GDT: Draft Position Thread.

[Lunatik]

Well, I think we all know we're falling faster than a love addict on molly.

I am still cheering for us to win, but I'm not expecting much after trading Tanev and Hanifin, and I am also hoping the teams behind us win because I understand there is value in picking higher.

After being curb stomped by the Avs tonight we have 17 games left and the 11th worst record in the league, or as you know the 11th overall pick going into the draft lottery.


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I will update the following section as needed:

So this chart is kind of like a magic/tragic number chart except it shows how many wins/losses are needed to make it impossible for the Flames to catch/fall to them.

For teams ahead of us, a Flames loss, or a win for that specific team will lower the number by 0.5. For teams behind us, a Flames win, or a loss for that specific team will lower the number by 0.5.

Tie-breakers are not factored in.

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Click to read more...

 

[Volica]

With all these Russians/Russian Adjacents available when Conny picks, his hands are going to be shaking.

Hate how much this pick is going to mean for this franchise. The wrong guy here and we are DOA. The pool is getting very thin, while I think there's some big upside guys there, there's no gangbuster type player waiting in the wings.

I think you really want to get into that top 6; you'll essentially get a pick you're happy with instead of hoping you got the best of what was left. I don't think there are massive tier drops between rankings.

I think it's Celebrini then a tier of 2-3 guys, then a big grouping of others.

Hoping the hockey Gods smile on you and give you a #1 would be nice.

 

[Mobiandi]

Unless there’s some can’t-miss #1D, I’m really hoping for a forward in the 1st. We seem to have few problems finding good dmen in between our couch cushions. But the gamebreaking fwds are more elusive for us without a high pick

 

[User1996]

Really like what I saw from Ritchie in the playoffs. Could be an option at Vancouvers pick too.

 

[JPeeper]

Only guy I would kind of avoid is Silayev, a defensive d-man who offers very little offence. I've seen those guys go high, they never turn out to be anything other than mid to bottom pair d-man. Gudbranson, Larsson, Reinhart albeit early teens, etc. Parehk being 100% offence, 0% defense I would be all over (maybe not over Dickenson or or the Belarussian), but you can teach a guy at least passable defense, you can't teach gamebreaking offense.

 

[IharRB]

Only guy I would kind of avoid is Silayev, a defensive d-man who offers very little offence. I've seen those guys go high, they never turn out to be anything other than mid to bottom pair d-man. Gudbranson, Larsson, Reinhart albeit early teens, etc. Parehk being 100% offence, 0% defense I would be all over (maybe not over Dickenson or or the Belarussian), but you can teach a guy at least passable defense, you can't teach gamebreaking offense.

Dickinson and Levshunov? They will be picked before the Flames, that's 3-5 places.

 

[Lunatik]

Updated after APR 9 games

 

[Lunatik]

delete

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Solidly in 8th with not much left
Time to cross fingers and hope for winning a lottery

 

[Roadrage]

Flames gonna go on a tear and finish the season by winning 4 of next 5.

 

[Kranix]

10th try was a charm. lfg

 

[Kahvi]

So my guess is 8th place, and finally some luck with lottery giving Flames 3rd pick.

8th it's gonna be, so lets just wait the second part to happen.

 

[Some Other Flame]

8th it's gonna be, so lets just wait the second part to happen.

There's no lottery for the 3rd pick. Only for first and second.

2nd OV would be rough because they'd have to choose between the seemingly consensus(?) BPA in Demidov who's projected to be a winger versus the potential top line centers/defensemen they've needed forever (or since Gio left).

 

[Kahvi]

There's no lottery for the 3rd pick. Only for first and second.

2nd OV would be rough because they'd have to choose between the seemingly consensus(?) BPA in Demidov who's projected to be a winger versus the potential top line centers/defensemen they've needed forever (or since Gio left).

Oh well, I thought a team could win a lottery and move up a certain amount of spots, depending how other teams do.

So Flames can still win the 1st pick if everything goes well, but not end up 3rd? is it the 8th pick if they dont win

 

[Some Other Flame]

Oh well, I thought a team could win a lottery and move up a certain amount of spots, depending how other teams do.

So Flames can still win the 1st pick if everything goes well, but not end up 3rd? is it the 8th pick if they dont win

There's lotteries for 1st overall and 2nd overall but not 3rd overall. Not since Yzerman complained about it:

How many draws are there in the NHL draft lottery?

Starting in 2021, the NHL dropped the number of lottery draws from three to two, ensuring that the team with the worst record in the NHL selects no later than third overall if it loses the first or second lottery draws.

"There are some clubs who think it's important that the teams that are struggling most get the most help," NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said last season. "There are other teams that think there's nothing wrong with the present system at all. Our competitive balance is so extraordinary that some clubs feel that the difference between a team that misses the playoffs and a team that really misses the playoffs really isn't all that great. In order to try and reconcile those competing views, we thought maybe a little bit of a tweak [was necessary]."

This change was influenced by the 2020 lottery, in which the Detroit Red Wings -- who had the worst record in the league (17-49-5) and the best odds for the first overall pick (18.5%) -- ended up picking No. 4 overall as the New York Rangers, Los Angeles Kings and Ottawa Senators won the lotteries for the first three picks.

Everything you need to know about the 2022 NHL draft lottery

The NHL's 16 non-playoff teams all have a shot at moving up the draft order.

www.espn.com

The NHL announced changes to the Draft Lottery format on March 23, 2021. Among the changes instituted in 2022 is a limit on the total number of selections (10) a team participating in the Draft Lottery can “move up” in the event it wins one of the Lottery Draws. Thus, only the top 11 seeds will be eligible to receive the first overall selection in the 2023 NHL Draft.

The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery Draw, based on which team wins the 1st Lottery Draw.

The 14 teams not selected in the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery will be assigned the remaining 2023 NHL Draft selections (among 1 through 16 in the first round), in inverse order of regular-season points.

https://media.nhl.com/public/news/16961

NHL Records

records.nhl.com

Assuming the Flames finish 25th in the standings inline to draft 8th overall, there's 5 possible scenarios for where the pick actually ends up:

• 1st OV if they win the first lottery
• 2nd OV if they win the second lottery
• 8th OV as is
• 9th OV if one team ranked 22nd to 24th wins a lottery
• 10th OV if two teams ranked 22nd to 24th win the lotteries

 

[Mobiandi]

12.2% odds of jumping to top 2 is more than I expected. Essentially 1/8th

 

[herashak]

at 8th overall id take Parekh

 

[User1996]

Parekh would be one of my least favourite outcomes at 8 in my opinion.

I’d have him a tier below guys that will be available for sure. Something about his game screams that it will be hard to translate.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Craig Button has him at #3, and we know the Buttons think alike.

If he's there at 8? Yeah. I could see it.

 

[User1996]

He also had ASP at #5, Perrault #15, Moore #16, and Honzek #21 last year.

If they thought that similar, ASP would almost certainly be a Flame. Is the “Buttons share the same brain” train of thought coming from the one year they both liked Jankowski?

 

[Lunatik]

Updated after APR 9 games

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Coyotes won tonight putting them at 73 points with 3 remaining. We still have a h2h game with them too.

 

[Volica]

Probably need to finish the season 0 for, but highly unlikely.
Weird tonight, the Kings should pump us, but also, I sort of want Vegas to get that 3rd Pacific seed so that Edmonton has to deal with that to start the playoffs.

 

[User1996]

Probably need to finish the season 0 for, but highly unlikely.
Weird tonight, the Kings should pump us, but also, I sort of want Vegas to get that 3rd Pacific seed so that Edmonton has to deal with that to start the playoffs.

Edmonton might be the front runner to finish 1st anyways. They have Arizona x2, Vancouver, Sharks, Avalanche.

Vancouver has Oilers, Flames, Jets.

 

[Kranix]

Probably need to finish the season 0 for, but highly unlikely.
Weird tonight, the Kings should pump us, but also, I sort of want Vegas to get that 3rd Pacific seed so that Edmonton has to deal with that to start the playoffs.

lot of ins, lot of outs, lot of what-have-yous

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Edmonton might be the front runner to finish 1st anyways. They have Arizona x2, Vancouver, Sharks, Avalanche.

Vancouver has Oilers, Flames, Jets.

Which is better for the Vancouver pick anyways I believe, so yes please.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

He also had ASP at #5, Perrault #15, Moore #16, and Honzek #21 last year.

If they thought that similar, ASP would almost certainly be a Flame. Is the “Buttons share the same brain” train of thought coming from the one year they both liked Jankowski?

Jankowski was primarily a Weisbrod decision.

But yeah thinking similar is "they share the same brain" lol. Man people just want to pick fights over nothing these days.