some reason thinks KC can't be taken off the top line and is making decisions based on that.

At the end of the day the buck stops with Rick. 55 is signed for 7 years, he is going to play with whom the coach wants him to play and like it if he wants to win a cup. Bringing up this stuff about player preference is letting the coach's responsibility off the hook.

We're all just searching for some plausible explanation to a situation that makes no sense...

 

[JetsFan815]

We're all just searching for some plausible explanation to a situation that makes no sense...

Based on his answers to the presser today looks like the latest excuse being trotted out is "like Ehlers better on the left side"

 

[surixon]

Based on his answers to the presser today looks like the latest excuse being trotted out is "like Ehlers better on the left side"

Put KC at RW then, solved lol

 

[Board Bard]

Scheifele hates fancy stats, perhaps because they illuminate how deficient he and his BFF Connor are as a combo in goal differential and other, analytical metrics -- gotta discredit anything that threatens the frickin' BFFdom. This is a picture of Scheifele "rebutting" the numbers:

That is also a picture of people who defend the combination because "where are we in the standings again?" and "Bowness has been a coach for 40 years and you're just some rando in a chat room."

 

[Jet]

Scheifele hates fancy stats, perhaps because they illuminate how deficient he and his BFF Connor are as a combo in goal differential and other, analytical metrics -- gotta discredit anything that threatens the frickin' BFFdom. This is a picture of Scheifele "rebutting" the numbers:

View attachment 829814

That is also a picture of people who defend the combination because "where are we in the standings again?" and "Bowness has been a coach for 40 years and you're just some rando in a chat room."

And here you are using nothing to promote your argument besides belittling others. Way to add to the debate.

 

[LowLefty]

Put KC at RW then, solved lol

The better solution would be to have them both play their correct wings - I'm sure you knew that.

 

[surixon]

The better solution would be to have them both play their correct wings - I'm sure you knew that.

My post was clearly sarcasim.

 

[LowLefty]

My post was clearly sarcasim.

But it clearly wasn't clear enough for the dumb guys though - maybe use of these
How does one know? There's a pile of posts in this thread that I could assume to be sarcasm but apparently are not

 

[surixon]

But it clearly wasn't clear enough for the dumb guys though - maybe use of these
How does one know? There's a pile of posts in this thread that I could assume to be sarcasm but apparently are not

Lol, I thought the lol at the end was sufficient.

But to answer your question, I think Fly is highly effective on his off wing. But playing him on the left is better for Rick who doesn't like Ehlers making those backhand passes through the nz.

 

[LowLefty]

Lol, I thought the lol at the end was sufficient.

But to answer your question, I think Fly is highly effective on his off wing. But playing him on the left is better for Rick who doesn't like Ehlers making those backhand passes through the nz.

Those backhand passes can be frightening - I get why he wants him on the left.
It's better for Nic too

 

[Board Bard]

And here you are using nothing to promote your argument besides belittling others. Way to add to the debate.

There are enough telling stats in this thread to fill a library and yet you still have your eyes closed and your ears plugged. You're not alone either. No amount of proof or common sense is going to convince the Connorites. As for "belittling," many of your posts start with something like "this is ludicrous" or some other more direct slur. I have seen anything you've added beyond Florida pics.

 

[Jet]

There are enough telling stats in this thread to fill a library and yet you still have your eyes closed and your ears plugged. You're not alone either. No amount of proof or common sense is going to convince the Connorites. As for "belittling," many of your posts start with something like "this is ludicrous" or some other more direct slur. I have seen anything you've added beyond Florida pics.

Saying I have my eyes closed and ears plugged just goes to show you have no idea what I've said about the whole debate.

I have an opposite opinion from @surixon on this subject, yet, we take turns READING each other's posts and making respectful counters to them.

That's why I come here, to read, debate, and learn. Not to have people cream their opinions down my throat or try to diminish others.

 

[Buffdog]

There are enough telling stats in this thread to fill a library and yet you still have your eyes closed and your ears plugged. You're not alone either. No amount of proof or common sense is going to convince the Connorites. As for "belittling," many of your posts start with something like "this is ludicrous" or some other more direct slur. I have seen anything you've added beyond Florida pics.

The most important stats in this thread are more minutes = less points for Ehlers

There's your answer

 

[DRW204]

Delete

 

[Board Bard]

That's why I come here, to read, debate, and learn. Not to have people cream their opinions down my throat or try to diminish others.

I assume your Freudian slip is supposed to be "cram their opinions." You repeatedly try to cram your opinions down others' throats and try to diminish them.

The most important stats in this thread are more minutes = less points for Ehlers

There's your answer

Whatever you say, Mrs. Connor.

 

[Buffdog]

I assume your Freudian slip is supposed to be "cram their opinions." You repeatedly try to cram your opinions down others' throats and try to diminish them.


Whatever you say, Mrs. Connor.

Stats are stats, dude. The org shares my thought on it. Maybe DM Chevy and Bones and see what happens

 

[Jet]

I assume your Freudian slip is supposed to be "cram their opinions." You repeatedly try to cram your opinions down others' throats and try to diminish them.


Whatever you say, Mrs. Connor.

Ohhhhhh you win for catching a typo.

See ya.

 

[DRW204]

trying to avoid another ehlers discussion takeover in another thread...

Garrett and a couple other stats guys around here used to talk about how quality of linemates is a bigger factor than quality of competition when it comes to scoring rates. If that's true I'd expect Ehlers' p/60 to be higher with Scheifele than away from him. Not sure if it is as I'm at work atm and can't check, but it wouldn't surprise me.

yeah evidently you'd estimate good players produce better w/ other good players than w/o. especially when you consider the alternatives... not trying to label stastny, PLD, etc are chopped liver, but i think everyone would agree scheifele is superior to all the other Cs or Fwd that Ehlers may have played with.

last 3 seasons, 5v5
ehlers:
850 mins with scheifele/42 5v5 pts/2.96 pts per 60
overall: 2307 mins/98 pts/2.55 pts per 60

similarly for scheifele
850 mins with ehlers/35 5v5 pts/2.47 pts per 60
overall: 3286 mins/111 pts/2.03 pts per 60

for reference; over the last 3 seasons - the best Jet in 5v5 pts/60 after ehlers is at 2.16 pts/60. so even w/o scheifele his pts per TOI id estimate still holds v well.

and by 5v5 GF vs GA (%) [GF/60]
ehlers with scheifele +24 (65%) [3.69 GF/60]
ehlers overall +48 (62%) [3.28 GF/60]
scheifele overall +14 (52%) [2.9 GF/60]

so a bit of a "yeah duhhh" his individual scoring rate along w/ his line's is v good with scheifele, but even w/o scheifele they still hold at a high level i would guess.

think another question or discussion point may be why is scheifele (& essentially the top-line) so much worse w/o Ehlers.

 

[Jack7222]

Not to stir the “stat guy” fan boys up too much but I find those stat guys dubious at best. Often they can’t explain what is happening just “the numbers are the numbers”. It’s not exactly a profound statement to say you look better with better players. Like duh.


In this case is Ehlers a line driver or not? You can’t call him a line driver then say “well he doesn’t get good enough line mates”.

Well, you were suggesting that Ehlers performs worse vs better quality of competition. Dale's specific 17+ minute outliers notwithstanding, it looks like Ehlers actually performs better vs better quality of competition, because of better quality of linemates. So I thought it was worth mentioning.

And I think you can be a line driver (Ehlers is what most would consider to be a line driver) and still have your production be affected by quality of linemates. Scheifele is a line driver as well and does better with Ehlers than without him, for example. More time in o-zone = more chances for good players to do good things.

 

[Gm0ney]

Not to stir the “stat guy” fan boys up too much but I find those stat guys dubious at best. Often they can’t explain what is happening just “the numbers are the numbers”. It’s not exactly a profound statement to say you look better with better players. Like duh.


In this case is Ehlers a line driver or not? You can’t call him a line driver then say “well he doesn’t get good enough line mates”.

I take "line driver" to mean a player who consistently tilts the ice in favor of his team when he's out there. You put Player X on a line and that line spends more time in the offensive zone, less time defending and that's reflected in Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, xG, etc. The better his linemates are, the more points his line should score. Take him off the line, and the results and metrics are worse. The line he's on now has better metrics and scoring though.

I don't know what there is to explain really. You give a line-driving player better teammates who can finish, then you get better goal differentials. You take a line driver away from good finishers and goal differentials get worse. The stats at least let you get a sense of the magnitude and where things might be going right or wrong.

 

[TS Quint]

I take "line driver" to mean a player who consistently tilts the ice in favor of his team when he's out there. You put Player X on a line and that line spends more time in the offensive zone, less time defending and that's reflected in Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, xG, etc. The better his linemates are, the more points his line should score. Take him off the line, and the results and metrics are worse. The line he's on now has better metrics and scoring though.

I don't know what there is to explain really. You give a line-driving player better teammates who can finish, then you get better goal differentials. You take a line driver away from good finishers and goal differentials get worse. The stats at least let you get a sense of the magnitude and where things might be going right or wrong.

So there is no advantage given to players against lesser competition?

I knew I would upset the HFgods (not you Gmoney) by saying anything less than praising the heavenly stat guys. It’s ridiculous you can’t have any other opinion.

 

[Gm0ney]

So there is no advantage given to players against lesser competition?

I knew I would upset the HFgods (not you Gmoney) by saying anything less than praising the heavenly stat guys.

I believe resident HF fancystatistician Garret's explanation was that linemates have more impact than competition. The difference in the quality of competition faced by the 2nd line vs. the 1st line will kind of wash out in the long run...

 

[Gm0ney]

The question was "How does he put up a higher PPG average in less time, than in games where he plays more?"

Just for reference, this was the information that I put at the beginning of that specific post.

Post-Game Talk: - Kraken 4 - Jets 3

I still say they are holding off announcing bad news until after the deadline. They have been very coy on him. You thinking out for the season? If that's the case Chevy definitely has to pick up a decent winger

forums.hfboards.com

Here are all of the games, when Ehlers played less than 17 minutes (below).

Goals: 120
Assists: 144
PPG: 0.78
Games: 338

Just to compare, vs whenever he played 17 minutes and up:

Goals: 74
Assists: 101
PPG: 0.72
Games: 244

We'll move past the wins/losses, but just zoom in on his PPG difference. He's putting higher point totals in less time. Which brings us back to the question, "How does he put up a higher PPG average in less time, than in games where he plays more?"

Also, can we start questioning the validity of P/60 as it applies (specifically) to Ehlers?

As you probably pointed out at some point, ignoring TOI for a moment, when Ehlers has a point, the Jets are much more likely to win. Since 2020-21, the Jets are 90-29-8, a .740 points percentage, a 121 point pace over 82 games when Ehlers has a point in a game.

When Ehlers doesn't have any points, the Jets are much more likely to lose. Since 2020-21, the Jets are 66-78-14, a .462 points percentage, a 76 point pace when Ehlers doesn't have a point in a game.

When the Jets are winning, Ehlers actually gets less TOI - because coaches don't trust him with the lead late in the 3rd in close games, and because they tend to roll all the lines more equitably when they have a big lead.

When the Jets are trailing, Ehlers gets more TOI. Because the 4th line's minutes are cut and given mostly to the 2nd line (because the 1st line already gets loads of ice time so there's not much room to add minutes there) and because Ehlers is often on the ice at 6v5 when the Jets are pushing to tie.

So if you put that all together, it's a pretty good explanation as to why Ehlers appears to score less with more minutes - it's because he's getting more minutes when he scores less, because the Jets are more often losing when he scores less; and when he scores more, the Jets are more likely winning and his minutes are reduced. QED!

 

[Buffdog]

As you probably pointed out at some point, ignoring TOI for a moment, when Ehlers has a point, the Jets are much more likely to win. Since 2020-21, the Jets are 90-29-8, a .740 points percentage, a 121 point pace over 82 games when Ehlers has a point in a game.

When Ehlers doesn't have any points, the Jets are much more likely to lose. Since 2020-21, the Jets are 66-78-14, a .462 points percentage, a 76 point pace when Ehlers doesn't have a point in a game.

When the Jets are winning, Ehlers actually gets less TOI - because coaches don't trust him with the lead late in the 3rd in close games, and because they tend to roll all the lines more equitably when they have a big lead.

When the Jets are trailing, Ehlers gets more TOI. Because the 4th line's minutes are cut and given mostly to the 2nd line (because the 1st line already gets loads of ice time so there's not much room to add minutes there) and because Ehlers is often on the ice at 6v5 when the Jets are pushing to tie.

So if you put that all together, it's a pretty good explanation as to why Ehlers appears to score less with more minutes - it's because he's getting more minutes when he scores less, because the Jets are more often losing when he scores less; and when he scores more, the Jets are more likely winning and his minutes are reduced. QED!

The flaw in that argument is that you've assumed that when the Jets win, they lead for a large (or at least significant) part of the game and vice versa when they lose.