Proposal: Edm - Tor: Let’s get wild

[CatchyTune]

Bear > Sandin
Nurse = Muzzin

Not seeing the downgrade. I do like Sandin’s upside though, but he’s just not as good as Bear as of today. We’re both in win now mode, and Bear is the better player right now.

I completely agree Bear would help a win now team right now, but from a trade value standpoint, Sandin has more value. I dont think anyone is trying to say Sandin is better as of today.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Thats literally his point. Thanks for making it easy for him. Every GM on the planet would trade Bear for Sandin.

Not Ken Holland.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Sandin also has a bit of a mean streak in him which I appreciate in D men. I was taught when I played growing up that D men need to have some physicality and nastiness, that part doesn’t get talked about with Sandin as much.

I can see why Leafs fans wouldn’t want to part with him because of his upside, but he’s not a better player than Bear right now. Both actually possess similar traits you like to see in the modern game. While undersized, both possess excellent hockey IQ and transition games. Bear is an absolute force on the breakout, the amount of times he’ll side step a forechecker and make a quick up ice pass on the breakout with the proper reads showed skills beyond his years of experience. Sandin has those same “quick processing” abilities as I call them in my viewings. He reads the game well.

In short, your logic makes sense even if Bear is the better player today. For us, we’d be losing a legitimate top 4 D man right now and Sandin wouldn’t be able to replicate what Bear brings at this moment in time. Maybe a few years from now, but he’s not as good as Bear as of now. Both have really good skill sets for this “speed and skill” era that we are in.

A point not being brought up is that Sandin has multiple years left on his ELC while Bear needs a new contract this summer.

While Sandin may not be better than Bear yet, he is also going to be paid significantly less than Bear and so shouldnt be expected to be a better player in a cap sense.

 

[CatchyTune]

Bear > Sandin
Nurse = Muzzin

Not seeing the downgrade. I do like Sandin’s upside though, but he’s just not as good as Bear as of today. We’re both in win now mode, and Bear is the better player right now.

Are we talking about currently, or going forward? Because players current ability dont always reflect their raw value in a trade. I think Muzzin is the best player out of the 4 players but arguably has the lowest value because he is 31.

Right now: Muzzin > Nurse > Bear > Sandin

5 years from now: Sandin > Bear > Nurse > Muzzin

Its hard to throw a 31 year old in with multiple players in their early 20's and try to gauge trade value.

 

[snipes]

I completely agree Bear would help a win now team right now, but from a trade value standpoint, Sandin has more value. I dont think anyone is trying to say Sandin is better as of today.

I guess a lot of it matters where a team is at right now. I know I wouldn’t trade Sandin for Bear 1 for 1 right now as we’re in win now mode. I shudder to think how bad our puck movement from the D would be without Bear. We’d be back to bank it off the glass and out by our D men when the forecheck arrives versus crisp breakouts to the 2nd or 3rd read under pressure.

If I were a rebuilding team like the Sens, my view might be different. Sandin has top 4/top pairing potential written all over him, but he isn’t there yet unlike Bear who is a legitimate top 4 D man right now.

I’m a big Sandin fan as well as I’m sure you can tell from my posts in this thread. He was who I wanted with our 2nd round pick in his draft year, it was an excellent pick by the Leafs to grab him at the end of the 1st.

Funny enough, both Bear and Sandin possess the same qualities that allow them to excel as undersized D men. Hockey IQ and puck moving ability.

 

[snipes]

Are we talking about currently, or going forward? Because players current ability dont always reflect their raw value in a trade. I think Muzzin is the best player out of the 4 players but arguably has the lowest value because he is 31.

Right now: Muzzin > Nurse > Bear > Sandin

5 years from now: Sandin > Bear > Nurse > Muzzin

Its hard to throw a 31 year old in with multiple players in their early 20's and try to gauge trade value.

That’s a fair point, I think the main consideration for the Oilers is “what helps us win right now?”.

 

[Chayos]

I am guessing it is because one of them is a 19 year old rookie coming of a World Juniors best defenceman award and the other is a 22 year old rookie 5th round pick who was never selected to play for his national team at any level.

Kind of a pedigree difference here...

So making Sweden’s team is just as difficult as making Team Canada on defence?

I would not put to much stock into WJC awards as prospects can tear it up there and still not be good in the NHL. The oilers had Jani Rita and Jesse Puljujarvi excel at WJC, and where are they now?

 

[TFHockey]

There is no chance the Oilers add Marner with his contract. Top winger but paid like it. Cannot afford.

Muzzin isn't better than Nurse. I see them as equal in value. Leaf fans who say otherwise are looking through homer glasses.

I don't see the Leafs targeting Nuge with his pending UFA status after next year.

 

[CatchyTune]

I guess a lot of it matters where a team is at right now. I know I wouldn’t trade Sandin for Bear 1 for 1 right now as we’re in win now mode. I shudder to think how bad our puck movement from the D would be without Bear. We’d be back to bank it off the glass and out by our D men when the forecheck arrives versus crisp breakouts to the 2nd or 3rd read under pressure.

If I were a rebuilding team like the Sens, my view might be different. Sandin has top 4/top pairing potential written all over him, but he isn’t there yet unlike Bear who is a legitimate top 4 D man right now.

I’m a big Sandin fan as well as I’m sure you can tell from my posts in this thread. He was who I wanted with our 2nd round pick in his draft year, it was an excellent pick by the Leafs to grab him at the end of the 1st.

Funny enough, both Bear and Sandin possess the same qualities that allow them to excel as undersized D men. Hockey IQ and puck moving ability.

That’s a fair point, I think the main consideration for the Oilers is “what helps us win right now?”.

That makes sense. Could say the same thing about Muzzin and Nurse. A win now team, like say Pittsburgh would probably take Muzzin but a "rebuilding team" opts for Nurse over a guy who is 31 and probably only has a few good years left.

Sandin has all the tools to become a top pairing defensemen, I think that is fair to say. The fact that he played in the NHL as a defensemen at 19 years old is crazy to me. Definitely the best D prospect ive seen since Rielly, and I think Sandin has the tools to be better than Rielly.

Bear is also a fine player. I would love him next to Rielly. Although Bear is nearly 23, and I dont think he has the same potential Sandin does. Bear is obviously "better" right now, but 2, 3, 5 years down the line I dont know if we will say the same.

 

[CatchyTune]

Not Ken Holland.

Can you PM me his phone number? You've obviously talked to him before, knowing that.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Can you PM me his phone number? You've obviously talked to him before, knowing that.

Haha fair enough.

It sounds like I’m way too low on Sandin. You Leafs fans would know better than me.

Out of curiosity, would you do this deal if he wasn’t included?

 

[snipes]

That makes sense. Could say the same thing about Muzzin and Nurse. A win now team, like say Pittsburgh would probably take Muzzin but a "rebuilding team" opts for Nurse over a guy who is 31 and probably only has a few good years left.

Sandin has all the tools to become a top pairing defensemen, I think that is fair to say. The fact that he played in the NHL as a defensemen at 19 years old is crazy to me. Definitely the best D prospect ive seen since Rielly, and I think Sandin has the tools to be better than Rielly.

Bear is also a fine player. I would love him next to Rielly. Although Bear is nearly 23, and I dont think he has the same potential Sandin does. Bear is obviously "better" right now, but 2, 3, 5 years down the line I dont know if we will say the same.

Good post, that’s the point I’m making. And the Muzzin vs. Nurse point makes sense for the same logic that applies to the Bear vs. Sandin. I could see a team like Pittsburgh or Washington preferring Muzzin for his playoff experience despite their abilities being essentially a wash. A “win now” team could prefer the more proven commodity.

I was just thinking about a Rielly-Bear pairing, with the style the Leafs play that would look awesome. Rielly is more of the carry the puck up ice himself the “puck transporter” as I call them, Bear is more of the “puck distributer” with his quick thinking and excellent breakout abilities. Those two would compliment each other so well, and Bear has proven he can handle heavy defensive matchups as he did all year paired with Nurse.

Despite Klefbom getting the PP1 minutes and being the lone D man on one of the best PP’s in the last 30 years, many of us who watch every Oiler game, myself included actually thought our PP looked better with Bear on the first unit when Klefbom went down. He just has the elite hockey IQ that you can easily recognize when you see him play, he makes the right reads and distributes the puck under pressure to the right player. Sandin has those same quick thinking qualities.

As I’ve liked Sandin back to his predraft days, where do you guys see him slotted in for the future long term?

 

[GOilers88]

Im all for moving Marner to re-shape the D, but the Leafs dont need to shake up their entire D. They literally only need a top pairing shutdown RHD. Their LHD depth is probably among the best in the league:

Rielly
Muzzin
Dermott
Sandin

If Marner is being dealt they'd want a similar aged RHD in a 1-for-1 deal, think along the lines of Parayko.



You know you are comparing 2 D with a 3 year difference in age right? For comparison Sandin is 6 months YOUNGER than Bouchard

So? One was clearly a far more impactful player than the other. They are both young rookies. Again people are using draft position as some sort of proof that Sandin is better. He clearly isn't right now. He very well could be better in the future but that's not what any of you said in previous pages. The repeated statement was Sandin > Bear which is flat out wrong.

 

[TOGuy14]

So making Sweden’s team is just as difficult as making Team Canada on defence?

I would not put to much stock into WJC awards as prospects can tear it up there and still not be good in the NHL. The oilers had Jani Rita and Jesse Puljujarvi excel at WJC, and where are they now?

While it isn't absolute there is a huge overlap between players who were selected as the best at the WJC and those that had very successful NHL careers:

List of IIHF World Under 20 Championship Directorate award winners - Wikipedia

On defence alone since 2005:

Phaneuf
M. Staal
E. Johnson
Doughty
Karlsson
Pietrangelo
Ellis
Gormley
Trouba
Risto
Gavrikov
Werenski
Chabot
Dahlin
Romanov
Sandin

That is a pretty stacked list...

 

[GOilers88]

Sorry, I was just trying to show a point here.
A lesser prospect for a young lesser dman (three year pro and is only 22).

But now you understand our incentive to not trade Sandin for Bear.

Sandin won the WJC defenceman of the tourney, WJC most points by a dman, AHL All Star, WJC All Star, the highest ppg for all players under 20 who played at least 20 games in the A, played in the nhl and looked great.

All at the age of 19.

He's a special prospect, and the leafs would be absolutely stupid to trade him.

The WJC is a 7 game tournament. It really doesn't mean shit.

 

[Merrrlin]

The WJC is a 7 game tournament. It really doesn't mean shit.

I guess you just ignored the rest?

I have concerns about Sandin, but there's no denying his excellent growth last year into a blue chipper.

The proposal was good for some laughs but honestly too big and unrealistic to really evaluate. Bear and Nurse don't interest me a whole lot, especially at the cost of 3 of our best assets moving forward.

AA is fun to watch but a bit like Kapanen - not sure he's really anything to write home about.

The 1st is currently in the 23-26 range which isn't very interesting in a deal like this. RNH is a good player but at 6m I am just not sure I really see the need.

 

[GOilers88]

Yes, because the first thing everyone looks at while comparing rookie defensemen is their point production.

One of these defensemen was 19 years old in his D+2 playing sheltered minutes.

The other was 22 in his D+5 playing top 4.

I easily, easily take Sandin going forward without thinking twice.

Again that's fine if you prefer potential over immediate impact. But that's what the whole argument is based on here. Sandin being a first round pick who has massive potential because he's still only 19, and Bear not having that same leeway because he was drafted in the fifth round.

To me the age doesn't mean shit. If a kid was drafted in the late rounds and out of absolutely nowhere elevated his game as a rookie to be reliably used in a top 4 role (Bear was probably the Oilers best dman behind Klef last year) I think he should be granted the same potential to continue to develop as the 19 year old kid being sheltered.

 

[GOilers88]

I guess you just ignored the rest?

I have concerns about Sandin, but there's no denying his excellent growth last year into a blue chipper.

The proposal was good for some laughs but honestly too big and unrealistic to really evaluate. Bear and Nurse don't interest me a whole lot, especially at the cost of 3 of our best assets moving forward.

AA is fun to watch but a bit like Kapanen - not sure he's really anything to write home about.

The 1st is currently in the 23-26 range which isn't very interesting in a deal like this. RNH is a good player but at 6m I am just not sure I really see the need.

I totally agree with you. I think the trade is crazy. But I don't agree with all the Sandin > Bear crap simply because Sandin is youger and somehow has far more potential to grow than a kid who came out of the fifth round and overnight turned himself into a legit top 4 defenseman as a rookie.

If we really want to pretend that 22 is so old that we can't expect much further development compared to 19 then I have to ask what the f*** are we even doing here.

 

[The Podium]

So? One was clearly a far more impactful player than the other. They are both young rookies. Again people are using draft position as some sort of proof that Sandin is better. He clearly isn't right now. He very well could be better in the future but that's not what any of you said in previous pages. The repeated statement was Sandin > Bear which is flat out wrong.

I think the OP was speaking in terms of value, what you are suggesting is akin to the poster who said that Dermott > Bouchard. Clearly that is true as Dermott is an NHL regular playing as a #4/5, but obviously Bouchard is more valuable.

The age comparison is similar as well with Dermott being 34 months older than Bouchard while Bear is 33 months older than Sandin.

 

[Merrrlin]

I totally agree with you. I think the trade is crazy. But I don't agree with all the Sandin > Bear crap simply because Sandin is youger and somehow has far more potential to grow than a kid who came out of the fifth round and overnight turned himself into a legit top 4 defenseman as a rookie.

If we really want to pretend that 22 is so old that we can't expect much further development compared to 19 then I have to ask what the f*** are we even doing here.

Well, I mean 3 years is not a small difference. Especially for defencemen, for whatever reason.

Bear is a good player, but he's very different from Sandin. He's safer, but I don't see the skillset to move up in the lineup. I know he was good in Seattle as an overager but I don't see it translating to more than 30ish points. We'll see if it translates for Sandin but it looks like it will, offensively at least.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

In what world is this horrible for the leafs?

Marner is much better than RNH (granted RNH has been a PPG guy himself at wing).
Nurse is more valuable than Muzzin. Muzzin is better defensively but Nurse is better offensively and is 6 years younger. Both are physical.
Bear is currently better than Sandin, even if Sandin has potential, so does Bear. Not to mention both teams need RHD, not LHD.

Mikeyhev is whatever. Way to small of a sample size to know what going on here, I woukldnt be interested in trading assets for him.

So the Oilers give up their last year 8th overall dman (who projects to be a top pairing guy), their 2020 1st round pick, and AA who they just paid 2 2nd for, for what exactly? All that to bridge the gap between RNH and Marner?

I'd much rather give RNH an 8 x 5 contract than trade a ton of assets for Marner who costs over 10 million. If RNH maintains 70+ point play this isn't even close to worth it.


Funny that Toronto fans insist the they are the ones losing this trade, when it's not even close. Terms of pure assets they win, terms of team fit they win.
OP thought this was a good idea to find a running mate for McDavid. But not at the price of Draisaitl's running mate, 2 of their young top 4 defensemen, their top defensive prospect, a middle 6 winger and their 1st.

 

[CatchyTune]

Haha fair enough.

It sounds like I’m way too low on Sandin. You Leafs fans would know better than me.

Out of curiosity, would you do this deal if he wasn’t included?

Sandin completely removed? Thats still a tough one. It would pain me to move Marner (and Muzzin/Mikheyev) for quantity. I would only move Marner for a similar aged/skilled Dman.

Not saying the value is off, just the collection of pieces are to scattered in interest for me. No interest in Nuge/AA, the leafs would also not value Broberg/1st as high as a rebuilding team would. So I would probably stand pat with Marner or move for a better Dman.

 

[The Podium]

In what world is this horrible for the leafs?

Marner is much better than RNH (granted RNH has been a PPG guy himself at wing).
Nurse is more valuable than Muzzin. Muzzin is better defensively but Nurse is better offensively and is 6 years younger. Both are physical.
Bear is currently better than Sandin, even if Sandin has potential, so does Bear. Not to mention both teams need RHD, not LHD.

Mikeyhev is whatever. Way to small of a sample size to know what going on here, I woukldnt be interested in trading assets for him.

So the Oilers give up their last year 8th overall dman (who projects to be a top pairing guy), their 2020 1st round pick, and AA who they just paid 2 2nd for, for what exactly? All that to bridge the gap between RNH and Marner?

I'd much rather give RNH an 8 x 5 contract than trade a ton of assets for Marner who costs over 10 million. If RNH maintains 70+ point play this isn't even close to worth it.


Funny that Toronto fans insist the they are the ones losing this trade, when it's not even close. Terms of pure assets they win, terms of team fit they win.
OP thought this was a good idea to find a running mate for McDavid. But not at the price of Draisaitl's running mate, 2 of their young top 4 defensemen, their top defensive prospect, a middle 6 winger and their 1st.

Toronto fans never questioned value, rather the fit:
a) We need Muzzin more than we need Nurse despite the difference in value. We need a defensive stalwart and character guy on the backend that knows what it takes to win.

b) Bear might be currently better, but Sandin has more potential and holds more value.

c) Mikheyev is a solid two-way top 9 forward. He adds size and defensive acumen to a forward core that lacks in those areas. His value is around the same as AA so thats a wash but his QO will be significantly less and his relationship with Dubas will have him signed for much cheaper.

d) The Leafs have no interest in re-signing RNH to be a 3rd line C for what will likely be 7-8 mill

e) Broberg is the best asset coming Torontos way, the late 1st doesnt hurt either

 

[CatchyTune]

Good post, that’s the point I’m making. And the Muzzin vs. Nurse point makes sense for the same logic that applies to the Bear vs. Sandin. I could see a team like Pittsburgh or Washington preferring Muzzin for his playoff experience despite their abilities being essentially a wash. A “win now” team could prefer the more proven commodity.

I was just thinking about a Rielly-Bear pairing, with the style the Leafs play that would look awesome. Rielly is more of the carry the puck up ice himself the “puck transporter” as I call them, Bear is more of the “puck distributer” with his quick thinking and excellent breakout abilities. Those two would compliment each other so well, and Bear has proven he can handle heavy defensive matchups as he did all year paired with Nurse.

Despite Klefbom getting the PP1 minutes and being the lone D man on one of the best PP’s in the last 30 years, many of us who watch every Oiler game, myself included actually thought our PP looked better with Bear on the first unit when Klefbom went down. He just has the elite hockey IQ that you can easily recognize when you see him play, he makes the right reads and distributes the puck under pressure to the right player. Sandin has those same quick thinking qualities.

As I’ve liked Sandin back to his predraft days, where do you guys see him slotted in for the future long term?

Bear would be awesome with Rielly. The fact that Morgan put up 72 points with Ron Hainsey as his partner is kinda crazy, I would love to get him a legit partner.

He has never really had one, Hainsey, Zaitsev, I think Holl and Ceci each had some time with him. Barrie was a tire fire with the leafs and shouldnt be anywhere near Rielly. Their 1st priority should be (and probably is) to get Rielly a defensively responsible partner, because we all know what Rielly can do with the puck. Someone like Pesce is the pipe dream. Bear would also be awesome given his age, handedness, and ability to grow given he was a rookie.

Its hard to judge Sandin given him being so young and his little time in the NHL. Although not many Dmen play in the big leagues at 19 at all. I truly believe he can be a legit top pair guy if he develops to his true potential. And I think most leafs fans would agree with me. I dont think i'm overrating him in saying so, he is a special young player.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Toronto fans never questioned value, rather the fit:
a) We need Muzzin more than we need Nurse despite the difference in value. We need a defensive stalwart and character guy on the backend that knows what it takes to win.

b) Bear might be currently better, but Sandin has more potential and holds more value.

c) Mikheyev is a solid two-way top 9 forward. He adds size and defensive acumen to a forward core that lacks in those areas. His value is around the same as AA so thats a wash but his QO will be significantly less and his relationship with Dubas will have him signed for much cheaper.

d) The Leafs have no interest in re-signing RNH to be a 3rd line C for what will likely be 7-8 mill

e) Broberg is the best asset coming Torontos way, the late 1st doesnt hurt either

I agree with the bolded.
Bear is a top 4 RHD, for that reason alone I think he holds more value. Even if Sandin hits ceiling it'll be hard to play on either his off hand or on bottom pairing.

RNH would replace Marner as a winger. He had a better season than Nylander, frankly he'd be your new best winger and would absolutely play in the top 6. No coach would stick a PPG forward on the 3rd line.