You know what, I think this round has a ton of interesting storylines.
1) Goaltending - This is a huge topic for both teams. Varlamov has stolen the net from one of the best goalies in the league, but it still remains to be seen if Roy plays Sorokin in game 1. Either way, I say they have the advantage in net. For the Canes, that's their biggest Achilles Heel. For the Canes, whether or not they'll have stability in net is a recurring theme with the likes of Kotchetkov, Raanta and Anderson giving Carolina a revolving door of Vezina calibre play, injuries, and bad outings.
2) Carolina's contracts - Take a look at the capfriendly page, it's absolutely nuts to see how many new guys are fighting for a new contract or fighting for a raise. Of note, there's Teravainen, Necas, Drury, Jarvis, Skjei, Pesce, DeAngelo, Chatfield and of course, Guentzel. Desperation can create diamonds out of some of these guys, but it can also create mistakes. On the other hand, NY has the entire core locked in long term.
3) The metro sucks - We all know the metro's been terrible this year, so Carolina hasn't really needed to play meaningful hockey in months. They had no way of knowing who they'd face, but home ice advantage was never really in doubt. New York's been playing playoff do-or-die hockey since Patty Roy was brought in. Not to mention, they've been severely underscoring compared to their offensive metrics since the ASB, so if the pucks start going in then they'll be a force. Yes the Canes are 8-2-0 in the last ten, but these games have been fictitious for them. NY are 8-1-1, so it's two of the three hottest teams in the league facing off against one another (Dallas is 8-2-0 int their last 10)
Honestly, I think we see an upset here. Guentzel isn't enough to overcome the goaltending concerns and I seriously think the Isles are going in with the confidence and goaltending to pull this off. I also can't forget Bo being GPG in the bubble and think he'll pop off similarly again.
I predict Isles win in 5, but that 2-3 of those games go to OT. Carolina management are left wondering what to do, and if this core has what it takes to show up in the moments that count.