GDT: Draft Day

WingedWheel1987

Registered User
Jan 11, 2011
13,342
925
GPP Michigan
The theme with the draft was all tall defense minded players. I don't know much about any of these picks but from the board it seems like this draft really blew it for us. Only time will really tell but I am not going to hold my breath over this draft just from what I have read. Now it looks like we need to offer Yzerman the farm to come back home where he is a legend. I'm talking Mike Babcock money and length of contract with his pick at staff and coach. I watched the entire draft for the first time and it just looked like he was one step ahead of most teams with not a care in the world as to what the other 30 teams did.

Someone needs to educate me though honestly I need to be educated. the Griffins just won the championship but yet we don't draft well. Just by looking at that it seems like we do pretty well with developing players. Please let me know as to what I am missing. Kind of interesting that the Crunch are the Lightening affiliates as well. This is going to be a fun rivalry unfold even more.

AHL team performance has almost zero correlation with NHL affiliate team performance.

With the talent level being so much lower in the AHL, drafting serviceable NHL players will end up giving you a very good AHL team. Tyler Bertuzzi was the Calder Cup MVP and his NHL ceiling is a bottom six grinder. Unfortunately that means very little in the NHL if the NHL team doesn't have any elite/franchise players on the team.

Plus with teams being able to call up AHL players at any moment, having a bunch of similar skilled replacements ready to fill in is pretty important.
 
Jul 30, 2005
17,710
4,672
I mean, what is location, really
This draft is all side dishes, but Detroit still needs a main course. They're just getting ahead of themselves. Now we have to say: oh, okay, well whoever we draft in 2018 will really be the guys who drive the bus, and then these grinders and physical defensemen can help. But by now we should be concerned that they're just going to do this again next year...
 

Zetterberg4Captain

Registered User
Aug 11, 2009
13,894
2,277
Detroit
The theme with the draft was all tall defense minded players. I don't know much about any of these picks but from the board it seems like this draft really blew it for us. Only time will really tell but I am not going to hold my breath over this draft just from what I have read. Now it looks like we need to offer Yzerman the farm to come back home where he is a legend. I'm talking Mike Babcock money and length of contract with his pick at staff and coach. I watched the entire draft for the first time and it just looked like he was one step ahead of most teams with not a care in the world as to what the other 30 teams did.

Someone needs to educate me though honestly I need to be educated. the Griffins just won the championship but yet we don't draft well. Just by looking at that it seems like we do pretty well with developing players. Please let me know as to what I am missing. Kind of interesting that the Crunch are the Lightening affiliates as well. This is going to be a fun rivalry unfold even more.

despite what KH tells people, the AHL is not a development league, its just a hockey league for players who cant make the NHL before they go over to finish their hockey playing days in Europe sprinkled in with a few young players who most likely will have depth NHL roles if they play more then a season down there(by and large)

most of the best NHL stars dont spend much time down there "developing"

therefore, who cares if you win the Calder as by and large it means nothing for your NHL teams future, just a bunch of 28 year olds having one last kick at the can
 

Hadoop

Registered User
Aug 13, 2002
5,604
627
Mississauga
Granted I'm an analytics guy, but this may be our worst draft in the last 25 years. I mean Michael Rasmussen at #9... are you ****ing kidding me?



So hard to be a Wings fan right now.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Jul 30, 2005
17,710
4,672
I mean, what is location, really
I figured it out. It took me a while, but I figured it out. I was so confused by this draft. I thought: Detroit is a bad team with little elite talent, and they need to rebuild. So why did Detroit draft this way? I think even the front office would agree that they didn't go for elite talent this time around. So, why is that?

What I started to realize is: this is the type of draft you have when you've got a (pre-existing) talented core group that is underachieving when it matters most. They might not have the support pieces or glue guys, and they just need help and hard work and grit to reach their potential. But that didn't make sense to me, because, like I said, Detroit is not that kind of team. They don't have that core group. Most of us don't think they have the talent level right now. They need to take time and draft some star players to lead them.

And then it clicked. Detroit thinks they do have the core group already. This isn't a draft to build for a core group yet to come; this is a draft designed to push the existing group into playoff contention. They're essentially saying that they think the current roster/system could be successful right now with the right depth players. Detroit is shortening the window and trying to win now, even in how they're starting to draft. They're not going BPA. This draft was pure need. Rasmussen isn't an elite talent who we've misjudged; he's a strategic complementary piece who will elevate existing guys like Larkin and Mantha, even if it ultimately wasn't a smart value pick.

So, essentially, we have different opinions of this draft because we have different goals. Detroit wants to churn out pro-level depth guys in the short term. They don't want to find a new core. They want to win with the one they think they already have.
 
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Run the Jewels

Make Detroit Great Again
Jun 22, 2006
13,830
1,756
In the Garage
Someone needs to educate me though honestly I need to be educated. the Griffins just won the championship but yet we don't draft well. Just by looking at that it seems like we do pretty well with developing players. Please let me know as to what I am missing. Kind of interesting that the Crunch are the Lightening affiliates as well. This is going to be a fun rivalry unfold even more.

The Red Wings approach the AHL much differently than most teams. The first 2013 Calder Cup team included a bunch of guys who were ready for regular NHL time: Petr Mrazek, Gus Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Sheahan, DeKeyser, Jurco, Glendening. Most NHL teams would have had most if not all of these guys on their roster. DeKeyser was actually sent down after Detroit's season ended. So this was a team heavy on NHL talent that had been buried in Grand Rapids. Holland used to like to say he let his prospects get "over ripe".

This last 2017 Calder Cup team doesn't have anywhere near the same amount of NHL talent. Does anyone really expect 7 guys from that roster to be regulars in the NHL and play over 300 NHL games? I'd be shocked. This team has a bunch of veteran AHL talent and had a great coach in Todd Nelson. Bertuzzi and Svechnikov will probably hit 300 NHL games. Hronek will on defense. That's it. 3 guys.

We draft good AHL talent. We keep most guys in the AHL for far too long. We currently have a really good coach in Grand Rapids. Given all that it's not a surprise the team has done well. Ken Holland is doing a masterful job as the de facto General Manager for the Grand Rapids Griffins.

It'd be nice if we had a GM focused on rebuilding the Detroit Red Wings.
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
11,137
8,931
I figured it out. It took me a while, but I figured it out. I was so confused by this draft. I thought: Detroit is a bad team with little elite talent, and they need to rebuild. So why did Detroit draft this way? I think even the front office would agree that they didn't go for elite talent this time around. So, why is that?

What I started to realize is: this is the type of draft you have when you've got a (pre-existing) talented core group that is underachieving when it matters most. They might not have the support pieces or glue guys, and they just need help and hard work and grit to reach their potential. But that didn't make sense to me, because, like I said, Detroit is not that kind of team. They don't have that core group. Most of us don't think they have the talent level right now.

And then it clicked. Detroit thinks they do have the core group already. This isn't a draft to build for a core group yet to come; this is a draft designed to push the existing group into playoff contention. They're essentially saying that they think the current roster/system could be successful right now with the right depth players. Detroit is shortening the window and trying to win now, even in how they're starting to draft. They're not going BPA. This draft was pure need.

So, essentially, we have different opinions of this draft because we have different goals. Detroit wants to churn out pro-level depth guys in the short term. They don't want to find a new core. They want to win with the one they think they already have.
We don't need to get better! We need to keep doing what we're doing, only more of it! (Welcome to The Road to Nowhere...)

hamster_wheel_running-300x300.jpg
 

ricky0034

Registered User
Jun 8, 2010
15,139
7,429
I figured it out. It took me a while, but I figured it out. I was so confused by this draft. I thought: Detroit is a bad team with little elite talent, and they need to rebuild. So why did Detroit draft this way? I think even the front office would agree that they didn't go for elite talent this time around. So, why is that?

What I started to realize is: this is the type of draft you have when you've got a (pre-existing) talented core group that is underachieving when it matters most. They might not have the support pieces or glue guys, and they just need help and hard work and grit to reach their potential. But that didn't make sense to me, because, like I said, Detroit is not that kind of team. They don't have that core group. Most of us don't think they have the talent level right now. They need to take time and draft some star players to lead them.

And then it clicked. Detroit thinks they do have the core group already. This isn't a draft to build for a core group yet to come; this is a draft designed to push the existing group into playoff contention. They're essentially saying that they think the current roster/system could be successful right now with the right depth players. Detroit is shortening the window and trying to win now, even in how they're starting to draft. They're not going BPA. This draft was pure need. Rasmussen isn't an elite talent who we've misjudged; he's a strategic complementary piece who will elevate existing guys like Larkin and Mantha, even if it ultimately wasn't a smart value pick.

So, essentially, we have different opinions of this draft because we have different goals. Detroit wants to churn out pro-level depth guys in the short term. They don't want to find a new core. They want to win with the one they think they already have.

maybe

I could sort of see it with the Forwards and Goalies list if I squint a little,there's some amount of potential there in guys like Mantha and Larkin and some guys that have performed decently at times in Nyquist and Tatar and a bunch of depth guys like Helm(Zetterberg is key though and is getting up there in age)

I can't imagine how even Holland could look at this teams Defense and see much of anything at this point though
 
Jul 30, 2005
17,710
4,672
I mean, what is location, really
We don't need to get better! We need to keep doing what we're doing, only more of it! (Welcome to The Road to Nowhere...)

hamster_wheel_running-300x300.jpg
And sort of in the same vein, the reason the Wings didn't really draft offensive defensemen is because they were too busy drafting guys to play with the ones they've already drafted. This is a group of guys to round out, protect, and cover for the undersized, skilled group they already have: Hronek, Hicketts, Saarijarvi, and Cholowski.

What this ends up being is a world-class case of counting your chickens before they're hatched.
 
Jul 30, 2005
17,710
4,672
I mean, what is location, really
maybe

I could sort of see it with the Forwards and Goalies list if I squint a little,there's some amount of potential there in guys like Mantha and Larkin and some guys that have performed decently at times in Nyquist and Tatar and a bunch of depth guys like Helm(Zetterberg is key though and is getting up there in age)

I can't imagine how even Holland could look at this teams Defense and see much of anything at this point though
I think they're including the prospects too.
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
11,137
8,931
Here's what I have trouble reconciling.

Detroit hired a full time analytics guy in 2015:
https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbss...o-hire-full-time-hockey-analytics-person/amp/

I'm would tend to think that this was at least intended to shift strategy at least a little bit towards valuing advanced stats and metrics.

And yet every review of this draft that even mentions analytics, does so to say that Detroit arguably had the worst draft in the league, based on analytics.

So is Brian Campbell just a token position, or did he just multiply all his calculations by -1 ? :confused:
 

Run the Jewels

Make Detroit Great Again
Jun 22, 2006
13,830
1,756
In the Garage
Here's what I have trouble reconciling.

Detroit hired a full time analytics guy in 2015:
https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbss...o-hire-full-time-hockey-analytics-person/amp/

I'm would tend to think that this was at least intended to shift strategy at least a little bit towards valuing advanced stats and metrics.

And yet every review of this draft that even mentions analytics, does so to say that Detroit arguably had the worst draft in the league, based on analytics.

So is Brian Campbell just a token position, or did he just multiply all his calculations by -1 ? :confused:

Their advanced analytics told them DeKeyser, Neilsen, Abby and Helm are worth $18.5 million for the next 4+ years. There are simply no words to describe how inaccurate those advanced analytics are.
 

Go Wings

Registered User
Sep 26, 2009
6,223
4,245
Chatham, ON
Holland draft strategy 101:

Draft size

Draft guys with names that sound like former greats:

Lindstrom
Gilmour
Jack Adams
Gallant
 

obey86

Registered User
Jun 9, 2009
8,013
1,274
Holland draft strategy 101:

Draft size

Draft guys with names that sound like former greats:

Lindstrom
Gilmour
Jack Adams
Gallant

Don't forget Turgeon, Bertuzzi, Holmstrom, and Ferraro from past drafts.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,335
14,839
I think we could all agree our goal with this draft was to accelerate the re-build process and find folks that will outperform their draft position.

I do not think this draft haul accomplishes that whatsoever.

I was really hoping on day 2 we went for some boom or bust guys with high offensive ceilings. I don't know that anyone we picked fits that bill except maybe the Hakan picks, or Adams.

I really don't understand these draft picks, feels like a Jim Nill draft class from like 2005 or something.
 

cjm502

Bingo Bango!
Jun 22, 2010
1,791
992
Mid Michigan
The direction we took this draft when we had the 9th pick and three 3rd rounders is mind boggling. The goalie pick is good value but goalies are more of a crapshoot then any other position. Most seem to like the 7th round pick but realistically the last pick being your favorite says a lot about the rest of the draft.
 

Mount Suribachi

Registered User
Nov 15, 2013
4,247
1,052
England
The theme with the draft was all tall defense minded players. I don't know much about any of these picks but from the board it seems like this draft really blew it for us. Only time will really tell but I am not going to hold my breath over this draft just from what I have read. Now it looks like we need to offer Yzerman the farm to come back home where he is a legend. I'm talking Mike Babcock money and length of contract with his pick at staff and coach. I watched the entire draft for the first time and it just looked like he was one step ahead of most teams with not a care in the world as to what the other 30 teams did.

Someone needs to educate me though honestly I need to be educated. the Griffins just won the championship but yet we don't draft well. Just by looking at that it seems like we do pretty well with developing players. Please let me know as to what I am missing. Kind of interesting that the Crunch are the Lightening affiliates as well. This is going to be a fun rivalry unfold even more.

Griffs won with a bunch of guys in their mid-late 20s who are just below NHL level (Ford, Street, Callahan, Tangradi, Lashoff etc)
 

Heaton

Moderator
Feb 13, 2004
22,548
925
Auburn Hills

Yep, based by the experts it was a really bad draft. I'm sure more optimistic people will want to wait to see what happens (not like we have a choice), but if by the time we find out that these are just more of the same role players, we'll just continue into the dark depths.

Hopefully the majority of scouts and draft experts are wrong.
 

HisNoodliness

The Karate Kid and ASP Kai
Jun 29, 2014
3,716
2,086
Toronto

mindfly

Happy camper!
Jan 7, 2011
9,878
8
Bloomfield Hills, MI
Anyone got a list of Tyler Wrights picks, did he pick a guy that exactly is exciting/exceeds expectations? Tyler Bertuzzi perhaps?

Too little, too few... He should go, we need a new chief executive scout (or if its called director of amateur scouting)

With Jim Nill, we drafted skill first... now we seem to draft size and grit instead...................
 
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Zetterberg4Captain

Registered User
Aug 11, 2009
13,894
2,277
Detroit
Anyone got a list of Tyler Wrights picks, did he pick a guy that exactly is exciting/exceeds expectations? Tyler Bertuzzi perhaps?

Too little, too few... He should go, we need a new chief executive scout

Not to be naive but man, it actually seems rather easy to be a chief scout

With all the video and literature and multiple expert rankings who are all fairly similar, all you have to is follow them for the most part

It's when people try and get too cute in the first three rounds that teams make mistakes.

Keep it simple stupid and you will always be alright.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,335
14,839
Anyone got a list of Tyler Wrights picks, did he pick a guy that exactly is exciting/exceeds expectations? Tyler Bertuzzi perhaps?

Too little, too few... He should go, we need a new chief executive scout (or if its called director of amateur scouting)

With Jim Nill, we drafted skill first... now we seem to draft size and grit instead...................

Filip Hronek. Dylan Larkin. Vili Saarijarvi.
 

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