Draft and Develop

[KingBogo]

So our core is fundamentally flawed. I don't think I hugely disagree with that.. I've never been a massive fan of our core. But with the right surrounding pieces they're certainly capable of being a consistent playoff team. But lets suppose that I'm wrong. Do you think then, that, we should have ditched this core years ago? Why re-sign and extend our core if they're not the right players? Doesn't that then land on chevys lap then for making a bad bet on our core?

In retrospect yeah maybe we should have moved on from the core group early on. I think we would be further ahead now if we had. But I understand why the organization didn't. Our core players were all relatively cheap and were being signed as RFA's to decent contracts. There was still the hope of Bogo and Kane reaching their draft potential. But mostly I think the organization had the mindset that they had to fill the prospect cupboard before committing to a direction. In the meantime TNSE were seeing their investment grow by leaps and bounds and had a tidy operating profit each season. They were making lots of upgrades and the fans were identifying with their favorite players. I think they saw these first few years as laying the long term foundation.

The problem now is where do we go from here? I do believe the decision making year has caught them a little flat footed. I do get the feeling they thought Ladd and Buff would sign for team friendly amounts, and all their prospects would turn out to be gold. Then the older core and a dynamic young group would blend seamlessly and boom a contender would be born. Except IMO the older core is seriously flawed and while I think Chevy drafted well and players have for the most part developed nicely not often are you going to draft a franchise player from the 9-17 slot.

So we are where we are, and I don't think I am near the Chevy fan you think I am. But I am willing to watch and see how this all plays out over the next couple months before passing judgement. Personally, I very badly want them to transition to the younger core, make a few trades for picks and prospects and try to build for the future as I see that as our only real hope.

 

[tbcwpg]

Preposterous and unreasonable to think that a 22 year old who has played centre for like 2 years and was decently sheltered last year, might struggle when thrust into the role of 3rd line shutdown centre.

Chiarot the same guy who was meh in junior, meh in the AHL, barely had a decent shift away from Byfuglien (noted by many people around here), and was benched in playoffs for Pardy? Seems well within the realm of possibility to me.

I don't think Jets management was alone in thinking Lowry would've taken a step forward this season, a player who's NHL expectations is a shut-down guy getting 23 points in his first full year of the NHL, including 11 goals. Also, 3 playoff points.

Chiarot has his limitations but he was one of the best d-men in camp. If, like some suggest, we should've brought in some vets to push the youth for spots, I think Chiarot's camp would've won him a spot over some PTO vet, or probably pushed Pardy to the AHL. It certainly pushed Harrison to the AHL.

The fact that every defense of this argument requires a leap in logic shows how weak and unrealistic it is "But Trouba could sit out", "But someone could offersheet him", "But Lowry will want 4 million", "But Ehlers could turn out to be next Patrick Kane having us to shell out 7 million for his post-entry level contract". One unrealistic scenario on top of the other masked as serious and existential threat to the roster from the cap situation. The fact of the matter is we are more likely to be near the floor next year again than the ceiling.

If we are at the same cap level next year, without committing fully to the kids (ie. give them spots and don't bring in vets again), then I'm right with you on the Chevy position. Like I said to Res, I want to see how he handles this off-season and the Ladd/Buff situations as I think this is probably his biggest test yet. He knows he got played in the Frolik mess - we'll see if he's learned his lessons.

Not sure I really want to address the rest of your post as you are attributing my hypotheticals to me thinking those are absolutely going to happen scenarios. I also think you underestimate the value of contract Trouba is going to get. With defencemen, it's about more than goals and assists.

 

[Board Bard]

Chevy didn't get "played" in the Frolik situation. He was presented with an entirely palatable gift in summer 2014, and mooned it. He was the one playing. Playing idiot.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Chevy didn't get "played" in the Frolik situation. He was presented with an entirely palatable gift in summer 2014, and mooned it. He was the one playing. Playing idiot.

Allegedly. Still a fail, regardless, as he's now in Calgary. Youth movement appears to be stalled / delayed as well, though we might see it make a comeback if they want to go hard after Mathews, I'd guess.

 

[DK59]

Allegedly. Still a fail, regardless, as he's now in Calgary. Youth movement appears to be stalled / delayed as well, though we might see it make a comeback if they want to go hard after Mathews, I'd guess.

I am not sure if I would call the youth movement being stalled given that we have three rookies at forward and one at goalie at the moment. I also don't think there was an expectation from management that the rookies would be setting the world on fire either this year. I think their goal all along was to begin to transition younger players into the lineup with the goal being to be better positioned next year to have these young guys taking on progressively more important roles.

On the subject of Frolik it has always been my assessment that their first priority was to sign Frolik to a new deal but that Stafford was a backup plan if they were unable to sign Frolik. I am not saying this was the right decision but just my take on what I think Chevy might have been thinking. So if it really was a scenario where they would only sign one these guys the Stafford signing has certainly worked out fine so far.

 

[tbcwpg]

Chevy didn't get "played" in the Frolik situation. He was presented with an entirely palatable gift in summer 2014, and mooned it. He was the one playing. Playing idiot.

I think he got greedy and tried to get a better deal out of Walsh and Frolik than he was presented, and it backfired on him. Walsh had his client sign the 1 year deal to leverage a better deal out of Chevy next summer, which Chevy balked at, and he got a good deal in Calgary.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

I think he got greedy and tried to get a better deal out of Walsh and Frolik than he was presented, and it backfired on him. Walsh had his client sign the 1 year deal to leverage a better deal out of Chevy next summer, which Chevy balked at, and he got a good deal in Calgary.

So you think that Chevy got schooled by Walsh again.

 

[tbcwpg]

So you think that Chevy got schooled by Walsh again.

I don't think he got schooled so much by Walsh with Pavelec, but I do think he did on the Frolik negotiations, yes.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

I don't think he got schooled so much by Walsh with Pavelec, but I do think he did on the Frolik negotiations, yes.

I agree with you on Frolik, but I think Walsh ran him over on the Pav negotiations too.

 

[10Ducky10]

Fro for 5 years is too long thanks....why people still talking about Fro? He didn't want to p lay here....buh bye.

 

[truck]

Fro for 5 years is too long thanks....why people still talking about Fro? He didn't want to p lay here....buh bye.

It was reported that he was willing to sign for 4 years at 4 mill.

This was prior to his one year deal. Where did your 5 years come from?

 

[tbcwpg]

It was reported that he was willing to sign for 4 years at 4 mill.

This was prior to his one year deal. Where did your 5 years come from?

From this past summer, and the deal he signed in Calgary.

 

[10Ducky10]

From this past summer, and the deal he signed in Calgary.

yup, signed for 5 in Calgary.

 

[blues10]

You're describing draft and deploy.

BINGO - that is exactly what the Jets are doing. I was calling it draft and gift positions but draft and deploy is a much more appropriate term. Guys should be developing on the farm and then entering the league. I would have loved to have seen Copp in the A with some veteran centre playing 4th line hockey for the Jets. Guys developing what it takes to be a pro in the AHL and getting tastes of the show due to occasional call-ups before making the jump.

I would like an astute media member to ask Chevy exactly how he defines draft and develop.

 

[DK59]

BINGO - that is exactly what the Jets are doing. I was calling it draft and gift positions but draft and deploy is a much more appropriate term. Guys should be developing on the farm and then entering the league. I would have loved to have seen Copp in the A with some veteran centre playing 4th line hockey for the Jets. Guys developing what it takes to be a pro in the AHL and getting tastes of the show due to occasional call-ups before making the jump.

I would like an astute media member to ask Chevy exactly how he defines draft and develop.

He would probably say that it very much depends on the player and the circumstances. I think for the most part there are far more examples of the Jets management being patient with their prospects rather than the other way around. Copp is certainly an example where choosing to send him to develop in the AHL may have been a good thing for his development but he is showing no signs of hurting the team playing on the 4th line and it is debatable whether playing him there is adversely impacting his development. I certainly would not be drawing any conclusions that the Jets development strategy is fundamentally flawed that is for sure.

 

[truck]

BINGO - that is exactly what the Jets are doing. I was calling it draft and gift positions but draft and deploy is a much more appropriate term. Guys should be developing on the farm and then entering the league. I would have loved to have seen Copp in the A with some veteran centre playing 4th line hockey for the Jets. Guys developing what it takes to be a pro in the AHL and getting tastes of the show due to occasional call-ups before making the jump.

I would like an astute media member to ask Chevy exactly how he defines draft and develop.

With Copp it feels as though they wrote him off as a depth forward before his first pro game. While it may not be the most likely outcome, some elements of his game remind me of Craig Smith in Nashville. I have always seen that kind of player as the ultimate upside for the get.

Will he get ther playing 7 minutes a night?

 

[Puckatron 3000]

In retrospect yeah maybe we should have moved on from the core group early on. I think we would be further ahead now if we had. But I understand why the organization didn't. Our core players were all relatively cheap and were being signed as RFA's to decent contracts. There was still the hope of Bogo and Kane reaching their draft potential. But mostly I think the organization had the mindset that they had to fill the prospect cupboard before committing to a direction. In the meantime TNSE were seeing their investment grow by leaps and bounds and had a tidy operating profit each season. They were making lots of upgrades and the fans were identifying with their favorite players. I think they saw these first few years as laying the long term foundation.

The problem now is where do we go from here? I do believe the decision making year has caught them a little flat footed. I do get the feeling they thought Ladd and Buff would sign for team friendly amounts, and all their prospects would turn out to be gold. Then the older core and a dynamic young group would blend seamlessly and boom a contender would be born. Except IMO the older core is seriously flawed and while I think Chevy drafted well and players have for the most part developed nicely not often are you going to draft a franchise player from the 9-17 slot.

So we are where we are, and I don't think I am near the Chevy fan you think I am. But I am willing to watch and see how this all plays out over the next couple months before passing judgement. Personally, I very badly want them to transition to the younger core, make a few trades for picks and prospects and try to build for the future as I see that as our only real hope.

This perfectly expresses my view on things as well.

I view the series of steps that got us to where we are as mostly (not all, but mostly) reasonable. I also acknowledge, with the power of hindsight, that different, better decisions could have been made. Not all reasonable decisions turn out to be good decisions.

I see the Jets now standing at a major crossroads, where there is an obviously correct decision (rebuild around younger core) and obviously bad decision (don't rebuild around younger core). I'm not sure how Chevy is going to play it, and this will drastically affect my judgement on his tenure as GM.

 

[surixon]

This perfectly expresses my view on things as well.

I view the series of steps that got us to where we are as mostly (not all, but mostly) reasonable. I also acknowledge, with the power of hindsight, that different, better decisions could have been made. Not all reasonable decisions turn out to be good decisions.

I see the Jets now standing at a major crossroads, where there is an obviously correct decision (rebuild around younger core) and obviously bad decision (don't rebuild around younger core). I'm not sure how Chevy is going to play it, and this will drastically affect my judgement on his tenure as GM.

This is essentially where I am at now. Chevy needs to choose a direction and I hope its to double down on the younger core.

 

[White Out 403*]

From the other thread, I didn't want to derail .

How fragile do you think players are? A lot more NHLers have spent time in the A than not. Often going back and forth. Petan has been battling obstacles his whole career and will face far bigger ones than that if he is going to be a successful NHLer.

I don't think it's purely a question of fragility. It's following a developmental curve and being patient. But yes, players can be very fragile. My favourite example is Gilbert Brule. He was ruined by terrible development and rushing him to the NHL.

But this also then poses an interesting question that I have for those who think we're doing a good job developing. If we want to follow a true draft and develop, and, have patience... why rush anyone? Why not give Lowry a few years in the A? Petan? Copp? Why should anyone of them see the NHL before they've had a chance to be a pro for a few years in our own system?

Clearly, people have patience with Chevy. So why shouldn't be show the same patience?

 

[KingBogo]

From the other thread, I didn't want to derail .



I don't think it's purely a question of fragility. It's following a developmental curve and being patient. But yes, players can be very fragile. My favourite example is Gilbert Brule. He was ruined by terrible development and rushing him to the NHL.

But this also then poses an interesting question that I have for those who think we're doing a good job developing. If we want to follow a true draft and develop, and, have patience... why rush anyone? Why not give Lowry a few years in the A? Petan? Copp? Why should anyone of them see the NHL before they've had a chance to be a pro for a few years in our own system?

Clearly, people have patience with Chevy. So why shouldn't be show the same patience?

But it certainly common for young players to go back and forth between the NHL and the A. But their is no evidence the Jets are damaging their prospects. Sure a deeper organization might have the luxury of allowing a little more time in the A, but even an organization that coined the term "over-ripen" has been bringing in prospects younger than in the past. Copp looks ready, Lowry had a bit of a set back this season but looks to have figured things out. Petan wasn't ready but IMO no damage done, maybe a benefit as he can learn from the experience. Scheifele and Trouba hit the NHL at the right time. Ehlers looks ready. Helly is more than ready. Chariot is as ready as he ever will be as is Hutch. Armia looks like a bit of a late bloomer but I like his play as of late. I expect Connor will be pushing for work sooner rather than latter and Roslovic soon after. Morrissey is developing nicely and I think will be a good one.

 

[Duke749]

Wait, are you saying Lowry is a case of not being developed properly? He spent two years in the WHL after being drafted then a year in the AHL. I would say most hockey people thought he then had a pretty good rookie year last year. He wasn't playing as well this year so was eventually sent down(could be argued that it should have been sooner), but since returning has looked pretty solid.

 

[Daximus]

Wait, are you saying Lowry is a case of not being developed properly? He spent two years in the WHL after being drafted then a year in the AHL. I would say most hockey people thought he then had a pretty good rookie year last year. He wasn't playing as well this year so was eventually sent down(could be argued that it should have been sooner), but since returning has looked pretty solid.

IMO Lowry should still be down there. He needs a bit more than 4 games.

 

[Duke749]

IMO Lowry should still be down there. He needs a bit more than 4 games.

Could be argued. How many games has he played since coming back up? I know his best game of the year came after being recalled.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

But this also then poses an interesting question that I have for those who think we're doing a good job developing. If we want to follow a true draft and develop, and, have patience... why rush anyone? Why not give Lowry a few years in the A? Petan? Copp? Why should anyone of them see the NHL before they've had a chance to be a pro for a few years in our own system?

Fair criticism.

To answer your question though, I think it was because Chevy saw us reaching contender status within the next couple seasons with the current core. If so, we needed to get some of our highly touted rookies into the mix before some of those core guys got too old. The rookies were important both because of their projected ability, as well as for their cost controlled contracts and cap management. So there was some time pressure to get rookies in as part of the team, and some NHL experience.

To fully explain this, I'll have to stray over into a discussion on Chevy and Jets' management. Even though we have a different thread for that, these things interrelate.

No doubt many will want to rip Chevy apart for the "stupidity" of this plan. I ain't gonna stop you. But what I will say is that a few factors in the collapse of the team this year might have been hard to predict. The abysmal PK for one, which has been better in the past. The perhaps less than expected performance of the rookies. Somewhat more arguably, the terrible goaltending before Hellebuyck stepped up (especially Hutch). Then there's Ladd, who was a question mark this season post-surgery.

I'm not saying Chevy expected to see a strong playoff team this year. Rather, that the Jets would show enough promise to build toward contention in the near future with this core. As of now, that looks not to be the case.

So, the bad news is we have a somewhat wasted season. The good news is that Chevy didn't mortgage away the future in any way to make this bet (other than perhaps not making some key trades earlier). And maybe we'll get a good draft pick out of the deal (which might make up for not making those trades earlier, making it an even safer bet).

Sure, we've got things to fix. We've also got some good pieces, some younger vets on good contracts, a potentially elite young goaltender, good prospects, and a **** ton of cap space to work in. I think we can turn around the fortune of this club pretty fast if we (TNSE) plays our cards right.

This is neither a pro-Chevy or anti-Chevy post. I'll save my opinion on that depending on how things unfold in the near future. Rather, it's just an honest look at where I think we stand as a club. And why we're in the situation we are this year.

Back to developing new talent - the only one who looks to have been rushed was Petan. I think Lowry and Copp are probably as far or further along than if they'd stayed in the A. We could argue about Lowry I guess.

But I do look forward to when the Moose are rockin' it, full of talented prospects looking to bust their way into a strong Jets team. Hopefully we're not that far off? If so, due to the competition and lack of open slots in the big club, guys should end up spending more time on the Moose.

 

[Daximus]

Could be argued. How many games has he played since coming back up? I know his best game of the year came after being recalled.

He had a good game against Arizona.