Series Discussion: ECQF: Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs. (LEAF FANS READ OP & POST 67)

[FloridaCap]

Yes! That was all I was looking for - some semblance of possible good fortune seen in the stats.

In this case I see the Corsi stats as misleading.

Leafs are getting very good chances off the rush that Holtby is stopping, while most of our shots generated are from extreme angles off a brief cycle.

But I'm somewhat confident that can change!

 

[Kegger]

In this case I see the Corsi stats as misleading.

Leafs are getting very good chances off the rush that Holtby is stopping, while most of our shots generated are from extreme angles off a brief cycle.

But I'm somewhat confident that can change!

Agree. Im not usually big on the "luck" stats but the PDO indeed stands out. Caps on the season 1.02 (Toronto 1.0) and in the first 3 games here its been Caps 0.96 (Toronto 1.04). This somewhat includes the perimeter shooting theory.

 

[g00n]

getting rebounds. setting screens. the same **** that has been part of playoff hockey for decades. don't need any stats to see this.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm with you man. Only official jersey i have is a 92-93 bondra jersey. That said laid to rest my mom this past saturday so even that montreal series seems like nothing.

Sorry man, heart breaking.

 

[twabby]

Advanced stats inquiry, do they show anything of interest thus far in the series? Or is everything the proverbial coin flip, as per usual.

The most obvious thing that stands out is that the Matthews line is absolutely killing it in terms of possession: 67% CF% and 72% xGF%, both of which are score and zone-adjusted.

The problem I see is that Trotz still thinks for whatever reason that Carlson is a shutdown defenseman. The Matthews line has destroyed the 27-74 and 88-74 pairings while pretty much breaking even with the other two pairings. If Trotz insists on Carlson being the shutdown defenseman (which is even more curious now that he's paired with the supposed 7th best defenseman on the roster), then I think the results are going to be similar again.

I think it's time to play Orlov and Niskanen close to 30 minutes tonight, including the tough minutes, and split the remaining minutes between the other two pairings. Play your best players the most, and that includes on defense. Right now Carlson isn't one of those players. Babcock is playing Gardiner and Reilly a ton and barely giving ice time to Carrick, for instance. Perhaps the Capitals should be doing the same sort of ice time distribution with their defensemen.

 

[FloridaCap]

The most obvious thing that stands out is that the Matthews line is absolutely killing it in terms of possession: 67% CF% and 72% xGF%, both of which are score and zone-adjusted.

The problem I see is that Trotz still thinks for whatever reason that Carlson is a shutdown defenseman. The Matthews line has destroyed the 27-74 and 88-74 pairings while pretty much breaking even with the other two pairings. If Trotz insists on Carlson being the shutdown defenseman (which is even more curious now that he's paired with the supposed 7th best defenseman on the roster), then I think the results are going to be similar again.

I think it's time to play Orlov and Niskanen close to 30 minutes tonight, including the tough minutes, and split the remaining minutes between the other two pairings. Play your best players the most, and that includes on defense. Right now Carlson isn't one of those players.

I agree. Not only are 2-9 our best defensemen, they're 2 of our 3 FASTEST defensemen, and that's what the Matthews line lives on.

We need to shorten the bench a little bit. Toronto isn't that physical, we shouldn't have to fear it. Play 2-9 more, play 8-19-77 more. Enough with this 4th line ********.

and he had a rough game last game, but Shattenkirk needs to see a ton of ice time. The less 74, 44, etc., the better.

 

[Tweedsuitcase]

wouldn't have guessed we'd be at a "must win" game in game four of this series.
Hasn't been Holtby's "fault" but is it too much to ask for him to steal a game for us?

 

[kicksavedave]

wouldn't have guessed we'd be at a "must win" game in game four of this series.
Hasn't been Holtby's "fault" but is it too much to ask for him to steal a game for us?

While I wouldn't pin this whole thing on Hotlby just yet, he certainly hasn't been good for 60 minutes either, and sometimes he's be awful. Over aggressive and getting out of position. And his defense hasn't been any help either.

See this:

Just embarrassing!

Finally, while Holtby has/had really good overall GAA/SV% numbers in the playoffs, he's rarely stepped up and stolen a game or a period when we needed him to. He's got four shutouts in the playoffs, and I believe they're all in games 1-3. He's not been good in elimination games, either for or against, when we REALLY needed him to steal one.

Basically, Holtby is like the entire franchise - Accumulates lots of numbers in easy situations (like the RS) but chokes under the big pressure.

 

[g00n]

I'm with you man. Only official jersey i have is a 92-93 bondra jersey. That said laid to rest my mom this past saturday so even that montreal series seems like nothing.

Missed this post earlier while reading here at work. Very sorry to hear this, usiel.

 

[RandyHolt]

The most obvious thing that stands out is that the Matthews line is absolutely killing it in terms of possession: 67% CF% and 72% xGF%, both of which are score and zone-adjusted.

....

Great post, thanks for sharing. I figured something must be sticking out. I suspected there are certain matchups that are killing us. What do you know, it's their top line, which should be the first thing Barry looks at when trying to slow them down.

Broken record alert I like to see a coach at home try to match lines. We played 82 freaking games to get home ice and find ourselves in a coin flip series, but don't utilize one of the biggest advantages of home ice.

At least try for a period or 2, so for game 7 he has a 6 game sample size to learn from. It doesn't have to be forwards of course, he can get D out vs top guns, like teams have done to Ovi for his entire career.

I once envisioned Karl and Carl as our top pair for the future. Sigh.

 

[FloridaCap]

While I wouldn't pin this whole thing on Hotlby just yet, he certainly hasn't been good for 60 minutes either, and sometimes he's be awful. Over aggressive and getting out of position. And his defense hasn't been any help either.

See this:

Just embarrassing!

Finally, while Holtby has/had really good overall GAA/SV% numbers in the playoffs, he's rarely stepped up and stolen a game or a period when we needed him to. He's got four shutouts in the playoffs, and I believe they're all in games 1-3. He's not been good in elimination games, either for or against, when we REALLY needed him to steal one.

Basically, Holtby is like the entire franchise - Accumulates lots of numbers in easy situations (like the RS) but chokes under the big pressure.

oh come on, prior to that goal the guy was ALL ALONE in front and Holtby sold out to make the save, hoping that his defensemen would actually do their job on any potential rebound considering they were conveniently MIA on the initial chance.

 

[kicksavedave]

oh come on, prior to that goal the guy was ALL ALONE in front and Holtby sold out to make the save, hoping that his defensemen would actually do their job on any potential rebound considering they were conveniently MIA on the initial chance.

It was terrible defense for sure, but Holtby "sold out" by flopping onto his belly, giving him zero chance to make a second save. He hasn't been great, he hasn't stolen anything, he's gotten himself out of position more times than just the image above. When Holtby is on his game, he's controlled, calm, he vacuums up rebounds. Right now he's playing frenetic and the results show.

Not singling him out here, the entire team is playing much worse than their regular season performance capability. Highlighting Tweeds original point, is it too much to ask him to steal a game? When was the last time he "stole" a playoff game, like so many goalies have done to us?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I see the same old Holtby. Strong play, but not stealing games. Anderson is stealing games right now IMO. I'd like to see Holtby go Ron Hextall circa-1986-87 and put in a Conn Smythe-level performance. I personally think that's what it's going to take for the Caps to win a Cup.

 

[g00n]

It was terrible defense for sure, but Holtby "sold out" by flopping onto his belly, giving him zero chance to make a second save. He hasn't been great, he hasn't stolen anything, he's gotten himself out of position more times than just the image above. When Holtby is on his game, he's controlled, calm, he vacuums up rebounds. Right now he's playing frenetic and the results show.

Not singling him out here, the entire team is playing much worse than their regular season performance capability. Highlighting Tweeds original point, is it too much to ask him to steal a game? When was the last time he "stole" a playoff game, like so many goalies have done to us?

He was taken out by Burakovsky, who may have actually knocked the puck loose on the first save. He didn't flop.

 

[kicksavedave]

I see the same old Holtby. Strong play, but not stealing games. Anderson is stealing games right now IMO. I'd like to see Holtby go Ron Hextall circa-1986-87 and put in a Conn Smythe-level performance. I personally think that's what it's going to take for the Caps to win a Cup.

Agreed, except I'd have referenced Olie, 97-98

 

[kicksavedave]

He was taken out by Burakovsky, who may have actually knocked the puck loose on the first save. He didn't flop.

He was well on his way out of position when Bura hits him, he had no chance to make a second save even if Bura never touches him. He's falling to his right and reaches out to his left to get a glove on it, but even if Bura isn't there he's well out of position on that rebound. He's just not playing calm and under control like he does when he's on his game. He's sliding side to side out of position way more than normal when he's on.

 

[g00n]

He was well on his way out of position when Bura hits him, he had no chance to make a second save even if Bura never touches him. He's falling to his right and reaches out to his left to get a glove on it, but even if Bura isn't there he's well out of position on that rebound. He's just not playing calm and under control like he does when he's on his game. He's sliding side to side out of position way more than normal when he's on.

He had a chance to control the puck and make a great save until Bura hit him. He had to make a drastic move to deal with the crap situation his teammates put him in.

People are also forgetting a lot of the big saves he made in each game, as usual. Maybe another goaltender doesn't make those. We only see the ones that go in and then pick them apart.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Goon, nobody is forgetting the incredible saves he does make, but this team needs more from him to win the Cup. I have zero doubt in that fact. A pretty damn good Holtby isn't likely enough with this roster of mental midgets. They need the GREAT Holtby IMO.

 

[vippe]

Holtby doesnt even need to steal a game even though that would be nice.

He just needs to play good enough which he isnt, make a few non routine saves that Anderssen is doing. That said, the skaters arent playing well enough either and it's not Holtbys fault it's 2-1 for the Leafs.

 

[kicksavedave]

Goon, nobody is forgetting the incredible saves he does make, but this team needs more from him to win this series. I have zero doubt in that fact. A pretty damn good Holtby isn't likely enough with this roster of mental midgets. They need the GREAT Holtby IMO.

This.

 

[trick9]

I wouldn't buy that much into watch Trotz is telling to the media. He's taking the pressure away from his star player because taking the blame there himself is much better tactic than actually going out and saying that the reason Ovechkin is not playing more is because he doesn't really deserve to.

Trotz has rewarded guys for good shifts through ice-time his entire career (and on the flip side, took it away from guys who didn't deserve the ice). He didn't just suddenly change now but he's not going to throw his captain under the bus either. Ovechkin isn't an center either so his ice-time shouldn't be affected because the coach wants his best FO guy to take draws.

 

[FloridaCap]

I wouldn't buy that much into watch Trotz is telling to the media. He's taking the pressure away from his star player because taking the blame there himself is much better tactic than actually going out and saying that the reason Ovechkin is not playing more is because he doesn't really deserve to.

Trotz has rewarded guys for good shifts through ice-time his entire career (and on the flip side, took it away from guys who didn't deserve the ice). He didn't just suddenly change now but he's not going to throw his captain under the bus either. Ovechkin isn't an center either so his ice-time shouldn't be affected because the coach wants his best FO guy to take draws.

I would have agreed with you after the first game when he was largely invisible, but after a game in which our first line frequently stuck the Leafs in their own zone for minutes at a time?

Regardless, he's your captain and best player. Win or lose with him playing, not sitting on the bench. And I'm actually kind of on-board with not playing him at 4on4 on the road.

 

[Demandedace]

Hate to do it but have to agree with some of the points made on Holtby. How many games/series have we played against goaltenders who just go supernatural and steal things away from us? Holtby gives us generally very consistent and well above average play, but he has yet to really pull one of those juggernaut performances out - especially in do or die situations (though he does routinely make some pretty awesome saves, I don't want to take that away from him).

Of course our defense is leaving a lot to be desired right now as well though, it's easy to say that Holtby should steal things for us but we need our defense to be in position and not just allow offenses to tee it up in the slot without any pressure.

 

[txpd]

Just reading along. Its funny. This stacked team with holes has only 2 decent defensemen all of a sudden. 2 and 9? Last I saw 9 he was get used up in the neutral zone to set up a 2 on 1 against.

Its sad. Caps have scored 3 goals in 3 games and all season always won with 3 goals.

They need to get ahold of themselves. If the team and the coaching as is as bad as this thread makes them out to be......I will just stop there.

 

[Kegger]

Hate to do it but have to agree with some of the points made on Holtby. How many games/series have we played against goaltenders who just go supernatural and steal things away from us? Holtby gives us generally very consistent and well above average play, but he has yet to really pull one of those juggernaut performances out - especially in do or die situations (though he does routinely make some pretty awesome saves, I don't want to take that away from him).

Of course our defense is leaving a lot to be desired right now as well though, it's easy to say that Holtby should steal things for us but we need our defense to be in position and not just allow offenses to tee it up in the slow without any pressure.

Tend to agree. Maybe this is more on the defense needing to clear out better too, but just 1-2 goals negated by this and the series takes on a whole new complexion.