maplepred
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With defense, goalies and third line forward I would totally agree with you. But we are not good at drafting top line forwards, not even close. You can't argue that.
Draft Thread Part 2: Bark to the Future
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With defense, goalies and third line forward I would totally agree with you. But we are not good at drafting top line forwards, not even close. You can't argue that.
Dave is a killer
Dave's a Mess
deanwormer
Registered User
I think that depends on what you mean drafting top line forwards. You talking Sid and Kane types - we've not had many shots at those. You talking finding a Datsyuk in later rounds - Marty is probably the only answer we have there.
High picks spent on Fs: Leggy. Hartnell. Upshall. The Russian Knucklehead. Wilson. Who am I missing? Hartnell turned out to be solid. The Russian Knucklehead - meh. Upshall - well, his hair never went on the DL anyway. Wilson - jury is out but looking like he's gonna' break-through. Leggy - he's a solid #2C over the bulk of his career. That was our shot at our Sid, but only Vinny was there. I dunno - I ding GMDP big-time on the 2 goalies that went bust (but props then for Peks), but I'm not sure we can sit here and say we stink at drafting good Fs; not unless you want to say we should turn them up in the 5th and 6th rounds.
The thing is the high end forwards tend to go really high in the draft every year and the team has simply been to good for to long to get high draft picks. They did draft Horny and Erat both late in the draft so there have been some good picks that every other team didn't give a chance. Just looking at Poile's track record over the past 10 years in the first round it has been really strong.
2003 - Ryan Suter #7 (would have been great if he didn't bail on the team this offseason)
2004 - Alexander Radulov #15 (great pick. Just sucks that he bailed on the team)
2005 - Ryan Parent #18 (T.J. Oshie most noteable player taken after)
2006 - No first round pick
2007 - Jon Blum #23 (I won't call him a bust or anything but we could have picked David Perron)
2008 - Colin Wilson #7 and Chet Pickard #18 (Wilson is a hit imo and obviously Pickard is not. could have had Sbisa, DelZotto, or Eberle with this pick)
2009 - Ryan Ellis #11 (There could be better players taken after him but we don't really know yet. I would have to say though I would love to have Nick Leddy)
2010 - Auston Watson #18 (I think he will end up being an NHL player and there isn't anyone taken after that is doing well yet)
2011 - No pick
2012 - No pick
If we would have picked in the top 4 in any of these years we could have landed players like Vanek, Ladd, Backstrom, Couture, Pietrangelo, Evander Kane, Ryan Johansen, Adam Larsson, or Griffin Reinhart.
My point being that we really have done pretty well with first round picks. We just haven't had top 4 picks to work with at all. This draft will be different and if we trade out of it or draft a d-man I will go ape s**t.
Hartnell, Hornqvist, Erat and Radulov are all legit scoring line forwards. They are not elite, but they are scoring forwards.
Wilson looks like he will most likely be and Beck seems to be on his way as well.
Wilson looks like he will most likely be and Beck seems to be on his way as well.
maplepred
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I mean in every draft there are awesome forwards selected, yes it's usually top ten, but I mean since we have been in the NHL I couldn't even name how many 'solid' forwards have been taken outside of the first round. Sure we bailed erat and horny outside of the first, but in fifteen years that's not great by any means.
Guys were taken after hartnell with tons more offense, and guys that were total waste were parent, upshall, Finley, pickard, etc. even Ryan Ellis had big forwards drafted after him in his draft year.
I bet if you look back over the past fifteen years. We have the worst track record for drafting top six forwards out of pretty much most teams in the league. It just hasn't been our forte.
Every single draft has 'at least' a few top six forwards since we've been in the NHL, and we just haven't hit any.
Maybe it is trotz's coaching, maybe it's our drafting. I don't know. But the only top six forwards we have hit over FIFTEEN years is hornqvist, legwand (was obvious #2 though), hartnell, radulov, and erat.
That's not very good in my opinion.
Also on a side note,
I hadn't realized we haven't had a first round pick in TWO years!! Crazy!
Guys were taken after hartnell with tons more offense, and guys that were total waste were parent, upshall, Finley, pickard, etc. even Ryan Ellis had big forwards drafted after him in his draft year.
I bet if you look back over the past fifteen years. We have the worst track record for drafting top six forwards out of pretty much most teams in the league. It just hasn't been our forte.
Every single draft has 'at least' a few top six forwards since we've been in the NHL, and we just haven't hit any.
Maybe it is trotz's coaching, maybe it's our drafting. I don't know. But the only top six forwards we have hit over FIFTEEN years is hornqvist, legwand (was obvious #2 though), hartnell, radulov, and erat.
That's not very good in my opinion.
Also on a side note,
I hadn't realized we haven't had a first round pick in TWO years!! Crazy!
I challenge someone to find more than 5 teams who have drafted better than us. Not gotten better players, but actually drafted better. Find the picks they had and who went after their guy.
Poile consistently has nailed 2nd rounder and later. Even the guys he gets crap for (like Finley) had no one better taken in the next 10 picks or so. You have to look at every pick int he context of what we had to work with and who was available. If Poile had 3 straight first overalls, we'd have some firepower too.
You can fault Poile on a lot of things, but drafting is not one of them.
Poile consistently has nailed 2nd rounder and later. Even the guys he gets crap for (like Finley) had no one better taken in the next 10 picks or so. You have to look at every pick int he context of what we had to work with and who was available. If Poile had 3 straight first overalls, we'd have some firepower too.
You can fault Poile on a lot of things, but drafting is not one of them.
nomorekids
The original, baby
I would actually say Poile has struggled a bit with the second round in particular, but I would never his ability to do well in late rounds.
Umm...
Shea Weber
Kevin Klein
Roman Josi
Nick Spaling
Magnus Hellberg
Adam Hall
Not bad at all, IMO. Much better lately too, he's improving.
braindead
Registered User
On a related note, and time will tell for sure, but the Preds look like they pretty well killed it in the 2009 draft:
Ryan Ellis (1st)
Zach Budish (2nd)
Charles-Olivier Roussel (2nd)
Taylor Beck (3rd)
Michael Latta (3rd)
Craig Smith (4th)
Mattias Ekholm (4th)
Nick Oliver (4th)
Gabriel Bourque (5th)
Cam Reid (7th)
It's fairly conceivable at this point that 7 of those guys could carve out careers in the nhl and appears likely that a minimum of 5 of them will get legit playing time. When a "very good" draft gets you 3 nhl players that would be pretty amazing.
Ryan Ellis (1st)
Zach Budish (2nd)
Charles-Olivier Roussel (2nd)
Taylor Beck (3rd)
Michael Latta (3rd)
Craig Smith (4th)
Mattias Ekholm (4th)
Nick Oliver (4th)
Gabriel Bourque (5th)
Cam Reid (7th)
It's fairly conceivable at this point that 7 of those guys could carve out careers in the nhl and appears likely that a minimum of 5 of them will get legit playing time. When a "very good" draft gets you 3 nhl players that would be pretty amazing.
Dave is a killer
Dave's a Mess
Unless Ellis grows 5 inches, that first rounder seems like a wasted pick to me ... holy balls ROR was a 2nd rounder in that draft :/
I Will Son
An Army of One
maplepred
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Poile does do good in drafts. I'm not arguing that. He is especially amazing at finding amazing defensemen and goalies. And is very solid in later rounds.
My only point is,
We have never really ever drafted a ''top line/top 3 forward'' other than that Russian moron.
This is our chance this year to do it. Take barkov or mackinnon or drouin with the fourth pick, do not trade down or we don't get one of the three. Lindholm, monahan, etc are not as secure picks, this could be our best ever forward drafted, and most likely will be.
My only point is,
We have never really ever drafted a ''top line/top 3 forward'' other than that Russian moron.
This is our chance this year to do it. Take barkov or mackinnon or drouin with the fourth pick, do not trade down or we don't get one of the three. Lindholm, monahan, etc are not as secure picks, this could be our best ever forward drafted, and most likely will be.
And my point is that very few 1st liners have been taken after we have had a pick. A few exceptions of course (Eberle
), but all in all, we haven't had a shot at many.I'd also argue that Hartnell and Radulov count, and Wilson is getting close.
I Will Son
An Army of One
I think Hartnell is getting underrated around here. I'd say he has been an average first liner to excellent 2nd liner for most of his career, shame all of it hasn't been with the Preds. What other Predator draftee has had a 30-30-60 season?
I certainly hope Wilson continues with the strides he's taken. You can definitely see he has it in him.
maplepred
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And my point is that very few 1st liners have been taken after we have had a pick. A few exceptions of course (Eberle
I'd also argue that Hartnell and Radulov count, and Wilson is getting close.
In fifteen years there hasn't been any first liners taken after we have picked??
http://video.predators.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=739&id=246163&cmpid=embed-share-video
Disappointing video, since no specifics are discussed about who we like, but Poile does talk about the possibility of trading it. The pick is "a huge asset". His first inclination is to draft with it, and "it would take a lot for me to move it", but "there will be overtures, and I want to hear what people think it is worth".
God, we better not trade this.
Disappointing video, since no specifics are discussed about who we like, but Poile does talk about the possibility of trading it. The pick is "a huge asset". His first inclination is to draft with it, and "it would take a lot for me to move it", but "there will be overtures, and I want to hear what people think it is worth".
God, we better not trade this.
It all depends on what's offered. He says it's a huge asset, and that it'd take a lot to move it, if Poile can get an over payment maybe it could be worth it.
But, yes, I hope they don't trade it. Under most circumstances.
nomorekids
The original, baby
I was referring to forwards, but since you mention it...1999 for example, yes, we drafted career fringe NHLer Adam Hall--but we had 5 second round picks that year. Aside from career AHLer Andrew Hutchinson, most never sniffed the NHL.
2000? Daniel Widing. "Talented" swedish forward never even played a complete season in north america.
2001 Timofei Shishkanov(bust) and Tomas Slovak(no NHL games)
2003- As you mentioned, Klein and Weber-- how about Glazachev over David Backes or Patrice Bergeron?
2006- a reach pick for a local, "feel good" story for Blake Geoffrion, who, even before his injury, was panning into a fringe NHL bottom six forward. Could have had Brad Marchand, who was rated higher at the time, but had to go off the board to grab the Brentwood kid.
2007- Jeremy Smith (AHL goaltender\possible NHL backup) and Nick Spaling (useful third liner) instead of Wayne Simmonds
2009- yes, a good draft for Nashville, though the second round is...surprise, iffy. Budish-- okay prospect, projects as a utility forward\bottom six. Charles Olivier Roussel - hasn't developed as expected, struggled to hold an AHL job this year. Passed on three players that are some of the top prospects in their respective systems--Richard Panik, Tomas Tatar, Jeremy Morin. We'll mention the first round-- Ryan Ellis is looking like an "okay" pick. Third pairing\PP specialist that has yet to put up points at the NHL level. Passed on Nick Leddy(established second pair d on the best team in the NHL) and Dmitri Kulikov(rising star).
2011- Yes, we took a goaltender that looks promising. He will also likely never play as a starter for us, given that Pekka is signed for six years. Passed on Brandon Saad to get him. Later in the round took a guy that Poile described as a "Jordin Tootoo" type in Miika Salomaki. Offensively limited checker...passed on one of Ottawa's top prospects in Shane Prince.
I can give credit where it's due...from rounds 4 on, David Poile and company are money...but as I said, when it comes to picking forwards in the second round, it's alarmingly rough. It was that way in Washington, too.
maplepred
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I think what he's saying is mostly every team has drafted more than one top three forward in the last fifteen years but us.
Hartnell is not first line, only radulov. Too bad he was such a head case.
But this is our chance to draft a star forward, could finally happen if poile doesn't make a trade (which I pray he doesn't)
nomorekids
The original, baby
The point I was trying to make is that we've had an iffy track record with our high picks, outside of defensemen. With that many second round picks, I would have expected at least one top six forward...instead of none. Obviously it's easy to play "woulda\shoulda" with draft picks, I was just providing some evidence that we're not the magical drafting team that some say.
We draft and develop defensemen like no other team in the NHL. Goaltenders too. Offensive minded forwards is another story. The numbers don't really lie.
Radulov has never had a 37 goal season, Radulov has never had a 67 goal season, Hartnell has done both.
Hartnell might not be a great first liner, but he's a scoring line forward, every bit as much as Radulov is.
But the rest I agree with. Poile's not perfect and his weakness is top end forwards but he more than makes up for it with defensemen.
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