draft lottery proposal by Gary B

[The Old Master]

No, because there is nothing fair about a wighted draft in this situation. Who is to say that the wings would have been better than the blues this season or, the blues better than the preds even. Who is to say that atlanta wouldnt have been a playoff team. There is no way anybody can say one team is better than the other now. Or for that matter, the last 2 ninth seeded would miss the playoffs again. The previous draft rewarded the previous season. What about the teams with new ownership and different budgets. There have been a rediculouis number of changes in personell and players since the last draft or played season.


Edit: Basically alot of things have changed , is what i was getting at.

but we all know they would be better than the chi. hawks, was. caps, and the pens!

 

[HockeyCritter]

No, because there is nothing fair about a wighted draft in this situation. Who is to say that the wings would have been better than the blues this season or, the blues better than the preds even. Who is to say that atlanta wouldnt have been a playoff team. There is no way anybody can say one team is better than the other now. Or for that matter, the last 2 ninth seeded would miss the playoffs again. The previous draft rewarded the previous season. What about the teams with new ownership and different budgets. There have been a rediculouis number of changes in personell and players since the last draft or played season.


Edit: Basically alot of things have changed , is what i was getting at.

Sure the Wings and Blues might have swapped positions in the standings and Atlanta might even have snuck into the playoffs. But you would be hard pressed to convince most people that the Wings would have finished worse than Pittsburgh, Washington, or Chicago. Affording the Wings the same statistical chance at the overall number one (or even a top five) pick is counterintuitive to the purposes of drafting.

 

[topshelf331]

What might have happened in a season that never happened has absolutely no relevence to how to set the most fair draft order.

When its the draft for that season it does. Im not saying those things might have happened, Im saying too much has changed since the last draft that would have effected this years draft order. Those teams dont deserve a weighted draft because they really arent even close to the same teams.

 

[topshelf331]

Sure the Wings and Blues might have swapped positions in the standings and Atlanta might even have snuck into the playoffs. But you would be hard pressed to convince most people that the Wings would have finished worse than Pittsburgh, Washington, or Chicago. Affording the Wings the same statistical chance at the overall number one (or even a top five) pick is counterintuitive to the purposes of drafting.

It is possible.

 

[HockeyCritter]

When its the draft for that season it does. Im not saying those things might have happened, Im saying too much has changed since the last draft that would have effected this years draft order. Those teams dont deserve a weighted draft because they really arent even close to the same teams.

The problem with this line of reasoning is that you are basing a draft on what might happen when you don't even have all the variables in place. The truest indicator of future performance is past performance. Sure it is not completely accurate but it far more reliable methodology than saying “the new CBA would cause my team to be guttedâ€

Since most are opposed to canceling the draft entirely or permanently raising the draft age (in my opinion the only “fair†way to handle this) the most logical course of action would be to use past performance to determine future outcome. Going back several years (in a system where the further out you go the less “weight†the results carry) will compensate for a one year spike/drop while allowing for upward/downward trends.

 

[HockeyCritter]

It is possible.

So is my chance of meeting Johnny Depp . . . but is it probable? We are discussing probabilities not possibilities . . . . there is a huge difference.

 

[topshelf331]

The problem with this line of reasoning is that you are basing a draft on what might happen when you don't even have all the variables in place. The truest indicator of future performance is past performance. Sure it is not completely accurate but it far more reliable methodology than saying “the new CBA would cause my team to be guttedâ€

I think you missed my point. Yes it would be a good indicator, but still very innacurate, too innaccurate to be fair. Teams win the stanley cup and then miss the playoffs. The seasons played have already been rewarded.

 

[HockeyCritter]

I think you missed my point. Yes it would be a good indicator, but still very innacurate, too innaccurate to be fair. Teams win the stanley cup and then miss the playoffs. The seasons played have already been rewarded.

Sure, that means they dropped 15 or 16 slots . . . . not 29.

Again, it is possible but is it probable?

 

[Jaded-Fan]

When its the draft for that season it does. Im not saying those things might have happened, Im saying too much has changed since the last draft that would have effected this years draft order. Those teams dont deserve a weighted draft because they really arent even close to the same teams.

Really? What exactly? Afterall we are assuming that last year had been played, which means that very little actually would have changed. True, there will be some major changes next year, many more players will be without contract for instance than would have been last year and there will be a new CBA, but last year only a handful were without contract. I personally do not think that the landscape will change all that much even next year, those who have sucked of late will still suck (or only minorly improve) those good will still be good (or only minorly step back). Hell, most here think that as shown by threads predicting that the same top teams are favored next year for the cup as were favored in 2003-4. But if by chance they do suck in this changed environment then they get top chances at Kessel and Co. But last year? Which of course is what we are dealing with in this draft. No way there would be that much movement, next to nothing would have changed had there been a season, too many remained under contract.

 

[Hoss]

Is it ineptness? Does finishing bottom five automatically make your team incompetent?

In this instance I mean: ineptness the quality of having the wrong properties for a specific purpose.

 

[Hoss]

Why should teams that haven't missed the playoffs in a decade have ANY shot at Crosby. Certainly you can see that it makes more sense that these 'losers' are more deserving of getting the early picks that the.. uh... 'winners'.

Well heck, if your talking decades why not eliminate all franchises who have ever won a Stanley Cup? That would give the Canucks the same chance Atlanta has!

 

[topshelf331]

Really? What exactly? Afterall we are assuming that last year had been played, which means that very little actually would have changed. True, there will be some major changes next year, many more players will be without contract for instance than would have been last year and there will be a new CBA, but last year only a handful were without contract. I personally do not think that the landscape will change all that much even next year, those who have sucked of late will still suck (or only minorly improve) those good will still be good (or only minorly step back). Hell, most here think that as shown by threads predicting that the same top teams are favored next year for the cup as were favored in 2003-4. But if by chance they do suck in this changed environment then they get top chances at Kessel and Co. But last year? Which of course is what we are dealing with in this draft. No way there would be that much movement, next to nothing would have changed had there been a season, too many remained under contract.

You missed my point also. Im saying we cant assume anything. There was no season and nothing to go on. Im not saying anything would have happened, Im saying it could of happened. It probably would have been similar, but nobody knows. Thats why it cant be weighted. IT should be random 1 in 30 chance.

 

[WC Handy*]

You missed my point also. Im saying we cant assume anything. There was no season and nothing to go on. Im not saying anything would have happened, Im saying it could of happened. It probably would have been similar, but nobody knows. Thats why it cant be weighted. IT should be random 1 in 30 chance.

I just don't see how anyone who is honestly looking for the most fair system can say that the fairest system is the one where the Wings get the same shot at Crosby as the Penguins or the Blackhawks...

 

[RangerBoy]

JFJ is still at it

Should the proposed draft lottery be accepted, the Leafs would have just a 1.7 per cent chance of landing the junior phenom. Maple Leafs GM John Ferguson Jr. still firmly believes that each of the league's 30 teams should have an equal shot at Crosby, but there's almost no chance that will happen. The lottery will almost certainly be skewed in favour of teams that have not been successful the past four seasons.

"Using past performance to project future performance, especially in a new economic system, doesn't make much sense," Ferguson said. "The Phoenix Coyotes have five free agents in their lineup who weren't there when we last played hockey. Who knows what kind of team they will be?"

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Co...64&t=TS_Home&DPL=IvsNDS/7ChAX&tacodalogin=yes

 

[19nazzy]

"Using past performance to project future performance, especially in a new economic system, doesn't make much sense," Ferguson said. "The Phoenix Coyotes have five free agents in their lineup who weren't there when we last played hockey. Who knows what kind of team they will be[/B]?"

Exactly.
And roughly 50-75% of the league will be a type of FA. Teams are going to look very different next year, most will be on the fairest playing field there has been since who knows how long.

 

[WC Handy*]

"Using past performance to project future performance, especially in a new economic system, doesn't make much sense," Ferguson said. "The Phoenix Coyotes have five free agents in their lineup who weren't there when we last played hockey. Who knows what kind of team they will be[/B]?"

I understand that JFJ is simply looking out for his team and trying to improve his own shot at Crosby, but I can't believe he was willing to say something so stupid.

Every single offseason the draft is set by the previous season. Every single offseason teams sign players and make trades that will have an effect on the upcoming season's standings. The draft order has NEVER been set with these changes in mind so why should they now?

JFJ should shut his mouth be estatic that his team has the 1.7% chance that it doesnt' deserve.

 

[norrisnick]

Every single offseason the draft is set by the previous season. Every single offseason teams sign players and make trades that will have an effect on the upcoming season's standings. The draft order has NEVER been set with these changes in mind so why should they now?

There is another thing a draft has never done. I'm sure you know this so I'll leave it unwritten.

Though you make a good point... were he talking of the '04 draft.

 

[Mess]

I understand that JFJ is simply looking out for his team and trying to improve his own shot at Crosby, but I can't believe he was willing to say something so stupid.

Every single offseason the draft is set by the previous season. Every single offseason teams sign players and make trades that will have an effect on the upcoming season's standings. The draft order has NEVER been set with these changes in mind so why should they now?

JFJ should shut his mouth be estatic that his team has the 1.7% chance that it doesnt' deserve.

Agreed but timing is involved here as well ..

If you look at the course of events ..

Normal course of events

1) Playoffs end

2) Entry draft in June based on season just finished.

3) UFA spending season begins July 1st.. Teams might even base their spending habits on draft results ..

Simple ..but notice that UFA follows the draft ..

Now

1) Here we have go back to 03-04 Playoffs

2) June entry draft (Ovechkin draft) rewarding teams for previous years success.

3) July 1st UFA season .. Boston released Knuble, Murray, Rolston etc and as pointed out above in this example with Phoenix teams are vastly different now going into the lockout.. Some teams only have a few players under contract and left the Palffy's, Kovalev's, Kariya's sitting till CBA term are known (which in the stroke of a pen could again vastly change teams going into the new season)

4) No 04-05 results standings as per lockout

5) No honouring of 04-05 contracts that now further make many players UFA/RFA changing teams again.

6) Retiring players and two full years of younger players about to take former NHLers jobs ..

Entry Draft (when a new CBA is signed) based on 2 years ago results with a draft (already rewarding those standings) and an UFA season (vastly changing teams).. and now if the not honouring 40-05 contracts occurs (further change again)

Fergy is pointing out that results if a season occurred would be unknown and now because of the lockout teams are only skeltons of their former selves .

 

[Lanny MacDonald*]

Agreed but timing is involved here as well ..


If you look at the course of events ..

Normal course of events

Playoffs end
Entry draft in June based on season just finished.
UFA spending season begins July 1st.. Teams might even base their spending habits on draft results ..

Now

Here we have go back to 03-04 Playoffs
June entry draft (Ovechkin draft) rewarding teams for previous years success.
July 1st UFA season .. Boston released Knuble, Murray, Rolston etc and as pointed out above in this example with Phoenix teams are vastly different now going into the lockout.. Some teams only have a few players under contract and left the Palffy's, Kovalev's, Kariya's sitting (which in the stroke of a pen could again vastly change teams going into the new season)
No 04-05 results standings
No honouring of 04-05 contracts that now further make many players UFA/RFA changing teams again..

Draft (when a new CBA is signed) based on 2 years ago results with a draft (already rewarding those standings) and an UFA season (vastly changing teams).. not honouring 40-05 contracts

Fergy is pointing out that results if a season occurred would be unknown and now because of the lockout teams are only skeltons of their former selves .

Uh huh. And wasn't it "Fergy" (man, sounds like a fat chick that was once a princess) that spent like a drunken sailor loading up his team "just in case" the season happened? There was ZERO chance of the Leafs finishing bottom five based on the team that "Fergy" had put together. None. To "Fergy" is was business as usual in Toronto and he spent like no one else in the league. While other teams were allowing players to walk he was right in the trough loading up. Now he's trying to cry poor? Sorry, he has no legs to stand on. He took no actions other than to load up. He reaps what he hath sown.

 

[WC Handy*]

Agreed but timing is involved here as well ..

If you look at the course of events ..

Normal course of events

1) Playoffs end

2) Entry draft in June based on season just finished.

3) UFA spending season begins July 1st.. Teams might even base their spending habits on draft results ..

Simple ..but notice that UFA follows the draft ..

Now

1) Here we have go back to 03-04 Playoffs

2) June entry draft (Ovechkin draft) rewarding teams for previous years success.

3) July 1st UFA season .. Boston released Knuble, Murray, Rolston etc and as pointed out above in this example with Phoenix teams are vastly different now going into the lockout.. Some teams only have a few players under contract and left the Palffy's, Kovalev's, Kariya's sitting till CBA term are known (which in the stroke of a pen could again vastly change teams going into the new season)

4) No 04-05 results standings as per lockout

5) No honouring of 04-05 contracts that now further make many players UFA/RFA changing teams again.

6) Retiring players and two full years of younger players about to take former NHLers jobs ..

Entry Draft (when a new CBA is signed) based on 2 years ago results with a draft (already rewarding those standings) and an UFA season (vastly changing teams).. and now if the not honouring 40-05 contracts occurs (further change again)

Fergy is pointing out that results if a season occurred would be unknown and now because of the lockout teams are only skeltons of their former selves .

Fergy isn't pointing out anything other than his selfishness. Just like you and Nick.

 

[Mess]

Fergy isn't pointing out anything other than his selfishness. Just like you and Nick.

Are you suggesting you want it the other way for UN-selfishness reason .. or is that just stategy on your part because you have a different opinion ??

That kettle of yours must be so black by now I suggest you throw it out and get a new one ..

 

[norrisnick]

Fergy isn't pointing out anything other than his selfishness. Just like you and Nick.

If I gave a damn about Crosby you might have a point. This a case about the principle for me just as it seems to be with you.

You make all these arguments about the draft always having been a system to accommodate past results, yet you fail to acknowledge that past results have already been accommodated with past drafts. Or the concept that a draft has never been used to help balance a season that a previous draft has already accounted for. You make cases about that absolute of looking backwards without recognizing this wholly unique situation.

Other weighting/exclusionary draft supporters bring up the case that the draft is meant to help the weaker teams yet only look back at past results without ever attempting to acknowledge the actual current strengths of the teams and the massive amounts of change that has occured since Dave was handed the Cup.

Then there are others that admittedly feel like punishing the successful/wealthy teams of the past regardless of the state of things now, but I don't really care too much about their opinions any more than those that answer the "who deserves Crosby" question with "my team, of course."

If you guys made the right arguments I might be inclined to join your cause, but you don't. While my argument might sound selfish I don't care if the Wings draft 30th (I'm actually thrilled that Kenny kept a 1st rounder. We've only had 2 in the last 8 drafts) even if say Colorado lands Crosby. What matters to me is that nobody out there is making the decision to arbitrarily exclude any number of teams from having that shot based on things that have allready been accounted for.

 

[PecaFan]

Are you suggesting you want it the other way for UN-selfishness reason .. or is that just stategy on your part because you have a different opinion ??

There are numerous fans of us good teams saying we shouldn't have a shot at the top few picks in the draft.

I don't remember a single person advocating the "everyone should be equal" stance that wasn't a fan of a good team.

 

[WC Handy*]

Are you suggesting you want it the other way for UN-selfishness reason .. or is that just stategy on your part because you have a different opinion ??

That kettle of yours must be so black by now I suggest you throw it out and get a new one ..

Unfortunately for you I've ben saying since I joined this board that my team deserves absolutely no shot at Crosby and my team was a 7 seed in the playoffs and very well could have missed the playoffs if the missed year was played.

But guess what... the missed year didn't happen. So it only makes logical sense to use what we KNOW such as the standings the last few years than to GUESS.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

There are numerous fans of us good teams saying we shouldn't have a shot at the top few picks in the draft.

I don't remember a single person advocating the "everyone should be equal" stance that wasn't a fan of a good team.

IF I had to pick one team that I root for, it's the Penguins I suppose (Kings, Habs, too many to mention here ). And I definitely believe that "everyone should be equal". No season, no way of knowing who sucks and who will be great. Even the Almighty New York Yankees and their $200+ million payroll in baseball are playing .500 ball and no more. Stuff happens. The games are played on ice in hockey, not on paper. We simply don't know what might have happened had they had a season. In fact, it would have been a LOT different had they only played HALF the season. Remember '95?

While I support a weighted lottery, I am completely opposed to any system that eliminates ANY team from the draft lottery. And to simplify things, I think one ball per team for Round 1 would be the best way to go. Call me crazy.