"Draft and Develop" or "All In": What's next for the Jets?

[Deedog99]

I think the Jets days as a cap team will be over shortly. A lot of people are not going to renew their seats and true North will operate on an internal budget which could see selling off of some higher paid guys. Just my hunch.

 

[Mathil8]

Good thread.

As for as I'm concerned we have three years left of the Scheifele/Helle on bargain deals window. If we aren't planning on contending then both should be dealt for a kings ransom and the org would need to start a rebuild. Given that the chances of that being the organizations direction are slim we need to build around this window.

A number of things need to happen to get this team back on track and not all of it is personnel.

On the personnel side we really can't afford to trade another scoring winger for another need position. We did that already with the Laine trade so that takes the core piece for core piece trade out of the picture. That leaves the future trade plus maybe a support piece like Copp trade.

I look to get a top 4 RD with size and speed. I know many don't like Ristolianen but his playing style and size profile matches up well with they type of partner that works really well with JoMo. Also you have to consider the Buffalo angle with regards to his performance. I trade Copp and a second or B prospect for him. Expiring contract for expiring contract.

With that we then add our promising young players and let them grow into roles.

JoMo Ristolinan
Samberg Pionk
Heinola DeMelo

That defense has a good collection of size, skill and puck moving. We should be able to run a very effective and robust transition with it.

Up front our problems seem to resolve around not having enough play drivers in the top 6. Right now we have Mark and Nik and when one is out of the lineup it really shows. Wheeler has just aged out as a top line forward that can drive play and Conner just can't get his overall game good enough to the point where he isn't just an elite complimentary scoring winger. We need two more top 6 play divers. I think we have both in house. While Dubois struggled this year he has shown he can drive play while scoring 60 points in Columbus. I don't believe what happened this year is indicative of the player he is and will be going forward. We also have Perfetti who has been an elite play driver at every level he has played at including the AHL this past year.

Configure a top 6 with two drivers per line and a complimentary piece per line:

Conner Scheifele Ehelers
Perfetti Dubois Wheeler

Each line should have more then enough skill to score and our defensive liabilities are spread out.

In the bottom 6 I think we need to modify our philosophy a bit. Our third line is trending towards being a big physical two way line on its own and I think adding Ves to it full time next year once he gets comfortable will give it a lethal shot. We need to ice a quicker fourth line that can get in on pucks quickly and has some offensive capabilities.

Ves Lowry Appelton
Harkins Gus fast FA signing

Even with these player changes we need to change on the coaching front:

Our top forwards have not been helped at all by this coaching staff in terms of systems that are designed based on their strengths. Add in a terrible defensive and breakout scheme and the team looks like a mess most nights. Our top 6 scores off the rush or not at all and that needs to change. We need a robust offensive scheme that can break down other teams defenses in the offensive end of the ice. No more of this conservative garbage where we can't have two forwards deep to cycle properly.

Our coaching staff needs to do their homework this year and derive and implement something that will work for this group. Maurice also needs to get out of his comfort zone and run a much more assertive scheme. This risk adverse conservative stuff doesn't work for this group. It's painfully obvious by now that this team isn't good at low event hockey.

I'm all for a retool year where we live with some rookie growing pains up front and on the back end in order to take a big step forward going forward.

I agree with everything here, just hope we can do better than Ristolainen! Is there any chance we could land Hamilton as a UFA?

 

[surixon]

I agree with everything here, just hope we can do better than Ristolainen! Is there any chance we could land Hamilton as a UFA?

I would make an offer but when was the last chance we signed a marquee FA. He will have plenty of suitors and I doubt he comes here.

 

[Daximus]

I agree with everything here, just hope we can do better than Ristolainen! Is there any chance we could land Hamilton as a UFA?

I'd say it's pretty low. We should make an offer anyways but he will have a lot of teams lining up to sign him. Most of those teams will be able to give him salary options we just can't.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

This thread is meant to be focused on what various people think the Jets need to do with the roster, based on assessment of the current quality / potential and needs. If it just devolves into "replace Chevy" or "replace all the coaches", that's a different set of questions, and there have been many other threads to focus on those topics.

This is a chance for posters to give their analysis and what decisions they would make if they were in the GM's role. I hope that's the focus. If not, might as well close it down and resurrect "Fire Chevy" and "Fire Maurice" threads.

Fine, I'll change my vote to draft and develop because there are no quick fixes for a team this flawed. Our core is a big part of the problem and we might as well accept that they can't or won't be traded away. Top tier UFA's won't come here. Our D is terrible but this team seems to make very bad choices when it comes to pro D acquisitions. I'm not even convinced that Helly is the answer in goal. He's good, but doesn't seem able to maintain a level of excellence when it's needed.

So in a framework where the GM and HC positions are out of scope, what else is there to do but be patient and allow Father Time to make the radical changes that are needed?

 

[Do or Die]

Teams were willing to play with Chevy at the deadline. But the 2 names, the other teams kept coming up with were Perfetti and Heinola. This was starting to look like a transitional year anyways, so the idea of a 1st plus one of those guys, didn't appeal to him. Somewhat understandable.

You have Wheeler, who is still an asset, but his role and usage need to be re-examined - but is Maurice the guy, willing to do that. Or is Wheels still the defacto coach?
The bottom 6 will depend a lot on Copp's status, moving forward.....might see a domino effect. Need more youth/size/speed in bottom 6.....Ves has tools. Gus should be in that mix.

Totally convinced that PLD has a nagging lower body injury. Expect a bounce back, here
Will be interesting to see where 55's head is at - given the mid-season lack lustre play, benching and suspension.
Ehlers should see the ice as much as possible, including PP

No true contender has Boo Boo, Poolman, Forbort or Benn, within 10 miles of your top parings, let alone playing 20+ Heinola and Slamberg should have open slots waiting. Given where Stanley started this year, I still have time for him.....but these other dudes, need to be given a map and directed to the nearest off-ramp.

Really have to drop this whole obsession with marginal "glue guys" who are "good in the room" Leave the baby sitters in the daycare. Or at worst....they can be "good in the press box"
Which of course goes back to Maurice. Lineups, ice time management, use of some young guys, and inability to make adjustments, were all problems this year.....

 

[jgimp]

Voted other, this team is going nowhere with PoMo as the coach. Move him, find a coach better suited to our roster and young up-uns and go from there.

 

[Al Camino]

On hand I'm inclined to blow it up. Next year they are back in a divsion with Colorado, Minnesota, St. Louis and Nashville. All had similar records playing against better teams this year. But what are they going get for their assets? Anyone worth anything is someone you need to keep ie Perfetti, Hienola, Samberg or their contracts can't be moved or they are going to have to take back equally bad contracts.

So I guess that means you see if you can retool over the summer as they only have 55,27 and 37 for 3 more years. Start with the coach and his staff. They are trash from in game adjustments, bad systems and special teams and roster management that is head scratching at best. The forward group is good enough if properly optimized but the need a proper 4th line that can acutally provide something of value instead of a paycheck to a couple of guys at the end of their career. Adding Hienola to the back will help but they need at least 2 quality puck movers. Niku might be good for a couple of brain cramps in his own end but with a decent partner he could provide more offense and puck moving than he gives up in the other end if they don't find external upgrades. Give him 35-40 games 10-12 minutes a night and see what you finally have or cut him loose and let him find another team. I mean can he be any worse that the last 30 games of Forbort or Benn for that matter? At least he'd entertaining.

If at the end of next year they are in the same place they have been since December of 2018 then you basically sell everything not bolted down for picks and draft in bulk and do a complete rebuild with a new GM and front office and hopefully a functioning analytics department.

 

[imec]

You have Wheeler, who is still an asset, but his role and usage need to be re-examined - but is Maurice the guy, willing to do that. Or is Wheels still the defacto coach?

This is a critical question IMO. Who's in charge? Is it a) Maurice? Is it b) Wheifle?

If it's a), then are we getting the most out of Wheifle? Would we get more out of them (and others) with a new coach?

If it's b), then what happens if we bring in a coach who takes control? Do we get the the whole team under control and increase their output? Does it create a situation wher Wheifle rebels and needs to be "dealt" with? How do you deal with that? Trade them? Is Wheeler tradeable?

I'm of the opinion that our problems are related to leadership - I'm just not entirely sure where the leadership is coming from however. And if it's unclear to the rest of the team - that's a recipe for disaster.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Use what we got for a couple of years until the juice is gone. I think that's the best strategy at this point. No point in rebuilding unless we have literally nothing on the blue-line.

We still have Hellebuyck, Scheifele, Wheeler, Connor, Morrissey, Ehlers, would say Dubois but something is off with him, and soon added with Heinola, Perfetti and other prospects. Which should keep us at the very worst flirting with a Wild Card spot for many years to come.

I know Connor Bedard/Shane Wright is exciting, but no point in tanking, really.

 

[Whileee]

I think Chevy probably could have outbid Tampa for Savard. But it likely would have been a hard to swallow move even for the most optimistic of posters here.

I think Savard would be an improvement on Poolman, but I really don't think he's the answer. The Jets need a D or two that would actually be the better D on a pairing with Morrissey and/or Pionk to give the Jets a bona fide top pairing, and a strong 2nd pairing. For example, an "all in" short term move might be trading a 1st and a good prospect for Ekholm, to pair with Pionk. Or maybe the Jets need to put a big enough offer together to go after Dumba. They might even be able to free up trade capital to go after both of them, if they want to optimize this contending window.

As an example...

Trade 1: 2021 1st (#18 overall) + Samberg + another pick / prospect for Ekholm.
Trade 2: Copp + Vesalainen + 2nd for Dumba.

You fill in the forwards with some UFA acquisitions, like Coleman, Armia, Cizikas, etc. and end up with a line-up that looks more like this...

Cap would be tight, and the Jets would probably have to sign Pionk short-term to keep the cap hit low (around $5M).

Another option is acquire Dumba and trade Pionk at a time when his value is very high. I would consider trading Morrissey, but I'm not sure he has much trade value considering his contract and recent performance.

 

[Whileee]

This is a critical question IMO. Who's in charge? Is it a) Maurice? Is it b) Wheifle?

If it's a), then are we getting the most out of Wheifle? Would we get more out of them (and others) with a new coach?

If it's b), then what happens if we bring in a coach who takes control? Do we get the the whole team under control and increase their output? Does it create a situation wher Wheifle rebels and needs to be "dealt" with? How do you deal with that? Trade them? Is Wheeler tradeable?

I'm of the opinion that our problems are related to leadership - I'm just not entirely sure where the leadership is coming from however. And if it's unclear to the rest of the team - that's a recipe for disaster.

This is completely off topic. The point of the thread is to focus on what you think the Jets should do, not who you think makes decisions for the organization.

 

[imec]

This is completely off topic. The point of the thread is to focus on what you think the Jets should do, not who you think makes decisions for the organization.

Sorry, I disagree. The question is germane to what the jets do (if anything) with regard to coaching and leadership.

 

[StumpyTown]

I don't think the Jets can do the all in approach like the big market teams. In the last few seasons the best we could get to load up was Stastny (which was great)
The Jets and their small market won't be able to attract big name free agents and a lot of those "all-in" rentals have NMC that would include Winnipeg on their lists.
For the Jets to win they have to draft and develop, hit some home runs and fill out some of the supporting cast like they did with Stastny.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Sorry, I disagree. The question is germane to what the jets do (if anything) with regard to coaching and leadership.

There is a coaching thread to discuss things of this nature

 

[surixon]

I think Savard would be an improvement on Poolman, but I really don't think he's the answer. The Jets need a D or two that would actually be the better D on a pairing with Morrissey and/or Pionk to give the Jets a bona fide top pairing, and a strong 2nd pairing. For example, an "all in" short term move might be trading a 1st and a good prospect for Ekholm, to pair with Pionk. Or maybe the Jets need to put a big enough offer together to go after Dumba. They might even be able to free up trade capital to go after both of them, if they want to optimize this contending window.

As an example...

Trade 1: 2021 1st (#18 overall) + Samberg + another pick / prospect for Ekholm.
Trade 2: Copp + Vesalainen + 2nd for Dumba.

You fill in the forwards with some UFA acquisitions, like Coleman, Armia, Cizikas, etc. and end up with a line-up that looks more like this...

View attachment 444553

Cap would be tight, and the Jets would probably have to sign Pionk short-term to keep the cap hit low (around $5M).

Another option is acquire Dumba and trade Pionk at a time when his value is very high. I would consider trading Morrissey, but I'm not sure he has much trade value considering his contract and recent performance.

I dont mind the players targeted but you are giving up an awful lot of futures for players that have minimal term left on their deals. Ekholm may only be a one year rental and we are giving up a couple of A future assets for him. I am personally done with the pay big assets for rental pieces.

I'd be willing to do Copp and a 1st for Dumba though.

 

[DannyGallivan]

I think we've had the horses for awhile, and when you consider the likes of Perfetti, Heinola, Samberg, Chishom and Gustaffson, we have guys on the way as well. So I really don't want to move a lot of players... however, I do want to move a lot of the coaching staff.

Dave Lowry can stay. The rest... buh-bye.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don’t think gutting the prospect pool is smart, but one of Heinola/Samberg/Stanley can go in a deal, with at least one needing to blossom into a solid ELC contributor. Perfetti will come in this year/next and will need to do the same.

I’ve been really disappointed with Kyle Connor the last two playoffs, but don’t expect any changes with 55/26/81/27 at this point. Also think PLD needs surgery and hopefully we can see his true potential in the fall.

Only way we get over this hump is finding a top pairing dman to push everybody down one spot. At this point I wonder if we’re too focused on a RHD and would instead benefit from a solid LHD to pair with Pionk on the top pairing and bump Morrissey to second pair with DeMelo.

Top pairing D on either side would do about equally well. I lean a bit toward getting a RHD, but a good lefty would get the job done.

 

[Daximus]

I think Savard would be an improvement on Poolman, but I really don't think he's the answer. The Jets need a D or two that would actually be the better D on a pairing with Morrissey and/or Pionk to give the Jets a bona fide top pairing, and a strong 2nd pairing. For example, an "all in" short term move might be trading a 1st and a good prospect for Ekholm, to pair with Pionk. Or maybe the Jets need to put a big enough offer together to go after Dumba. They might even be able to free up trade capital to go after both of them, if they want to optimize this contending window.

As an example...

Trade 1: 2021 1st (#18 overall) + Samberg + another pick / prospect for Ekholm.
Trade 2: Copp + Vesalainen + 2nd for Dumba.

You fill in the forwards with some UFA acquisitions, like Coleman, Armia, Cizikas, etc. and end up with a line-up that looks more like this...

View attachment 444553

Cap would be tight, and the Jets would probably have to sign Pionk short-term to keep the cap hit low (around $5M).

Another option is acquire Dumba and trade Pionk at a time when his value is very high. I would consider trading Morrissey, but I'm not sure he has much trade value considering his contract and recent performance.

We can still get some relief from Little which allows us to go a little deeper on some contracts for the time being. Those are some big moves and we would have to navigate the expansion draft really well as well as try and capitalize on what Seattle gets. This summer is a big one for Chevy. Will he make moves to help the core or will he sit on his hands. He's been a pretty damn good GM when it comes to drafting talent but is he aggressive enough to give this roster a shot at contending in the central?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Minimum of three years left on the Scheifele / Ehlers / Hellebuyck / Connor "bargain" contracts. That's the window.

I voted for the "blockbuster trade to improve the D right now" option. I still think our inability to generate offence as well as defend against any kind of cycle can be traced back to the personnel on the blue line. Dates back to Byfuglien retiring, which means we've had 2 full years to fix it.

I expect a lot of D to change hands because of Seattle expansion. No excuse not to be aggressive here. Other than maybe Perfetti, no one should be off the table.

Would also add the "fire the coaching staff" option to this if I could. I've defended Maurice on a lot of the common criticisms (line blended, playing the vets, etc) but it's time for a change, even if it's "change for change's sake"

Don't know why you would say that Perfetti is off the table, especially when everyone else is on it.

Much as I like Perfetti and would love to keep him, our need for D outweighs our need for F. Not that there won't be a spot for Perfetti as soon as next year, but it is easier to fill a LW hole than it is to fill a top pair D hole.

You have to give to get and he is a valuable piece. If he is what it takes to get what we need, I move him in a heartbeat - for the right return.

 

[Daximus]

Top pairing D on either side would do about equally well. I lean a bit toward getting a RHD, but a good lefty would get the job done.

I think both would be ideal.

High end physical player with a good first pass for Pionk and a solid puck rusher to go with Morrissey. Put Stanley with DeMelo as they worked well together and that is a pretty stable defence. Cycle in some depth guys against weaker teams to keep the core rested and I think we are a contender.

 

[Heldig]

I think they made there blockbuster with the Dubois/Laine trade

A lot will depend on what happens during the Expansion draft. Seattle has a chance to make or break a lot of teams.

They could potentially make some kind of deal with Seattle for a D man.

What is Copp going to ask for?
Who are they going to protect in the expansion draft?
Who do they feel is ready for full time NHL minutes from their young D?
Who are they going to try and bring back from their UFA crop?

Can this team contend? I think they can but they sure as hell need some help on the blue line.
If they can bring back Perrault and Stastny cheaper that would be great. I think instead of "Vet" 4th line they need to bring in Gus/Vesa. Is Perffetti ready for prime time minutes?

Agree.

Depending on what happens with Copp and the Kraken draft, a few tweaks are needed and I think they have the pieces to improve the roster.

Biggest change needs to be the coaching staff (broken record from me).

 

[Heldig]

I would make an offer but when was the last chance we signed a marquee FA. He will have plenty of suitors and I doubt he comes here.

Cant see Hamilton choosing Winnipeg. IF he comes to Canada I expect it will be Toronto.

 

[Orrrules]

All Chevy had to do was add a top 4 D and a top 6 RW at the TD and this team would win the division. Now we are heading back to a division that is death valley. The window is gone and no matter what moves are made in the next 3 years we won't get out. This year was the last kick at the can for this core and Chevy blew it.

 

[Daximus]

Cant see Hamilton choosing Winnipeg. IF he comes to Canada I expect it will be Toronto.

Yeah they have the ability to give him a front loaded contract with mostly signing bonus'. But that mean Marner is likely on his way out. Is that a tire we want to kick? Comes cheap in actual money but cap hit is a dozy.