Dreger: Edmonton Oilers Have Offers For Jordan Eberle, Trade Likely

[mazmin]

For all the Eberle haters, he's averaged 62 points for every 82 games since joining the NHL. That puts him in good company and means a lot in terms of value, especially considering he's 27 years old and that means he has 4-6 pretty good years left.

In the right situation (*COUGH-right-wing-with-Tavares*) he could reasonably get back to a 65-75 point pace and help his team win games.

That said, $6M/yr is steep, so his value won't be as high as it could be unless EDM eats $1-2M/yr.

 

[Paralyzer]

For all the Eberle haters, he's averaged 62 points for every 82 games since joining the NHL. That puts him in good company and means a lot in terms of value, especially considering he's 27 years old and that means he has 4-6 pretty good years left.

In the right situation (*COUGH-right-wing-with-Tavares*) he could reasonably get back to a 65-75 point pace and help his team win games.

That said, $6M/yr is steep, so his value won't be as high as it could be unless EDM eats $1-2M/yr.

Edmonton won't eat salary. They would be willing to take salary back for 1 year. That's all. After this year, we need to be careful with our cap. So eating it isn't an option. If we are eating it, we might as well keep Eberle for 1 more year. But I doubt the team wants to do that.

 

[TFHockey]

If a team can get a 60 point winger for less than $6 mill AAV as a UFA they're more than welcome to try.

There has been some rumblings that Eberle has asked for a trade because he doesn't want to be a "dead man walking". That's an interesting twist if true.

 

[Volica]

There's always a market for guys that can score.
Although their value is always a lot lower than anticipated.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

$6,000,000 is too rich for the Sens.

It's only a mil more than Brassard makes.

 

[ManofSteel55]

He hasn't been near 60 points in 2 years

He's only had two seasons under 60 total and he was on 56 point pace 2 years ago but had his only injury that kept him out of the lineup for an extended time in his career (and affected his production to start the year as he missed half of training camp and was playing with an injured wrist upon his return). Pace is good enough for me on a player who isn't injury prone, and 56 is pretty near to 60.

 

[Paralyzer]

It's only a mil more than Brassard makes.

And 1.25M less than Bobby Ryan

 

[50 in 07]

It's only a mil more than Brassard makes.

In real money, Brassard is making 3 million IIRC. With the Senators always have to consider money not cap hit.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Answer:

1. what else is he suppose to say.
2. He can still expose Eberle when he finds no takers in trade talks.
3. Cap space
4. Cap space is always valuable, as you can fill other holes.

Agreed, he isn't getting exposed if he is traded (retention/cap dump) before expansion. Other wise, be prepared.

We don't have to be prepared because it is a ridiculous scenario.

1. He sure as hell doesn't have to say that he has no problems bringing him back. PC is smart enough to talk around that question if he wasn't.
2. There have already been offers.
3. Cap space isn't a problem this year, and it would be smarter to keep him this season and try again to trade him next year. 1 season of 50-65 point play from Eberle and then buying him out if we don't find a taker is worth more than giving him away for free.
4. We can fill other holes by trading Eberle rather than giving him away for nothing.

 

[Donzo]

I can't find the graph, but Micah McCurdy ("Ineffective Math" on Twitter) did an interesting breakdown that suggested Eberle's not the perimeter player he's made out to be, i.e. most of his shots are from in tight.

It reminds me of when the Kings traded for Gaborik and someone showed the average shot location for Gaborik and the fact that most of his goals actually came from right in front of the goalie.

Anyway, Eberle makes a little too much, but not so much that he's a negative value contract. He'll probably get traded for a modest return.

 

[Homesick]

For all the Eberle haters, he's averaged 62 points for every 82 games since joining the NHL. That puts him in good company and means a lot in terms of value, especially considering he's 27 years old and that means he has 4-6 pretty good years left.

In the right situation (*COUGH-right-wing-with-Tavares*) he could reasonably get back to a 65-75 point pace and help his team win games.

That said, $6M/yr is steep, so his value won't be as high as it could be unless EDM eats $1-2M/yr.

Its not steep. Radulov, Eriksson, Ladd, Ryan, Pominville, Perry, and Okposo all make close to Eberle's salary and produced the same amount as Eberle did in a bad year.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I can't find the graph, but Micah McCurdy ("Ineffective Math" on Twitter) did an interesting breakdown that suggested Eberle's not the perimeter player he's made out to be, i.e. most of his shots are from in tight.

It reminds me of when the Kings traded for Gaborik and someone showed the average shot location for Gaborik and the fact that most of his goals actually came from right in front of the goalie.

Anyway, Eberle makes a little too much, but not so much that he's a negative value contract. He'll probably get traded for a modest return.

Eberle's biggest and most annoying flaw is when he goes into full 'French Maid' mode - dusting off everything in sight. It takes him forever to get a shot off.

Those calling him a perimeter player, though, are out to lunch.

 

[Lunatik]

He's only had two seasons under 60 total and he was on 56 point pace 2 years ago but had his only injury that kept him out of the lineup for an extended time in his career (and affected his production to start the year as he missed half of training camp and was playing with an injured wrist upon his return). Pace is good enough for me on a player who isn't injury prone, and 56 is pretty near to 60.

The two years with an elite center on the team, he couldn't increase or even match his previous his production and keep the #1 RW spot. You don't think that's a red flag just a little? HIs last 60 point season was 3 years ago, no NHL GM looks at him as a 60 point player anymore. He's got a bad contract and big holes in his game, stop pretending like he is this highly sought after talent. He's been ion the block for 2-3 years now and no one will ante up a decent price for a reason.

 

[ManofSteel55]

The two years with an elite center on the team, he couldn't increase or even match his previous his production and keep the #1 RW spot. You don't think that's a red flag just a little? HIs last 60 point season was 3 years ago, no NHL GM looks at him as a 60 point player anymore. He's got a bad contract and big holes in his game, stop pretending like he is this highly sought after talent. He's been ion the block for 2-3 years now and no one will ante up a decent price for a reason.

Considering that he wasn't playing much with that elite center, no I don't think its a red flag. Let's not forget that in the first year of the two both guys were injured at different times as well - they only had about 30 games on the active roster together in that season as Eberle started the year by missing 13 games and McDavid missed 37 games after Eberle was healthy.

Kessel is the best winger on Pittsburgh but doesn't play with Crosby. Teams spread around the talent to help get more scoring throughout the lineup. Not to mention that chemistry adds another element - nobody would suggest that Patrick Maroon is Edmonton's best LW, but he played most of the year in our #LW spot because of chemistry, and Draisaitl took off on that line when McLellan was mixing things up, so they kept with that line. Losing a spot to Leon Draisaitl of all people isn't really that big of a deal.

How many NHL GM's have you spoken to about Eberle? Can you enlighten us more on their opinions on him? And he hasn't been "on the block" for 3 years necessarily, at least not in the sense that you mean. We certainly haven't been trying to dump him. PC was open to trading anyone but McDavid and Draisaitl to fix our blueline. After the Hall/Larsson trade, they weren't trying nearly as hard to move Eberle. Or Nuge. Or draft picks. He was available. Lots of good players are. But don't try to make it sound like the Oilers have been desperate for anyone to take Eberle for three years, that isn't the case.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Eberle's biggest and most annoying flaw is when he goes into full 'French Maid' mode - dusting off everything in sight. It takes him forever to get a shot off.

Those calling him a perimeter player, though, are out to lunch.

Ok, I'm not sure if that's original to you or if I've just never heard it before, but I got a chuckle out of that.

 

[CodeE]

Eberle would be a risky trade for the Isles to make. The many flaws in his game have been discussed, and the fact is that Oiler fans have actively been trying to get rid of him for a couple years now.

Negative value? Don't believe it. If Eberle was available for a 7th rounder a bunch of teams would take the risk. Vegas too building a team from scratch should be interested.

But the fact is that there exists a world of difference between "nobody would trade a 7th" and "he'll be traded for Hamonic", it's not one or the other. And IMO the answer is that Eberle's value is pretty darn low. With the contract, the poor playoffs, the fact he looks lost in the current Oilers system, and the very real possibility that he won't magically get better like Schultz did, that he'll be as disappointing on my team as he was on the Oilers, like Yakupov.

I'd do Strome + Halak/Grabo/Kulemin to offset the cap hit. If you want a defenseman, it's centered around Hickey or Mayfield, not Hamonic, Pulock, or DeHaan. If you think you can get better value than that back, go right ahead and get it.

 

[LTIR]

Hamonic is the high end in terms of return... Strome the low end.
Oilers will get something in between...

as for the poster above: Strome+cap dump gets you Pouliot or Fayne..Not Eberle.

 

[Homesick]

Hamonic is the high end in terms of return... Strome the low end.
Oilers will get something in between...

as for the poster above: Strome+cap dump gets you Pouliot or Fayne..Not Eberle.

Wow you've thrown out some doozies lately

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Eberle would be a risky trade for the Isles to make. The many flaws in his game have been discussed, and the fact is that Oiler fans have actively been trying to get rid of him for a couple years now.

Negative value? Don't believe it. If Eberle was available for a 7th rounder a bunch of teams would take the risk. Vegas too building a team from scratch should be interested.

But the fact is that there exists a world of difference between "nobody would trade a 7th" and "he'll be traded for Hamonic", it's not one or the other. And IMO the answer is that Eberle's value is pretty darn low. With the contract, the poor playoffs, the fact he looks lost in the current Oilers system, and the very real possibility that he won't magically get better like Schultz did, that he'll be as disappointing on my team as he was on the Oilers, like Yakupov.

I'd do Strome + Halak/Grabo/Kulemin to offset the cap hit. If you want a defenseman, it's centered around Hickey or Mayfield, not Hamonic, Pulock, or DeHaan. If you think you can get better value than that back, go right ahead and get it.

Trades have to make sense for both teams, for sure, but I really don't see how a lesser plaayer in just about every way in Strome and a cap dump is going to make the Oilers a better team.

This isn't the same Oiler squad that was scratching and clawing to improve from 29th to 26th anymore, this is a team coming off of a 100+ point season and a fairly deep playoff run. Eberle had a tough playoffs to be sure, but even in a down year he managed 20 goals and 50 points.

I'm of the opinion that Edmonton shouldnt move Eberle unless it's for a player that makes the Oilers better and fills a gap, not a guy that's a downgrade but hey, he's cheaper, so yay I suppose? But, wait, by taking Halak/Grabo/Kulemin, we're not even shedding salary here.

Eberle has 45 goals in the last 2 seasons. Strome has 21. Eberle had one less goal in 82 games this season than Strome has had in his previous 140.

I dunno. I think the Isles can do better, and Dreger confirmed today that the Isles are one of the teams that are interested. Chiarelli should get a piece that makes sense long term and also fills a hole, even if it creates another one - Casey Cizikas, for example.

Eberle for Strome and a cap dump is just extremely poor.

 

[belair]

Eberle would be a risky trade for the Isles to make. The many flaws in his game have been discussed, and the fact is that Oiler fans have actively been trying to get rid of him for a couple years now.

Negative value? Don't believe it. If Eberle was available for a 7th rounder a bunch of teams would take the risk. Vegas too building a team from scratch should be interested.

But the fact is that there exists a world of difference between "nobody would trade a 7th" and "he'll be traded for Hamonic", it's not one or the other. And IMO the answer is that Eberle's value is pretty darn low. With the contract, the poor playoffs, the fact he looks lost in the current Oilers system, and the very real possibility that he won't magically get better like Schultz did, that he'll be as disappointing on my team as he was on the Oilers, like Yakupov.

I'd do Strome + Halak/Grabo/Kulemin to offset the cap hit. If you want a defenseman, it's centered around Hickey or Mayfield, not Hamonic, Pulock, or DeHaan. If you think you can get better value than that back, go right ahead and get it.

Strome, the cap dump and Dal Colle is where I think the value is good for both sides. Add a small sweetener from our end to even out the contracts.

Eberle is pretty consistent in terms of what he's going to give you. The longer leash you give him the bigger the risk, but the better the offensive results. There's no Yakupov, no Schultz. He's a 50 point forward minimum.

Strome has lost a lot of value and the fact he's going to be available for Vegas to take doesn't bode well for his value either. He's at a crossroads in his career where he's going to have to adjust his game or he's going to go the way of Sam Gagner, looking for an NHL roster spot for league minimum in one year.

If the Oilers balance the salaries out next year--or take on $1m, as offered here--Eberle is worth substantially more than Strome.

 

[iCanada]

Eberle would be a risky trade for the Isles to make. The many flaws in his game have been discussed, and the fact is that Oiler fans have actively been trying to get rid of him for a couple years now.

Negative value? Don't believe it. If Eberle was available for a 7th rounder a bunch of teams would take the risk. Vegas too building a team from scratch should be interested.

But the fact is that there exists a world of difference between "nobody would trade a 7th" and "he'll be traded for Hamonic", it's not one or the other. And IMO the answer is that Eberle's value is pretty darn low. With the contract, the poor playoffs, the fact he looks lost in the current Oilers system, and the very real possibility that he won't magically get better like Schultz did, that he'll be as disappointing on my team as he was on the Oilers, like Yakupov.

I'd do Strome + Halak/Grabo/Kulemin to offset the cap hit. If you want a defenseman, it's centered around Hickey or Mayfield, not Hamonic, Pulock, or DeHaan. If you think you can get better value than that back, go right ahead and get it.

I'm sure you would do strome + cap dump for Eberle. I wouldn't do that at all. Only think Strome has that's interesting compared to Eberle is cap. Otherwise he's half the player.... if I'm eating cap space too forget it.

I'd do Benning + Pouliot (with 50% retained) for Hamonic. Would you? Same trade proposed above; quality guy (top 4 / top6) for good but meh guy (acceptable top 4 / top6 injury replacement / step down) + cap dump. Salary is even a wash.

I'd rather buyout Eberle next year than trade him for strome + cap dump. Just awful.

 

[FightingIrish17]

The Oilers needs are: replace his 50 point production, 3C who can win draws, top 4D.

It seems to me that Elias Lindholm would be a good target for Edmonton. Covers most of Eberle's production, fills a 3C role (which makes RNH expendable for a top 4D), and is cheap. Additionally, Carolina can 1) take on salary; and 2) could use scoring help; and 3) afford to lose a centre

 

[Lunatik]

Pretty certain I didn't say that, but okay. Maybe someone else did? Or maybe I said it last year in the middle of the "Hamonic wants a trade out west" debates, but even then I'm pretty sure that any of my proposals for Hamonic involved more than Eberle alone. Or maybe I did, but I don't think so because I've been saying it would end up being an Eberle for a struggling player who needs a change of scenery since we were eliminated from the playoffs, and I don't consider Hamonic to be a struggling player who needs a change of scenery.

Things I have said:

- The Oilers won't have to retain 2 million to get a mid round draft pick.
- The Oilers won't have to expose Eberle in the expansion draft to move him
- The Oilers retaining $2 million would get us a good player in return.
- Eberle will go to a team needing scoring who has a hole in their top six RW
- Eberle's defensive play isn't as bad as it used to be, and is not as big of an issue as some on HF claim.

Going back, I actually misread a post you quoted and that caused this confusion. My bad man.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Eberle would be a risky trade for the Isles to make. The many flaws in his game have been discussed, and the fact is that Oiler fans have actively been trying to get rid of him for a couple years now.

Negative value? Don't believe it. If Eberle was available for a 7th rounder a bunch of teams would take the risk. Vegas too building a team from scratch should be interested.

But the fact is that there exists a world of difference between "nobody would trade a 7th" and "he'll be traded for Hamonic", it's not one or the other. And IMO the answer is that Eberle's value is pretty darn low. With the contract, the poor playoffs, the fact he looks lost in the current Oilers system, and the very real possibility that he won't magically get better like Schultz did, that he'll be as disappointing on my team as he was on the Oilers, like Yakupov.

I'd do Strome + Halak/Grabo/Kulemin to offset the cap hit. If you want a defenseman, it's centered around Hickey or Mayfield, not Hamonic, Pulock, or DeHaan. If you think you can get better value than that back, go right ahead and get it.

The bolded is what I take issue with. He developed his two way game. For this first half of the year, his offense suffered. He finished the regular season by putting up good numbers while playing good two way hockey. His playoffs sucked, although he was okay in the first round. I think that the chances that he rebounds is far more likely than the chances of him stagnating or regressing further.

There are a lot of Strome rumours floating around, so I wouldn't be shocked if that happens. If we're taking a cap dump to offset the cap hit though, you guys have to make it worth our while, I consider Eberle to be worth significantly more than Strome.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Going back, I actually misread a post you quoted and that caused this confusion. My bad man.

No worries, it happens.