Draft Lottery

[Gardner McKay]

Isles deserve a lottery win with Tavares set to leave. So rarely in the NHL does a team's franchise player decide to test UFA and sign elsewhere, at the young age of 27 years old.

Which is why Rasmus Dahlin will be a proud member of the New York Rangers. Because.

No disrespect man but they don't deserve anything. Especially when Tavares is going to leave because of the ridiculously inept management team running the NYI. I feel bad for Isles, I do. Their ownership just turns a blind eye to the incompetence of their GM and coach. But they don't *deserve* anything because of it.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

Well not one team technically deserves Dahlin. It's sports, no such thing as deserve.

 

[Metroid]

Sigh: On to the Next Round: Sportsnet’s Coverage of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs Continues with Second Round Action | Sportsnet Media Centre


I guess that's one way to keep a Canadian audience watching.

Holy moly, good thing I am not invested in the lottery otherwise I would be super annoyed

 

[boredmale]

Holy moly, good thing I am not invested in the lottery otherwise I would be super annoyed

it's a weird feeling if you are a fan of one of those 3 teams, you are both overjoyed yet annoyed at the same time. lol

All I know is if the Islanders don't move up I am tuning out for the night, if the Islanders somehow win I will just find something else to watch for an hour and a half and come back the 2nd period.

 

[CodeE]

No disrespect man but they don't deserve anything. Especially when Tavares is going to leave because of the ridiculously inept management team running the NYI. I feel bad for Isles, I do. Their ownership just turns a blind eye to the incompetence of their GM and coach. But they don't *deserve* anything because of it.

Fans need to be double punished for the sins of our management? Not only must we deal with piss poor coaching, development, eternal misery, and our franchise player walking, you can't even give us the benefit of the doubt to say we might "deserve" Dahlin?

Certain teams in the draft lottery (Detroit, Vancouver, Chicago, Rags, etc) were contenders just a mere few years ago. Teams get older, cup windows close, but fans haven't faced a literal lifetime of misery, fighting for the Cup while we were drafting Ryan Strome and Griffin Reinhart to lead the next generation of Islanders.

Now that rebuild is a total failure. And our star of it is likely to walk. So yeah, I look at a team like Arizona and think they might be more deserving than Detroit. As annoying as I find some of their fans, Montreal could use him more than Edmonton.

It's like comparing a 35-year-old who has been dirt poor his entire life to a 35-year-old who cashed out a huge trust fund at 18 and spent 18-34 of his life driving sports cars and vacationing on private beaches, but spent all the money and is now broke. Do both men equally deserve a $200,000 lottery ticket because the poor guy had ridiculously inept parents who couldn't provide a stable upbriginging for him? Does the formerly rich guy deserve the lottery ticket because he's used to a lavish lifestyle, while the poor guy can easily spend another 35 years eating ramen noodles?

I get that you're a Rangers fan and asking for sympathy for the Isles isn't gonna happen, but I still think the teams that haven't had playoff success (or in the case of Edmonton, a ton of 1st overall picks including the Lebron James of hockey) deserve Dahlin more than teams on the tail end of their cup window. Of course from a business perspective, it makes more sense to send Dahlin to Chicago or the Rangers than to Arizona or Ottawa, so I guess we'll see. I'll still have teams (apart from the Isles two picks) that I'll be happier to see win Dahlin.

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

Can they just change the draft name to "Oilers Summer Cup"...

 

[Kcoyote3]

Calling it now, Rangers win #1 overall

 

[Gardner McKay]

Fans need to be double punished for the sins of our management? Not only must we deal with piss poor coaching, development, eternal misery, and our franchise player walking, you can't even give us the benefit of the doubt to say we might "deserve" Dahlin?

Certain teams in the draft lottery (Detroit, Vancouver, Chicago, Rags, etc) were contenders just a mere few years ago. Teams get older, cup windows close, but fans haven't faced a literal lifetime of misery, fighting for the Cup while we were drafting Ryan Strome and Griffin Reinhart to lead the next generation of Islanders.

Now that rebuild is a total failure. And our star of it is likely to walk. So yeah, I look at a team like Arizona and think they might be more deserving than Detroit. As annoying as I find some of their fans, Montreal could use him more than Edmonton.

It's like comparing a 35-year-old who has been dirt poor his entire life to a 35-year-old who cashed out a huge trust fund at 18 and spent 18-34 of his life driving sports cars and vacationing on private beaches, but spent all the money and is now broke. Do both men equally deserve a $200,000 lottery ticket because the poor guy had ridiculously inept parents who couldn't provide a stable upbriginging for him? Does the formerly rich guy deserve the lottery ticket because he's used to a lavish lifestyle, while the poor guy can easily spend another 35 years eating ramen noodles?

I get that you're a Rangers fan and asking for sympathy for the Isles isn't gonna happen, but I still think the teams that haven't had playoff success (or in the case of Edmonton, a ton of 1st overall picks including the Lebron James of hockey) deserve Dahlin more than teams on the tail end of their cup window. Of course from a business perspective, it makes more sense to send Dahlin to Chicago or the Rangers than to Arizona or Ottawa, so I guess we'll see. I'll still have teams (apart from the Isles two picks) that I'll be happier to see win Dahlin.

I don't have the same hatred for the Islanders that the rest of my fellow Rangers fans do. Don't get me wrong, you guys aren't in my top-5 favorites or anything but I just don't believe in this concept. To say that the Islanders are owed Dahlin just isn't right. The only thing that is deserved in the NHL is the Stanley Cup, the team that puts it more blood, sweat and tears than the other guys to make it happen.

The team that deserves Dahlin is the team that is fortunate enough to have the balls turn up their way. Sports are competitive. They aren't always meant to be fair. If my memory serves me correctly, the Rangers haven't had a top 5 pick since 1966, haven't had a #1 pick since 1965, and have won fewer cups in 78 years than the Islanders did in the last 38 years. Using your logic, I can easily make the case that we "deserve" Dahlin more than you guys.

This concept of "deserving" is in the eye of the beholder. What you are trying to do is essentially re-distribute talent in order to make things fair (based on who you perceive deserves it the most). It is one of the most absurd things I have ever read. I really do respect you as a poster and putting aside the rivalry of our teams, this is just an absolutely ridiculous concept.

I know Islanders fans are hurting. One of my very best friends is a die-hard Islanders fan (@QuadDeuces where ya at?), it sucks that you are likely to lose your franchise talent. Tavares is a really likable guy. Hell, if we weren't rebuilding I would throw a blank checkbook at him. Name his price. He is worth it and losing that kind of player is devastating. But, that doesn't mean you guys deserve Dahlin. What it means is that your ownership fails to see the gross incompetence of the GM and coach, nothing more, nothing less. We as Rangers fans know those feelings. We watched Sather trade away our future year after year after year, over pay declining talent year after year, and then hand a sinking ship to Gorton and say "good luck kid, I left you in great shape!".

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

ahhh, the lottery.... I remember those dark times.

It's horrendous but could be worse.

 

[CodeE]

I don't have the same hatred for the Islanders that the rest of my fellow Rangers fans do. Don't get me wrong, you guys aren't in my top-5 favorites or anything but I just don't believe in this concept. To say that the Islanders are owed Dahlin just isn't right. The only thing that is deserved in the NHL is the Stanley Cup, the team that puts it more blood, sweat and tears than the other guys to make it happen.

The team that deserves Dahlin is the team that is fortunate enough to have the balls turn up their way. Sports are competitive. They aren't always meant to be fair. If my memory serves me correctly, the Rangers haven't had a top 5 pick since 1966, haven't had a #1 pick since 1965, and have won fewer cups in 78 years than the Islanders did in the last 38 years. Using your logic, I can easily make the case that we "deserve" Dahlin more than you guys.

This concept of "deserving" is in the eye of the beholder. What you are trying to do is essentially re-distribute talent in order to make things fair (based on who you perceive deserves it the most). It is one of the most absurd things I have ever read. I really do respect you as a poster and putting aside the rivalry of our teams, this is just an absolutely ridiculous concept.

I know Islanders fans are hurting. One of my very best friends is a die-hard Islanders fan (@QuadDeuces where ya at?), it sucks that you are likely to lose your franchise talent. Tavares is a really likable guy. Hell, if we weren't rebuilding I would throw a blank checkbook at him. Name his price. He is worth it and losing that kind of player is devastating. But, that doesn't mean you guys deserve Dahlin. What it means is that your ownership fails to see the gross incompetence of the GM and coach, nothing more, nothing less. We as Rangers fans know those feelings. We watched Sather trade away our future year after year after year, over pay declining talent year after year, and then hand a sinking ship to Gorton and say "good luck kid, I left you in great shape!".

I think you're implying I want to change the lottery system to some weird unbiased committee who debates who "deserves" Dahlin, then Svech, and so on. I enjoy the current lottery system (even though it does greatly screw over the team that finishes dead last, Buffalo in this instance) much like I enjoy the current playoff format - it certainly has me on edge a day before the draft lottery going in with two picks.

Saying we "deserve" Dahlin is more of a desperate plea to the hockey gods than a plea to Bettman to change the system and make sure we get it (although Bettman if you're reading... I wouldn't be opposed to some rigging... help smooth the Belmont transition). Much like that winning lottery ticket, the poor-all-his-life guy might "deserve" it more than the trust fund kid who flushed away hundreds of millions of dollars, but the lottery ticket is still gonna go to whoever randomly scratches it off. Nobody "earns" a winning lottery ticket or is handed one... unless you're a 20-something babe marrying a 94-year-old billionaire without a prenup.

If the lottery system was based on who "deserved" it, Edmonton would have never gotten McDavid. It's still going to be random, but I can definitely cheer for it going to some teams rather than others.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Calling it now, Rangers win #1 overall

Rangers or Detroit would be my guess.

 

[Kranix]

Hopefully it's
1 Calgary(NYI)
2 NYI
3 Edmonton

 

[LeafFever]

Calling it now, Rangers win #1 overall

Because it's fixed? I think we all figured that out once Edmonton kept winning. That's clearly the most desirable market to provote your biggest stars.

 

[Kranix]

Because it's fixed? I think we all figured that out once Edmonton kept winning. That's clearly the most desirable market to provote your biggest stars.

I hope the Leafs win it somehow.

 

[dangomon]

Ran the simulator for the first time this year and got this....

Aside from the Sabres losing 1st again, the Islanders make out like bandits with two slim chance lottery wins.

 

[CanuckGame39]

Just LOL at the Islander fans crying they deserve Dahlin.

You guys have your 4 cups.
You guys had your 1st overall in Tavares which your franchise is going to let walk away for free.

Islanders deserve nothing.

 

[GOilers88]

Fans need to be double punished for the sins of our management? Not only must we deal with piss poor coaching, development, eternal misery, and our franchise player walking, you can't even give us the benefit of the doubt to say we might "deserve" Dahlin?

Certain teams in the draft lottery (Detroit, Vancouver, Chicago, Rags, etc) were contenders just a mere few years ago. Teams get older, cup windows close, but fans haven't faced a literal lifetime of misery, fighting for the Cup while we were drafting Ryan Strome and Griffin Reinhart to lead the next generation of Islanders.

Now that rebuild is a total failure. And our star of it is likely to walk. So yeah, I look at a team like Arizona and think they might be more deserving than Detroit. As annoying as I find some of their fans, Montreal could use him more than Edmonton.

It's like comparing a 35-year-old who has been dirt poor his entire life to a 35-year-old who cashed out a huge trust fund at 18 and spent 18-34 of his life driving sports cars and vacationing on private beaches, but spent all the money and is now broke. Do both men equally deserve a $200,000 lottery ticket because the poor guy had ridiculously inept parents who couldn't provide a stable upbriginging for him? Does the formerly rich guy deserve the lottery ticket because he's used to a lavish lifestyle, while the poor guy can easily spend another 35 years eating ramen noodles?

I get that you're a Rangers fan and asking for sympathy for the Isles isn't gonna happen, but I still think the teams that haven't had playoff success (or in the case of Edmonton, a ton of 1st overall picks including the Lebron James of hockey) deserve Dahlin more than teams on the tail end of their cup window. Of course from a business perspective, it makes more sense to send Dahlin to Chicago or the Rangers than to Arizona or Ottawa, so I guess we'll see. I'll still have teams (apart from the Isles two picks) that I'll be happier to see win Dahlin.

Peter Chiarelli already gifted you a beautiful first round pick which turned into a superstar in his rookie season as compensation for the Griffin Reinhart draft, so that's a moot point.

 

[PlamsUnlimited]

If the Sabres are in the top 3 that is a very good position to be in but they basically direly need a guy like Dahlin

 

[saskriders]

Just LOL at the Islander fans crying they deserve Dahlin.

You guys have your 4 cups.
You guys had your 1st overall in Tavares which your franchise is going to let walk away for free.

Islanders deserve nothing.

How many Canucks fans on here have seen their team in the Cup Finals? How many Isles fans?

There is a statute of limitations on this sort of thing. I can agree that getting to draft Tavares first overall should have a damper on "how much Isles fans deserve it", but team success in recent years should be a factor too (and the fact Tavares may leave should have nothing to do with it, don't punish fans for poor ownership).

 

[Hasek]

EDM,NYI, NYI, BUF

 

[saskriders]

If I were in charge of the draft lottery I would have a system that adjusts every teams percentages based on team success in recent years and draft lottery success. The idea being that in a fair league (ie one where there is parity, teams don't stay in the basement for years and years, and dynasties don't form out of getting lucky enough to draft multiple elite top 3 pick players) I don't have any concrete numbers worked out (and am no mathematician so the formulas may turn out wonky numbers, or not work as I intended, so I am open to critique of making the system work more like it is intended to), but the basic idea would be something like this:

-What I will call "the standard odds" are the numbers the NHL currently has given to each team. These will not change, but for this example I will convert them to whole numbers (so initially the worst team will have 18.5 and the sum of all the odds will still be 100).

-All lottery teams will have their standards odds multiplied by two separate numbers, both of which are between 0 and 1. I will call these numbers the "success factor" and the "lottery factor", and will result in the "adjusted odds"

-The success factor will be used to reduce the odds of teams who have been successful in the playoffs over the past 10 years. My reasoning for including this is that these teams have demonstrated that they have been "good" recently and teams that have not been good recently may deserve a better opportunity to get good quicker. I choose 10 years because it is a round number and relatively recent, but not too recent. However I am not committed to it at all and I mainly just chose it to have a number in this example.

-The success factor will be determined by the following formula: [1/(PX+F2X+S4X+T8X+C16X)] where X is a yet to be determined constant representing the value of making the playoffs, P is the number of times making the playoffs in the last 10 years, F is the number of first round series won in the last 10 years, S is the number of second round series won in the last 10 years, T is the number of third round series won in the last 10 years, and C is the number of cups won in the last 10 years.

-The lottery factor will be used to reduce the odds of teams who have won lottery picks in recent years. The idea being that they have already had their opportunity to draft elite players, the pieces they need to become a contender should be available outside of the lottery picks, and other teams which have not recently had a lottery pick. In this example I will use 15 years as the number of years a lottery pick still has an impact on a teams lottery factor, however I am not quite sure what number to use. On the one hand lottery picks may be elite players for almost 20 years, but on the other hand they can also be complete busts. Which brings me to my next point which is points. Number 1 picks can be worth a lot more in one year than the next. And since there is usually a lot of consensus in the top 3 it isn't really good drafting to get one of the better #1OA guys it is just luck having the #1OA in the right year. Because of this I want to include points in the formula to determine the "value" of the lottery pick. This way a team that gets to draft a McDavid with their #1 pick has their odds reduced more than a team that gets to draft a Yakupov with their #1 pick.

-The lottery factor will be determined with the following formula: [1/(FXP1A+S(X/2)P2A+T(X/3)P3A)] Where X is a constant representing the value of a first overall pick, F is the number of first overall picks in the last 15 years, S is the number of second overall picks in the last 15 years, T is the number of third overall picks in the last 15 years, P is the sum of the career points per game all players drafted by that team in the last 15 years with that pick (I decided points per game is the best value to use as it will decrease as players move past their peak, and as the player gets worse they will reduce the teams odds less but will continue to have some impact for those 15 years), A is actually two different variables that adjust the points per game depending on if the players are defence or forwards (and something would have to be done for goalies too as well). This formula may need a bit of work still, but I believe it considers all the factors I would want it to consider.

-At this point to determine the new percentages for all teams the lottery numbers will be distributed relative to each team's new "adjusted odds". For example let's say the team that finished last in the league had their original "standard odds" at 18.5 and their new "adjusted odds" are 16.29 and the sum of all 15 new "adjusted odds" is 81.00. Our last place teams percent chance at the number 1 pick would be determined by dividing 16.29 by 81.00 which would give us a percentage of 20.11 as this teams new chances at winning the 1st overall pick.

-After the first pick is determined the odds would be adjusted again to determine the odds for winning the second pick. The idea being that if a low odds team wins the first pick, we may not want to see another low odds team win the second and we may not want to see the high odds teams fall farther. The same thing will happen after the second lottery.

-For example lets say that the team with the 12th best odds wins the first pick. Before the second drawing the lottery numbers belonging to the team that won the previous draw will be distributed. To determine how many teams to distribute those numbers between we will take the position of the winning team (12) and subtract it from the total number of teams (15) and get 3. Therefore we will distribute team #12's lottery numbers between the three teams #1, #2, and #3 (distributed so that the ratios between their odds remains the same as it was in the first lottery). This process will than be repeated after the second lottery has been drawn.

 

[SotasicA]

It would be more fun if the winner of the lottery would get to make their 7 picks first. All the stars on the same team. To see how those players and that team would grow together.

Other teams would still get picks 8-217

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

 

[GordonGecko]

Draft lottery tonight, picks 4 through 15 will be announced at 7:30 PM and picks 1,2,3 will be announced after the second period of the vegas game

 

[SotasicA]

I don't see the point in announcing 4-15 picks, since aren't those just the teams that didn't win the lottery and their internal order stays the same?

Like, hypothetically, if pick #15 is announced to belong to the Islanders, then we'd already instantly know the 4-15 draft order because it means the top 3 are the Blues, the Panthers and the Stars (the current bottom 3). When your team doesn't get announced during their "pre-set turn", you know they won one of the 3 lotteries.