ECSF: Toronto Maple Leafs (A2) vs. Florida Panthers (WC2) ( Florida Leads 3-1 )

[Summer Rose]

I think you read the statistics wrong.

The Leafs are the favourites to win Game 5, there's no way the favourites would have a 28.5% chance. I'm not sure what statistics you're looking at, but there's no way it's 28.5% for only Game 5, maybe for the series.

I was reading the statistic that teams that go down 0-3 in the series are 22-54 in game 5 (assuming they force one), historically.

 

[Dotter]

Where's the spin? Last game is over with, the series is 3-1. Florida just came back from 3-1 against Boston.

Not how it works, Hoss. Lol

If coming back from a 0-3 deficit is so easy, then why have only 4 teams in NHL history have done it? I'm sure many teams in the history of the NHL that were down 0-3 won a game or two, and still came up short.. obviously.

FACT: they were 0-3. Leafs, who never swept a team in modern history, need a Disney's Miracle on Ice... 3 more times.

 

[Divine]

I was reading the statistic that teams that go down 0-3 in the series are 22-54 in game 5 (assuming they force one), historically.

You took general statistics and applied it to the Leafs. Those aren't the Leafs chances, those are historical odds for all teams down 3-0 forcing 3-1.

The individual statistics for Game 5 is actually the Leafs have a 63.6% chance to win Game 5 currently.

 

[Summer Rose]

You took general statistics and applied it to the Leafs. Those aren't the Leafs chances, those are historical odds for all teams down 3-0.

The individual statistics for Game 5 is actually the Leafs have a 63.6% chance to win Game 5 currently.

Fair enough, yes.

 

[authentic]

Not how it works, Hoss. Lol

If coming back from a 0-3 deficit is so easy, then why have only 4 teams in NHL history have done it? I'm sure many teams in the history of the NHL that were down 0-3 won a game or two, and still came up short.. obviously.

FACT: they were 0-3. Leafs, who never swept a team in modern history, need a Disney's Miracle on Ice... 3 more times.

 

[Divine]

Not how it works, Hoss. Lol

If coming back from a 0-3 deficit is so easy, then why have only 4 teams in NHL history have done it? I'm sure many teams in the history of the NHL that were down 0-3 won a game or two, and still came up short.. obviously.

FACT: they were 0-3. Leafs, who never swept a team in modern history, need a Disney's Miracle on Ice... 3 more times.

How many teams have come back down 3-1?

When you include all the 0-3 teams, you're also including all the teams that never made it to Game 5. The Leafs are not one of those teams.

I'm not saying that it's easy or even likely, but it's not the only 4 teams situation anymore either. The Leafs are now coming back from a 3-1 series, not a 3-0 series... significantly increasing the odds although they are still quite low.

 

[AvroArrow]

How many teams have come back down 3-1?

When you include all the 0-3 teams, you're also including all the teams that never made it to Game 5. The Leafs are not one of those teams.

I'm not saying that it's easy or even likely, but it's not the only 4 teams situation anymore either. The Leafs are now coming back from a 3-1 series, not a 3-0 series... significantly increasing the odds although they are still quite low.

31 teams have come back from down 3-1. Including the very same Florida Panthers we are against, who did it against Boston last round.

Not how it works, Hoss. Lol

If coming back from a 0-3 deficit is so easy, then why have only 4 teams in NHL history have done it? I'm sure many teams in the history of the NHL that were down 0-3 won a game or two, and still came up short.. obviously.

FACT: they were 0-3. Leafs, who never swept a team in modern history, need a Disney's Miracle on Ice... 3 more times.

Who said it was easy ? lol

 

[Mathews28]

The hit on Reilly was legal though. Maybe unnecessary given two seconds left but still a hockey play. I don't disagree that the Leafs were warranted in responding, but the Leafs fan I responded to who was crying about Florida gooning it up is conveniently ignoring that the Leafs were the ones who escalated that situation outside the context of a normal hockey play.

I guess some Leafs fans would be crying if no one stood up for Reilly. So either way we'll get some whiney Leafs fans on here.

I hear you. And if my team is losing in closing seconds I’m ok too with a hard check within the rules. And I expect the other team to respond. Just part of the game. Fans should roll with it too.

 

[Dotter]

How many teams have come back down 3-1?

When you include all the 0-3 teams, you're also including all the teams that never made it to Game 5. The Leafs are not one of those teams.

I'm not saying that it's easy or even likely, but it's not the only 4 teams situation anymore either. The Leafs are now coming back from a 3-1 series, not a 3-0 series... significantly increasing the odds although they are still quite low.

The true question is how many teams started with an 0-3 deficit, won one game to make it 1-3 then go on to win the series in the best of 7?

Answer: out of 204, only 4 came back.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Not how it works, Hoss. Lol

If coming back from a 0-3 deficit is so easy, then why have only 4 teams in NHL history have done it? I'm sure many teams in the history of the NHL that were down 0-3 won a game or two, and still came up short.. obviously.

FACT: they were 0-3. Leafs, who never swept a team in modern history, need a Disney's Miracle on Ice... 3 more times.

Uh they swept Ottawa?

 

[Divine]

The true question is how many teams started with an 0-3 deficit, won one game to make it 1-3 then go on to win the series in the best of 7?

Answer: out of 204, only 4 came back.

Where are you getting these odds?

I don't understand why the odds would be different if a team is down 3-1 after winning Game 1, 2 or 3 versus if a team is down 3-1 after winning Game 4.

You're arguing that Florida was more likely to beat Boston because they won Game 2 when they were down 3-1, instead of Game 4. That doesn't make sense to me.

 

[jcs0218]

To anyone complaining about what Bennett did after the final buzzer went last game, what are your thoughts about what a Maple Leafs player (#50-something, can't tell who it was) did to a Panthers player.

Watch around the 0:10 mark here. A player on the Maple Leafs, #50-something, skated several strides and then cross-checked a Panthers player in the head against the glass.

Please be honest, and don't say "that wasn't dirty", because it was very dirty.

What player was that on the Maple Leafs? I see that Bunting, Giordano, and Acciari all wear #50-something.

 

[Ratsreign]

To anyone complaining about what Bennett did after the final buzzer went last game, what are your thoughts about what a Maple Leafs player (#50-something, can't tell who it was) did to a Panthers player.

Watch around the 0:10 mark here. A player on the Maple Leafs, #50-something, skated several strides and then cross-checked a Panthers player in the head against the glass.

Please be honest, and don't say "that wasn't dirty", because it was very dirty.

What player was that on the Maple Leafs? I see that Bunting, Giordano, and Acciari all wear #50-something.

Lollol must be pretty damm bad, “age restricted”

 

[jcs0218]

Lollol must be pretty damm bad, “age restricted”

It makes no sense. It is a video on Sportsnet's official YouTube channel.

Are they not wanting children to see violence in hockey?

Here is another video of it at 0:03 (this has some random person talking in the background).

It looks like a cross-check with the stick to the head of a Panthers player whose head bounced off the glass after contact.

 

[Dotter]

Where are you getting these odds?

I don't understand why the odds would be different if a team is down 3-1 after winning Game 1, 2 or 3 versus if a team is down 3-1 after winning Game 4.

You're arguing that Florida was more likely to beat Boston because they won Game 2 when they were down 3-1, instead of Game 4. That doesn't make sense to me.

Because they are forced to win 4 games in a row against a team that has their number. This TML team can't win 4 games in a row against FL.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The play is dead as soon as he touches the puck, if the leafs scored there, it wouldn’t have counted.

That hit is disgustingly late, and absolutely suspendible.

Do you have the Omar video, of the ref knee passing the puck to Nylander for a goal. Looking forward to seeing that one.

 

[Divine]

Because they are forced to win 4 games in a row against a team that has their number. This TML team can't win 4 games in a row against FL.

They no longer have to win 4 in a row. They now have to win 3 in a row. The 4th game cannot change anymore as it's already been played.

That said, obviously you've predicted they can't do it.

The Leafs are one of the rare teams that won 4 games in a row after being down 3-0 against a team that 'has their number'.

 

[jcs0218]

Florida has to be concerned about the Toronto Maple Leafs complete refusal to die.

Tampa Bay had them down 3-2 in game 3 with 1 minute to go, and Toronto refused to die.

Tampa Bay had them down 4-1 in game 4 with 1 period to go, and Toronto refused to die.

Last night in game 3, Florida had them down 3-0 in the series, and Toronto refused to die.

I know Florida is still up 3-1 in the series, but I have doubts that they will be able to finally kill the Maple Leafs.

 

[Golden_Jet]

How many teams have come back down 3-1?

When you include all the 0-3 teams, you're also including all the teams that never made it to Game 5. The Leafs are not one of those teams.

I'm not saying that it's easy or even likely, but it's not the only 4 teams situation anymore either. The Leafs are now coming back from a 3-1 series, not a 3-0 series... significantly increasing the odds although they are still quite low.

but your 3-1 odds are not including the ones that started as 0-3.

 

[Ratsreign]

To anyone complaining about what Bennett did after the final buzzer went last game, what are your thoughts about what a Maple Leafs player (#50-something, can't tell who it was) did to a Panthers player.

Watch around the 0:10 mark here. A player on the Maple Leafs, #50-something, skated several strides and then cross-checked a Panthers player in the head against the glass.

Please be honest, and don't say "that wasn't dirty", because it was very dirty.

What player was that on the Maple Leafs? I see that Bunting, Giordano, and Acciari all wear #50-something.

just speculating here, but was player 50-something the one Bennett was going after? Playoff hockey. Some act like they’ve never seen anything like it before.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Florida has to be concerned about the Toronto Maple Leafs complete refusal to die.

Tampa Bay had them down 3-2 in game 3 with 1 minute to go, and Toronto refused to die.

Tampa Bay had them down 4-1 in game 4 with 1 period to go, and Toronto refused to die.

Last night in game 3, Florida had them down 3-0 in the series, and Toronto refused to die.

I know Florida is still up 3-1 in the series, but I have doubts that they will be able to finally kill the Maple Leafs.

That’s not refusing to die, that’s not playing a 60 minute game, that’s trying to comeback in the third because there was no heart for 40 minutes.

 

[Divine]

but your 3-1 odds are not including the ones that started as 0-3.

That shouldn't matter.

A 3-1 series where one team wins Game 4 is not inherently different than a 3-1 series where a team wins Game 1 or 2 or 3.

 

[Ratsreign]

They no longer have to win 4 in a row. They now have to win 3 in a row. The 4th game cannot change anymore as it's already been played.

That said, obviously you've predicted they can't do it.

The Leafs are one of the rare teams that won 4 games in a row after being down 3-0 against a team that 'has their number'.

Yep, during WW2.....
I do agree that it could happen, though.

 

[Leaf Fans]

FACT: they were 0-3. Leafs, who never swept a team in modern history, need a Disney's Miracle on Ice... 3 more times.

It is not factual that the Leafs will play the 1980 Soviet Olympic teams. The Fact is Toronto needs 3 more wins against a very tough opponent and they have to accomplish this without losing a game.

 

[Golden_Jet]

That shouldn't matter.

A 3-1 series where one team wins Game 4 is not inherently different than a 3-1 series where a team wins Game 1 or 2 or 3.

Current probability if you believe the leafs have a 60% chance of winning every game.
With 3 games to go
60% x 0.6 x 0.6 = 21.6% chance of winning the series now.