TSN: Dreger: Detroit won't be swapping 1st, 2nd or a quality prospect for a rental

[redwingsphan]

Seto scored 40 points while playing injured on the 4th line. Nyquist scored 48 while healthy playing on the top line. While healthy, Nyquist played 97 games and scored 61 points during which time being a year older. When Seto was healthy, he scored 65 points in 81 games.

It's all relevant.

I don't think anyone is saying that he didn't have as much value as nyquist after his 65 pt season. It's that he didn't have as much value as nyquist when he was traded. You continually move the goalposts when you debate things. You say that nyquist had 48 pts, but you fail to add that it was in 57 games and most of those games were without at least one of the wings best players. You say that it was because of injuries. Well those injuries reduced his value.

 

[Run the Jewels]

yotes scored tied 8th most goals in western conference in 12-13.
tied for 8th in 13-14.
yotes scored 6th most goals in western conference in 11-12.
8th most goals in 10-11.
tied for 9th most goals in 09-10 (4 goals behind us).
9th most goals in 08-09 with dallas.
2nd most goals in 07-08.
9th most goals in 06-07.
4th most goals in 05-06.

so since the lockout season, the only time they have been in bottom 25% to bottom 33% of goals scored in WC, is this season. when their best line is about equal to out third line.

back then they had even some offensive talent.

this year they don't have even legit top 6 line. well, maybe their best line can be called passable 2nd line. babcock's wings are not much ahead of them in 5on5 goals, despite a lot more talent upfront.

i assume the 'plenty of good offensive dman' means just OEL and yandle who are scoring at spectacular level considering the talent around them.

They've been 15th, 20th and 29th in the league in 5v5 scoring the past three years. That's a trend that I would consider troublesome. That's worse than it was during his first three years coaching in Phoenix. Obviously playing in the west is incredibly challenging, but with the league becoming more offensively inclined (2010 had the lowest average goals per game since 2003) Tippet has had trouble keeping up and it's never been more evident this year despite having two premier offensive defensemen. Hell, Yandle's 5v5 production is a mere shadow of what it was only two years ago.

Every 50ish point d-man who has come to Detroit - with the exception of Chris Chelios who was on the downward slope of his career and was the defensive d-man alongside #5 - has had a career year in Detroit under Mike Babcock. Yandle would as well, despite how sad that makes the Brendan Smith fans.

 

[Dotter]

So he's only been healthy one season? That's relevant as well. If he can't stay healthy, and he's not as effective when injured, then he's not an effective player. Healthy and longevity are part of what makes players great.

Also, he was playing like 20 seconds less than the season before when he scored 61, but he lost time on the PP because SJ traded for Heatley. So the 4th line talk isn't really true.

Well I don't know. I am just basing it on what a San Jose Shark fan (and one of your fellow moderators) posted on the forum back in 2009/2010-ish in a Seto thread. I trusted those fellows knew what they were talking about since they were fans in the moment... and since one of the posters being a HFboard moderator, not sure why he'd lie about it.

But you could be right. I don't know how to look it up other than what's written here on old forum posts.

I don't think anyone is saying that he didn't have as much value as nyquist after his 65 pt season. It's that he didn't have as much value as nyquist when he was traded. You continually move the goalposts when you debate things. You say that nyquist had 48 pts, but you fail to add that it was in 57 games and most of those games were without at least one of the wings best players. You say that it was because of injuries. Well those injuries reduced his value.

No, I'm pretty sure I clearly emphasized Nyquist has 61 points in 97 regular season NHL games.

EDIT

Yup, sure did. Post 315. Also post 296. Look it up

Seto scored 40 points while playing injured on the 4th line. Nyquist scored 48 while healthy playing on the top line. While healthy, Nyquist played 97 games and scored 61 points during which time being a year older. When Seto was healthy, he scored 65 points in 81 games.

It's all relevant.

 

[redwingsphan]

Well I don't know. I am just basing it on what a San Jose Shark fan (and one of your fellow moderators) posted on the forum back in 2009/2010-ish in a Seto thread. I trusted those fellows knew what they were talking about since they were fans in the moment... and since one of the posters being a HFboard moderator, not sure why he'd lie about it.

But you could be right. I don't know how to look it up other than what's written here on old forum posts.



No, I'm pretty sure I clearly emphasized Nyquist has 61 points in 97 regular season NHL games.

EDIT

Yup, sure did. Post 315. Also post 296. Look it up

In the post that I quoted, you said he scored 48 pts playing on the first line. I never spoke to the 61 pts in 91 games. The two cups of coffee he had prior to last season are largely irrelevant when discussing nyquist's trade value at this time. Much like seta's 65 pt season is largely irrelevant after he had two seasons of 41 or less pts while playing at least 70 games in each season.

 

[Bench]

I'd definitely trade Nyquist in a package for OEL. But I can only imagine how stifled Nyquist would be under Tippet.

Tippett is one of the best coaches in the game... Plus it's not like we play an exciting game either. A lot of dirty net front goals and deflections. Once in a while we score on something flashy from Datsyuk or Tatar.

Kronwalled is right.

Tippett coaches to what he has. Ribeiro was a problem child from Montreal that didn't play defense and turned his career around under Tippett, scoring 220 points in 239 games, the best stretch of his career. Likewise, Brad Richards matched his career high in points, 91, under Tippett.

 

[DatsDeking]

With each new bit of news, I feel more and more like the Wings aren't going to be making any moves. I'm actually kinda ok with that if we can do something with March and XO for the playoffs. It would be sweet to see them both get some time.

 

[Dotter]

In the post that I quoted, you said he scored 48 pts playing on the first line. I never spoke to the 61 pts in 91 games. The two cups of coffee he had prior to last season are largely irrelevant when discussing nyquist's trade value at this time. Much like seta's 65 pt season is largely irrelevant after he had two seasons of 41 or less pts while playing at least 70 games in each season.

Weird considering what Evander Kane just returned while being injury prone and only scoring 30 goals once in his career about 3 years ago... and only scored 41 points last season in 63 games.... 'bout the same as Seto when he was traded.

Your argument makes no sense.

 

[InjuredChoker]

They've been 15th, 20th and 29th in the league in 5v5 scoring the past three years. That's a trend that I would consider troublesome. That's worse than it was during his first three years coaching in Phoenix. Obviously playing in the west is incredibly challenging, but with the league becoming more offensively inclined (2010 had the lowest average goals per game since 2003) Tippet has had trouble keeping up and it's never been more evident this year despite having two premier offensive defensemen. Hell, Yandle's 5v5 production is a mere shadow of what it was only two years ago.

compare yotes forward talent to their scoring and you have your answer. tippett teams (applies to almost every coach) score well when they have talent. and not when they don't have. the decline in scoring comes from good scoring players leaving phoenix or getting old.

i wonder why yandle's 5on5 productions is down. is it because tippett forgot coach offense in couple of year or because dman 5on5 production is heavily tied to production of their forwards.

no coach can do **** with two premiere offensive defenseman if forwards suck.

red wings have also had similar trend, decline in scoring. is it because the coach can't coach offense or because he's lost good offensive players or they have declined (and not just one good player but generational player)?

Every 50ish point d-man who has come to Detroit - with the exception of Chris Chelios who was on the downward slope of his career and was the defensive d-man alongside #5 - has had a career year in Detroit under Mike Babcock. Yandle would as well, despite how sad that makes the Brendan Smith fans.

and every of those dman also played with and/or behind lidström. those career years happened to line up when league wide scoring was higher and red wings had an excellent team. it's not like the sample is very large either rafalski, schneider.. neither played on as good teams, with as much offensive talent as they did in detroit. well lidström too but that is tied up to increase in scoring from more increased pp opportunities. and not from babcock's abilities to have their dman have career years offensively.

and it's not like their scoring was very significantly different. yandle would have very good years here, not sure about career years because pp opportunities are down and he might not be as sheltered here and babs doesn't have to rely on him offensively as much as they have to in arizona.

i don't get that last sentence at all.

 

[stillwater]

Kronwalled is right.

Likewise, Brad Richards matched his career high in points, 91, under Tippett.

Just a quibble, but that's not true.

Marc Crawford coached the Dallas team Richards scored 91 points for.

 

[Retire91]

Happy Detroit won't be making a move just let the youngsters develop.

 

[barnztormre]

Can we do this threeway trade:

To Pittsburgh: Jagr
To NJ: Jurco + Smith
To Detroit: Skuderi + pick

Is the pick NJ 2015?

 

[Chex LeMeneux]

Happy Detroit won't be making a move just let the youngsters develop.

I agree with this. Smith's play has improved when paired with Marchenko, DK and Quincey have been solid, and Big E is playing a bit better lately (plus there's nobody we could acquire to move him off the top pair without mortgaging the future.) I say just leave the roster alone at this point.

 

[redwingsphan]

Weird considering what Evander Kane just returned while being injury prone and only scoring 30 goals once in his career about 3 years ago... and only scored 41 points last season in 63 games.... 'bout the same as Seto when he was traded.

Your argument makes no sense.

What does a 3 for 5 trade involving Kane have to do with the value of setoguchi when he was traded (3 for 1) vs. nyquist's current value? Again, you have moved the goal posts. I'm done.

 

[Dotter]

What does a 3 for 5 trade involving Kane have to do with the value of setoguchi when he was traded (3 for 1) vs. nyquist's current value? Again, you have moved the goal posts. I'm done.

Because you said what a young player (Setoguchi) does a few years prior to being traded is largely irrelevant in the trade value after they only score 41 pts in under 70gmes at the time of said trade. I was just simply proving you wrong by pointing you to a recent example that says how far off you are from actual facts.

seta's 65 pt season is largely irrelevant after he had two seasons of 41 or less pts

Weird considering what Evander Kane just returned while being injury prone and only scoring 30 goals once in his career about 3 years ago... and only scored 41 points last season in 63 games.... 'bout the same as Seto when he was traded.

Above is your exact comment (and mine) so you can't keep saying your favorite generic one liner "you moved the goalpost" as you keep putting it... which is an odd deflection considering I backed everything I had up with recent NHL trades. Unless you are expecting an example exactly like the other; no two are alike.

Well, my friend, welcome to the NHL hockey where no two examples will be exactly alike. That doesn't mean one example can't be used and broken down to show similarities. Much like the Evader Kane example.

Just thought of a fun drinking game... for every time you say "moved the goalpost", everyone who reads it has to do a shot. Sounds fun... who's with me!

 

[redwingsphan]

Because you said what a young player (Setoguchi) does a few years prior to being traded is largely irrelevant in the trade value after they only score 41 pts in under 70gmes at the time of said trade. I was just simply proving you wrong by pointing you to a recent example that says how far off you are from actual facts.




Above is your exact comment (and mine) so you can't keep saying your favorite generic one liner "you moved the goalpost" as you keep putting it... which is an odd deflection considering I backed everything I had up with recent NHL trades. Unless you are expecting an example exactly like the other; no two are alike.

Well, my friend, welcome to the NHL hockey where no two examples will be exactly alike. That doesn't mean one example can't be used and broken down to show similarities. Much like the Evader Kane example.

Just thought of a fun drinking game... for every time you say "moved the goalpost", everyone who reads it has to do a shot. Sounds fun... who's with me!

Good job backing your arguments by incorrectly stating stats. He had 41 pts in 72 games. Not under 70 games. This is similar to when you said that he had 65 pts in the year before he was traded. Both of them are false. Anyway, I have no problem not having the last word, so this will be my last reply to you in this thread. Have a good night. Go Wings.

 

[Dotter]

Good job backing your arguments by incorrectly stating stats. He had 41 pts in 72 games. Not under 70 games. This is similar to when you said that he had 65 pts in the year before he was traded. Both of them are false. Anyway, I have no problem not having the last word, so this will be my last reply to you in this thread. Have a good night. Go Wings.

Let me check... Yup exactly as I said, under 70. 63 games played to be exact. SOURCE

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Let me check... Yup exactly as I said, under 70. 63 games played to be exact. SOURCE

You should have understood he interpreted your comment as discussing Setoguchi scoring 41 points in under 70 games (which he didn't), because that is what you said. You are having trouble making your points clear because the information behind them is incorrect, as he stated.

 

[Dotter]

I was talking about both players and using them as a comparison. One had 60+ games, the other had 70+ games.

They are both close to the same GP give or take 7-9 games played. Both players scored 41 points.

But this is all schematics and we're drifting away from the original point.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I gotta give it up to Dean Lombardi. He realizes a 1st round pick at the back half or back third of the draft is more likely to end up netting you Thomas McCollum or Jakub Kindl or Brendan Smith. He got the Carolina Hurricanes to accept the equivalent of a magic bean for a guy who could replace Slava Voynov and be a consistent 40+ point puck moving d-man. What are the odds the Hurricanes get a 40+ point d-man or the equivalent forward with a pick that late in the first round?

You have to hand it to Ken Holland though, your boy loves him some magic beans.

 

[Dotter]

I gotta give it up to Dean Lombardi. He realizes a 1st round pick at the back half or back third of the draft is more likely to end up netting you Thomas McCollum or Jakub Kindl or Brendan Smith. He got the Carolina Hurricanes to accept the equivalent of a magic bean for a guy who could replace Slava Voynov and be a consistent 40+ point puck moving d-man. What are the odds the Hurricanes get a 40+ point d-man or the equivalent forward with a pick that late in the first round?

You have to hand it to Ken Holland though, your boy loves him some magic beans.

You forgot to mention Anthony Mantha and Riley Sheahan in your late 1st round picks.

 

[SimplySolace]

Is this thread just Red Wings at the Deadline 4?

I don't get it anymore.

 

[obey86]

You forgot to mention Anthony Mantha and Riley Sheahan in your late 1st round picks.

And Kronwall. Jiri Fischer.



Late 1st rounders since 1998, busts in bold:
1998 - Fischer, 25th
2000 - Kronwall, 29th
2005 - Kindl, 19th
2007 - Smith, 27th
2008 - McCollum, 30th
2010 - Sheahan, 21st
2013 - Mantha, 20th

More hits (if Mantha works out) than busts.

Lack of 1st rounders from 1999 - 2006 (Two first rounders in 8 seasons) is probably a significant reason our prospect pool wasn't so hot during that time period. They traded away a ton of 1st rounders. I don't want to start doing that again personally. All these teams that are consistently trading away high draft picks will feel it eventually. I feel like Pittsburgh is always trading away top picks.

 

[RabbinsDuck]

I was originally hoping for a rental with Zidlicky, but with Franzen looking like he is out for the year - a Zidlicky/Jagr deal makes the most sense to me. Detroit does not have to give up nearly as much as other options but those two make them contenders for this year.

 

[Run the Jewels]

And Kronwall. Jiri Fischer.

Honestly, with the Wing's later first rounders since Holland they have been about 50/50. I'd say that's probably the typical rate.

We have no idea what Mantha and Larkin will do when they get to the professional level. Mantha isn't setting the world on fire in the AHL right now. Brendan Smith was considered one of the top college players and yet he hasn't become anything close to what was projected when he was drafted.

If you look over the past 20 years we have two really good NHL players: Kronwall and Fischer. Everyone else is a bust or is a a run of the mill NHL'er (ie, David Legwand already had three 40+ point seasons when he was Riley Sheahan's age).

The draft picks

2010: Sheahan - run of the mill NHL'er.
2008: McCollum - bust.
2007: Smith - mediocre d-man.
2005: Jakub Kindl - mediocre 7th d-man.
2000: Niklas Kronwall - very good d-man.
1998: Jiri Fischer - very good d-man.
1996: Jesse Wallin - bust ville.
1995: Maxim Kuznetsov - bust bust bust.
1994: Yan Golubovsky - hella bust.

So out of 9 guys who had plenty of time to develop, 2 of them were very good NHL players. Generously that's a 25% success rate.

So yes, Ken Holland loves him some magic beans.

 

[Squirrel in the Hole]

I was originally hoping for a rental with Zidlicky, but with Franzen looking like he is out for the year - a Zidlicky/Jagr deal makes the most sense to me. Detroit does not have to give up nearly as much as other options but those two make them contenders for this year.

You'very just considerably aged the team, without considering what the return would be. Also, I don't see how Jagr fits, he doesn'the bring the same skill set as Franzen (who, by the way, we are doing fine without) and would slow down any line we would put him on